SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Diego (24-16) at L.A. Dodgers (22-18)
Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw (3-2, 3.55 ERA) looks to dominate the Padres for the second time in five days when he takes mound for against Kevin Correia (4-3, 4.35) in the finale of a brief two-game series between N.L. West rivals at Dodger Stadium.
The Padres put a halt to L.A.’s nine-game winning streak – which included three wins in San Diego last weekend – by rolling to a 10-5 victory on Wednesday, as first baseman Adrian Gonzalez snapped out of his slump by going 3-for-5 with a homer and six RBIs. Although the Padres are just 2-4 in their last six overall, they’ve won eight of nine on the highway. Additionally, Bud Black’s squad is on positive runs of 21-8 against winning teams, 21-6 in the second game of a series, 7-2 versus left-handed starters and 5-1 as an underdog.
Despite last night’s setback the Dodgers, are still 14-4 in their last 18 games, but they’re once again two games behind San Diego in the N.L. West race. Los Angeles is 12-7 at Dodger Stadium, including 5-2 in the last seven. Joe Torre’s troops are on additional surges of 56-27 versus the N.L. West, 11-2 against right-handed starters, 61-31 at home against righty starters, 20-9 in the second game of a series and 10-3 on Thursday.
The visitor has now taken all four meetings in this rivalry in 2010, as Los Angeles went to San Diego last weekend and scored victories of 4-3, 4-1 and 1-0, winning the latter contest on Sunday despite managing just two hits. The Dodgers are 11-7 in the last 18 head-to-head matchups with the Padres and 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Hollywood.
Correia gave up four runs on five hits and two walks in 5 1/3 innings in Saturday’s 4-1 loss to Kershaw and the Dodgers. It was the fifth time in the right-hander’s last six starts that he failed to get out of the sixth inning, and he’s lost back-to-back games following a four-game winning streak.
San Diego is 8-1 in Correia’s last nine starts on the road, where he’s 2-1 despite a 5.40 ERA this season. Also, behind the right-hander, the Padres are on upticks 9-4 as an underdog, 7-1 as a road ‘dog and 11-5 against winning teams, but they’ve dropped four of his last five starts against the N.L. West. With Saturday’s loss to L.A., Correia is now 4-2 with a 4.52 ERA in 22 career appearances (eight starts) against the Dodgers (3-1, 4.88 ERA in 11 games – four starts – at Dodger Stadium).
Kershaw dominated the Padres in Saturday’s 4-1 road win, yielding just one run on three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in seven innings. In two games since getting blasted by Milwaukee on May 4 (seven runs allowed in 1 1/3 innings), the 22-year-old left-hander has allowed one run on five hits and five walks while striking out 16 in 15 innings. Take out the start against the Brewers, and Kershaw has surrendered two runs or fewer in five straight starts, posting a 1.57 ERA.
The Dodgers are 5-2 in Kershaw’s last seven starts overall and 5-0 in his last five against the N.L. West, but they’ve lost four of his last five on Thursday. The lefty is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in five home starts and 3-2 with a stout 2.76 ERA against the Padres.
Despite clearing the posted total the last two nights, San Diego remains on “under” runs of 39-20-4 overall (9-2-1 last 12), 20-8-2 on the road, 34-17-2 against N.L. West foes, 20-8-1 versus winning teams and 4-1 versus southpaw starters. Also, the under is 7-2 in Correia’s last nine starts against the N.L. West.
L.A. carries “under” trends of 7-4 overall, 4-1 within the division, 6-3 against right-handed starters, 5-1 with Kershaw starting overall, 7-3 with Kershaw pitching at home and 8-1 when he faces N.L. West foes. However, the over is 10-3 in the Dodgers’ last 13 home games and 5-1 in their last six on Thursday.
Finally, the under had cashed in six straight Padres-Dodgers meetings prior to Wednesday’s slugfest, and Kershaw’s last four starts against the Padres have stayed low. However, the over is now 10-4 in the last 14 series clashes in L.A.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (29-11) at N.Y. Yankees (25-15)
Andy Pettitte (5-0, 1.79) tries to keep his perfect 2010 record intact when he pitches opposite the Rays’ James Shields (4-1, 3.00) as the top two teams in baseball conclude a two-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Tampa Bay jumped out to a 10-2 lead on Wednesday, then held off a ninth-inning Yankees rally to prevail 10-6 and move four games clear of New York in the A.L. East standings. Since suffering their first three-game losing streak of the season, the Rays have won five in a row and seven of eight, and they continue to own baseball’s best road record (16-4). Joe Maddon’s club is on additional surges of 40-16 overall, 22-6 against the A.L. East, 7-0 as an underdog (all on the road), 13-3 versus left-handed starters and 43-15 in the second game of a series.
