Rob Vinciletti
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -155
The Cardinals have owned the series here at home vs the Pirates winning 19 of the last 25 and all 3 this year. They will look to rebound off a Sunday loss in Milwaukee and take on a Pirates team that erupted for 9 runs in the 7th inning beating the Dodgers 1305 on Sunday night. Pittsburgh has J. Locke on the mound and he has an elevated 6.43 road era. He will oppose Cardinals righty C. Martinez who is 9-1 at home with a 2.83 era. St. Louis also has a solid bullpen that has a 2.09 home Era. Pittsburgh is 0-5 as a road dog off a 5+ home win. Look for St. Louis to take the opener here tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7½
Nice pitching matchup to kick things off tonight when Chris Tillman and Taijuan Walker toe the rubber for their respective teams. Tillman has dominated the Mariners and he's been on fire in his last six starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.09 ERA & 0.85 WHIP, while not allowing a single home run. All six starts landed under the posted total and I expect more of the same in this one. Seattle counters with Walker, who owns a misleading ERA. Walker's WHIP is a solid 1.22 overall, and an even better 1.01 at home with a .220 BAA. Walker has thrown three straight quality starts. Add in Seattle's 27th-ranked scoring average per game and 27th ranked batting average, along with the Orioles' third best pen and I believe we're in for a low scoring contest. One final note: The Orioles rank in the bottom-third in the league in road batting average and OBP, and Seattle ranks in the bottom-third in both categories at home.
Marc Lawrence
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -155
Edges - Cardinals: Carlos Martinez 17-3 with 2.61 ERA overall team starts this season, including 7-0 with 2.20 ERA last seven. Pirates: Jeff Locke 6.43 ERA away as opposed to 3.16 ERA home this season. With the Redbirds 17-3 the last twenty games as a host in this series, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Art Aronson
Nationals vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 6½
The visitors hand the ball to Joe Ross (3-3, 2.80 ERA), who held Arizona to one run on five hits over six innings, walking none and striking out seven on Thursday. The rookie now has six consecutive quality starts, a span in which he's surrendered only 11 runs in 40 total innings; also note that Ross owns a spectacular 2.25 ERA in all "night" games this year. The home side counters with Zack Greinke (11-2, 1.71 ERA), who is coming off his worst outing so far this year, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over six innings, walking two, while striking out eight. It was bound to happen for Greinke, those types of games happen to every pitcher at some point over the course of the season, so with that expected "dud" out of the way, the Dodgers' ace will be looking to bounce back with his trademark dominance and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he's 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA at home and owns a tiny 1.72 ERA in all "night" games. There's no question in our minds that the UNDER is worthy of a second look in this one.
Jim Feist
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7½
Both teams have great pitching depth and defense, but shaky offenses. Pittsburgh ranks 16th in baseball in runs scored and has Jeff Locke going, who has a 3.09 ERA against St. Louis in 11 innings. The Under is 4-1 in Locke's last five starts vs. the Cardinals. St. Louis is 36-14-2 under the total at home and 21-9-2 under against a team with a winning record. Hard throwing Carlos Martinez is on the hill with a 2.57 ERA and an 11-4 record. The Under is 10-1-1 in Martinez's last 12 starts overall, 5-1 under at home.
Big Al
Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
Pick:Tampa Bay
We played on Tampa Bay in its last game, Sunday, at home vs. the New York Mets, and were rewarded with a 4-3 victory. That was Tampa's 2nd straight win. And, after an off day on Monday, I look for the Rays to notch their 3rd win in a row to move one game over .500 on the season. Tonight, Tampa will hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, who already defeated the Braves, 5-3, back in May. That game was in Atlanta, but Ramirez has done his best work, at home in Tampa, as he has a 3.00 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in front of his home faithful this season. The Braves did win 3 of 4 at home this past weekend, but those games were against the floundering Marlins, who have dropped 10 of their last 12 games. And speaking of floundering, that's precisely what Atlanta has been doing on the road, as it's lost 13 of its last 15 games outside of Fulton County.
