Craig Trapp
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. LAA Angels
Play: Over 9½
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These two teams have been scoring and giving up a ton of runs recently. In fact these are two of the better over teams in the league. Yesterdays game was another double digit total for LAA which is the best over team in 2009. Today LAA turn to Santana and he has been horrible in his last 4 games giving up 20 runs in only 21 innings. On the other side TB turns to there young ace Price. Price has been good at home but horrible on the road with a plus 8.20 ERA in 6 starts. These lineups are loaded and they will take advantage of two pitchers waiting to give up big innings.
JR TIPS
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Mets at Diamondbacks
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Arizona (51-62) beat New York 7-4 in the opener of a three-game set last night. The Diamondbacks got their fourth win in five games against the Mets (52-60) this season. New York still has major injuries with Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes and Gary Sheffield and the Mets have lost nine of 12, with its starters posting a 5.57 ERA. The Mets will now send Livan Hernandez (7-6, 5.08) to the mound after one of his shakiest starts of the year.Hernandez gave up seven runs in five innings to lose for the first time in four starts Thursday night, 8-3 at San Diego. The right-hander has surrendered seven runs or more in three of his last six outings.The Diamondbacks will counter with Max Scherzer (6-6, 4.01), who has an 8.68 ERA in his last two starts, including an outing against New York on Aug. 1st when he didn't receive a decision in his first career start against the Mets after surrendering four runs and six hits in four innings of a 9-6 loss.The right-hander faced the Pirates on Thursday night, giving up five runs and seven hits while walking four in 5 2/3 innings of an 11-6, 12-inning win.These pitchers are struggling and won"t be able to hod these offenses. We will see each teams bullpens go to work in this matchup.
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TAKE OVER 9
THE SPREAD
Houston Astros at Florida Marlins
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games
Pick: Houston
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games
LA Angels are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
Pick: LA Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LA DODGERS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers
Jeff Benton
Bad call with the Giants on Monday. I’ll bounce back Tuesday and ride the Yankees on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Blue Jays.
I rarely second-guess myself, because I firmly believe that there is no time in this business for regrets. However, I admit that I’m kicking myself for not backing Toronto last night against New York, mainly because I thought the Yankees were ripe for a hangover after that four-game weekend sweep of the Red Sox, including two wins in dramatic fashion. And of course, the Blue Jays rallied for a 5-4 victory to snap New York’s seven-game winning streak
Well, suffice it to say, I think the Yanks got their wake-up call last night and will be raring to go in this one behind red-hot starter Joba Chamberlain. I’ll get to Joba shortly, but first I want to touch on the Yankees as a whole. Despite last night’s loss, they’re still on incredible runs of 35-17 overall, 47-19 at home, 42-13 as a home chalk, 20-6 against right-handed starters, 21-7 in A.L. East play and 7-2 against the Blue Jays. Expanding on that, the Yankees covered the run line in each of their last 14 wins overall (including nine in a row at home) and 29 of their last 36 overall, and five of their seven wins over Toronto this year (and seven of the last nine dating to last year) have been by multiple runs.
As for Chamberlain, where do I start? Even though he gave up four runs in five innings on Thursday against the Red Sox, he still earned a 13-6 victory. He’s now 8-2 with a 3.73 ERA this year, and the Yankees are 15-6 in his 21 starts (including 10-2 at home), and dating to last year, New York is 15-3 when the young right-hander works in the Bronx! Most recently, the Yankees are 7-1 in Chamberlain’s last eight outings, with those seven victories coming by margins of 7, 4, 5, 1, 2, 3 and 4 runs.
Meanwhile, Toronto rookie starter Scott Richmond is coming off one of his worst outings of the season (six runs, four earned, in three innings of an 8-5 loss at Oakland), and Toronto is 3-6 in his last nine trips to the mound, with all six defeats being by multiple runs … including an 8-2 home loss to these Yankees, which Richmond lasted all of 1 2/3 innings, yielding five runs on seven hits. Easy call here guys. Look for another blowout win by the hottest team in baseball.
5♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Chris Jordan
Philadelphia at CHICAGO
So as it is, J.A. Happ will not make way for Pedro Martinez in Philadelphia’s rotation. Instead, veteran Jamie Moyer is headed to the bullpen, while Martinez will join the rotation and will debut as a Phillie tomorrow. Tonight, the focus is on Happ, and I fully expect him to show his appreciation with a solid showing against Rich Harden and the Cubs.