New York has now lost seven of 11 overall, but it remains an MLB-best 13-5 at home. The defending champs are also on positive runs of 101-46 overall, 51-14 at Yankee Stadium, 45-17 against the A.L. East, 65-27 against right-handed starters and 45-13 at home versus righties.
These teams have now split four clashes this season, with the road team going 3-1. New York is still 11-5 in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 at home. Going back several years, the Rays are just 25-59 in their last 84 trips to the Bronx (including old Yankee Stadium).
All four Yankees-Rays contests this season have been blowouts (9-3, 10-0, 7-3 and 10-6), and 16 of the last 18 meetings – including the last eight in a row – have been decided by multiple runs.
Shields has held five straight opponents to two earned runs or fewer, yielding a combined nine earned runs in 36 innings (2.25 ERA). In his most recent start on Saturday, he held the Mariners to two runs on six hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts in eight innings, but got a no-decision with the Rays pulling out a walk-off 3-2 victory. Over his last four trips to the mound, the right-hander has 38 strikeouts against just two walks.
Tampa Bay has won five of Shields’ last six starts overall and four of his last five against the A.L. East, and he’s 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in four road contests this year. However, the Rays are 14-29 in his last 43 starts as an underdog and 7-21 in his last 28 as a road pup. Also, Tampa Bay has lost nine of Shields’ 10 career starts against the Yankees, with the California native going 1-7 with a 5.76 ERA. In New York, he’s 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA in five starts (all at old Yankee Stadium).
Pettitte missed 10 days with elbow discomfort, but returned Saturday against Minnesota and tossed a gem, scattering two hits and three walks over 6 1/3 scoreless innings en route to a 7-1 home victory. The 37-year-old southpaw has now held five of his first seven opponents to two runs or fewer. Also, going back to last year’s postseason, New York has won 10 straight games started by Pettitte, including seven in a row at home, where he’s 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA in five games this season.
Not only are the Yankees unbeaten in Pettitte’s last 10 starts, but behind him they’re on further runs of 20-6 overall, 85-38 at home, 48-22 against the A.L. East and 27-8 as a favorite. Additionally, New York is 16-7 in Pettitte’s last 23 games versus Tampa Bay. For his career, he’s 16-5 with a 3.81 ERA in 28 starts against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is on “under” streaks of 13-3-2 overall, 4-2-2 on the road, 7-2 against right-handed starters and 14-4 when Shields goes off as an underdog, but the Rays have also topped the total in 10 of 14 against A.L. East foes and 12 of Shields’ last 16 Thursday outings. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last four Thursday games and 59-29-3 in Pettitte’s last 91 starts overall, but otherwise they’re on “over” runs of 3-0 overall, 8-4 at home and 7-0 against the A.L. East.
The over has cashed in five straight in this rivalry, but the under is still 5-2 in the past seven series clashes at Yankee Stadium. Also, the under is 8-1 in Pettitte’s last nine starts against Tampa Bay (4-1 last five at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL INDEX
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to rebound from yesterday's 4-1 loss and build on their 8-3 record in Joe Blanton's last 11 starts as a home favorite. Philadelphia is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120)
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Atlanta (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 16.558; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.629
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135); Under
Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.550; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.421
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Over
Game 955-956: Florida at St. Louis (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Robertson) 14.734; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.350
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-230); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-230); Under
Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.627; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.600
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 14.434; Washington (Atilano) 15.797
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under
Game 961-962: Colorado at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.083; Houston (Oswalt) 15.643
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over
Game 963-964: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.805; Arizona (Lopez) 15.573
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+160); Under
Game 965-966: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 15.950; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.837
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Under
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.621; Cleveland (Talbot) 15.365
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-130); Under
Game 969-970: Detroit at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 14.726; Oakland (Ross) 15.215
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Under
Game 971-972: Toronto at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 16.317; Seattle (Vargas) 14.053
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); Under
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.653; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.320
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Under
Game 975-976: Minnesota at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano); 15.966; Boston (Lester) 16.926
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
Game 977-978: Baltimore at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 14.365; Texas (Feldman) 16.322
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Over
Game 979-980: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.406; White Sox (Peavy) 16.590
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Under
NHL
Philadelphia at Montreal
The Flyers look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 1-4 in its last 5 games as a favorite. Philadelphia is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110)
Game 59-60: Philadelphia at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 13.772; Montreal 12.474
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+110); Over
WNBA
San Antonio at Tulsa
The Silver Stars look to bounce back from their 75-70 loss to Atlanta and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. San Antonio is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+1 1/2)
Game 651-652: San Antonio at Tulsa (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 110.630; Tulsa 110.738
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 1 1/2; 160
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+1 1/2); Under
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
When the Red Sox send Jon Lester up against Francisco Liriano and the Twins in a battle of left-handers at Fenway Park tonight they will do so knowing Lester is on terrific current form at 4-1 with a 1.81 ERA in his last five starts. With Liriano in sloppy form with a 5.21 ERA in his last three starts, look for Lester to remain unbeaten in his career team starts against Minnesota here this evening.