Wunderdog
New York @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -118
The New York Yankees have hit an offensive drought, and have not produced a run in 26 straight innings. They like rookie starting pitcher Luis Severino who made his debut five days ago in a 2 run, five inning, performance while fanning seven. The Tribe has finally been swinging the bats and they will send Carlos Carrasco to the hill to face the Yankees. Carrasco has had a very good season with an 11-8 record and a 3.76 ERA, and a WHIP under 1.10. This game shows 12 year situations, one against the Yankees that has them at 65-131, and a pair on the Tribe which are 84-35 as well as 90-39. The Yankees have struggled recently vs. right-handed pitching where they are just 1-5 in their last six.
DAVE COKIN
RED SOX @ MARLINS
PLAY: RED SOX -112
Nothing on the line here, as two of the game’s 2015 nonentities open a series in Miami. Lots of good tickets are sure to be available as the Red Sox take on the Marlins. It’s probably a good bet that a substantial percentage of fans in attendance tonight will be transplanted New Englanders pulling for the Red Sox. I like their chances of going home happy.
Steven Wright will look to stay warm as he’s off a scintillating effort last week against the Yankees. Like most knuckleball pitchers, Wright can be very erratic. If he’s commanding the pitch, he’ll do well. If not, it’s a soft offering that can get very hard. But I like the idea of backing Wright off a very positive performance.
Justin Nicolino has been called up to make this start for Miami. There seems to be varying opinion on the prospect status of this lefty. Some believe his command of the strike zone is so good that he can become a back of the rotation starting pitcher. Others are convinced his stuff just isn’t good enough for him to survive as a starter in the big leagues, and that his future is more likely in the bullpen, perhaps as a lefty specialist.
I’m pretty consistent in my appraisals. When I see K rates as low as Nicolino’s at the minor league level, I just don’t deem it likely he can start in the majors and have any degree of success. I’m not suggesting the only guys who can pitch in The Show are swing and miss types who blow away batters. But when the contact rate is so high at the lower levels, I’ll have to be convinced that the stuff can work against the best hitters on the planet.
The Red Sox have had a miserable season, but Miami is the worst team in MLB right now. Boston has not done well against lefty opposition, but I would suspect they can do some damage here. The price certainly isn’t a major obstacle and at least I’m getting Wright in the right mode, coming off a very strong start. I’ll give the Red Sox a roll tonight.
Sleepyj
Cleveland -120
The Cleveland Indians have been rather hot..In the last 4 games that team has a total of 38 runs scored..That's a ton of runs in a short period of time..So it's very clear the bats are hot for the Indians right now..Now they get the Bronx Bombers in town and they would like nothing more to give the home crowd a reason to cheer once again..Yankees on the flip side have been ice cold...They have a total of 4 runs in 5 games..Not only can't they score, but the hits are hard to come by right now for the Yankees..Sure this team can erupt at any time but facing a guy like Carrasco will pose a few challenges for this lineup..First off the Yanks hit the RHP worse then the LHP..They get the rightie tonight with Carrasco...I like the fact that he has struggled at home..He hasn't been razor sharp in Cleveland and tonight looks to be a good spot/situation for him...He is coming off two of his best outings of the year and facing a team that's cold can make him deal another great game..His ERA is at a season low right now at 3.76..His WHIP is 1.09 which is very good..Carrasco won't walk many batters and his strikeouts are up to 7 a game...Yanks haven't seen him yet, so this is advantage pitcher....Yanks will get Severino on the mound tonight..He is a baller and has the goods to shutdown any lineup..I just worry he may be facing a team that's way to hot right now to get away without giving up any runs..His stats are great however..2.00 ERA in the minors and he looked very good in his debut against Boston..Sometimes the 2nd game around for a young guy can be a disaster..I think we have a shot at that tonight with the hot hitting Indians...Yanks get behind in this game and it's all over..We are getting a good price with the Yanks bettors all over them to avoid another loss..I'm going the other way tonight...Indians chop em up !!