Philly’s newest left-handed star comes in off his best start, in which he struck out a career-high 10 while shutting out the Rockies; he also showed me some durability by throwing 127 pitches.
I believe he’ll have a much easier time in getting in and out of innings tonight, while keeping the opposing bats silent. The Cubs spent Monday night hitting in the rarified air of Denver. In fact, the Cubbies are coming home after playing nine road games in 10 days – stretching from Miami, to Cincinnati, to Denver.
I’m not sure if it was the traveling, but the offense struggled mightily to stay consistent, and against Happ, they could be fresh and still struggle. Just thrice in 14 starts this season has Happ given up more than three earned runs.
Let’s play the road team in this one, as the Phils need to post some wins after a disappointing set with the Marlins back in Philly.
2♦ PHILLIES
Sports Gambling Hotline
Texas +105 at CLEVELAND
Another winner last night on Boston for free. Now 16-3-1 the last 20 days with our comp play releases.
Texas comes to Cleveland feeling very good, as the Rangers have won 3 of their last 4 to pull to within earshot of the Angels in the AL West, and they are right there in the thick of it in the wild card chase.
We say go with the Rangers tonight against Cleveland. True, the Indians are actually playing their best baseball of the season, winning 11 of their last 16 games, and true Aaron Laffey has won 2 of his last 3 starts, but the fact remains the Tribe still sport a 48-63 mark for the year!
Texas starter Dustin Nippert is 1-0 his last 3 starts, with an ERA of 2.73. The Rangers have won all 3 season series meetings against the Indians thus far, and they win here tonight to open this series.
Play on the Rangers.
1♦ TEXAS
Bobby Maxwell
Texas at CLEVELAND -115
Handed out a FREE winner on Monday as the Angels survived a slugfest with the Rays in Anaheim. Today I've got another one for you as I'm playing the Indians at home to get the best of the Rangers.
Texas is below .500 on the road this season and even though they just took two of three from the division rival Angels over the weekend, I think this is a spot to go against them as they overlook the Tribe tonight.
Cleveland is not playing bad baseball, having won four of five overall and having taken two of three in Chicago over the weekend. Lefty Aaron Laffey (5-3, 3.86 ERA) is on the mound for the Indians and this guy has been lights-out at home, going 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA.
Laffey pitched Wednesday at home and allowed one run (unearned) on six hits over eight innings of an 8-1 win over the Twins.
Dustin Nippert (3-0, 2,.73) is on the mound for the Rangers and they have lost his last two road starts - in Seattle and Oakland. The Rangers are just 15-37 in their last 52 roadies against left-handed pitchers.
Meanwhile, the Tribe is 7-2 when Laffey is a home favorite and 4-1 in his last five at home. Plus, the Indians are 6-1 in their last seven series openers.
Play Cleveland in this one to take advantage against a bad road squad.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Dominic Fazzini
Toronto at N.Y. YANKEES
The Diamondbacks had an easy time with the Mets on Monday night, giving me 10 wins in my last 15 complimentary selections. Now I'm headed to the Bronx today to pick up another winner!
The Yankees' seven-game winning streak came to an end Monday, but I think they'll find victory again today.
New York starter Joba Chamberlain (8-2, 3.73 ERA) struggled with his command in his last outing, allowing four runs on six hits and a career-high seven walks in five innings Thursday against Boston.
The hard-throwing right-hander is still 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break, however.
Toronto's Scott Richmond (6-6, 3.97) will be making his second start since coming off the disabled list. The rookie right-hander allowed six runs (four earned) on seven hits and three walks in three innings July 31 at Oakland.
In one start against New York this season, on May 13, Richmond gave up five runs and seven hits in 1 2/3 innings.
Toronto is 3-7 in its last 10 games against New York. With this pitching matchup going today, I don't see the Blue Jays improving those numbers. Take the Yankees on the run line.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Karl Garrett
Kansas City at MINNESOTA
OVER, OVER, OVER we go in Kansas City-Minnesota this Tuesday night.
Kyle Davies, and Nick Blackburn have been giving them up in bunches.
