Black Widow
1* on Texas Rangers -145
Texas should be closer to a -200 favorite in this game vs. Baltimore. The Orioles are just 13-28 this season and 5-16 on the road. Baltimore is hitting .247 and scoring 3.1 runs/game away from home this season. The Rangers are 16-7 at home hitting .288 and scoring 5.5 runs/game. Orioles' starter Brian Matusz is 2-2 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.630 WHIP through five road starts this season. Rangers' starter Scott Feldman is 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore. He has owned thsi team and he has also pitched his best at home this year. The Rangers are 15-5 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The Orioles are 15-43 in their last 58 road games. Baltimore is 0-5 in Matusz's last 5 starts overall. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games. Texas is 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Rangers on the Money Line.
Bryan Leonard
New York at Washington
The Mets continue to struggle away from home losing 14 of 19 games this season. Today John Maine takes the hill looking to bounce back from an ugly start at Florida. Maine has an 8.53 ERA this year away from home with a whopping 2.00 WHIP. In his last seven starts overall he owns a 5.97 ERA. While he did fare well in his only start against the Nationals this year that game was at Citi Field.
Luis Atilano is on the hill for the host and his work with Ivan Rodriguez has really helped his game in 2010. He has a 3.90 ERA this year despite not having overpowering stuff. He let's Pudge call the game and he puts the ball in play. With the Mets lacking much overall power this match-up should be in his favor. While the Mets have struggled on the road the Nats are 12-8 at home. They have also won 8 of the last 10 games played in this series.
PLAY WASHINGTON
Info Plays
3* on Boston Red Sox -135
Reasons the Red Sox win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (BOSTON) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. This is a 40-8 ML System hitting 83.3% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +30.2 units. This system is a perfect 3-0 this season as well.
2.) Francisco Liriano is cooling off, going 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.632 WHIP in his last 3 starts for the Twins. Jon Lester is catching fire, going 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Liriano is 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three lifetime start vs. Boston. The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 home meetings with Minnesota. Bet the Red Sox at home.
Nelly
Florida + over St. Louis
Adam Wainwright has great overall numbers but his last start was his worst of the season and St. Louis is just 2-3 in his last five outings despite generally playing as big favorites when he is on the mound. The Cardinals continue to slide having lost six of the last nine games and even if Wainwright pitches well the Cardinals have not been scoring runs, failing to top four in six of the last seven games. The whole Hanley Ramirez incident appears to have provided a spark for the Marlins as Florida is 2-0 since the incident, out-scoring their opponents 13-1. Florida is now 8-2 in the last ten games while posting five runs per game in that span. Florida pitching has held its opponent to two or fewer runs in six of the last ten games as well. The Marlins have won Nate Robertson's last two starts as he has made three straight outings without allowing more than two earned runs. Robertson has average overall numbers this season but on the road has been sharp with a 3-1 record and a 3.38 ERA. Both teams have solid bullpens but the Marlins have been the much better hitting team, batting .272 in the last ten games. Florida is a winning team on the road this season while the home field edge in St. Louis appears diminished. With a nearly 2:1 price, backing a hot Marlins team is a clear profit opportunity.
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Dodgers -$170
After a slow start to the season, the Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw has now put together back to back dominant performances. Over his last two starts Kershaw he has allowed one run on five hits and struck out sixteen, while only walking five batters. Kershaw faced these Padres on Saturday and held San Diego to only one run on three hits, while striking out seven and walking two batters. The Padres starting pitcher Kevin Correia has four wins this season but has been the benefactor of some good run support. Correia has not pitched more than six innings in any start this season and has an ERA of 4.35. I don't expect that to change in this game nor do I expect the Padres to be able to provide Correia with much run support. The Padres are only 4-12 in their last sixteen trips to Los Angeles. Play on the Dodgers.
