SPORTS ADVISORS
L.A. Dodgers (68-45) at San Francisco (61-51)
The Dodgers hand the ball to southpaw Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.61 ERA) as they continue their three-game series at AT&T Park against the Giants, who will counter with rookie Joe Martinez (2-0, 5.87).
Los Angeles put the brakes on just its second three-game losing skid of the season with Monday’s 4-2 victory. Still, the Dodgers are just 6-11 in their last 17 games (4-4 on the road) and they’re on additional plunges of 1-4 against right-handed starters and 3-10 in the second game of a series. On the positive end, Joe Torre’s club is on runs of 47-19 in N.L. West action and 9-2 on Tuesday.
San Francisco has dropped two in a row and three of its last four, all at home. Still, the Giants are on surges of 37-18 at home, 10-4 versus left-handed starters, 7-1 at home against lefties, 4-2 as an underdog and 5-1 on Tuesday.
The Dodgers are 6-4 against the Giants this season, but they’re only 3-6 in their last nine in San Francisco since 2008.
Wolf has made 24 starts this year, yet has just 11 decisions, the latest no-decision coming Thursday at home against Atlanta. In that contest, Wolf was in line for a loss after surrendering four runs on nine hits in seven innings, but the Dodgers turned a 4-2 defeat into a 5-4 win courtesy of Andre Ethier’s walk-off three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth. It was the second straight time that Wolf gave up four runs and nine hits, a mini slump that follows a stretch of six consecutive quality starts.
L.A. is 4-1 in Wolf’s last five Tuesday outings, 9-3 in his last 12 as a favorite and 5-2 in his last seven against N.L. West rivals, but it has dropped four of his last five starts on the road. In fact,
Wolf is only 4-4 despite a stellar 3.04 ERA in 12 road contests, with the Dodgers going 5-7. Wolf faced the Giants in San Francisco on April 27 and gave up three unearned runs in six innings, with the Dodgers falling 5-4. He’s 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 14 career starts against the Giants.
Martinez earned a 10-6 victory in his first career start on Wednesday at Houston, giving up three runs in five innings. It was his first appearance since April 9 when the right-hander suffered multiple skull fractures after being struck in the head by a line drive in a home game against Milwaukee. In two relief appearances at home (both versus the Brewers), Martinez gave up two runs on four hits in 2 2/3 innings (6.75 ERA), but he did earn a victory on April 7.
The Dodgers have stayed under the total in five of their last six on the road, but the over is 6-3 in their last nine overall and 5-2 in their last seven against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 20-9-3 in the Giants’ last 32 N.L. West contests, 8-3 in their last 10 at home and 4-1 in their last five versus southpaw starters. However, the over is 11-4-1 in San Francisco’s last 16 games as a home underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
Tampa Bay (61-51) at L.A. Angels (66-44)
Rookie David Price (5-4, 4.91 ERA) goes after his third straight win when he leads the Rays against Ervin Santana (4-6, 7.20) and the Angels in the middle game of a three-game set at Angel Stadium.
Los Angeles got two home runs from Vladimir Guerrero – his 399th and 400th of his career – and held off Tampa Bay in an 8-7 slugfest on Monday. The Angels are on sizzling runs of 37-15 overall, 10-4 at home, 6-0 against A.L. East squads, 13-3 as an underdog, 23-7 as a home pup and 57-28 against southpaw starters. Additionally, Mike Scioscia’s club has dominated Tampa over the years, winning 51 of the last 75 meetings overall while going 27-5 in the last 32 matchups in California.
Tampa Bay is now 1-3 on its current road trip, a funk that follows a 6-2 run (all at home). The Rays continue to play sub-.500 ball on the road (25-33), and they’re 12-28 in their last 40 as a road chalk, but on the bright side, they’ve won five straight games on Tuesday.
Price led Tampa Bay to Wednesday’s 6-4 home win over Boston, giving up two runs on six hits with five strikeouts and no walks in six innings. Tampa has won four of Price’s last five starts, including the last three in a row, with the lefty allowing just three runs on 11 hits and two walks in his last two outings covering 13 innings. However, Price has been a disaster on the road this year, going 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA in six starts.
The Rays are just 1-4 when Price faces A.L. West opponents, but the victory came on June 11 over the Angels in Tampa Bay. Price lasted just 4 1/3 innings, yielding a run on two hits and a whopping six walks, but the Rays rolled to an 11-1 win.
