Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday June, 28

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

When the Indians and Orioles open a four-game series in Baltimore Thursday evening the Birds will send Wei-Yin Chen to the mound against Zach McAllister and the Tribe. McAllister, who will be making his start in over month, will be looking for his first road team start win in his MLB career after failing in each of his only two efforts. Meanwhile, Chen's home ERA (3.54) is two and a half runs better than his road ERA (6.05) this season. With that look for the Indians to fall to 6-15 against the A.L. East, including 0-7 the last seven, here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays fit a nice system here tonight that plays on home favorites off a 1 run road favored loss and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs. These home teams have won 10 of the last 12. Tampa Bay is also a solid 26-3 when favored by -120 or higher if their starting pitcher is on normal rest and they lost his last start by 1 run and they scored 3 or more runs in that loss. Tampa has won 10 of 13 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. Detroit scored 9 runs in Texas and still lost by 4 runs. Today we note that have dropped 15 of 22 when the total is 8 to 8.5. Scherzer makes the start for Detroit and he has lost all 5 team starts vs Tampa and has a 5.01 road era. His counter Part J. Shields has a 3.72 home era and Tampa has won 7 of his 8 starts vs Detroit. Look for Tampa Bay to take the Opener.

Ben Burns

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners

Anytime you can get Felix Hernandez in the pick'em range, or as a home underdog, the Mariners are worth a look. One of the best pitchers of this era, Hernandez has a 2.52 ERA in seven home starts this season. For his career, he's 46-32 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 108 starts here in the Pacific Northwest.

Hernandez is also 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA vs. the Red Sox. The M's are 7-4 when he's taken the mound in this series, most recently a 5-4 win here (as +130 underdogs vs. Beckett) last August.

Additionally, King Felix is now 19-7 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for his career, when pitching in the month of June. Last time out, he allowed one run in seven innings, striking out 10, en route to a 5-1 victory. He didn't factor in the decision in his previous start but again allowed only one run in seven innings.

Morales has made just two starts this season. Primarily a reliever, he's 9-13 with a 4.37 ERA for his career and that ERA climbs all the way to 4.73 when he pitches on the road. Clearly not in the class of an elite starter like Hernandez. Consider Seattle.

Jesse Schule

Reds @ Giants
PICK: Under

Just about the time the Reds would normally be going to bed, they will open a four game set against the Giants out on the West Coast. The normally high flying reds are coming off four straight games that have seen the total at seven runs or fewer. Chances are, runs are going to be hard to come by for their opponents tonight, as they send Johnny Ceuto to the hill.

Ceuto (9-3, 2.21 ERA) is coming off a very solid outing, going seven strong innings, allowing no runs and striking out nine, in a 6-0 win over the Twins. He has won four straight starts, allowing just five earned runs in over 30 innings. The kayaks at McCovey Cove won't likely see any offerings from Ceuto here today.

The Giants will send Madison Bumgarner to the mound tonight, looking to rebound from a tough outing. Bumgarner (9-4, 3.10 ERA) got rocked for 11 hits, although he limited the damage to just four earned runs, and got a win in 9-8 slugfest with Oakland. Bumgarner is having himself a solid season, and he has allowed two or fewer runs in half of his last ten starts. He goes deep into ballgames most of the time, without a single exit prior to the sixth inning in any of his last ten outings.

We will look for two very capable pitchers to battle it out in this one, with runs at a premium, we will lean towards the under.

Chris Elliott

Reds @ Giants
PICK: Giants

The Cincinnati Reds (41-33) will send right hander Johnny Cueto to the hill for Thursdays evening game against the San Francisco Giants (43-33). Cueto has been excellent for the Reds this season with a record of 9-3, a miniscule 2.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .243 BAA. In his last five starts he has allowed 7 runs in 37.2 innings for an ERA of 1.67. Cincinnati is 2-1 in 3 career Cueto starts against the San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco will counter with lefty Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner has been a rock all season with a record of 9-4, an ERA of 3.10, WHIP of 1.12, and BAA of .242. In his previous 5 home starts he has given up 9 runs in 37.2 innings for an ERA of 2.15. The Giants are 9-1 in the last 10 Bumgarner home starts.

Cincinnati sits first in the NL Central division with a slim 2.0 game lead over the Cardinals and the Pirates. They are 5-5 in their last 10 trips to San Francisco and 4-6 in their last 10 overall. Their big hitters have struggled over the past week and it should be a tough assignment for them to get back on track in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. Expect the big left handed bats of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce to have trouble against the excellent left hander in this one.

The Reds are 13-11 in June, 22-23 in night games and 4-8 on the road with the moneyline -100 to -125.

The Giants are 15-9 in June, 22-20 in night games and 17-11 at home with the total at 7 or less.

