Freddy Wills
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Take Arizona Diamondbacks
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Barry Enright has been surprising many and is doing it on the road too with a 2.45 ERA where he'll be on Tuesday. Enright is backed by a hot Dbacks team especially when they face lefties. They will face Manny Parra who seems to never have a solid start and I expect nothing more than another disaster from Parra.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Parra is just 1-4 this year at home and his ERA overall is 5.67 and he's 6.35 in his last three starts. He'll have his hands full with a powerful Diamondbacks offense that is averaging 5.82 runs per 9 on the road with a .275 average. They are hitting lefties even harder as of late with a .326 average over their last 5 while averaging 10.45 runs per 9.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I don't anticipate Parra to go deep into the game and that will only lead to a inept Brewers bullpen that has been rough around the edges all year long, but holds a 8.16 ERA over their last 10. Diamondbacks should take advantage of this and with value at +122 on a pitcher the Brewers haven't seen I'll take my chances.
Dave Price
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays +103
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Tigers are just 6-21 in their last 27 overall, and I expect their struggles to continue with Scherzer on the hill. The Tigers are just 1-4 in Scherzer's last 5 starts. Plus, they have lost their last 5 games with the Rays. In addition, the struggling Tigers will have their work cut out for themselves against the Rays' Hellickson, who has sizzled in Triple-A (12-3, 2.45 ERA), and who shut down the Twins in last week's MLB debut. It's very difficult to figure out a pitcher you're seeing for the first time, especially one with the stuff Hellickson has. Take the Rays.
Bryan Leonard
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Freddy Garcia has been a godsend for the White Sox this year. Not much was expected from the veteran this season but he's been one of their most consistent starters. Overall 7 of his last 8 starts have been quality ones and he's had a great career against the Twins. In fact, 9 of his last 10 starts against Minnesota have been quality starts. In four starts hosting the Twins he's allowed just 9 earned runs in 28.2 innings of work.
Chicago is on a 22-5 run at home as of late and the Twins are in the midst of a long road trip coming into the windy city after going to Tampa Bay and Cleveland. This is a tough spot for Minnesota and the line is right to back the home standing White Sox.
Jimmy Boyd
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -131
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Mariners responded with a win following the firing of Don Wakamatsu, and I expect them to build on that victory with their ace coming to the hill tonight. Felix Hernandez has been the victim of lousy run support this season, but I'm more than willing to back him here tonight. The Mariners are 11-2 in Hernandez's last 13 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, 9-3 in his last 12 starts vs. the Athletics and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts vs. the A's. Plus, Oakland is just 16-42 in its last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Athletics are also just 8-21 in their last 29 meetings in Seattle. Take the M's.
Steve Janus
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
What a job Buck Showalter has done with the Orioles since taking over the manager job. The Orioles come in at a great value against the Indians on Tuesday, and I think should be the favorite to win in this one. The Orioles send Jake Arrieta to the mound, who pitched really well against the Angeles in his last start giving up just two runs on four hits. The Indians have Justin Masterson on the mound, who has a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts, and has struggled making it deep into games of late.
