Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, May 23

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I've been on a real roll in MLB lately & don't be surprised to see the Minnesota Twins shock the Detroit Tigers on Thursday. The Tigers had to deal with two lengthy rain delays in Cleveland on Wednesday before ultimately prevailing 11-7. While it was a rewarding series for Detroit (won both games), it was a taxing one as well. Don't be surprised to see them get caught napping tonight.
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Here are my keys to the game:FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Scott Diamond - He's been "sneaky good" on the road this season, winning all 3 starts and posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP. Facing a Tigers team that has dropped significant money vs. lefties the last two seasons, including a 3-6 mark in '13, is an advantage for Diamond. Tigers' starter Rick Porcello has a 6.25 ERA in seven starts this season & a 3-11 TSR in his career when working on 5+ days rest.
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2. Scheduling Advantage - Though the Twins lost their 8th in a row yesterday, at least the game was over early. Detroit's game in Cleveland didn't end until much later than anticipated thanks to nearly two hours worth of rain delays.
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3. X-Factor - Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 this year as a road underdog in the +150 to +175 range.

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Jose vs. Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This series appears to be destined to go seven games. That's because neither team is able to win at the other's rink. So far this season, there have been eight meetings of these Pacific Division rivals. The home team has won all eight. So with things moving back to Los Angeles for Game 5 Thursday, one would certainly expect the defending Stanley Cup Champs to have the advantage.
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In addition to the home ice advantage, a number of key trends also point towards a Kings victory here. They are a perfect 11-0 at home after playing a road game this season while also going 19-8 the last two years when playing with double revenge. In addition to dominating San Jose here at Staples Center, the Kings have won 24 of 29 home games this season overall. Conversely, the Sharks are 1-7 on the road after playing a home game this season. They have lost 18 of 28 on the road overall this season.
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There hasn't been much scoring so far in this series with San Jose totaling just seven goals and Los Angeles at eight. I think the Sharks will be victimized by a lack of scoring once again here as they barely average over 2 goals per game for the season away from home while the Kings give up less than that on average here at home. Kings go up 3-2 in the series.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles at Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles (19-27) has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Over is 18-8-1 in the Angels' last 27 road games. They send out Blanton for perhaps the last time for awhile with the imminent return of Jered Weaver to their rotation. The right-hander has really struggled this season with an 0-7 record along with a 6.62 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. His struggles will likely continue against this Royals team that has seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Kansas City (21-21) has seen the Over go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. The Over is also 5-2-1 in the Royals' last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Santana who is 3-3 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP so far this season. But while the veteran right-hander owns a sizzling 1.04 WHIP and .224 opponent's batting average on the road, these numbers do rise to a 1.13 WHIP and .257 opponent's batting average when at home. Lastly, the Over is a decisive 33-15-4 in the Royals' last 52 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Take the Over while listing both starting pitchers.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Red Wings +133FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With Chicago surprisingly down two games to one in this series, the pundits-the linesmakers and public now believe the mighty Blackhawks will be set to bounce back and tie this series. I , on other hand take a contrarian look at this tilt, and feel that Motown will once again come out flying and make things difficult for the Hawks. The Hockey town USA crew may have not dominated or out skated Chciago in game 3, but they played virtually mistake free hockey. You have to remember the Blackhwaks never really had any prolonged slumps during this shortened season, so don't be surprised if its now slump time and this series continues to spiral downwards and turns into a major fiasco for Chicago hockey fans and the franchise vs a Wings side that must not be underestimated.Detroit has won seven consecutive home playoff games against Chicago and betting number 8 is on the way. Final notes & Key Trends: Red Wings are 35-17-1 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 355-158-16 in their last 529 home games.Blackhawks are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Coach Quenville of Chicago is 0-5 all-time series against the Red Wings in the postseason.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto Blue JaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We will play against the Orioles here in this one,as we note that road dogs off a home dog win by 2 or more runs that scored 5 or more runs have lost 9 straight times the last 3 seasons, v an opponent off a home win. The Jays have finally started to hit a little as they are averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. Tonight they will fave Baseball Americas #26th overall rated prospect in Kevin Gausman. Tonight Gausman will be making his first start after 8 starts in Double AA Bowie where he had a 2-4 record with a 3.11 era. He will oppose hard throwing Toronto righty B. Morrow. In his last 2 starts vs the Orioles Morrow has been solid allowing just 3 earned runs in 13 innings. Look for Toronto to do enough here to get the win at home against Baltimore.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City RoyalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Joe Blanton (0-7, 6.62 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors; Blanton gave up 11 hits and two walks over 4 1/3's frames of work, striking out six and allowing four earned runs vs. the White Sox on Saturday. The beleaguered right-hander was lucky to earn the no-decision. With the expected return of ace Jered Weaver at the end of the month, Blanton's time in the rotation is coming to an end. Blanton will be opposed by Ervin Santana (3-3, 2.77 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits and three walks in seven frames vs. the A's on Saturday, striking out five, unfortunate to get saddled with the 2-1 loss. So far the 30-year old has gone at least six frames in each of his eight starts this season though. Blanton's mechanics are absolutely brutal right now; Santana is coming off one of his better starts of the year and will look to take advantage of this situation and beat his former team. I feel the talent discrepancy on the mound and the motivational factors working in favor of Santana warrants the home side a second look.

Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians +135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Terry Francona's Cleveland Indians are playing well in 2013. They are 11-9 on the road and play at Boston on Thursday night. Boston is 13-10 at home and starts Ryan Dempster in the first game of this series. Dempster's ERA is at 7.03 in his last 3 starts and the team is just 4-5 in his starts. Zack McAllister will pitch for the Indians and the team is 5-3 in his starts. His overall ERA is 2.65 and just 1.71 in his last 3 starts. Cleveland is getting offense from Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Nick Swisher, Jason Kipnis, Mark Reynolds and Yan Gomes. I like the road underdog on Thursday at +135.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh PiratesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates are hardly destroying the opposition yet they continue to find ways to win, the latest nailbiter a 1-0 success on Wednesday vs. the Cubs and nemesis Jeff Samardzija, who again flummoxed Buc batters but was simply outpitched by the Buc hurlers paced by in-form starter Francisco Liriano. Indeed, the Pittsburgh staff has a 2.15 ERA while winning 10 of 12, including a pair of 1-0 victories (Sunday vs. Houston, and last night vs. the Cubs) during the current three-game winning streak, and even ex-Indian Jeanmar Gomez has been able to step into the breach with a couple of solid efforts since James McDonald went on the DL. But the Cubs are pitching pretty well themselves (starters have a 3.36 ERA, fourth-best in MLB) and Thursday starter Edwin Jackson has been pitching in some bad luck, with a 1-5 record but flashing some better form in recent outings, picking up his first win as a Cub on May 11, giving up two runs in 5 1/3 IP of an 8-2 victory over Washington, then allowing three runs in 6 2/3 IP of a 3-2 loss to the Mets last Friday at Wrigley Field. Jackson;s numbers are even better on the road, with a 3.22 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. With this series being played tightly, and the Pirates not scoring a lot of runs (just seven in their current three-game win streak), there looks to be some value on the Cubs side.

Jim Feist

Minnesota at Detroit
Pick: Under

Detroit's Comerica Park is huge, great for pitchers and tough on hitters. A pair of pitchers are on the mound who throw strikes, which will be dividends. Minnesota has talented young arm Scott Diamond going, who has walked 9 in 39+ innings. He's thrown 39+ innings against Detroit, too, and has a sharp 2.72 ERA. Minnesota's offense is weak, 17th in runs scored and 27th in slugging and they face Rick Porcello, who has walked 8 in 38 innings. He's also been on a nice run with a 2.89 ERA his last three starts. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings, including 4-0 under the total in the last 4 meetings in Detroit. Play the Twins/Tigers under the total.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue JaysSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brandon Morrow will be on the mound for the Blue Jays as they open an important weekend set with the Orioles. The Birds will counter with highly touted rookie Kevin Gausman, who will make his big league debut tonight.
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Toronto is a huge disappointment thus far, but it's still only May, and they're just one hot streak away from getting back into the chase. The Jays are off a series win against Tampa Bay, so they're hoping to keep a little positive flow going here. As for the Orioles, they're hanging in there in the rugged AL East, and closed to within three games of the Yankees with the Wednesday night win.
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Morrow has had a very bad time of it for Toronto. There have been some back issues for Morrow, and perhaps that's at the root of his problems. Whatever the reason, he has not been very good, and the Morrow peripherals indicate that the poor start is no fluke. This is a guy who has averaged more than one strikeout per inning for his career. But this season he's getting less than seven K's for every nine innings pitched, and there's no question in my mind that's of substantial significance. Morrow is also getting fewer ground balls, he's allowing an inflated fly ball percentage, and his swinging strike rate is a career low. Those are all negative stats for a guy who is clearly a power pitcher. I'd rather be fading than taking Morrow right now.
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Kevin Gausman has been living up to the hype at AA Bowie, despite just a 2-4 record. Gausman has displayed exceptional control with only five BB's in 46 innings, and three of those came in a game where he was pulled in the fifth innings. Gausman is off his best game of the season, a dominating six-inning showing with ten K's.
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My guess is that Gausman will be on a fairly strict pitch count here, probably in the 80-85 range. He will certainly be tested by a few of the big bats on Toronto's lineup, but Gausman will also have the advantage of being an unknown live quantity to those same hitters.
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I'm generally a fan of taking first time starters more often than not, and I really like the fact that Gausman is not simply being called up to make an emergency start. He has a legit chance to stick with the big club if he shows well. There's not much doubt as to which is the better team right now, and given Morrow's problems, the visitors might also have the better pitcher going here. I'll cast my lot with the Orioles to grab the series opener.