Matt Fargo
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota looks to earn the series split tonight after dropping the opener on Wednesday by a 3-2 score. The Twins have been in a little bit of a funk but they are still eight games over .500 on the season including two games over .500 on the road. They have won four of the last six meetings dating back to last season. The Red Sox have won two straight games but they are not playing well as they dropped four of their previous five before this. They are just 12-10 at home which is obviously a winning record but it is not nearly the same winning percentage as they are accustomed to. Minnesota sends Francisco Liriano to the hill and what a comeback season he is having. He is 4-2 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in seven starts. He began the season with five straight quality outings including three games where he allowed no runs and he was then hit hard against the Orioles. He followed that up with another quality effort last time out despite taking the loss. One of those shutout performances came against the Red Sox. Boston sends Jon Lester to the hill and he has been up and down. He is still a top quality pitcher but he has struggled against the Twins, going 0-2 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in four career starts. The Twins have been killing left-handed pitching, hitting .294 on the season including .296 on the road and .317 over the last 10 games. Boston is hitting a decent .272 against southpaws but just .234 over its last 10 games. Minnesota is 9-3 on the season against left-handed starters including 1-0 against Lester and the Red Sox. The Twins are 11-4 in their last 15 games following a loss while the Red Sox are 8-19 in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 1-5 in Lester’s last six starts against teams with a winning record. 3* Minnesota Twins
Jeff Hochman
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The LA Dodgers will bounce back after last night's beat down. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best young lefties in all of baseball with a 93-96 MPH Fastball, a great 12-to-6 Curveball, and a decent change-up. The Padres are hitting .175 vs. left-handed starters on the road. That is not a misprint! Kershaw has pitched 324.1 innings so far in his career and has 337 strikeouts. Stud in the making. Take the Blue Crew in this one.
Steve Merril
Rays vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9.5
The Rays beat up the Yankees in the Bronx on Wednesday night. They’ll try to do it again tonight behind James Shields. Unfortunately, the Yankees have great numbers against the Rays righty. Shields is a dismal 1-7 with a 5.77 ERA in 10 career starts against New York. Derek Jeter (12-33), Robinson Cano (12-26), and Marcus Thames (2-5) have the best numbers against him. The Yankees are averaging almost six runs per game and are hitting .300 at home this season. They are smacking out 6.5 runs per game against teams in their division as well. Andy Pettitte gets the start for the Yankees. He has yet to pick up a loss this season despite dealing with injury. He's given up five runs over his last 17.3 innings of work. The lefty is 16-5 against the Rays with a 3.88 ERA. But each of his last three outings against Tampa Bay has been difficult; he has allowed 13 runs and 20 hits over his last 16.3 innings pitched. Carl Crawford (12-39), Carlos Pena (11-35), Gabe Kapler (7-25), Jason Bartlett (7-18), Dioner Navarro (5-17), Ben Zobrist (4-12), and Sean Rodriguez (1-2) all hit Pettitte well. As a team, the Rays are averaging almost six runs per game on the road this season. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring slugfest so we’ll recommend a play on the Over
Jim Feist
Ny Mets vs. Was Nationals
Take: Was Nationals
Washington plays its best baseball at home, with a winning record, while the last place Mets have been terrible on the road. NY righty John Maine has been equally bad, at 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA. He's allowed 47 hits in 39 innings with 24 walks, a whopping 71 base runners in 39 IP. Washington's Luis Atilano (3-0, 3.99 ERA) has been very good and shut out the Mets in 5 innings against them already this season. Play the Nationals.