SPORTS WAGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Colorado –1½ +1.12 over NY METS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
What we have here in terms of the starting pitchers is pure luck vs pure skill and it’s not in the Mets favor. Mike Pelfrey has already peaked this year with his peak level being a durable, reliable, humdrum level. As a ground-baller with poor command, results seem tied to swings of fortune. Way back at the start of the year, Pelfrey was completing a dazzling April -- a month in which he compiled a 4-0 record and a 0.69 ERA. Not surprisingly, his stock was soaring but many pundits branded him a fluke and they were right. Pelfrey's month-to-month performance shows little variation in skills, but luck played a big part in his April performance. Pelfrey's strand rate in April (94%) was thought to be unsustainable and rightly so. The stand rate seen in May and June (73%) normalized somewhat and as a result, Pelfrey’s numbers went south. Over the last 31 days everything has come to a head and now Pelfrey is walking too many batters, he’s allowing a ton of runs and his strand rate was very high once again at (88%). Since June 30, Pelfrey has seen his ERA rise from 2.37 to the current 4.17 Over that stretch covering 28 frames, Pelfrey has allowed a ridiculous 62 hits and in five of those seven starts he barely made it out of the fourth inning. Pelfrey has been batting practice out there and at the end of the day, the fact is he’s just a poor pitcher that got very lucky early on. Ubaldo Jiminez needs no introduction but it is worth noting that the Rocks are once again seeing beach balls and have scored 68 runs over its past 10 games. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Florida +1.74 over WASHINGTON
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Stephen Strasburg will be on a 90-pitch limit in his first start coming off the DL. Add his 23% line-drive rate and 80% strand rate to the mix and a struggle or two in the near term wouldn’t be a shock. In fact, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him limited to 65 pitches, as the Nats are not going to fool around with this guy. Why would they? Anibal Sanchez has performed extremely well in four of his last five starts and he’ll face a Nats team that’s batting .237 in August thus far. Sanchez was hit pretty hard in his last start when he faced Philly and lasted just four innings. However, that was right after he threw a one-hit shutout against the Giants five days earlier and a letdown often follows a true gem. Sanchez has struck out 22 batters over his last 19 frames and could definitely have another good game here. He’s only allowed five jacks all season in 128 innings. The bottom line here is that Strasburg will be limited for sure and it certainly is not out of the question that the Marlins could be leading, tied or down a run in the fifth inning, when Strasburg will be lifted and that creates a great opportunity at a very sweet price. Play: Florida +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
CHICAGO/Minnesota over 9
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
One has to figure at least one or maybe both of these teams to score a bunch. This is the AL’s second-best scoring and best HR venue. Scott Baker has pitched well over his last three starts, but his 1.2 hr/9 is a significant risk in the Cell vs. a CHW team that averages 1.5 HR per game at home. Furthermore, the Twins offense is on fire since the break, averaging an AL-best six-plus runs per game and will face the very hittable Freddy Garcia here. Garcia, too, has had three good starts in a row but he faced the Tigers, Seattle and Oakland over that stretch and now takes a huge step up in class when facing a difficult offense in a difficult hitter’s park. It’s also worth noting that current Twins hitters are batting a collective .400 against Baker (24 for 60) and the conditions tonight do not favor the pitcher. The early report is: partly cloudy, rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 MPH. Game time temperature around 85. But the real temperature for this one is over the total. Play: Chicago/Minnesota over 9 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Triple Threat Sports
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Phoenix (+) over Chicago
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Two teams going in opposite directions here as the Mercury has won nine of twelve and the Sky has lost six of seven. Phoenix is also the much better free throw shooting team (85% to 77%) and has won nine in a row in the series. Take the points in this one.
Info Plays
3* on Diamondbacks/Brewers OVER 9
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Reasons this game goes OVER:
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1.) Arizona is scoring 5.1 RPG against left-handed starters this season. Milwaukee is scoring 5.0 RPG against right-handed starters this year. Arizona's bullpen sports a 6.33 ERA this season and a 7.30 ERA on the road. Milwaukee's relievers have posted a 5.27 ERA this year and a 5.43 ERA at home.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
2.) Barry Enright has been solid this season, but it's been a small sample of just 7 starts and he has faced many weak offenses in the process with the likes of the Nationals, Mets twice, Giants, Marlins, Cubs and Cardinals. This Brewers offense will be the best he's faced all season. Manny Parra is 3-9 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.674 WHIP this season, including 2-6 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.721 WHIP as a starter. Bet the OVER 9 runs.
Doug Upstone
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
For whatever reason, San Diego doesn’t play in the desert and they lost series to dumpy D-Backs. The Padres salvaged the last game of the series with a convincing 10-1 triumph. San Diego has been built around pitching and they find enough ways to score runs despite ranking 12th in the NL in home runs. (Of course playing in the Grand Canyon aka Petco Park doesn’t help)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
With the pitiful Pirates in town, the Friars have a large figure next to their name and favorites with a money line of -175 to -250, who average 0.9 or less homers per game on the season, after a win by six runs or more, are 60-13, 82.2 percent.
JR O'Donnell
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
BOS (+110) vs TOR
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Dice K owns the Jays.... The 64-49 RedSox and their hurler has been light's out and to see him bring this strong record to the Jays has Jr On the Red Sox.. Let's look @ the Red Sox starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka who brings a 2-0 & 2.08 ERA vs the Jays this year & power ful 6-0 with a under 4 ERA in nine starts. The Jays Romero is a poor 1-4 & a 8 + ERA. vs the Red Sox as of late. The Boston Red Sox are very dangerous tonight.
