WUNDERDOG
Game: Connecticut at Washington
Pick: Washington -4
The oddsmakers making Washington a 4-point favorite doesn't make a lot of sense when taking a look at what this Connecticut team has done on the road. If you consider the 3-point home court advantage, we are left with 1. The problem is that Connecticut has beaten LA and Phoenix when they were slumping, Tulsa, and their lone good road win was vs. Indiana. Washington has held teams to an average of -13.1 points per game from their season scoring average at home this season through 13 games, and that isn't going to get it done for Connecticut, who has lost nine road games by 4 or more already. Washington gets the call.
Chris Jordan
Hard not to like the Giants with Timmy Lincecum on the bump.
Lincecum, who is 11-5 with a 3.15 ERA ont he year, is 3-2 with a 2.55 ERA in six starts against the Cubs, who have a paltry .199 batting average against the reigning Cy Young winner.
He's a much better choice than Ryan Dempster, who will likely get shelled once against the Giants.
Dempster is is 1-7 with a 4.59 ERA in 11 starts versus San Francisco.
1♦ SAN FRANCISCO -1.5
Stephen Nover
My hot streak continued on Monday as not only did I easily win my 50-Dime play on the Cardinals, but also cashed on my complementary selection of the underdog Orioles. I am now on a 52-33-1 run on free picks.
On the Tuesday card, I'm going to take the Detroit Tigers at home against the Tampa Bay Rays with Max Scherzer going against rookie Jeremy Hellickson.
This is a case of the Tigers getting healthier, the Rays not playing well and backing a hot Scherzer, who has been excellent at Comerica Park.
The hard-throwing Scherzer has given up just six earned runs during his last four starts spanning 26 innings. During this time frame, Scherzer has as many strikeouts as hits allowed at 23 each. He is 6-2 at home with a 3.23 ERA.
The Tigers have won in six of Scherzer's last seven home outings. The Tigers also are getting back some of their injured players. Carlos Guillen is the latest to come off the DL joining Brandon Inge in the Detroit lineup.
Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six games. The Rays are without their top home run hitter, injured first baseman Carlos Pena.
Hellickson will be making just his second big-league start. He pitched well in his major league debut, beating the Twins, 4-2, eight days ago. The Tigers, though, now have some idea of what they are facing.
Hellickson is the Rays' top pitching prospect. But he's trumped by Scherzer.
3♦ DETROIT
Derek Mancini
Fishy line to say the least. You really have to believe oddsmakers are stupid if you're betting the Red Sox here. They know all about Matsuzaka's incredible numbers against Toronto. They know all about Romero's terrible numbers vs the Red Sox. They know all about the likely absence of Vernon Wells... And still the Blue Jays are favored! You really think oddsmakers are that stupid?
Fact is at some point Matsuzaka's streak against the Blue Jays has to come to an end, and why not tonight? Why not a couple games removed from their 17-run outburst? They just finished sweeping the Rays, and you're telling me they're not good enough to beat the Red Sox, who've been the poster child for inconsistency this season.
Matsuzaka also has to outpitch a surging Romero, who's 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his L4 starts. Of course, everyone remembers his last start agaisnt Boston where he got rocked for 9 runs (5 earned) over just 2 1/3 innings. But he's been money since then, and you know he's looking to this match up for redemption.
Both teams have been swinging the bats well, but righties have fared very poorly at the Rogers Centre, with the Blue Jays going 18-9 against them in night games this season (28-15 overall at home vs righties). That's mainly because the Blue Jays hit righties much better than lefties, batting 65 points higher agains them at home vs lefties (.275 vs .210), while averaging 5.7 runs per game. Play Toronto (Romero) over Boston (Matsuzaka) Tuesday.
3♦ TORONTO
Karl Garrett
Big AL East battle tonight between Boston and Toronto, as the Red Sox look to keep their pursuit of the wild card in their sights.
Toronto has been playing very well of late, winners of 3 straight and 5 of their last 6.
Boston just split 4 with the Yankees, and have been able to win 9 of their last 14 games despite their rash of injuries.
G-Man gonna side with the underdog here, as Boston has gone 7-2 in the season series against Toronto, winning 5 of the 6 games played at Toronto.
Dice-K Matsuzaka has been a big part of Boston's success against Toronto, as he is 2-for-2 in starts against the Jays this year, pitching 13 innings of 3 run ball.
