Jesse Schule
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -192
The Blue Jays are by far the highest scoring team in baseball, and they are on a roll, coming off eight straight wins. I think they'll extend that run tonight, in spite of the fact that they are sending a struggling pitcher to the mound. Drew Hutchison will toe the slab for the home team, and he's been getting rocked in the second half of the season. Hutchison (10-2, 5.42 ERA) was torched for seven runs on seven hits over just five innings in a no decision at home versus the Twins his last time out. He has a record of 2-0 in four starts since the All Star break, but it comes with an inflated 5.85 ERA. The A's hand the ball to Kendall Graveman, who was rocked by the Blue Jays in Oakland a few weeks ago. Graveman (6-7, 3.90 ERA) was torched for six runs on six hits, including three home runs over just 5 1/3 innings in a 7-1 home loss on July 21. The right-hander has lost five straight, and his ERA is an unsightly 6.16 in four starts in the second half. Josh Donaldson hit his 31st home run of the season on Sunday, and he leads the majors with 83 RBIs. He's done most of the damage at Rogers Center, where he's batting .344 with 20 home runs and 50 RBIs.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +125 over CHICAGO
As we head into the final six weeks of the season there are a bunch of overpriced games to choose from almost daily because the market sees these teams as strong bets with a high win expectation. However, these “also rans” like the Brewers are playing under no pressure whatsoever and get extra motivated to make life difficult on a potential playoff team. What we know for sure is that the Brewers are dangerous, especially on the road and they have an edge here on the mound. Taylor Jungmann has been absolutely electric since being called up in early June. Nine of his 11 starts have resulted in pure dominance, including all six of his starts on the road. He is 4-1 in those six road starts, where he has a 2.36 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 42 innings. His 3.14 xERA on the road is slightly higher than his actual ERA, but his skill set (52% groundballs, 7.7 K’s/9, 2.6 BB’s/9) is solid and worthy of a wager in this price range against Dan Haren.
Haren’s value takes a considerable hit as he is forced to take his talents from South Beach, where he posted a 3.42 ERA over 21 starts, to the Windy City. Haren has allowed more home runs (21) than all but six qualified starters this season, so his relocation from one of the more underrated pitchers parks in the game (Marlins Park) to the launching pad that is Wrigley Field is likely to have a disastrous effect on his surface stats (ERA and WHIP) over the final six weeks. Pitching for the Marlins, Haren would never be in this price range against anyone. Pitching for the Cubbies and he’s already overpriced. In his first start for Chicago, Haren put the Cubs in a hole early, allowing a home run to Gregory Polanco, a single to Pedro Alvarez in the first inning and a home run to Andrew McCutchen in the third inning. The Pirates added one more in the fifth on an RBI single by Aramis Ramirez. Haren now brings his 86 mph fastball, his 6% swing and miss rate, his 31%/49% groundball/fly-ball split and his 4.41 xERA (5.41 xERA over his last five starts) to Wrigley. No thanks.
CLEVELAND -1½ +181 over N.Y. Yankees
The Yankees couldn’t have picked a worse time to face the Indians. Underachievers this entire year with perhaps the best starting pitching in the eague, Cleveland woke up this past weekend against the Twinkies with an explosion of hits and runs. The Tribe and especially Terry Francona would absolutely love to knock the Yankees off their perch and we like their chances of doing just that. It’s no secret that New York scored one run in their three-game set against the Blue Jays over this past weekend. That one-run came on a jack by Mark Texeira that was interfered with by a fan. Some say Ben Revere would have caught that. Regardless, the Yanks have scored two runs or less in five straight. They have four runs over their last six games and will come into this series cold as ice and facing one of the best pitchers in the league.
Carlos Carrasco is the only starter in MLB not named Clayton Kershaw who can boast the same sharp skills the first, second and third time through the order. Carrasco has 147 K’s in 136 innings with just 28 walks issued. He brings a 14% swing and miss rate, a 62%/16% groundball/line-drive rate over his past 8 starts, not to mention the best xERA in all of baseball over that same span of 2.42. You could spot -120 here with the Indians and you’re still getting outstanding value because Carlos Carrasco should be priced in the same range as Kershaw and Greinke but he’s not. He’s priced in the same range as guys like Jeremy Guthrie and Bartolo Colon. Do you know how ludicrous that is? Incidentally, current Yanks have 12 hits in 50 career AB’s versus Carrasco (.240) but that’s before this year. Nine of those 12 hits were singles.