Brandon Lee
Seattle Mariners -115
Seattle's Taijuan Walker may have a 4.67 ERA on the season, but enters tonight's game with a 2.82 ERA and strong 0.851 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Baltimore's Chris Tillman had been pitching very well himself, but he had to miss a start to recover from an injured ankle and I look for him to be a bit rusty here on the road, where he has a 4.38 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 9 road starts. Orioles as a team are just 10-24 in their last 34 road games played at night and Seattle is 14-5 in their last 19 after batting .200 or worse as a team over their last 3 games.
Will Rogers
Tigers vs. Royals
Play: Over 7½
The Kansas City Royals are coming off four consecutive wins and shut out division-rivals the Detroit Tigers in a 4-0 victory in the opener of a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium last night. The Royals turn to a struggling pitcher tonight though, so it would be no surprise to see a high scoring affair.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to Yordano Ventura (6-7, 5.29) who was lit up for six runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings at Comerica Park on August 6 his last start. He's compiled a 6.75 ERA in five starts since his return from the disabled list and has conceded 10 runs on 16 hits and six walks in 11 innings of work against the Tigers on the season. Detroit will counter with Anibal Sanchez (10-9, 4.82 ERA) who was matched-up against Ventura on August 6 when he conceded four runs on five hits and four walks.
2. Previous History - The Tigers have seen the total go over at a rate of 18-7-2 in their last 27 road games, while the Royals have trended toward the over at a rate of 14-3-1 in Ventura's last 18 starts.
3. X-Factor - Ian Kinsler is 4-for-6 with one double against Ventura this season and he's batting .429 so far in August.
Jimmy Boyd
St. Louis Cardinals -148
St Louis has a 5-game lead over the Pirates in the NL Central and will be extremely motivated to add to that margin in this 3-game series at home. The Cardinals also will be motivated to get some revenge, as they lost 3 straight in Pittsburgh to close out a 4-game series before the All-Star break. St Louis is an incredible 40-16 at home this season and 19-6 in their last 25 home games against the Pirates (3-0 this season).
The Cardinals also have a decisive advantage on the mound. St Louis will send out Carlos Martinez, who is 11-3 with a 2.61 ERA in 20 starts. The Pirates will counter with Jeff Locke, who is just 6-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 21 starts. Locke also has an ugly 6.43 ERA and 1.690 WHIP over 8 road starts.
The Cardinals are 16-2 this season off a 1-run loss, 14-2 in Martinez's last 16 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher and a perfect 11-0 in Martinez's last 11 starts after he allowed 1 or less earned runs in his last outing.
Mike Lundin
Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +109
The Toronto Blue Jays are on a ridiculous run winning eight on the bounce and 11 of their last 12 games. I like their success to continue when they host the Oakland A's for the opener of a three-game set at Rogers Centre Tuesday. Drew Hutchison will take the ball for the Jays and he's 8-1 with a 2.69 ERA through 11 home starts for the year. He has an 8.08 run-support average over the season while the A's rank last in the majors with 2.95 runs per game since July 21. They'll send Kevin Graveman to the hill and he's already felt the wrath of the Jays' bats on one occasion this season when he allowed six runs on six hits and three walks with three homers over 5 1/3 frames. The A's have lost each of his last five starts overall with Graveman going 0-3 behind a 6.20 ERA.
Notes
Oakland is 2-9 in its last 11 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and Toronto is 10-1 in its last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Toronto is 5-0 in Hutchison's last five starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 13-3 in his last 16 home starts overall.
Chase Diamond
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +154
This game has the 45-68 Phillies at the 55-56 Arizona. Well I'm not a David Buchanan fan this guy is brutal I do believe he will be fighting to keep his place in the rotation this week and with Jeremy Hellickson on the mound who has also struggled this year and the Phillies bats as hot as they are this is a great plus money chance for us. The Phillies won't be happy after that 10 point beat down yesterday. 70% of the public backing the Diamondbacks here yet this line is moving the other way.