His counterpart Ricky Romero has not been a lucky against the Sox, as he is 1-3 in 5 starts against them since last year, with 19 runs allowed in 20 innings of work.
G-Man going with the Red Sox to handle Romero one more time.
4♦ BOSTON
Bobby Maxwell
We're scoring a FREE winner tonight on the Rangers as they host the Yankees in a battle between the best in the American League.
The Rangers know if they are ever going to be taken seriously in the American League playoffs, they have to serve notice in this series against the Yankees. They are going to win the A.L. West, but will they be a serious contender in the A.L. playoffs? A dominating series against the Yankees here and they will be given a chance.
The players and fans know this and that’s why they will all be pumped to see the Yankees arrive in Arlington. I’m going with them in this one behind the left arm of C.J. Wilson (10-5, 3.30 ERA). Wilson is an impressive 8-2 at home this season with a 3.28 ERA. The Rangers have won each of his last four outings and eight of his last 10.
Wilson’s last home start was against the A’s when he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings on July 29. Prior to that he blanked the Angels on four hits over eight innings of a 1-0 victory. He did face these Yankees back on April 16 in New York and gave up three earned runs in six innings of a 5-1 loss as New York swept the three-game set.
On the hill for the Yankees is A.J. Burnett (9-9, 4.93 ERA) who has been a disaster on the road for New York this season. He is just 5-5 with a 5.50 ERA on the road this season and even though his last two have been solid on the highway, this guy was getting shelled most of the season on the road.
The Yankees are a whopping 23-9 in their last 32 trips to Texas and that’s a stat all the Rangers have heard and they all want to start changing. This is too good of a team to let the Yankees walk all over them like that.
Texas comes in on streaks of 16-5 when Wilson starts, 9-2 on Tuesday, 5-2 at home and 6-1 when Wilson starts at home. The Yankees are just 3-8 in Burnett’s last 11 starts and 1-5 on Tuesdays.
I’m going with the home team that comes into this one with some motivation to beat the pinstripes. Play Texas tonight behind Wilson.
4♦ TEXAS
Michael Cannon
I’m now on a 9-4 run with my last 13 free plays.
Take the Angels on the run line over the Royals.
Dan Haren will start for the Angels and this is where he finally makes a difference for the Angels. The right-hander hasn’t won since June 12, including two losses in as many starts with Los Angeles after being acquired from Arizona.
But Haren sports a solid 3-1 record with a 2.11 ERA in six career games against the Royals.
Kansas City will counter with Bryan Bullington, who is making his first start since September 2008. He was a former No. 1 overall draft pick by Pittsburgh in 2002, but that’s not saying much considering the Pirates 17-year run of failed prospects.
Bullington’s career numbers, 0-6 with a 5.09 ERA in 18 appearances with four different teams, seem to bear that out.
Take the Angels on the run line over the Royals.
3♦ LA ANGELS -1.5
BRETT ATKINS
Tonight's free winner comes on the Dodgers as they will get it done in Philadelphia against the Phillies.
Has anybody been better than Vicente Padilla for the Dodgers lately? This guy has rejuvenated his career in Los Angeles and has completely baffled hitters lately. He hasn’t allowed any team more than two runs in any of his last eight outings.
On Wednesday, Padilla threw a complete-game two-hitter against the Padres as the Dodgers won 9-0. In his last three road starts, he’s completely dominated the Giants, Cardinals and Padres.
I know the Phillies’ Kyle Kendrick has been just as solid lately, but Padilla has been as good as anybody in baseball of late. Kendrick hasn’t seen the Dodgers since 2008 while Padilla dominated Philadelphia last year in a playoff game.
The Los Angeles offense put up 14 runs in a three-game set over the weekend and if they can continue to score runs, this starting staff is very good. Play the Dodgers behind Padilla in this one.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
JAY MCNEIL
New York at Texas
Going to play the Rangers in this one, as the Yankees could be in store for a bit of a meltdown.
Texas hasn't shown much promise against the American League East, and this is a good test for the Rangers to show some life, especially against a team it could face in the playoffs.
Let's play the Rangers in the series opener.
2♦ TEXAS
JOEL TYSON
Last night I went with the Braves as a free play, and obviously that didn't work out so well.
Tonight I will go against the Braves as they play in Houston once again.
The road has not been kind to either the Braves or to their starter Jair Jurrjens.
Atlanta may be 39-15 at home, but on the road they are just 25-33.
