Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 10,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers send Max Scherzer to the mound against the Rays in Game Two of this three-game series in Detroit this evening knowing Scherzer is 6-1 with a sparkling 1.51 ERA in his last seven home team starts. He has also cashed in two of his three home team starts during the month of August in his career, issuing four walks against 23 strikeouts in those games. With Tampa struggling of late in this park (6-10 last 16 games), look for mighty Max to to get the cash once again here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Tom Freese
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Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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Seattle starter Feliz Hernandez has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Mariners are 9-3 with Hernandez in his last 12 starts vs. the Athletics and they are 4-1 at home with Hernandez vs. the A's. The Mariners are 13-6 in the last 19 home starts made by Hernandez. Oakland starter Brett Anderson has allowed 9 runs in his last 12.1 innings of work. The A's are 8-21 their their last 29 games in Seattle. The Athletics are 16-42 their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and they are 3-13 their last 16 home games vs. righty starters.

Steve Merril
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Orioles vs. Indians
Play: Under 9
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The suddenly resurgent Baltimore Orioles hit the road winners of six of their last seven games. They begin a series in Cleveland against the Indians on Tuesday night. Jake Arrieta gets the start for Baltimore. He's 3-3 with a 5.22 ERA, but he is coming off a solid effort against the Angels in Camden Yards. Arrieta gave up two runs and four hits in 7.7 innings of work. The righty is facing the Indians for the first time in his career. Cleveland has struggled offensively due to a few injuries. They've scored just 25 runs in their last six games. Home games haven’t exactly helped that much either as they are hitting just .248 as a team in Progressive Field. Baltimore may be winning games, but their offense isn't the reason why. They've scored just 16 runs over their last five games and they’ve been playing a lot of low-scoring games. Justin Masterson makes the start for Cleveland and he's actually pretty decent at home. The righty is 2-4 with a 3.92 ERA in nine starts in Cleveland. He took a loss against the Orioles earlier this year after giving up six runs and eight hits in 5.3 innings pitched, but that game was in Baltimore. His last home start against the O's was a 12-1 win back in April of 2009 after he gave up one run and four hits in 5.3 innings of work. Nick Markakis (1-11), Brian Roberts (2-8), Adam Jones (1-6), Felix Pie (1-5), and Jake Fox (0-2) all have poor numbers against Masterson. The Orioles have gone Under the total in 31 of their 54 road games while scoring just 3.5 runs per game away from home. They'll face a Cleveland bullpen that is sporting a 3.43 ERA at home. We expect a low-scoring game tonight so we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Orioles and Indians.

Cajun Sports
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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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The Chicago White Sox play host to the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night in the Second City. The Sox are 4-0 at home versus teams with a winning road record, 14-2 at home versus right-handed starters and 22-5 their last 27 home games overall. CWS starter Garcia is 20-7 when he starts Game 1 of a series and a perfect 5-0 his last 5 home starts. Twins starter Baker is 2-7 his last 9 starts when he is going on five days rest and 1-4 when he takes the bump versus the AL Central division. We will back the host team here as the White Sox take Game 1 of this series on Tuesday night in the Second City.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Chicago White Sox 3 Minnesota Twins 1

BIG AL
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Braves @ Astros
PICK: Under 7.5
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Lefthander J.A. Happ went from the Phils to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt deadline deal, and Happ proceeded to go out in his first Houston start and throw six innings of scoreless, two-hit ball at home against Milwaukee. But then the wheels fell off a bit in Happ's second start, but that was at Busch Stadium against the Cards, so we're willing to give him a mulligan on that one and obviously the Astros want to see if Happ can return to his Minute Maid Park form once again. After all, the Cardinals are a very good team hitting lefties (third in the league with a .270 team batting average) while the Braves are not (14th in the league at .248). And Happ has had some very good numbers throughout his short career against Atlanta as he is 2-0 with a 2.23 ERA and 18 strikeouts in just over 32 innings. Jair Jurrjens will get his 13th start of the season and eighth since coming off the DL in late June. He's been extremely consistent since his return, going 4-1 with a 3.45 ERA in those seven starts since the hamstring sidelined him. Four of the last seven games between these two teams have gone under the total as have seven of the last 10 meetings in Houston. Take the 'under.'

