SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +118 over ATLANTA
Jair Jurrjens tossed a strong game in his first start since April 23 in his last time out. It was his best outing this year but considering how poorly he pitched in April and at the end of last year, he's still a risk when spotting a price. Jurrjens has always had average skills with a fly-ball bias profile, an average strikeout rate and a xERA that has always been higher than his actual one. Now he’s having control issues with 11 walks (and 12 K’s) in 24 innings. With oblique and knee issues nagging at Jurrjens and his below average profile, he’s a pitcher we’d prefer to avoid. Trevor Bauer will be making his much anticipated MLB debut. He’s one of the premier prospects in baseball that posted an 11-1 record with a 2.23 ERA through two minor-league levels this season. He was selected as the #3 overall pick in the ’11 draft and he projects as a true #1 starter in the big leagues. With a plus fastball that features electric life, a wipe-out curveball that dominated minor league hitters, a solid slider and excellent change-up, he has weapons at his disposal. Not only does he toy with hitters, but he gets them to swing and miss at ease. His minor league numbers are off the charts and there is no debating that he has star-level stuff. He should rack up plenty of strikeouts immediately and is likely to be at the front-end of this rotation by next season. Despite his inexperience at this level, he’s the better option here taking back a tag. Play: Arizona +118 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh -108 over PHILADELPHIA
1:05 PM. The oddsmakers are sharp. In a horrible slump, they made the Marlins a -130 favorite over the red-hot Cardinals yesterday and sure enough, the Fish pulled off a 5-3 win. One would have to go deep into the archives to find the last time the Pirates were favored in Philadelphia. The fact that they are should not be ignored. Strip away a 2.2 IP, 12 ER start at Busch Stadium in April and A. J. Burnett would be among the top starters in the game. Burnett's skills have been outstanding with a 57% groundball rate and an xERA of 3.39. He’s 8-2 so far and deserved every win he recorded. With his performance so far, Burnett is turning the clock back to his days in South Florida and his early years in Toronto. Kyle Kendrick has the make-up up a pitcher that could implode during any start. His low strikeout rate combined with a sub-50% groundball rate is a profile that spells trouble. Kendrick has already has his fair share of trouble this season and little optimism is offered going forward. Oddsmakers share the same sentiment and we’re not about to overlook it. Play: Pittsburgh -108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Detroit +118 over TAMPA BAY
Getting swept by the Royals, the team with the worst pitching staff in the AL and second worst in the entire league, speaks volumes about how this Tampa Bay team is laboring right now. The Rays offense has often struggled at home this season and lately their bats have struggled everywhere (.213/.288/.317 since May 26). They scored six runs in a three-game set in Kansas City and made Everett Teaford, Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar look like Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. With Evan Longoria and Matt Joyce on the rack, not one player is to be feared in this Rays lineup. The Tigers have many to be feared. Their offense had a bad spell recently, scoring only eight runs over a five-game stretch June 20-24 but before that Detroit was on a month-long spree, scoring nearly five runs per game, while posting an .802 OPS. They also scored 22 runs in their past three games. With Max Scherzer and James Shields being near equals over the past month, we’ll wash the starting pitchers and lean heavily to the superior offense in deciding this one. Play: Detroit +118 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Boyd
Houston Astros -112
We'll fade the Padres here given their struggles on the road and against left-handed pitching. They are 11-25 on the road and 6-19 against southpaw starters this season. Houston has won 4 of its last 5 and is a solid 23-18 at home this season. It figures to be in good hands with Dallas Keuchel, who has pitched well in his first two starts going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.071 WHIP. It will also be to Keuchel's benefit that the Padres have never seen him. The Astros have more experience against Andrew Cashner, who is 2-1 with a 5.79 ERA in eight relief appearances against Houston. The Astros are 12-3 in their last 15 games as a home favorite and we'll take them in the role at a nice price today.
Bryan Leonard
LA Angels -115
Angels are playing great ball right now and Dan Haren has pitched much better than his record would indicate. LA went off offensively yesterday and they have all the offensive parts to keep this streak going. The pitching has been outstanding for the Angels also and they have a very deep farm system which is loaded with arms.The same cannot be said of the Blue Jays who are suffering through massive injuries in the rotation. They have had to send out retreads like Aaron Laffey and tonight's starter Brett Cecil. Toronto is still a good hitting team but the pitching staff has been devastated. The Angels are the play here as we look for the visitor to have a big offensive day.