Luis Severino allowed two runs - one earned - and two hits with no walks and seven strikeouts over five innings in a loss Wednesday, Aug. 5 against the Red Sox. Yeah, the kid pitched well but so what. It was his first MLB start, so of course he was extra jacked up. Besides, he threw 94 pitches in those five innings so it wasn’t as if he was breezing. In fact, Severino’s first-pitch strike rate in that game was 28% (!) and we’ve never seen a rate that low. Severino is a great prospect but the reports are that he has trouble hitting his spots (see our MLB call-up section for a more in depth report). He’s also a raw rookie. Very few arrive at this level and dominate. There are growing pains and Severino’s profile is one that says he will not dominate so early in his career. Severino is a guy with just 11 games above A-Ball and now he’s being thrown into a pennant race where he’s priced like Masahiro Tanaka. Again, spot the short price if you like because that’s great value. We’re choosing to spot the 1½-runs because that too is outstanding value and so, too, is the payoff.
ARIZONA -1½ +128 over Philadelphia
The Phillies have had a very good run since the All-Star break but it ended last night with a 13-3 defeat at this park. We expect more of the same here. David Buchanan has made nine starts this season, none of which have been of the pure quality start variety. Buchanan is actually 2-1 in four starts since being recalled, albeit with a 5.56 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He has displayed rotten skills this season that have no place in a starting rotation that look like this: 6.12 xERA, 1.75 WHIP, 19 BB, 25 K’s in 47 innings. On the road in his career, Buchanan is 2-8 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 14 starts. That was mostly his first time through the league. This is a guy that is only filling in for now. In a year or two, he’ll be counting heads on the bus. David Buchanan is the guy that gets picked last in a schoolyard pick-up game.
The D-Backs are playing some really good ball right now. They’ve won 11 of their past 16 games with only series loss over that stretch occurring in Houston. Jeremy Hellickson has never been high on our radar. For years we constantly noted he was outpitching his xERA by a wide margin. Last year, it caught up to him and his struggles continued well into the first three months of this year. Because of those early struggles, Hellickson brings a 5.06 ERA into this start but things have drastically changed to the good for him. Hellickson had a strong June. He carried his excellent June with a strong July: 8.3 K’s/9, 1.9 BB’s/9, 51% groundballs, 12.2% swing and miss rate, 65% first-pitch strikes. Hellickson’s last three games at home were against Milwaukee, Miami and Colorado. He threw a combined 20 innings over those three starts and allowed just 12 hits and three earned runs with a BB/K split of 3/18. Many bettors will dismiss Hellickson's resurgence given his recent history of mediocrity, but these are no longer mediocre skills. The underlying numbers says the resurgence is completely legit and he now owns skills that are worth investing in.
Power Sports
Pittsburgh vs. St. Louis
Pick: Under 7.5
This is a rare instance where I expect the majority of bettors to be on the Under. Really, that shouldn't be a surprise. St. Louis is, by far, MLB's top Under team at 40-67-4, not to mention baseball's best overall team. While they are #1 in run prevention, Pittsburgh isn't far behind at #3 in that department.
The Bucs are off an impressive three-game sweep of the Dodgers over the weekend & every game went Over. A huge nine-run rally put the punctuation mark on said sweep Sunday night & getting a day off between series is potentially huge for the visitors here. Also surprising is the fact that the last time these NL Central rivals met, three of the four games went Over. But the number is ideal here w/ the home team favored and a half-run to work with over the key number of 7. Might the bottom of the ninth not be played tonight? It's fairly likely.
St. Louis is allowing just 1.9 rpg its last seven w/ opposing hitters batting a collective .174. The pitching staff had turned in three straight shutouts prior to Sunday's loss in Milwaukee. Tonight, they have Carlos Martinez, he of a 17-3 team start record, on the mound. Martinez has allowed 1 ER or less in five of his last six starts. The Under is 38-16-2 this season at Busch Stadium.
Bob Balfe
Indians -120 over Yankees
The Yankees bats were red hot a week ago, but have cooled and it looks as if they are heading into another slump. Carlos Carrasco has been a horse this year and is having himself a fine season. Luis Severino pitched excellent in his only outing this year, but there is no comparing these two pitchers just yet. At this price Carrasco holds tremendous value. Take the Indians.