Jair Jurrjens may be 4-0 at home with a 1.91 ERA, but on the road he is winless at 0-4 with a 7.63 ERA.
Houston's J.A. Happ has been tough on the Braves, as the former Phillies starter is 2-0 the last 5 times he has faced Atlanta, allowing just 6 runs in 31 frames of work.
I like the chances for a Houston underdog win tonight at Minute Maid Park.
3♦ HOUSTON
MATT RIVERS
Let’s take the Padres on the run line over the Pirates.
San Diego has had little trouble with Pittsburgh recently. The Padres have won six straight against the Buccos, outscoring them 37-15 during that span.
That included a three game sweep back in late July when San Diego outscored Pittsburgh 20-8.
The Bucs have lost 28 of their last 32 roadies, including a 17-game losing streak from late May to late June, a six-game skid going into the All-Star break and a current four-game slide.
Take the Padres on the run line.
3♦ SAN DIEGO -1.5
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
3* graded play on Philadelphia as they host the Dodgers set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game. The ex-Philly Padilla faces his old team and it may not be such a warm welcome there tonight. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 77-39 for 66.4% making 39.8 units since 2004. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings and now facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Dodgers have been struggling against other contending teams. They are just 1-9 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season; 5-13 (-9.8 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game in the second half of the season this season. Philadelphia is in a very strong situation noting they are a near perfect 11-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game in the second half of this season. Kendricks has had excellent success against teams similar to the Dodgers. he is a perfect 11-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season. Phillies bats are coming to life in a big way and that is without Utley and Howard even in the lineup. They are batting 297 with a 366 OBP and scoring 5.3 runs per game over the past seven games. Even Padilla?s 48 MPH curve ball is not going to hold these guys back tonight. Take the Phillies.
Black Widow
1* on New York Yankees +125
Rarely will you get the Yankees as an underdog, and we'll take advantage Tuesday as we back the best team in baseball. The Texas Rangers have had a great season to this point, but A.J. Burnett knows how to pitch against this free-swinging line-up. Burnett is 4-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 9 career starts against Texas. New York is 58-24 (+25.3 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Yankees are 23-9 in their last 32 trips to Texas, and 36-16 in their last 52 meetings with the Rangers overall. Take New York on the Money Line.
DWAYNE BRYANT
TORONTO -125
Let's see... Dice K has a 2.08 ERA in winning his two outings versus the Blue Jays this season, and he's 6-0 with a 3.51 ERA in his last eight starts against them with the Red Sox winning each time. He's also 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven road starts. The Red Sox have regularly roughed up Ricky Romero, who is 1-4 with an 8.76 ERA in six starts against them. Dice K was favored in all of those last eight starts against Toronto, while Romero was the dog in all but one of his six starts against Boston (was -105 at home on 7/17/09). And yet, given how Dice K has owned the Jays and Romero has been crushed by Boston, oddsmakers open Toronto as a -131 favorite tonight against a very public Boston team? Hmm... something smells fishy. I'll make a SMALL action wager on Toronto tonight.
O.C. Dooley
Dodgers -105
The visiting Dodgers come into tonight’s game on a disastrous 1-9 slide on the road while the team batting in the most recent five shots (.156) is disgraceful. Despite those negative the oddsmakers have priced this game at a near pick-em which to me speaks volumes especially since the red-hot Phillies are getting very close to the top spot in the National League East division chase. One of the reasons why this game is a near pick-em has to do with Dodger starter Vincente Padilla who is coming off a TWO HIT gem where his command (77 of 105 pitches for strikes) was outstanding. On the mound for Philadelphia is Kyle Kendrick who has thrived since a brief demotion to the minors, but he has struggled in his career against Los Angeles posting a lofty 7.29 ERA in four chances. One of the Dodgers main offensive threats is Andre Ethier who has 2 homers in 8 lifetime at bats against Kendrick. It has been a deplorable two months at the plate for Los Angeles outfielder Matt Kemp but his career batting average AT Philadelphia (.375) is eye popping. It is amazing that Philadelphia has been on a winning streak with 3 key offensive stars (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino) still sitting on the disabled list. Even with the likes of Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz carrying the attack, the loss of those 3 All Stars at some point has to catch up with the Phillies. My database research indicates that Vincente Padilla who was the Dodgers opening day starter is a sensational 13-4/ROAD long term when the posted total is between 7-and-8’ runs. The Dodgers as a team have WON 4 of the last 6 outings which is a complete reversal from the prior six games which were all defeats