Santana had one of his better outings of the season on Thursday at the White Sox. Despite allowing four runs on five hits and five walks, he struck out seven and earned a 9-5 road win. The Angels are 4-1 in Santana’s last five trips to the mound, even though in the last four, the right-hander has given up 20 runs (all earned) in 21 2/3 innings. On top of that, he’s 0-4 with a 12.38 ERA in six home starts in 2009.
With Santana pitching, the Angels are on runs of 6-1 as an underdog and 5-1 as a home pup, but they’re 1-4 in his last five at Angel Stadium and 1-5 in his last six against the A.L. East. Additionally, the Halos are 1-5 in Santana’s last six starts versus the Rays, including that 11-1 defeat on June 11 when Santana yielded six runs in 4 2/3 innings. For his career, he’s 3-4 with a 6.04 ERA in nine starts against Tampa Bay, but 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in two home games.
L.A. is on a slew of “over” runs, including 39-14-3 overall, 23-7-1 at home, 8-2 as an underdog, 5-0-1 on Tuesday, 6-0 against the A.L. East and 13-4-1 versus winning teams. Also, with Santana pitching, the “over” is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-2-1 at home and 16-7-2 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Rays carry “over” trends of 5-0 overall, 5-1 on the highway, 6-0 versus the A.L. West and 5-2-1 when Price goes off as a favorite. Finally, the last three meetings between these clubs this season have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and OVER
DUNKEL
Texas at Cleveland
The Rangers look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 6-16 in its last 22 home games against teams with a winning record. Texas is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105).
Game 901-902: Houston at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 15.434; Florida (Volstad) 15.049
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Under
Game 903-904: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 16.767; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.937
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+180); Over
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 13.379; Cubs (Harden) 15.104
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 907-908: San Diego at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 15.080; Milwaukee (Looper) 14.086
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Under
Game 909-910: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Lehr) 14.833; St. Louis (Boggs) 15.544
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under
Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.082; Colorado (Chacin) 16.054
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 3; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 913-914: NY Mets at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 15.813; Arizona (Scherzer) 14.493
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-205); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+185); Under
Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 13.951; San Francisco (Martinez) 15.524
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Under
Game 917-918: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Nippert) 17.478; Cleveland (Laffey) 15.758
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105); Over
Game 919-920: Oakland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.231; Baltimore (Hernandez) 13.712
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+150); Over
Game 921-922: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 15.687; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.766
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-220); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-220); Under
Game 923-924: Detroit at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.788; Boston (Tazawa) 14.011
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Under
Game 925-926: Kansas City at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 13.903; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.734
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-205); Over
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.910; LA Angels (Santana) 15.518
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Over
Game 929-930: Chicago White Sox at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.087; Seattle (Fister) 14.169
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Under
WNBA
Sacramento at San Antonio
The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Sacramento team that is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against the Western Conference. San Antonio is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7).
Game 601-602: Detroit at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.162; Washington 110.866
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 141 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Sacramento at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 104.962; San Antonio 113.431
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 150 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 152
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7); Under
Game 605-606: New York at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.333; Los Angeles 111.856
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 132
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5); Under
MTi Sports
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Houston Astros at Florida Marlins
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The Marlins are 0-7 when Christopher Volstad starts as a home favorite and the Astros are 6-0 when Roy Oswalt starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game. In addition, Houston is 7-0 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Consider backing the underdog Astros.
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Play on: Houston
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
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The Phillies home struggles continued over the weekend as they were swept by division rival Florida while the Cubs were just bombed in back to back games by Colorado. The defending World Series champs had the benefit of an off day Monday though and we'll grab them at an underdog price with JA Happ on the mound, who threw a complete game four-hitter his last time out. Philly has done most of its damage this year on the road (32-19, +14.3 units).
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Play on: Philadelphia
LT Profits
Houston Astros @ Florida Marlins
Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros has looked like his old self lately, while Chris Volstad of the Florida Marlins pitched very well in his only start vs. Houston, so do not look for much scoring in Miami tonight.
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Oswalt has now allowed three runs or less in seven consecutive starts and in eight of his last nine outings., lowering his ERA for the season to 3.61 and his WHIP to 1.17 after a bit of a slow start. Oswalt also has six Quality Starts in his last seven career appearances against Florida, and he posted 10 strikeouts in six innings vs. the free-swinging Marlins lineup the last time he faced them.