This game has the making of a pitching duel of 2 likely NL All Stars. The Giants have proven they are tough to beat at home in close, low scoring affairs. With a record of 23-14 at home with Bumgarner on the hill, take the Giants to "Win"!

Freddy Wills

Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Detroit Tigers

Max Scherzer is anything but ordinary or lucky. A funny fact is that Scherzer has two different colored eyes. If you think that is weird how about the fact that he is averaging 11.42 K/9 and nobody is talking about him as an elite pitcher because of his ERA. However, he's been extremely unlucky with opponents posting a .366 BABIP. His ERA is starting to come back down considering he has posted a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts. His xFIP at 3.18 is a better indication on what you should expect from him and the Rays should have plenty of trouble as they are top 10 members of the strikeout club and top 5 in June where they are 29th with a .633 overall OPS. They truly miss Evan Longoria, but Scherzer really does not even need that benefit as he has held the Rays to a .523 OPS and a .119 average despite going 0-3 in his career against them. Again just some bad luck which is about to turn on Thursday.

Speaking of bad luck, James Shields was our poster boy for bad luck over the last few weeks, but getting beat a few times by his team creating errors and his bullpen not supporting him we decided to give that plea up. Tiger hitters post a combined .837 OPS against him with Cabrera and Peralta a combined 19-41. The Tigers have not been exactly raking the ball, but compared to the Rays they should have the advantage. After all the Tigers are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between the two clubs.

Notable Hot Starters:
A.J. Burnett (3-0, 1.10 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Edwin Jackson (2-1, 1.08 WHIP, 2.21 ERA)
Yai-Wen Chen (2-1, 1.36 WHIP, 2.95 ERA)
James Shields (1-2, 1.32 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Johny Cueto (3-0, 0.74 WHIP, 0.78 ERA)
Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.02 WHIP, 2.49 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Josh Outman of the Colorado Rockies. You may be scratching your head since he goes up against a very good Nationals team and a fellow hot pitcher in Edwin Jackson. However, Jackson has struggled against the Rockies who have a 1.096 OPS against him in 90 career at bats. Also Outman's 8.64 ERA is no indication on how well he's pitched considering his xFIP being at 3.46.

Notable Cold Starters:
Kyle Kendrick (1-2, 2.02 WHIP, 8.16 ERA)
Jair Jurrjens (2-1, 1.70 WHIP, 6.14 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

Stunning return off the DL for Jair Jurrjens, but I'm not ready to buy on the Atlanta righty. I like rookies debuting and I'm going to try highly touted Trevor Bauer and the Diamondbacks tonight.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh is battling the Reds for first place and A.J. Burnett has been a strong addition, with an 8-2 record and a 3.24 ERA. The National League sure suits him. His last three starts he's 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Underachieving Philadelphia has home field but everything has been going wrong. Starter Kyle Kendrick (2-7, 5.24 ERA) has been awful and in his last three starts he's 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA. The Pirates are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record while the Phillies are 7-20 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Pirates.

SPORTS WAGERS

Germany -108 over Italy

Italy coach Cesare Prandelli has his hands full trying to field a strong starting line-up for today’s semi-final with the likes of Daniele De Rossi, Giorgio Chiellini and Antonio Cassano all doubtful. On top of the injury woes, Italy has had two days' less rest than Germany. The Germans have no such concerns and actually rested their entire starting forward line last game versus Greece where they netted four goals from four different players. Resting comfortably on the sidelines were first string forwards Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller. Italy has quality players and have one the better field generals in Andrea Pirlo. Against England, the Italians had time and space to control the game as England posed little threat offensively. Against this rested juggernaut, the Italians will be in full retreat for the majority of the contest. Play: Germany (Risking 2 units).

Stephen Nover

Boston Red Sox +100

The marketplace has been active early on this matchup backing Boston. I forsee more market activity where it wouldn't shock me to find the Red Sox closing as the favorite. There is value in taking Boston now.

The oddsmaker had a wrong perception about Felix Hernandez in opening the Mariners as the favorite. Hernandez is just 19-19 during the past two seasons. His ERA during this span is 3.44. That's a respectable number. But it's not a King Felix type of number.

Hernandez has pitched well during his last two starts. Keep in mind, though, those outings were against the Giants and Padres. The Mariners aren't good enough to be annointed a favorite against a hot AL East club unless they have a huge pitching matchup edge going.

I don't see that here. Boston starter Franklin Morales is pitching his finest ball having allowed just two earned runs during each of his past two starts, while posting an insane 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Red Sox are playing excellent ball, too, winning nine of their last 11. They are averaging 7.4 runs in their last 10 games. Seattle, once again, is playing poorly having dropped 12 of its past 17.