Bill Marzano
Orioles at Mariners
Play: Orioles
I really like the Baltimore Orioles in this game vs the Seattle Mariners...statistically this is a pretty even matchup pitching wise but I have to lean on the Orioles and C.Tillman...Tillman is 6-0 in his career vs Seattle and 3-0 in his last five starts...Tillman has a career 2.03 ERA vs Seattle and held them to a .172 combined batting average...C.Davis is red hot for the Orioles and Tillman must find a way to control R.Cano and N.Cruz...I'm surprised the Orioles are listed as the dog but I will gladly take them in this spot.
GoodFella
Toronto TT Over 4.5
Oakland SP Graveman is not in good form. He's allowed at least 3 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, while not getting past the 5th inning in 4 of those 5 starts. These Jays knocked him around for 6 runs just 3 weeks ago, so they have exposure and success vs Graveman as well. The Jays have won 8 straight ball games and their loaded lineup is clicking. I expect them to get to Graveman again eventually and then we get that poor Oakland bullpen. A very nice hitters venue this evening at Rogers Centre. Bottom line for me here, is that I definitely expect these Blue Jays to plate at least 5 runs before all the dust settles in this game.
Drew Martin
Milwaukee at Chicago
Play: Milwaukee +120
The Chicago Cubs host their National League Central brethren the Milwaukee Brewers tonight in the opener of a three-game set. It will be Dan Haren’s first time pitching in Wrigley wearing a Cubs jersey. He was acquired by the Cubs on July 31st and has made one start against the Pirates since joining the club, allowing 3 runs through 5 innings. Haren has not fared well against current Brewers who have a career OPS mark of .914. When narrowing down the numbers to the last two years the Brewers team OPS is a sky high 1.326 off the veteran starter. With diminished velocity and a desire to retire after the season, Haren doesn’t offer much in the way of upside. His xFIP of 4.64 is a good indication he’s likely to struggle the remainder of the season should he stick in the rotation. Taylor Jungmann takes the mound for the Brewers in what has been a spectacular rookie year. He sports a 2.26 ERA alongside a 2.89 FIP through 71.2 innings pitched. Jungmann had a very impressive 7 strikeouts in 5.2 innings against the Cubs earlier this season. Milwaukee as a team is obviously nothing to get excited about but the starting pitching mismatch and price makes them worth a play this evening.
Brandon Shively
Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Play: Under 7.5
I like this to be a lower scoring game tonight. Jungmann has a 2.36 ERA on the road this season. He faced the Cubs earlier this year and we saw a 4-1 final score. Haren takes the mound for the Cubs and he brings a 1.12 WHIP into tonight's game. In 4 career starts vs. the Brewers, Haren has allowed 1 ER or less in 3 of the 4 starts. I think we see Haren at his best tonight as he shows Cubs fans why they acquired him before the trade deadline. The wind is expected to be blowing in also at around 10 MPH which can also keep the ball in play tonight. The UNDER went a PERFECT 3-0 earlier in the season when these two teams played @ Wrigley Field and the UNDER is 15-5 the L20 matchups @ Wrigley. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jungmann's L4 vs. the NL Central and the UNDER is 8-0 in the Cubs L8 games following a day of rest. Neither offense has been making much noise lately. The Cubs have gone UNDER 60% of the time this season when a home favorite and the Brewers have gone UNDER 65% of the time as a road dog.