JEFF BENTON

Thursday freebie is the Blue Jays to down the Orioles in the opener of their 4 game set at the Rogers Centre.

Baltimore gained some traction with back-to-back wins over division front runner New York the past two days - that after a 6 game slide - and now they give the ball to top prospect Kevin Gausman who will make his major league debut.

Toronto is gaining some traction too, as the Jays just took 2 of 3 from division rival Tampa Bay, and have now won 6 of their past 9 overall. The Jays send Brandon Morrow to the hill, and Morrow is in need of a solid showing as the veteran is just 1-3 for the season with an over 5 ERA.

Morrow has been bothered by neck soreness, but did pitch pretty well in his first start back versus the Yankees his last time out.

The O's took 2 of 3 off the Jays in April's first go-round, gonna side with the Jays to open this go-round with the "W".

3* TORONTO

Big Kat SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Blackhawks vs. Detroit Red WingsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Chicago Blackhawks -140FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Blackhawks will face their first must win of the season when they take on the Red Wings tonight at the Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. Chicago won Game 1 of the series at home but has been outscored 7-2 in losing Games 2 and 3. They had the best record in the league since day 1 of the season and easily won their first round series over the Minnesota Wild. This team is full of veterans, most of which have a Stanley Cup ring and we like their chances tonight when faced with a bit of adversity. Corey Crawford, who has been very streaky since becoming the starter in Chicago will once again be between the pipes for the Blackhawks. He has posted a 5-3 record in his 8 playoff starts with a 1.81 GAA, .933 save % and 1 shut-out. He has been left out to dry by his defense a few times in the last two games so the 7 goals against hasn’t been as bad as it looks on paper. Crawford will be opposed by Jimmy Howard, who will be making his 11th start of the playoffs for the Red Wings. He has posted a 6-4 record with a 2.43 GAA and .923 save % in the playoffs and has yet to record a shut-out. Despite losing the last two games of this series, Chicago has been very good in the spot they are in here tonight. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous contest and have dominated the Central Division dating back to last season, winning 42 of their last 56 games. They have also been excellent away from the United Center, winning 21 of their last 28 games on the road. The Wings, who could take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a win tonight have actually struggled a bit in the situation they find themselves in here tonight. They are just 3-13 in their last 16 games when playing with 2 days of rest and are just 2-8 in their last 10 head to head meetings with Chicago. Pair that with the fact that the Hawks have a 9-2 record in their last 11 games at The Joe and we’ll lay the price with them on the road tonight to get the win and return to the Windy City with the series tied 2-2.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland's offense has been firing on all cylinders in recent days, and yesterday not even Justin Verlander could could stop them from putting up seven runs. The only problem, Cleveland's pitching staff couldn't stop Detroit either, and the Tigers won the game 11-7.
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It might be a different story tonight, as Zach McAllister takes the mound at Fenway in the series opener against the Red Sox. McAllister (3-3, 2.65 ERA) has been very consistent for the Indians lately, and they have won each of his last four starts.
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He allowed a pair of runs on six hits over 7 1/3 innings in a 5-4 win over Seattle his last time out. Prior to that he surrendered three runs (2 earned) on eight hits over six innings in a 4-3 win over the Tigers.
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The Red Sox send veteran Ryan Dempster to the mound, and he's been roughed up in consecutive starts. Dempster was tagged for five runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings at Minnesota in his last start. Prior to that he allowed six runs on seven hits over five innings in a 12-4 loss to Toronto.
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Dempster has struggled with his command, walking six batters in his last start. The Indians will make him pay if he can't throw strikes tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -174

It seems as though reality has finally sunk in for the Twins. They hit a nice win streak early in the season but they are now quickly back below .500 on the year. They have now lost 8 consecutive games after getting shelled by Atlanta last night. Now they are traveling from Atlanta to Detroit without rest to face a Detroit team that had the luxury of sleeping in their own beds last night.

The Tigers will have Rick Porcello on the mound for today’s game. Porcello has posted a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts with a 0.911 WHIP. The Twins will send 3-4 Scott Diamond to the mound along with his 4.99 ERA. The matchup between starters is heavily in favor of the Tigers. When you add in the fact that Detroit is hitting .280 as a team against a Minnesota team with a .221 batting average in their past 7 games and we have all the makings for a big Tigers win.