Note, too, that Boston has won seven of its last nine games against Seattle.

Matt Fargo

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Braves have taken the first two games of this series and they go for the clean sweep tonight. Atlanta came in on a 1-6 run at home but the two victories got it back to .500 for the year at Turner Field. The Braves need to keep the momentum going as it hosts Washington for an important three-game series over the weekend. The bats have come alive for 14 runs in the first two games and going back to last season the Braves are 51-23 in their last 74 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150.

The Diamondbacks had a great homestand prior to this series but their road struggles continue as they have dropped four in a row on the highway and have scored just five runs in the process. The offense has been an issue on the road all season as Arizona is hitting .243 including just .228 against right-handed pitching. The starting pitching has struggled of late with a 5.67 ERA over the last 10 games and the Diamondbacks are 8-21 in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record.

Atlanta sends Jair Jurrjens to the mound for his second start since getting recalled from the minors. He made four starts early in the season and he was horrible with a 9.37 ERA and was demoted. His velocity was way down and the issue was weakness in his surgically repaired right knee. He strengthened it in the minors and his first start since showed it as he allowed just one run on three hits in 7.2 innings at Boston and his velocity was again back. The Braves are 21-6 in his last 27 home starts.

The Diamondbacks will be getting their first look at Trevor Bauer as he is making his Major League debut on Thursday. He was the third pick in the 2011 draft out of UCLA and he is a flamethrower that resembles Tim Lincecum with his unorthodox release. He tore up the minors by going 11-1 with 116 strikeouts but he also issued 48 walks so his control could be an issue, especially with the nerves of a first ever start. The Braves are 4-1 in their last five games against right-handed starters.

Frank Jordan

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a battle of Pennsylvania Philadelphia won the first two games and despite a boost yesterday as Chase Utley came back and hit a home run Pittsburgh got the win. Pittsburgh is looking to earn the split with their best pitcher on the mound in AJ Burnett who has 8 wins vs just two losses on the year. Burnett dropped two of his first three starts but since Pittsburgh has won 9 in a row when he starts and Burnett got the win in seven of those. Also in those starts Burnett gave up three or fewer runs in each start including zero three times. Look for Burnett help the Pirates get that split as Burnett throws a gem. Play Pittsburgh

Bryan Power

Athletics @ Rangers
Pick: Athletics +1.5

I actually feel the A's have a great shot tonight against first place Texas and Scott Feldman. That's why I'll take them on the run line here. The team has been playing much better in the month of June, winning 11 of its last 15. Starting pitching has been a major key in that run (1.73 ERA last 13 games) and Oakland pitching really held the Rangers in check when these teams met earlier this month. Texas scored just eight times in the four game series, scoring 1 run or less in three of those games. The Rangers batted just .189 overall in the series, which would have been worse had they not scored six runs in their lone victory.

Oakland might also be worth a shot on the money line here considering a 7-2 YTD mark as an underdog of +150 or higher! They go against Scott Feldman, who is definitely the weak link in the Texas rotation. Feldman has a 6.43 ERA in eight starts so far with the Rangers losing six of those games. One of the wins came against a bad San Diego team.

Texas needed its offense to carry them last night, beating Detroit 13-9, a game I played the Rangers. As illustrated above, runs will be tougher to come by in this series and with Texas just 9-15 after allowing 9 or more runs, I'm taking the A's on the run line!

Dave Essler

Houston Astros-110

I'll take the Astros at home against almost any right-handed pitcher, and I'll fade the Padres against almost any right handed pitcher. San Diego is just 6-19 this season against left-handed starters, and you'v got a Houston team that's five games over .500 at home. I do get that Altuve may well be out tonight, but this is Andrew Cashner, not Andrew Petitte we're talking about. Cashner's coming from the bullpen where he's rarely pitched more than two innings, and he's coming back up from DOUBLE A ball. He has struck out more batters than innings pitched, but by the same token he's walked too many for my liking. In this ballpark, where even Keuchel is capable of hitting one over the fence, that can be a problem.

Dallas Keuchel is also a bit of an unknown quantity, but if he can shut down the Indians and hold the Rangers (in Arlington) to only one run in five innings, I'll take my chances that he can keep the ball in the park (he is, when he's right, a groundball pitcher) against the Padres, who homer against LHP about once every 74 at bats.

The Padres pen has been pretty decent the last week, but I will go with the season-long 4.55 ERA on the road they have, because again, with Cashner we should see more of the pen rather than less. And the Padres recent successes out of then pen have come against Seattle and Houston, two teams that aren't going to test that pen as much as some others might. Only allowing two hits and losing last night has got to also have a lingering effect on the Padres, and conversely a positive one on the Astros as they look to win their third straight.