LEE KOSTROSKI

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
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Vicente Padilla has posted incredible recent numbers, allowing a total of just seven runs and 24 hits over his last seven starts. The locations and the opposition must be considered however before giving the figures too much weight. Four of the starts came at home in one of the lower scoring ballparks in baseball and the three road outings came in San Diego, San Francisco, and St. Louis, three of the lowest scoring parks in baseball. Padilla’s last start in a favorable hitting venue came in Boston where he was shelled for four runs in five innings.
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Kyle Kendrick appears to be finding his form after some early ups-and-downs. The Phillies have won his last three starts while he has allowed only four runs in nearly 20 innings. Philadelphia is 7-2 in his last nine starts while going 8-2 in his home starts for the season. Kendrick has made three consecutive home starts in which he has not allowed more than one run. Philadelphia’s bullpen has also proven to be a very effective unit in closing down games.
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The Phillies went 1-6 to start the second half of the season but this team has emerged as a serious contender of late, winning 14 of the last 17 games. The Phillies are 13-1 in the last 14 home games while going 36-19 for the season at Citizens Bank Park. Los Angeles meanwhile has been a road-weary squad with a 22-30 record while going 9-15 since the All Star Break. Los Angeles is 1-9 in the last ten road games and 0-8 in the past eight games outside of the Pacific Time zone. For the season the Dodgers are just 4-15 in games in the Eastern Time zone.
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The Dodgers have been ice cold offensively with a .243 team average in the last ten games while being held to four or fewer runs in all but five of the 24 games since the break. Philadelphia is batting .305 in the last ten games against right-handed pitching including an incredible production surge from Raul Ibanez to offset the recent injuries. Los Angeles is 1-7 in the last eight road starts for Padilla and while his recent numbers look strong, this will be a much tougher match-up and environment for the veteran a favorable home price on the Phillies who should still be considered the most dangerous team in the NL.

Jim Feist
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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 8
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Two strong offensive meet in the Skydome, a great hitter's park. Boston is second in the AL in runs scored, while the Blue Jays are tops in homers. Ricky Romero os the Blue Jays has struggled badly against Boston, with a 1-4 record and an 8.76 ERA against them. The Red Sox go with erratic Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has walked 46 in 97 innings -- always a problem with this guy. Look for an offensive show in the Dome, play the Red Sox/Blue Jays Over the total.

EZWINNERS
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Colorado Rockies -152
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The Rockie's starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is back at the top of his game. Jimenez recently had a six start stretch in which he posted a 7.64 ERA but since then he has made two dominant starts. In his last start against the Giants, Jimenez allowed one run on four hits with two walks and nine strikeouts in seven innings and became the fourth Rockies pitcher to win 17 games after Kevin Ritz (1996), Pedro Astacio (1999) and Jeff Francis (2007). Even with that rough stretch, Jimenez has an impressive 2.61 ERA on the season and he has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. I expect another solid effort from him here against the Mets. With Jimenez on the mound for Colorado, New York's starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey who has not pitched well at all lately has little margin for error. In Pelfrey's last seven starts he's gone 0-4 with a ERA of 9.00. In those seven starts Pelfrey has walked sixteen batters and struck out just fourteen. Part of Pelfery's problem is his mechanics that the team is trying to work out, but the Mets believe his struggles are more mental than physical. I don't expect him to magically turn things around in this game. Jimenez has a WHIP of only 1.11 this season and the Mets are only 9-24 in their last thirty three games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play on Colorado.