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Now Volstad has been very erratic, alternating good starts and bad starts over his last eight outings. The good news there is that it would put him in line for a Quality Start tonight. More importantly, Volstad handled the Houston lineup the only time he faced them, allowing one run on only four hits in eight solid innings right here in this ballpark. As hot as the Astros have been, they are still only hitting .257 vs. right-handed pitchers on the road this year.
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Look for both pitchers to have success at LandShark Stadium this evening.
Pick: Astros/Marlins Under 8.5
Vernon Croy
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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We are getting great value here Tuesday night with the Blue Jays who are hitting .280 as a team on the road this season. Scott Richmond (6-6, 3.97 ERA) has pitched good on the road this season with an ERA of 3.70 over 7 starts and I look for him to have a solid start in his second game off of the DL. The Jays bullpen has pitched solid over their last 8 games with an ERA of just 2.28 so if Richmond does get in trouble early on they can rely on their bullpen. Joba Chamberlain (8-2, 3.73) was hit hard in his only start against the Jays this season allowing 9 hits and 3 earned runs including 2 homeruns over just 3.7 innings. The Jays are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a right hand starter and they are 7-2 in Richmond's last 9 starts when they score 5 or more runs in their previous game. Grab the value with the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday night.
Cajun Sports
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Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Houston Astros
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The Astros continue their four-game set at LandShark Stadium versus the host Florida Marlins on Tuesday night after dropping Game One of the series 8 to 6 on Monday night. Houston will send right-hander Roy Oswalt to the bump with his 6-4 record and ERA of 3.61 including a record of 4-2 with an ERA of 3.30 on the highway. Oswalt is 40-6 (+31.8) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game in the second half of the season, 24-4 (+19.4) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51 to 54 percent in the second half of the season, 16-4 (+11.9) in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons and 10-1 (+9.3) in August games the last 2 seasons. The Marlins will send right-hander Chris Volstad to the hill with his record of 8-9 and ERA of 4.48 on the season including a record of 3-6 at home with an ERA of 4.97. Over his last three starts the Marlins have posted a winning record but Volstad has seen his ERA skyrocket to 5.51 during that span. We also have a MLB System that is active for tonight’s contest and it says to Play ON MLB underdogs with a bullpen that blows thirty-eight percent or more of their save opportunities, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. This system has posted a record of 41-14 over the last five seasons for 74.5 percent winners and a profit of +35.1 units. This season has seen the system cash in seven of eight active games for a profit of +6.6 units. With solid technical and situational support for the visitor we will back the Astros here as they even the series with a Game Two victory on Tuesday night in South Florida.
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Graded Selection: 2* Houston Astros 3 Florida Marlins 1
Tom Stryker
Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Houston Astros +1.5
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Dating back to last season, Florida has quietly won four straight in this series including last night's 8-6 home win over the Astros. That mini streak is about to come to an abrupt halt for the Marlins.
On the hill for the 'Stros will be veteran right hander Roy Oswalt. In case you haven't noticed, Oswalt has been nails in his last seven starts allowing only 10 earned runs and 29 hits in 46.2 innings of work. That's good enough for a 3-0 overall record and a jaw-dropping 1.93 ERA! Roy hasn't pitched since leaving Wrigley Field on July 28th with a lower back strain so his arm should be pretty well rested. That's a bad thing for the Fish! In the month of August alone, Oswalt owns a career record of 26-6 with a blistering 2.59 ERA and he is extremely tough to beat at this time of the year.
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The Marlins will counter with right hander Christopher Volstad. The Palm Beach Gardens, Florida native hasn't had much luck at home or at night. In his own backyard, Volstad has been cracked for 35 earned runs and 64 hits in 63.1 frames. That adds up to a woeful 3-6 mark and a lofty 4.97 ERA. With the moon out, Christopher has been tagged for 44 earned runs and 82 hits in 83.2 innings. That's bad enough for a miserable 3-7 mark and an elevated 4.73 ERA!
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With Volstad on the mound, Florida has dropped seven of his last 10 home starts and five of his last six priced as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Astros are a perfect six-for-six in Oswalt's last six trips to the bump including four-for-four on foreign soil. Take Houston with listed pitcher Oswalt.
