Jason Sharpe
Detroit Tigers -1.5
Detroit Tigers starter Rick Porcello is on my list of pitchers to bet on right now as Porcello came out of Spring Training as a guy primed for a much better season in 2013 but struggled a bit out of the gates. That has all changed over the last month as Porcello has been as good as he has ever been in his career. He comes in with an ERA of just 3.24 in his last four starts and a WHIP below 1.00. Even more impressive than those numbers is the fact Porcello has gone three straight starts striking out six batters or more for the first time in his career and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning during that stretch. This hasn't been coming against bad offenses, either, as his last two starts came against two of the top offenses in all of baseball, the Indians and Rangers. The Tigers once again look to be one of the top teams in baseball this season at home. Detroit also leads both leagues hitting a! scorching hot .280 as a team right now.
Minnesota has really started to fall apart as they went into Wednesday's game losers of seven straight games overall. They have been outscored by a 43-19 margin in those seven losses. Left-hander Scott Diamond takes the hill for the Twins and comes in off his two worst outings of the season, allowing six earned runs in each game without making it out of the sixth inning in either contest. The high-powered Tigers offense should have little problems here against Diamond. Take Detroit minus the run and a half in this one.
CRAIG DAVIS
Free play of the day on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Chicago Cubs in today's National League matinee.
Since entering the starting rotation, Gomez (2-0, 2.78) has gone 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA in four outings, even though he didn't pitch well in his last outing.
Though he's never faced the Cubs in his career, he's catching them on a good day.
First off, the Pirates didn't supply much offense in last night's 1-0 win over the Cubs. Francisco Liriano had to pitch a gem and that's exactly what he did.
But for as bad as Pittsburgh's offense was last night, they've never struggled like that for two straight games.
That doesn't bode well for Jackson (1-6, 5.76 ERA), who has the second worst ERA on the team. He's been decent over his last two starts, but he's terrible on the road and just can't go the amount of innings he used to.
That puts too much pressure on the Cubs average bullpen to win a road game against a team that didn't hit the ball well and still won.
Take Pittsburgh as your free play of the day.
2* PITTSBURGH
BRAD WILTON
Your free play for Thursday is an intangible play, as I am gonna back Cleveland in Terry Francona's return to Fenway Park for the first time as manager of the Indians.
Should be an emotional night for former Sox skipper Francona, and with his team just having lost a short 2 game set to division rival Detroit, the Indians are in need of a win tonight.
Zach McAllister was roughed up by the Red Sox in an April 4 game sweep by Boston in the teams first meeting of the year. McAllister is in a groove right now, with a 2-0 mark his last 4, and an under 2 ERA. I expect an improvement tonight from the Indians hurler.
Ryan Dempster is looking to end his losing streak, as he is 0-2 with an over 7 ERA his last 3 starts.
Let's jump on the Tribe to take this one in Francona's first game back to the place where he lead the Red Sox to a pair of World Series triumphs.
2* CLEVELAND
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago +111 over PITTSBURGH (5 innings)SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. Jeanmar Gomez is 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA after four starts and nine appearances overall. Gomez is a prime “sell high” candidate because regression is guaranteed to occur over the coming weeks. Last season, Gomez went 4-5 with a 5.96 ERA in 91 innings for the Indians. His early season success hides the ugly major league strikeout rate and walk history. Including this season, Gomez has just 131 K’s in 239 major-league innings. More disturbing is the 85 walks he’s allowed. In 32 frames this year, Komez has 14 walks and 19 K’s. Gomez’s profile isn't good enough even with a strong groundball rate and he's crossed 50% in that department only once. xERA (4.88), command, and dominant/disaster splits history are all telling us to stay away. Never ignore xERA.