GREG SHAKER
Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5
This line is available at 9 at most books but at Under -125. That gives us a buying opportunity down to a much better level with 9 being a very key MLB Number. As stated, writeups will be very brief and there is no reason not to be here. Both of these teams are lefty killers. Both of these teams have poor bullpens, in the case of Milwaukee, a real stinker. Both of these teams can score runs, and once again in the case of Milwaukee, tops in the NL at doing so. Both starters have relatively high WHIPS so we should see some baserunners for this one. The weather is somewhat unfavorable and somewhat neutral. We do have what is considered a Hitter's Venue at Pittsburgh and we do have two teams that are OVER 5 straight this year when playing each other. What is not to like? I can't think of anything..
Andre Gomes
San Antonio Silver Stars @ Tulsa Shock
In my opinion we are getting some interesting value with the Over in this contest due to the fact that these 2 teams underperformed in game 1 and so there is the perception that this line is way over the corrected number, well, I just think that this line is underrated as my projected line is 165/167 points.
To start the analysis let me say that Tulsa pace of the game in their first game of the season against Minnesota was pretty similar to the Phoenix/LA game – a wild run and gun game. Sure that they don’t have the same core of talent that the Mercury but their wild fast game will be enough for them to score some points. However against the Lynx they scored only 74 points due to: 1) shooting 37.5% FG; 2) 19-30 from the line is a bad number and 3) 22 turnovers, their dilemma is to create turnovers…but on the opposing team! If we add to the discussion the fact that was the first home game of the franchise we can also say that their players were nervous and felt the pressure.
Meanwhile the same thing can be said about the Silver Stars in terms of their performance against Atlanta: they shot 4-18 behind the arc; they connected only 50% of their free throws and have committed also 21 turnovers. However the pace of the game against Atlanta was a fastest paced game so this is a good indicator for us today.
While I expect this game to be a pure run and gun game since the start I just don’t expect these 2 teams to be so sloppy offensively like they were in the first day of the season because they have some more days to practice and without the “pressure” of playing the first home game of the season I’m taking the Over as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 162.5
Sac Lawson
TEX / BAL Under 9.5
UMPIRE ALERT.. CB Bucknor is behind home plate today in Texas, and that means the UNDER is $$. This is a guy that is 2-6 O/U on the year, and almost 60% UNDERS over the past two seasons. The guy calls tons of strikes, and that means tons of short innings for both of these pitchers.
On top of it, we've got the wind blowing in from right today in Texas. Honestly, can't get a better set up.
I realize that Feldman has been an OVER pitcher all season long, but he's shown some success at home, and the Baltimore bats have shown very little on the road. I expect him to at least keep them in check. On the other side, Matusz is a guy that plays in 3-0, 4-1, games every single time out it seems like. He's a great young pitcher, and he keeps his team in games, unfortunately they simply don't score for him.
I like Matusz, and think he can keep these Texas bats at bay, even in Arlington, and although Feldman makes me nervous, I think his success at home is something we can't ignore... And I think the addition of an UNDER ump, and a little wind blowing in will be plenty to keep this at a 4-2 type of game. 1 unit on the UNDER.
WAS (-114) vs NYM
Let's be honest here.. The Mets are never a good bet away from home, so if we can get a pickem number with the Mets on the road, and what we deem to be a pretty even pitching matchup.. Gotta take it!
John Maine is a guy that has definitely struggled with the home run ball a bit this season, and Washington is definitely a team that can bring those struggles back to life today. I have no been even the least bit impressed with his stuff this year, especially against righties. I have no reason to believe that he'll magically pitch well against a team that has seen him once already this season.
On the other side, Atilano is nothing amazing, but he's been solid thus far, and proved earlier in the season that he could easily handle the Mets lineup. Now that he's got them in his home park, the results should be even better if not equal. Obviously the Mets have an advantage having seen him once before, but like I mentioned, I really can't trust the Mets bats on the road in the first place, Can you?
I think the Nationals win this game by simply showing more of a pulse in the batters box. 1 unit on the Nats!
