Vegas Butcher
Milwaukee Brewers +127
The Cubs are coming off a huge 4-game home sweep of the defending champs, putting them up 3.5 games over San Fran for the 2nd wild-card spot. Today though, I think they’re at a disadvantage on the mound. Haren is Chicago’s worst starter, and he’s been terrible as of late. In the last 4 games he’s allowed 8 HR’s, 13 runs, and has registered only 12 K’s in 23 innings of work. He has a 7.5 FIP and 5.5 xFIP mark in these last 4 outings. Haren has a 3.5 ERA on the year but his 4.7 FIP is a full 1.2 runs higher, the 4th worst E-F mark in the league. I expect him to continue regressing as the season goes on. By comparison, Jungmann has been flat out dealing lately. He has a 26% K-rate, has allowed 0 HR’s, and has a 2.2/3.3 FIP/xFIP in his last 4 starts. Actually Jungmann has allowed only 2 HR’s on the year and his 0.25 HR/9 rate is one of the best in the majors. Compare that to 1.5 HR/9 for Haren. It’s important to note that Chicago has 5 lefties in the lineup (out of 8) today, which actually plays to Jungmann’s advantage. On the season, he’s been better against lefties (2.6 FIP) than right-handers (3.2 FIP). Milwaukee has an elite bullpen and a much better starter on the mound tonight. Both offenses are a wash. My model has this one at +102 Brewers so I’ll grab the value with them tonight.
Los Angeles Angels -122
Two factors in play for me here: #1) Santiago’s first start against his former team and #2) White Sox can’t hit lefties. Chicago ranks 29th offensively against left-handers and they’re 29th in ISO against them as well. Santiago has allowed 5 HR’s in his last 3 starts but chances are pretty decent that he won’t give up any tonight. In addition, this is his first start against his former team after leaving prior to last season. Typically I’ve noticed pitchers perform ‘better’ than expected against their former mates. What Santiago has going for him is that he’s being opposed by Carlos Rodon, who has really been struggling lately. In the last 4 starts, he has a 5.0 FIP and 4.3 xFIP. He’s also performed worst at home (21% K-rate; 15% BB-rate; 0.8 HR/9; 4.7/4.7 FIP/xFIP) than on the road (25% K-rate; 11% BB-rate; 0.7 HR/9; 3.3/3.3 FIP/xFIP). Angels have a righty-heavy lineup out there (as they always do) and Rodon is much worse against right-handers (4.8 FIP) than lefties (2.2 FIP – elite) this season. I think Angels bounce back after yesterday’s loss and grab a win tonight.
OC Dooley
Padres -115
The fact that San Diego is starting a rookie pitcher tonight is offset by the fact that the entire current Cincinnati starting rotation are all first-year starters. In the past six trips to the mound Michael Lorenzen of the Reds has posted a disastrous EIGHT ERA which gives tonight's hosts a big advantage. Even though San Diego has been one of baseball's biggest failures this campaign they did not dump salary at the the teade deadline and still have an offense with a pair of 60 RBI performers (Justin Upton and Matt Kemp). Making his major league debut tonight is Colin Rea (baseball's #2 overall pitching prospect) who represented San Diego in the Futures Game during All Star weekend. Rea who has a fastball clocked in the 90's has a SUB-TWO ERA spanning the entire campaign will attempt to help the Padres improve to 12-5 in this "series" versus the Reds
Stephen Nover
A's / Blue Jays Over 8.5
The worst pitching matchup of the series goes today and the over/under number is reasonable.
Kendall Graveman hasn't won in more than five weeks. Graveman faced the Blue Jays at home and gave up six earned runs - including three homers - in 5 1/3 innings. Now he's throwing at a much more hitter-friendly ballpark against the league's top offense.
Graveman pitches to contact. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts. That's rough when facing the Blue Jays, who rank No. 1 in runs and OPS and are No. 2 in homers.
I don't trust Blue Jays starter Drew Hutchison either. He's the weak link in Toronto's starting rotation with a 5.42 ERA. Hutchinson is not in good form giving up 17 runs on 21 hits in his last three starts spanning 14 innings.