Rob Vinciletti
Orioles vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9½
There is a solid system in this game that has cashed 9 of the last 10 times the last 6 years. What we want to do is play the under for certain home favorites off a home win that scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits vs an opponent off a road loss that scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits and had 10 or more men left on base. These games average just over 5 runs per game. Baltimore has played under 6 of 7 times on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 and 19 of 26 times in night games. Texas has played under 10 of 14 times vs leftys. Texas has S.Feldman going tonight and he has a solid 2.555 era vs Baltimore,with all 3 of his starts going under the total. This one should stay under as well.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON –1½ +1.74 over NY Mets
You might all remember the Mets on a seven-game winning streak earlier to run its record to 13-9 and put them atop the division at the time. The Mets are now 19-22 so they’ve gone 6-13 since then and things aren’t about to change and here’s why. The Mets can’t hit and with runners in scoring position they’re pathetic. When they were winning it was because of a pitching staff that was extremely lucky in that they were allowing just 3.3 runs per game but they also had stranded 80.1% of runners. The league average is closer to 70%, and, historically, no pitcher and no team has ever demonstrated a clear ability to keep runners from coming around once they've already reached. And reaching, they do, as Mets pitchers lead the Majors in walks with 184 in 369 innings. Now in free-falling mode, the Mets will send out John Maine and his deserving 8.53 road ERA. In 39.2 IP overall, Maine has surrendered eight bombs and he’s walked 24 batters. Walking guys and serving up jacks is not a good combination and after the Nats faced him 10 days ago in New York, they’ll be even more ready this time around. The Nats also broke a losing streak with a win last night and this is a team to really watch, as they could get very hot and they want to win as badly as any team in the league. Luis Atilano is a risky proposition because of his inability to throw strikes but he does have nasty stuff and again, the Mets batters look like a “deer in the headlights” up there. So, this one is much more about playing on the Nats over the Mets than it is playing the starters and at this price it’s absolutely worth the risk. The Mets might have a great day and score two, three or four but the Nats might score eight, nine or more. Play: Washington –1½ +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.33 over NY YANKEES
This is without doubt the biggest overlay on the board today. The Yanks are banged up badly, the bullpen is completely gassed and ineffective and the Rays keep rolling along. On the rack for the Yanks are Jorge Posado, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, Marcus Thames and Nick Swisher. The Rays are now 29-11 overall and they’re an incredible 16-4 on the road. James Shields (147 BPV, 3-5-5-4-5 PQS) has been dominant in his last four starts, recording 38 Ks in 29 innings with just two walks. Andy Pettitte is having a tremendous year, which is a shocker when you consider that he’s traditionally a very slow starter. Pettitte is 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA but that simply cannot last. A low hit rate (26%), a high strand rate (84%) and a low 2.5% HR/flyball rate suggest a big correction is coming and who better than the Rays to make that correction. The Yanks are way overpriced here and at best, this one should be a pick-em and even then the Rays would still be a solid bet. Play: Tampa Bay +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.13 over MONTREAL
Why stop now? The glass slippers have come off and now the Canadiens are not only mentally in trouble but the Flyers have put doubt into the mind of Jaroslav Halak. So, as the series shifts to Montreal nothing has changed. Montreal has not scored a goal in either game while the Flyers are getting tremendous balance in its scoring. In that 3-0 win nine different players recorded a point. Claude Giroux has become as dangerous or more so than Daniel Briere, Mike Richards and Simon Gagne. The Flyers have outscored the Canadiens 9-0 and all they can talk about is needing to play better. So, while I’m not counting the Habs out of this game, they’re going to have to show more to warrant laying juice on them. Michael Leighton, not Halak is becoming one of the most remarkable stories in Stanley Cup history. He’s 4-0 and leads all playoff goalies in goals-against average (0.87) and save percentage (.969). The Flyers special teams are clicking with four power-play goals in eight chances and the penalty kill is a perfect 8 for 8. It’ll be crazy in Montreal tonight but so what. The Flyers have momentum, they have their foot on the throat of the Habs and they really didn’t even play that good in game two. They’ll play better tonight and they’ll likely win again. Play: Philadelphia +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
We’ll take the small underdog payout on Thursday night with Santana and the Angels over Buehrle and the White Sox. Mark Buehrle has been struggling after beginning the 2010 season on fire, as the Sox have lost the last six games he has started with Buehrle taking the decision in five of those six games. And he doesn’t look like he’s going to be coming out of his slump anytime soon, as he allowed six runs (five earned) in six innings his last time out against a weak Kansas City lineup. Santana is in decent form, and the Angels bats should get to Buehrle once again here.
Play on: Los Angeles Angels
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Philadelphia Flyers @ Montreal Canadiens
PICK: Montreal Canadiens
Do or die for Montreal here in my opinion.
Although the Habs came back from a 3-1 hole to beat Washington in the first round, and then beat the defending Stanley Cup Champs in seven games in the second, to ask this team to come back from a 3-0 deficit (like the Flyers just historically did), is not going to be possible in my opinion.
If Montreal is ever going to win a game in this series, tonight's the night; and there are plenty of reasons to believe it will.