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Edwin Jackson is the complete opposite of Gomez in that Jackson has ugly surface stats but under the hood, it reveals that Jackson is as good as ever and his ever-changing address (Chicago is his eighth different uniform) has only reinforced the “eh” factor of his surface numbers. Jackson’s xERAs the past three seasons have all been sub-4.00 and that includes this years, xERA of 3.87. His disaster start rate is just 11% during that time. Jackson’s groundball rate 51% this year) is trending upwards, which should also keep implosion starts at bay. He’s just 29 and is as durable as they come with at least 31 starts in each of the past six seasons. Edwin Jackson doesn’t attract much attention but he’s a pitcher who is reliable (‘AAA’ rating) and has some hidden upside, as his 2012’s skills shows. His 1-6 record has also decreased his value from a betting perspective and we’re buying low. We’ll play the Cubbies in the first five innings because they seldom come from behind and they often lose leads late in the game.
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Baltimore +122 over TORONTOFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Jays are certainly playing better baseball of late with nine wins in their past 15 games but a close look reveals that all but one of those wins came against below average starters. The Jays nine wins over their past 15 games were against the following starters: Joe Saunders, Jeremy Hellickson (twice), Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Dempster, Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong and Jake Odorizzi. They did beat Clay Buchholz and deserve credit for doing so but the Red Sox scored just twice and the Jays won 3-2. The Blue Jays still have many issues that include a low hit total (370) that ranks them third last in the AL and a poor infield defense. Through eight starts, Brandon Morrow is looking less like the potential Cy Young candidate he was touted as in many publications and more like the maddening version bettors knew all too well prior to last year's breakout. Unlike in years past, Morrow can't blame poor luck for his struggles. He's managed to keep fly-balls somewhat at bay since he became a full-time starter in 2010 but the pendulum is swaying back into dangerous territory. Accuracy issues that plagued him in the past have returned, only this time he's not striking out enough batters to counter it. Hit % and strand % were scapegoats for his ERA/xERA gaps in '10 and '11. However, there's no silver lining this year, as his results match his skills Morrow has one win in eight starts. He’s allowed 49 hits in 45 frames and eight of those have gone yard. Morrow has surrendered two bombs in four of the eight games he’s started this season. Morrow has also been ineffective against lefties, which was a strength of his in the past. With no xERA potential to speak of, the new Morrow offers very little upside.
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With the Orioles in need of a starting pitcher to fill in the rotation, they have summoned the highly-touted Kevin Gausman to fill the void. Ranked as the Orioles’ number two prospect and the 53 rd best prospect in the minors, Gausman has number two upside due to his power arsenal and ability to command all his pitches. Tall and lean he brings a plus fastball sitting in the 92-98 range with plus movement. His second best pitch is his change-up that features plus fade and solid depth. To accompany his fastball-changeup combo, Gausman shows a solid curveball and slider but due to his arm action he may be more likely to scrap the curve and stick with a plus three-pitch mix down the road. In the meantime, all four pitches work and until he shows otherwise they will remain intact. To complement his power stuff, he displays plus plus command of his pitches and constantly pounds all quadrants of the strike zone. While there is not much more to his ceiling, he is already plus across the board. With the Orioles lacking a front of the rotation starter, if Gausman can translate the same success he had in the minors he may be holding down the top spot for years to come. Through 61.1 innings of work in the minors, Gausman has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and he and the O’s are worth a wager against the overvalued Blue Jays.
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Cleveland +132 over BOSTONFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indians drop two in a row and all of a sudden they’re taking back a tag like this against Ryan Dempster and the Red Sox? Ridiculous. Prior to dropping two straight, the Indians had won 18 of their last 22 games. They lead the majors with a road batting average of .274 and a road OPS of .804. The entire team figures to be extra jacked up today in support of their manager, Terry Francona, who will be going back to Boston for the first time since he was fired. Zach McAllister entered the season as a premium sleeper with upside, especially if he could improve his results against right-handed bats. He has a nifty 2.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after 51 IP, in large part due to his elite command against RH bats. Batters haven't been able to do much against his 91 mph four-seam fastball. After managing a .470 SLG % against it in 2012, they have a mere .370 SLG when facing it in 2013. It has plenty of horizontal movement and it's been keeping hitters off balance all year. McAllister’s groundball rate is trending the right way, his line drive rate was just 12% of his past three starts and the Indians have won five of his eight starts. Incidentally, the Indians two losses over the past two days were to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, two of the elite pitchers in the game today. Ryan Dempster is not among that group.