Marc Lawrence
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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Cubs host the Phillies in the opener of this huge three-game series when Rich Harden takes on J.A. Happ in the Windy City. Harden enters tonight's fray having lost 9 of his last 13 team starts, including 2-4 his last 6 at home with a 7.50 ERA. On the flip side, Happ owns a super-sharp 1.24 ERA in his last 4 road starts and in commanding KW form with 9 walks and 45 strikeouts in his last 8 efforts. With the Cubs just 1-5 the last 6 in Tuesdays and the Phils 10-3 their last 13 away on Tuesdays, look for the defending champs to continue their winning ways away from home here tonight.
Tom Freese
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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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Milwaukee is 4-1 their last 5 games when playing off a loss and they are 4-0 with Braden Looper when their opponent allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. The Brewers are 6-1 with Looper when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. San Diego is 8-17 their last 25 road games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 9-23 their last 32 Tuesday games. The Padres are 16-36 their last 52 road games and they are 18-46 their last 64 road games vs. righty starters. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE w/Looper
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers will look to erase a slide with a matchup against the last-place San Diego Padres. If Milwaukee is to remain in the playoff race, then it needs to play better in Wisconsin. The Brewers are 5-9 at home since July 1 and their 27-26 record there is the worst among wild-card hopefuls. Milwaukee hands the ball to Braden Looper (10-5/4.84 ERA) who yielded a run and four hits in 6 2-3 innings of a 4-1 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Padres hand the ball to Clayton Richard who will face the Brewers for the second time this month. He threw well enough to earn the victory but will be in tough against a determined Brewers effort; it's interesting to note that Milwaukee is a decent 15-13 (+2.8 units) vs. left handed starters as well. I think the pitchers are a wash in this one and that the more motivated home side offers us good value today as they continue to push in their bid for the playoffs; play on the BREWERS!
Stephen Nover
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Washington Nationals
Break up the Nationals. Washington is the hottest team in baseball winning eight in a row.
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The Nationals are averaging 7.1 runs, batting .322 and their much maligned bullpen has a 2.31 ERA during their winning streak.
Now the Nationals find themselves big 'dogs to the Braves despite having their best pitcher, John Lannan, on the mound.
Lannan is 6-3 with a 2.80 ERA since the start of June. He's faced the Braves twice this season and held them to three runs in 15 innings. The Nationals have beaten the Braves in five of their nine games this season.
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Both teams were idle on Monday, but the Braves just got finished playing seven games on the West Coast.
They may be without Chipper Jones (oblique) and Nate McLouth (hamstring). Both are questionable.
The Braves' brilliant rookie Tommy Hanson gets the starting nod. The league could be catching up to Hanson, who is 2-2 with a 4.35 ERA in his last five starts. In his previous five starts, Hanson had surrendered just three earned runs in 30 innings.
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Atlanta is playing well having won 24 of its last 38 games. But the Nationals are loose and playing their best ball. Lannan is very respectable with 15 quality starts this season, while Hanson hasn't been able to maintain his brilliant early pace.
At this big price, the Nationals are worth a shot. This is a one-unit play for me.
Mike Anthony
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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LA is a solid 30-12 vs divisional opponents this year. Tonight they throw veteran lefty Wolf to the mound in SF. In his last 2 starts in SF Wolf has been fantastic allowing just 1 run in 12+ innings of work. SF counters with J.Martinez making just his second start. Tonight however he takes on the first place Dodgers.LA will be looking to take this game tonight knowing they will have to face T.Lincecum later in the series and this looks like a winnable spot. DODGERS get the win here in this spot.
Rob Vinciletti
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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LA is a solid 3012 vs divisional opponents this year.Tonight they throw veteran lefty J.Wolf to the mound in SF.In his last 2 starts in SF.Wolf has been fantastic allowing just 1 run in 12+ innings of work.SF counters with J.Martinez making just his second start.He did well in his debut in Houston allowing 3 runs in 5 innings.Tonight however he takes on the first place Dodgers.La. will be looking to take this game tonight knowing they will have to face T.Lincecum later in the series and this looks like a winnable spot.On Sunday manager J.Torre called a team meting to settle the club down after losing their first home series.Look for the Dodgers to get this one tonight.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -140
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I'll back the Brew Crew at home tonight against one of the worst road teams in baseball. The Padres are just 17-36 on the road this season and a pathetic 31-77 in their last 108 games as a road underdog. The Brewers are finally back home after a 9-game road trip and they will be hungry to get right back in the win column tonight. The Beer Makers are 17-2 in home games vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 6.3 to 2.6 against these teams. The Padres are only 5-16 in their last 21 series openers. I'll side with Milwaukee for 1 unit tonight.