Tony Stoffo
Colorado vs. New York
Play: Under 7
The Rockies send Chris Rusin to the bump tonight. The left hander is 3-4 with a 4.66 ERA on the season and saw his winless streak reach eight games on Wednesday despite allowing three runs and eight hits in five innings of a no-decision versus Seattle. Rusin is 1-3 record with a 5.40 ERA on the road. Colorado have plated only seven runs during their seven-game skid at Citi Field. All 7 games in this series in New York have gone Under the Total over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 8-3 when Colorado is a road underdog of +200 to +225 over the last three seasons. Matt Harvey trots out for the Mets sporting a 10-7 record with a 2.76 ERA. He has yielded only 11 earned runs in his last nine outings but only has a 4-3 mark to show for it. The right hander is 1-0 when in his two games against Colorado with an ERA of 0.60 and a WHIP of 0.600 with the Under being 2-0 in both contests. The Under is also 7-1 in the Mets' last 8 Tuesday games. The Under is 14-8 when the Mets face left-handed starters. Take the Under for 5 Units
Dave Price
Minnesota Twins -120
The Minnesota Twins are desperate for a victory as they've gone 1-7 in their last eight games overall to lose their lead on the AL wild card race. They return home from a brutal 7-game road trip and will be motivated for a win tonight against one of their contenders for that wild card spot in the Texas Rangers. Kyle Gibson has pitched great at home this season, going 5-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 12 starts in Minnesota. Yovani Gallardo has struggled of late for Texas, going 1-0 in spite of a 7.80 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three starts. Gibson is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus Texas, allowing only 2 earned runs in 13 innings. The Rangers are 0-4 in Gallardo's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Twins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The Twins are 5-1 in Gibson's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles +113
The Baltimore Orioles (57-54) should not be underdogs to the Seattle Mariners (52-61) tonight. They have a lot more to play for right now as they are only two games behind the Los Angeles Angels for the final wild card spot in the American League after last night's 3-2 victory.
Plus, Baltimore has one of the hottest starters in baseball on the mound. Chris Tillman is 6-0 with a 2.97 ERA in his last 10 starts, and he has a 0.38 ERA in three since the All-Star Break. Tillman is also 6-0 with a 2.09 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners, having never lost to them.
Taijuan Walker has no business being favored here. The right-hander is 8-7 with a 4.67 ERA in 22 starts this season. He sports a 9.81 ERA and 2.997 WHIP in his lone career start against Baltimore. That came on May 19 of this season as he allowed four runs and 11 base runners in 3 2/3 innings of a 4-9 loss.
The Orioles are 26-12 in Tillman's last 38 starts as a road underdog. Baltimore is 8-2 in Tillman's last 10 starts overall. The Orioles are 22-8 in their last 30 vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 1-4 in Walker's last five starts vs. AL East opponents.
Doug Upstone
Arizona Diamondbacks -162
Play On home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like ARIZONA with a team batting average in .255 to .269 range, against a poor NL starting pitcher (ERA of 5.70 or higher), with an on-base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games. In this instance, the hits just keep coming for teams like the D-Backs and against these weak hurlers they are 65-16 since '97.
Joe Gavazzi
San Diego -117
Last night, the Padres snapped their 6-game losing streak against the Cincinnati Reds team who has become their personal whipping boy. The Padres have now cashed 8 of 10 against the Reds. That loss also dropped Cincinnati to 1-5 of late in which they have batted less than .200. It also dipped the Reds 'mark to 12-35 as road dog to +150. Tonight's starter, Lorenzen is not the answer. In his most recent 6 starts, Lorenzen is 0-5 with an 8.04 ERA. In his recent 33 2/3 IP, Lorenzen has a .404 OBP, due in no small part to 22 free passes in that timeframe. The Reds have won just 2 of 7 Lorenzen starts in which he has a PLAY AGAINST mark of a 1.76 road WHIP. San Diego offense gets back in gear tonight.
Nelly
Milwaukee Brewers + over Chicago Cubs
While it has been a season to forget for the Brewers, Taylor Jungmann has provided a spark for a pitching-deprived team. In 11 starts Jungmann owns a 2.26 ERA and in each of his last eight starts he has allowed two or fewer earned runs. There is really no difference between his home road numbers with Jungmann featuring a 0.93 WHIP on the road this season and he has walked just 21 batters in over 71 innings which is important facing very patient Chicago lineup. The Cubs beat Jungmann in late July at Miller Park but he didn't pitch poorly and the lowly Brewers are 5-2 in his last seven starts. Milwaukee's pitching staff has actually allowed the second fewest hits in the NL since the break and the Cubs are the third worst team in the NL since the break in producing extra-base hits. With wins in 10 of the last 11 games this price is inflated for Chicago at home even through Dan Haren offers a league-average starting option and the weak point in a very good Chicago rotation. Haren allowed four runs in five innings in his Chicago debut, allowing two home runs and striking out only three as the veteran right-hander has not topped five strikeouts in any of his last seven starts. Haren has allowed at least three runs in five of his last eight starts and the Brewers have good recent scoring numbers vs. right-handed pitching. The bullpen numbers are remarkably similar of late and while Milwaukee's offense has been limited since dealing some of the best hitters on the team Jungmann has far more potential for a high ceiling start going against the NL's most strikeout-prone team in the second half.