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Dempster put up a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his first 30 innings in April. Then May rolled in and Dempster’s ERA is now at 4.27 and his WHIP is up to 1.31. In his last start, Dempster walked six batters and now has issued 25 walks in 53 frames. Dempster has been tagged for 15 hits and 11 runs over his past two starts covering just 9.2 innings. He’s also benefitted from facing the Blue Jays twice, the Twins twice and Houston once in five of his eight starts. He does have an unusually high strikeout rate of 63 batters in his 52.2 innings so far and it’s due to Dempster using his splitter to generate a lot of swings and misses. Batters had a 0.37 BA against that splitter in the first month but the film is out and in May, batters caught up to Dempster with a BA against the splitter of .372. Ryan Dempster is 37-years old with a ton of mileage on his arm. His fastball has shown a three-year velocity decline and it now tops out at 89 MPH. We always stress to play value and while anything can happen in one game, there is no question the Red Sox are overpriced here and with that, we’ll gladly step in and accept that terrific value.
Wunderdog
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -135
The Pittsburgh Pirates have suffered through a couple of decades of futility. But it appears that is going to end this season. The Pirates at 28-18 are legitimate contenders, and hot ones at that, having registered 10 wins in their last 12 games. They have outscored those 12 opponents 50-29, and the pitching has been sensational. The Cubs are an equally frustrated organization, but have not turned the corner, or even come close for that matter . The Cubs enter this game at 11-40 in their last 51 as a dog from +110 to +150. The Pirates have been lethal at home vs. right-handed pitching, at 7-0 in their last seven. Go with Pittsburgh.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Tigers -163
The Twins are really struggling, having lost their last eight games. They haven't had much luck against the Tigers of late, dropping 31 of their last 46 in the series. Minnesota's Diamond has been rocked in his last two starts, giving up 12 runs in 10 innings. Detroit's Porcello, meanwhile, has pitched well in each of his last four starts with the Tigers winning three of them. He has allowed three runs or less in each of the four. The Tigers are also 7-3 in Porcello's last 10 starts versus the Twins.
Dave Price
Minnesota Twins +1.5 -129
The Twins are struggling. However, they are still showing value catching 1.5 runs at this price. Minnesota's Scott Diamond has an ERA of 4.99 through seven starts, but Detroit starter Rick Porcello has an ERA of 6.25 through seven starts. Porcello hasn't been much better at home where his ERA is 4.67. Diamond, on the other hand, has thrived on the road, where he is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.42. The Twins have also won his last three starts versus the Tigers. He has held them to 2 earned runs or fewer in each while going at least 6 innings in each. Also, consider that the Twins are 5-0 this season as a road underdog of +150 to +175. Take Minnesota on the run line.
Jack Jones
Angels/Royals OVER 8.5
I look for a slug fest tonight between the Los Angeles Angels and the Kansas City Royals. This is a battle between two of the best lineups in baseball from top to bottom.
The Royals may cover this OVER by themselves as they tee off against Los Angeles' Joe Blanton. The right-hander has been atrocious in 2013, going 0-7 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.967 WHIP through nine starts.
Blanton is also 0-2 with an 8.04 ERA and 2.106 WHIP in his last three starts. That includes a start against Kansas City on May 13th just 11 days ago. Blanton surrendered seven earned runs and 12 hits over 4 2/3 innings of a 4-11 home loss to the Royals.
While Ervin Santana has posted solid numbers this season, he's at a big disadvantage being a former Angel. Los Angeles has the perfect scouting report on him. Plus, Santana has struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA in his last three starts.