One of the main reasons the Habs are in the Eastern Conference Finals has been their ability to focus in on their opponents top line and scorers; Ovechkin and Backstrom in Round 1, and Crosby and Malkin in Game 2.
There is a big difference between those teams and the Flyers though; Philadelphia doesn't have a "super star" line or players; it has a very balanced offensive attack.
Montreal has been extremely adept at making necessary adjustments after a loss in the post-season and must come out with a different game plan as far as slowing down the Flyers offense is concerned.
But there's no question what must be done in order to break Michael Leighton's two-game shut-out streak; plenty of shots and traffic in front of the net.
Keep in mind though, Montreal did outshoot the Flyers 30-23 in Game 2; 16-6 in the first frame!
However, the Habs uncharacteristically seemed to "pack it in" during the third period as they managed just four shots on the Flyers netminder.
And that's where the Bell Center comes into play this evening; the Habs won't need to look any farther than a millimetre behind the glass for added motivation tonight as the Montreal faithful will be going ballistic.
There's one other factor tonight that many have either not taken into consideration, or overlooked or even written off; and that's Jaroslav Halak.
Without question, Montreal would not be in the Eastern Conference Finals if not for the Slovakian goaltender; I expect Halak to have his best game of this series tonight; remember as well that Montreal is 5-2 (+8 units) when trailing in a playoff series.
Philadelphia is a sub-par 4-4 (-1 unit) after shutting out its opponent in its previous contest.
With its back against the wall, I believe MONTREAL will claw its way back into this series.
Tom Freese
Rockies at Astros
Prediction: Under
Houston starter Roy Oswalt has allowed 3 or less runs in all 8 of his starts this year. Oswalt has a 24-4 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Astros are 20-4-2 UNDER vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed 2 or less runs in all 8 of his starts this year. Colorado is 13-3-1 UNDER vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Rockies are 4-1-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall. The Rockies are 21-8-1 UNDER the last 30 starts made by Jimenez. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -158
After seeing their 9-game winning streak get snapped last night, expect the Dodgers to bounce back strong here. Both Kershaw and Correia have made 8 starts against the Padres and Dodgers respectively in their career and thus far Kershaw has pitched better. He's carrying a 2.76 lifetime ERA against the Padres while Correia is carrying a 5.28 lifetime ERA against the Dodgers. One thing I really like to consider is how pitchers do against the teams in their division that see them all the time. Kershaw is certainly winning this battle as he is 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.32 and a WHIP of 0.951 this season. Correia is just 1-3 in decisions and on the money line with an 4.30 and a WHIP of 1.087. The Padres are just 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win and the Dodgers are 83-39 in their last 122 games as a home favorite. Take LA.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -118
Ricky Romero has been the Ace of the Blue Jays' starting staff this season. Romero is 4-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.136 WHIP this season and Toronto is 6-2 in his eight starts thus far. Romero is making hitters look foolish, striking out 59 batters in 56.1 innings of work. The Seattle Mariners hitting .235 and scoring 2.6 RPG against left-handed starters this season. This Seattle line-up has really struggled offensively all season long, hitting .232 and scoring 3.3 RPG this year. Toronto has one of the best line-ups in baseball, especially in the power department. The Blue Jays are scoring 5.1 RPG and they already have 65 home runs en route to a 25-17 record through 42 games this season. Seattle has hit just 22 home runs in 40 games with a 14-26 record this year.
Seattle is just 3-15 in their last 18 games overall. The Mariners just can't get anything to go right for them over the last three weeks, and the main culprit is their inability to score runs offensively. During this 18-game drought, the Mariners have scored 5 or less runs in 17 games. They have scored a total of 50 runs in those 18 games for an average of 2.8 RPG. Toronto is 10-1 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Jays are a perfect 6-0 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 3.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. Bet Toronto Thursday.
Jorge Gonzalez
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs (19-22) will look to sweep a two-game series from the Philadelphia Phillies (24-15) and win a season high five-straight games. The Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (2-4, 3.49) has been pitched well over is his last six starts but has lost four straight games. Dempster has pitched seven innings or more during the streak with an ERA of 3.25. He is allowing a batting average if .206 and averaging 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The problem has been a lack of run support from the Cubs offense. The Cubs have scored over three runs just once in the last six starts in a 6-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on April 23rd. Dempster is an impressive 25-0 when the Cubs score at least four runs when Dempster is on the mound. The Phillies will be looking to avoid losing three straight games after losing 4-1 to the Cubs in Wednesday’s game. The Phillies will be sending Joe Blanton (1-2, 5.49) to the mound, Blanton has struggled over his last three starts that includes two losses at home. Take the Cubs.