ANTHONY REDD
31-21-1 run with my comp plays following Wednesday's winner on the Angels over Baltimore.
For Thursday's play, I expect Washington to roll to its third straight win at Colorado. The Nationals, who sport the major's third best overall record, have pounded out 35 hits while winning the past two days by scores of 11-5 and 12-5. Those victories have left the Rockies in a 4-16 slump that includes a 1-8 slide at Coors Field.
Washington, on a 9-3 road run, is hitting on all cylinders right now with rookie Tyler Moore batting .455 since his recall from the minors three weeks ago and Jordan Zimmerman going 8-for-17 with six RBI's in the last four games. The Nats' recent offensive outburst followed a stretch of four games where they managed just seven runs total.
The Nationals turn to Edwin Jackson, who is 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in June and carries a 2.61 road ERA into the contest. He faces Josh Outman, making his sixth start of the season for a terrible Colorado pitching staff whose starters are 0-14 with a combined 9.42 ERA over the last 20 games (16 of which have been losses). Outman has done his share to contribute to that dreadful record by recording a 10.06 ERA in his last four starts.
Outman, like all the Colorado starters, is on a 75-pitch count. Considering how poorly the bullpen has pitched and how well the Nationals are playing, laying around -150 with Washington is a steal.
3♦ WASHINGTON
SCOTT DELANEY
My free pick run is at 6-3 now, and tonight I look to improve to 70 percent wins over a 10-day span, as I side with the Washington Nationals in Denver, against the Colorado Rockies. And even though I won't list pitchers - the Nationals are beating the hell out of the ball right now - I will tell you we're at an advantage with Josh Outman up for the Rox.
Seriously, when you have a guy who is 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA on the season, and coming in off a disappointing loss, it's scary to think he has to face a lineup that has won the last two nights by a combined final of 23-10 (12-5 and 11-5).
Though their early-season surge has tailed off a bit, the Nationals are clinging to their National League East lead, up on second-place Atlanta by 3-1/2 games and the third-place New York Mets by 4-1/2 games.
They've won 11 of 18 overall and are an impressive 23-16 on the road this season.
They're handing the ball to Edwin Jackson, and though he comes in after a rather inspiring outing - one in which he took a perfect game into the fifth inning of his last start, on Saturday - he's still just 4-4 this season, and I wouldn't necessarily trust him just yet. If he were to get scratched, I wouldn't mind. If he goes, so be it - he has an ERA of 2.91 this season.
I just want the Nats straight-up, as their offense is clicking right now.
3♦ WASHINGTON
MATT RIVERS
Another comp play winner on Wednesday as the Mets come through with ease.
That is 7 straight free play winners.
Tonight's free play is the Atlanta Braves to complete their sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Atlanta is now 8-1 the last 9 times they have faced Arizona.
The Braves are also on a solid 5-2 run their last 7 games overall. Included is a win by starter Jair Jurrjens who made his return to the big club by limiting the tough Boston Red Sox attack to just one run in 7-plus innings last week at Fenway Park.
Arizona is on a four-game road losing streak, and they are just 2-6 overall their past 8 away from home. I don't think those numbers will improve tonight, as they give Trevor Bauer the ball for the first time in his career.
Atlanta knows that Washington is beating up on Colorado, so don't look for the Braves to slip up at home against the road-challenged Snakes.
Braves to get out the broom.
4♦ ATLANTA
JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie is the Giants at home over the Reds.
Battle of first place teams opens tonight, and right now the San Francisco pitching staff is way too hot to go against. Three straight shutouts of the Dodgers as the Giants have pulled into a first place tie in the N.L. West.
Madison Bumgarner is looking for win #10 tonight, and the southpaw has pitched his best baseball this year at home, going 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA. Bumgarner is on a 4-0 run his last five starts and will match pitches with the sizzling Johnny Cueto.
Cueto sports a four game winning streak of his own, as he is also looking for his 10th win of the first half. Cueto has allowed just two runs his last 23 innings pitched.
Problem is, Cincy is on a 3-6 slide their last nine games.