Los Angeles is 37-16-2 to the OVER in its last 55 games overall. The Angels are 12-2 to the OVER vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better this season. Kansas City is 59-39 to the OVER vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 3 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
Andre Ramirez
LA Kings -144
The Kings are 24-5 when playing at home, and 4-0 at home when playing the Sharks. The Kings will be playing in front of a sellout home crowd, where the fans will be supporting their team. In the last game Sharks player, Martin Havla got a little banged up, and he is questioned for this game. My concern is that if he does play, he won't be at 100%. Take the Kings at home for the win.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +100 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. In the Rangers series win over the Caps, one had to wonder how the Rangers could look so tough at home and so awful on the road until Game 7 when they went into Washington and beat the Caps 5-0. In this series against the Bruins, they’ve looked awful from the start and a turnaround here is not likely. Shame on the Rangers. They had one good run during the regular season to get them into the playoffs and have been outplayed during them in most periods. Against the Bruins, New York has looked completely outclassed, frustrated and out of sync. From defense, to forwards, to goaltending, to special teams, to all the intangibles, the New York Rangers are inferior to the Bruins and as a result, this gutless host is likely going to go away very quietly tonight.
The Bruins are peaking. We underestimated them in this series because of their struggles against the Maple Leafs but that seventh game miracle win has propelled them to another level. Boston’s fourth line of Daniel Paille, Gregory Campbell and Shawn Thornton has outplayed every line of the Rangers. The Bruins effective pinches and cycles have wreaked havoc on the confused Rangers and New York has no answer for any of it. In net, Henrik Lundqvist, who is rumored to be nursing a shoulder injury, has been just average while Turka Rask has been nothing short of brilliant in every game of these playoffs so far. In terms of heart, desire, momentum and current form, the Bruins have a big edge in all of them and they’re very likely going to put the Rangers out of their misery with a four-game sweep.
DETROIT +127 over Chicago
OT included. How can you not bet the Red Wings here? Up 2-1 in the series and completely dominating the Blackhawks in its only loss of this series, Detroit is fired up to get back on the ice tonight to take it to Chicago once again. Depth was supposed to provide a clear advantage for the Blackhawks, but it was Detroit’s unheralded third and fourth lines that have made things happen with their work along the boards and in front of the net. The pounding has taken a toll on the Hawks, whose frustration was made apparent when they took five consecutive penalties in a nasty third period in Game 3. If the Red Wings end up winning this series, a concept that seemed unimaginable just 72 hours ago, it won’t be because they have the better team. The Hawks are the more talented squad but Detroit has been the more disciplined team and the one that’s worked harder and smarter in all three zones during all three games.
The Blackhawks, after cruising through the regular season and the first round, are showing some panic and so is there coach. It was a garbage move by Joel Quenneville to throw Andrew Shaw and Bryan Bickell out there at the end of the game. There was still a chance for Chicago to cut into Detroit’s lead but he goes with guys who are frothing at the mouth. Bickell, who’d been running around for most of the third, was called for cross-checking Cleary repeatedly at 19:00, effectively ending any chance the Hawks had of mounting a comeback. Shaw then hopped over the boards and earned a misconduct 47 seconds later for general hooliganism. If there was a message being sent there, it wasn’t that the Hawks would battle to the end. It’s that the Red Wings are completely in their heads. Jimmy Howard has been delivering calm and measured efforts without a hint of any scrambling. When he blocks shots, he has maintained complete control of his rebounds. The Hawks generated just three second-chance shots in Game 3. Some nights that’s a sign that a team’s not battling. In Game 3, it indicated that there was nothing to battle for. Corey Crawford hasn’t been bad at the other end of the ice but he is not up to Howard’s standard. Crawford is not a difference-maker while Howard is. In the end, it’s the Red Wings that have showed poise, patience and a system that is working while the Blackhawks appear frustrated and mentally defeated. That’s not going to get it done in Game 4 at the Joe. Wrong side favored.