Gill Alexander
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OAK (+120) vs SEA
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Brett Anderson has always been a sabermetrics darling of sorts and he's living up to it in limited action this season. He's coming off a 7IP, 2ER, 3H outing v KC. He has a lifetime 2.41ERA v Sea. This season, he has a 1.07WHIP, 2.41FIP, and 3.52xFIP. He doesn't have nearly enough IP to qualify, but those figures are on pace to be the 7th, 3rd, and 12th best in MLB, respectively. King Felix always produces. He has 11 consecutive quality outings and 16 in his last 17 starts. He has a lifetime 3.05ERA v Oak. In 2010, he has a 1.14WHIP (15th best in MLB), a 3.17FIP (11th best in MLB), and a 3.45xFIP (11th best in MLB). Though I don't often raise the issue of run support since it's largely a function of good or bad fortune, when it comes to Felix, it's worth noting. The Mariners, an anemic offensive club by any measure, have only provided Hernandez with 2 or fewer runs of support in each of his last 5 outings. Even in victory last night, the Mariners won on being opportunistic, going 2-for-5 w RiSP. The Athletics were 0-for-9 w RiSP. Give me Anderson as a dog any day v a reliably poor offensive club, even against Felix who peculiarly brings out the worst in his own club's already challenged offense.

Brad Diamond Sports
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Houston over Atlanta
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The Braves Jurjens hits the bump this evening knowing his teammates are a horrid 1-5 in his latest road starts. Whereas, Houston is 6-0 against losing road entities. With the Braves horrible play last night it appears manager Cox could have a fading baseball team.

Lenny Del Genio
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Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
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New manager in Baltimore has the Os playing better baseball. Tonight, however they arent playing in friendly Camden Yards so we look for them to struggle against the Indians. The Os are an awful 14-40 this season away from home and despite Clevelands bad overall record they have played pretty good at home with a 24-29 record. Over the last two games the Os have received good pitching allowing three runs and two runs, however thats a bad sign as they are 4-22 after allowing 3 or less runs in back-to-back games. Masterson pitches tonight for Cleveland and he pitched the Indians to a 9-1 win at Boston in his last start. Look for the Cleveland righty to pitch well again tonight. Play on Cleveland.

Hollywood Sports
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Rockies at Mets
Play: Under
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It is not often when there is an opportunity to take the Under when it is as "high" as 7.5 with Ubaldo Jimenez on the hill. Jimenez is 17-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season. And when pitching away from Coors Field, Jimenez boasts a 2.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .185 opponent's batting average. He faces off against Mike Pelfrey who looks to bounce-back from a rough outing in Atlanta where he failed to pitch out of the 5th inning. For the season, Pelfrey is 10-6 with a 4.16 ERA. But back home in Citi Field, Pelfrey enjoys a 3.44 ERA. And he sports a career 3.18 ERA in 34 innings of work against the Rockies. Additionally, in the Mets' last 42 games against a team with a winning record, the Under is 29-11-2.
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Both of these starting pitchers share a deeper sabermetric statistic that we consider important. Isolated Power (ISO) is a sabermetric determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Jimenez and Pelfrey have low ISO's of .105 and .132 respectively which indicates they both have been very stingy regarding giving up extra-base hits. Why are statistics like ISO helpful for us? The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers send Max Scherzer to the mound against the Rays in Game Two of this three-game series in Detroit this evening knowing Scherzer is 6-1 with a sparkling 1.51 ERA in his last seven home team starts. He has also cashed in two of his three home team starts during the month of August in his career, issuing four walks against 23 strikeouts in those games. With Tampa struggling of late in this park (6-10 last 16 games), look for mighty Max to to get the cash once again here tonight. Go with Detroit
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Play on: Detroit

Rocketman
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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Tampa Bay is 68-44 overall this year while Detroit comes in with a 54-58 overall record on the season. Tampa Bay is 35-17 this year against a team with a losing record. Detroit is now 2-8 in the month of August. Detroit has lost 11 of their last 14 overall games. Tampa Bay is scoring 5.6 runs per game on the road this year. Tampa Bay bullpen has a 3.34 ERA overall this year and a 3.35 ERA on the road this season. Jeremy Hellickson is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA overall this year. Hellickson had an awesome outing in his debut going 7 innings and allowing only 3 hits and 2 earned runs. Tampa Bay is 5-0 overall vs Detroit this year. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!