John Ryan
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
3* graded play on Boston as they host Minnesota set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Red Sox will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-8 for 83.3% winners since 2004. Play on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 and is an average offensive team scoring between 4.7 to 5.2 RPG facing a good AL starter sporting an ERA<=4.20 and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. Twins are just 11-23 (-14.0 Units) against the money line versus poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game over the last 2 seasons; 16-31 (-16.9 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better over the last 2 seasons. Boston is a solid 33-12 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus excellent fielding teams averaging <=0.5 errors/game over the last 3 seasons. Boston is starting a run and their bullpen has been quite good over the past 7 days sporting a 3.20 ERA. Starter Lester has gone 7 innings in the 3 of the past 4 starts and 8 innings in the other start. We do not see Twins having much success against lester nor the bullpen. Take Boston.
Craig Trapp
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Last night we are on the Rays and we are back on them tonight. This is not your average team that is happy just beating the NYY once. Remember this same TB swept a 4 game road series at BOS about a month ago. The NYY are really banged up and are looking ahead to the interleague matchup with the NYM. Shields has not been great in his career verse the NYY but lately he has been amazing going 29 innings only allowing 9 runs. He takes on the undefeated Petite for the Yanks today. Petite has been really good verse TB but remember last night Burnette was just as dominant and look what happened. This TB team is the best lineup in baseball and they will once again send a message that this division is going to be owned by the Rays this year.
Larry Ness
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
The Rangers won 4-3 last night over the Orioles, giving them a 3-0 start to their seven-game homestand. That extends the team's home record to 16-7 with NINE wins in its last 10 home contests. In contrast, the Orioles' road loss drops them to 5-16 away from home on the season. So what else is new? The Orioles have averaged 51 road losses per season the last four years, while playing .370 baseball away from Camden Yards (2006-09). The team's .238 winning percentage on the road to open 2010 puts them on pace to lose 60-plus games away from home this season. Brian Matusz takes the mound for Baltimore and the young lefty hasn't pitched all that poorly (4.18 ERA in eight starts) but the team has lost his last FIVE outings (team is 2-6 on the season in his starts). Opposing him will be Texas pitcher Scott Feldman. Feldman came out of nowhere last season to go 17-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 34 appearances (31 starts). His moneyline mark of 20-11 (plus-$853) ranked him 7th among all MLB starters in 2009. However, he's not been the same pitcher this year, going 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA in eight starts (team is 2-6). He's 0-4 with a 7.42 ERA in his last six starts overall but has posted a 2.55 ERA in winning all three of his starts vs Baltimore in his career. Bottom line is this. Feldman's backed by a team which has won NINE of its last 10 home games (16-7 at home TY), while Matusz pitches in front of the awful Orioles. Play Texas.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -133
The Red Sox took Game 1, and they figure to have the edge again tonight in this battle of lefties. But before we go into the pitching matchup, I have to mention that Boston has won its last 6 home games against the Twins. Liriano takes the hill for Minnesota and he is struggling after a fast start (5.21 ERA L3 starts). Those struggles figure to continue tonight when you consider that Boston is hitting .278 against lefty starters and scoring 6.4 runs per game. Lester is finding his groove after a slow start. He's 2-0 with an ERA of 2.86 over his last 3 starts. He figures to win the battle when you consider that the Twins are averaging just 4.5 runs per game against lefty starters. In fact, the Twins are 12-29 in their last 41 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-6 in Liriano's last 7 starts vs. the American League East. The Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter and 33-7 in Lester's last 40 starts as a home favorite. Take the Red Sox.
Dave Price
1 Unit on New York Yankees -134
I expect the Yankees to bounce back strong tonight when you consider the success they have had against Shields. The Rays are just 1-9 in Shields' last 10 starts vs. the Yankees. They are also 7-21 in Shields' last 28 starts as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 20-6 in Pettitte's last 26 starts, 11-0 in his last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 8-0 in his last 8 starts with 4 days of rest and 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Looking back even further, the Yankees are 85-38 in Pettitte's last 123 home starts. Pettitte and the Yankees get the call tonight.