Insider Angles
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
The Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers just barely snuck Over the total last night when the Rays scored two runs in the ninth inning, but we look for a much safer Over on Tuesday.
The Rays are suddenly strapped for pitching, as 10-game winner Jeff Niemann is on the Disabled List and promising youngster Wade Davis looks like he is about to suffer a similar fate with a sore shoulder. Davis was originally slated to start this game, but the start will now be taken by young Jeremy Hellickson.
Yes, Hellickson was impressive in his Major League debut against the Minnesota Twins, allowing only two earned runs on three hits in seven innings. However, short of a Stephen Strasburg, can we really trust a pitcher with all of seven innings of Major League experience to help keep a game Under a relatively low posted total like this, particularly in the American League?
After all, it is not as if Hellickson is matched up with one of the league’s elite pitchers here. Sure, Max Scherzer has been hot lately for the Tigers, but the bottom line is that he is still just 7-8 with a 4.19 ERA for the season, and he still suffers through periods of wildness with 50 walks in 124.2 innings. Scherzer lost his only career start vs. the Rays earlier this season 5-0 despite allowing only two hits in 5.2 innings, as his four walks did him in.
Tampa Bay has a very professional lineup that generally takes advantage of pitchers that put a lot of men on base via free passes, so we look for both teams to score enough runs here to push this game Over this fairly low number.
Pick: Rays/Tigers Over 8
Vernon Croy
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
We are getting great value here with this Rays team who ended their losing streak last night against the Tigers and this pick falls into one of my top MLB systems. The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games after a win in their previous game and they have dominated Central division opponents with 20-7 record. The Detroit Tigers have struggled due to injuries in the second half of the season and they are just 1-7 in their last 8 games against an AL East opponent. The Rays have also dominated the Tigers recently with a perfect 5-0 record against them over their last 5 meetings. Grab the value with the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night.
Frank Jordan
Yankees vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9.5
CJ Wilson has a 4.50 era against the Yankees. AJ Burnett has an era just under 5. Each team is in the top 5 in the majors in runs scored including the Yankees who are the top team. Look for the runs to be blowing up the scoreboard tonight. Play the Over
TEDDY COVERS
Pirates @ Padres
PICK: Over 7
Since it opened, Petco Field has been the single strongest pitcher’s ballpark in all of baseball. The Padres were Under machines at home, with a particularly strong Under trend through the first few months of 2010 thanks to surprisingly effective starting pitching, the single best bullpen in all of baseball, and an anemic lineup that simply couldn’t produce runs in bunches.
But the betting markets have really lagged behind the current realities at Petco over the past few months. San Diego is on a 17-7-1 run to the Over at home in their last 25 home games dating back to June. The Padres lineup is clicking on all cylinders, pounding out 15 runs in their last two games and 20 runs in a three game set against the Pirates less than three weeks ago. Pirates starter Jeff Karstens was on the wrong end of a 9-2 loss to San Diego in that series, entering tonight’s game with a 7.56 career ERA against the Padres. The Pittsburgh bullpen continues to get rocked on a nightly basis – there’s a reason the Pirates have allowed six runs or more seven times in their last nine games.
But the Pirates lineup is in decent current form, scoring 31 runs in their last six games, averaging more than five per contest. Padres starter Wade LeBlanc has tailed off rather dramatically from his red hot start to the season, with a 4.46 ERA since the All Star break. Look for enough offense from both squads to send this game up and over this ultra-low total. 2* Take the Over.
Jack Jones
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
I'll take the Cardinals at this price Tuesday. They made a statement in Game 1 with a 7-3 victory to pull within one game of the Reds in the NL Central. Another win tonight would have St. Louis tied with Cincinnati atop the division. Jamie Garcia is one of the most underrated starters in the league this season at 9-5 with a 2.53 ERA. Garcia is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts vs. Cincinnati.
Johnny Cueto has posted a 6.39 ERA and 1.658 WHIP in 8 career starts versus the Cardinals. He last faced St. Louis on June 1st, allowing 8 earned runs, 11 base runners and 2 home runs in 5 innings. The Cardinals are 5-1 in Garcia's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds are 2-5 in Cueto's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Cards Tuesday.