This home stand is shaping up to be a memorable one for the Giants, and I am not about to buck their streak right now.
Giants the free play for Thursday.
5♦ SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Predictions
Baltimore Orioles -136
Neither of these two teams who are still right in the thick of a mid-season playoff picture have been playing well as of late. The Cleveland Indians have lost 5 straight games, which includes being swept by the Yankees and losing 2 of 3 to Houston. Baltimore is coming off of a two game sweep from Los Angeles which includes a 13-1 loss last night and have now lost 6 of 8. Cleveland sits at 37-37 and 17-19 on the road, while the Orioles are a better 41-33 and 21-17 at home. The Indians will turn to Zach McAllister who is coming up from Triple A to make his first start in the Majors in over a month. McAllister is 1-1 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .255 opponents batting average over his 4 starts. Baltimore will send lefty Wei-Yin Chen to the mound who has been solid all year. Chen is 7-3 in his rookie year with a 3.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .258 opponents batting average. In his last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA. The Indians should have troubles hitting Chen tonight as they are hitting just .213 as a team against lefties. Take note that the Indians are 7-20 in their last 27 games vs a left handed starter, and are 7-21 in their last 28 road games vs a team with a winning record. They are also just 6-13 overall vs a team with a winning record, 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog, and 0-6 in their last 6 vs AL East opponents. The Orioles are 5-1 in their last 6 as a home favorite, 16-5 in their last 21 vs AL Central opponents, and 7-3 in their last 10 home games. They are also 9-4 in Chen's last 13 starts. Tonight we have an average road team who has lost 5 straight and who struggles against left handed starters facing a tough lefty starter and a team that plays well at home. I like Baltimore to win tonight and will lay a little bit of chalk on them with confidence.
Steve Janus
White Sox/Yankees OVER 10
I'll take my chances on the White Sox and Yankees putting up a big number tonight. Chicago is coming off a 12-5 win at Minnesota on Wednesday, a game in which they had a ridiculous 21 hits. The Yankees won 5-4 against Cleveland, and have now scored at least 5 runs in each of their last four games.
What really makes me like the OVER is the pitching matchup. The White Sox will send out Dylan Axelrod, who has a 5.59 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in two starts. Not exactly the kind of numbers you want going into hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium with the way New York is swinging the bats.
The Yankees will counter with Ivan Nova. While Nova has an impressive 9-2 record, he has a 5.35 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts at home. A lot of people will look at Nova's 1.33 ERA over his L3 starts, but all three of those starts came on the road.
Another factor you have to take into consideration is the heat wave that has taken over pretty much the entire country. The high is suppose to be 90 degrees in New York today. There's no denying the fact that the baseball goes a lot farther when it's this hot out and when you combine that with the way the ball flies out of Yankee stadium, you get a lot of runs.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -117
The Diamondbacks are 1-8 in the last 9 meetings with the Braves and 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Expect their struggles with the Braves to continue this evening. Trevor Bauer is a promising young prospect, but I'm siding with a proven veteran in Jair Jurrjens. The Braves are 21-6 in his last 27 home starts. We'll back the Braves.
Jack Jones
Cincinnati Reds +115
The Cincinnati Reds are showing solid value as an underdog to the San Francisco Giants tonight. The Giants are in a huge letdown spot here after sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers over the past three days, which are their biggest rivals.
Johnny Cueto may be the most underrated starter in the league. He is 9-3 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in his last three outings. He should certainly get consideration for the NL Cy Young award at this point.
Madison Bumgarner has pitched well for the Giants too, but he hasn't put up as good of numbers as Cueto. Bumgarner has never beaten the Reds, going 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA and 1.902 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Cueto is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in three career starts against San Francisco.
The Giants are 1-8 against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games this season. Cueto is 9-1 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Reds are 21-7 in Cueto's last 28 starts overall. The Giants are 1-5 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Cincinnati Thursday.
Vegas Experts
San Diego at Houston
Play: Under
Good value with the Under here, as both the Padres and Astros lineups own some of the worst numbers in the league, and after two relatively high-scoring games we are getting a good line of 8.5 runs tonight. SD's Richard owns a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts while Houston's Harrell owns a 2.48 ERA at home and is coming off a one run in seven inning outing his last time out. Pitching rules and this one stays low-scoring.