Davies made his first start since the middle of June last Wednesday, and promptly allowed 8 runs on 8 hits in under 4 innings of work. That means that in his last 6 starts this year, 31 runs have crossed in just over 30 innings of work!
Blackburn counters with a 19 runs allowed over his last 21-plus innings of work.
Kansas City comes in having played 7 straight OVERS, while Minnesota has played OVER in 3 in a row, and are on a 7-1-1 OVER run their last 9 games.
Expect the scoreboard to be lit up like a Christmas Tree this Tuesday evening.
G-Man playing the OVER at the Metrodome tonight.
4♦ OVER
Ron Raymond
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SFG / LOS Under 8.5
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When LOS ANGELES played as any home/road team - During Last 2 Years - With 1 Under or More - Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less - With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G; The UNDER is 12-1-1 for the Dodgers in this role the L2Y.
Spartan
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Kansas City at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -1.5
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For tonight I am looking to wager on the Twins on the Run Line as they open a series at home vs the lowly Royals. KC has all the look now of a ball club playing out the string. They will on occasion jump up and bite somebody who has an off night and takes them too lightly but for the most part they will be getting manhandled down the stretch. Trey Hillman turns to Kyle Davies tonight, at 3-8 and 6.37 he has shown little again this year to inspire much confidence. He was recently recalled from Omaha when the Royals finally decided Ponson just might not be the answer, how astute Royals management is! Opposing Davies will be the Twins Nick Blackburn who post's a career 2.25 era vs KC and was strong last time out going 6+ innings against the Indians and surrendering 2 runs. I'm going to let the books choke on their heavy chalk and play the Twins here on the Run line.
JIM FEIST
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TEXAS RANGERS / CLEVELAND INDIANS
TAKE UNDER
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We think of the Texas Rangers as a powerful offensive team, but this 2009 addition has solid pitching and defense. Texas is on an 18-5-1 run under the total. Starter Dustin Nippert (3-0, 2.73 ERA) has impressed, with 20 Ks in 26 innings. The Indians have never faced him. The Cleveland offense traded away star slugger Victor Martinez, but at least starter Aaron Laffey is on a roll, at 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA his last three starts. Look for more defense and pitching than oddsmakers anticipate, play the Rangers/Indians under the total.
DAVE COKIN
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TEXAS RANGERS / CLEVELAND INDIANS
TAKE CLEVELAND INDIANS
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Dustin Nippert finally seems to be realizing his potential after it appeared as though he would never amount to much. He's been a big asset for the surprising Rangers. Nippert is in tough tonight, though, as lefty Aaron Laffey has been nothing short of outstanding at home for the Indians. This is a potential flat spot for Texas off their big series win at Anaheim, and with Laffey's numbers at home, I'll have to lean the Indians way tonight.
Bob Harvey
Houston at Florida
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It's hard to fade Houston ace Roy Oswalt, but with the Marlins hot and chasing the Phillies in the NL East, fading the Astros and cashing in on Florida is the play.
It’s not often we go against Roy Oswalt but today we’re fading the All-Star righthander. Oswalt will make his first start in two weeks for the Astros after being sidelined with a lower back strain. The Marlins meanwhile have been a pain in the neck to the Astros who’ve lost six straight to the Fish on the road.
Hanley RamirezOswalt has been up and down in his career against Florida. He was 5-2 with a 1.88 ERA in his first nine starts against the Marlins before going 0-2 with an 11.70 ERA in two outings against them last season. Overall he’s 2-3 with a 3.46 ERA in six starts at Land Shark Stadium.
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If Oswalt is going to put an end to the Astros' Miami road woes, he’ll have to figure out how to slow down Hanley Ramirez who is hitting .421 in his career against him. Oswalt shouldn’t feel alone…Ramirez seemingly hits everyone well. H-Ram, who leads the league in hitting at .348, had two hits and an RBI in last night’s 8-6 win over the ‘Stros and is on a tear in August hitting .452 with six RBI and seven runs scored over his last seven games. He’s been getting help too from the likes of Jeremy Hermidia, Cody Ross, Craig Coghlan and John Baker.
The Marlins start the night three and a half games behind the first-place Phillies who are just 3-8 in their last 11 outings. Florida is feeling it right now and sense this could be their team to make a serious run at the top spot in the NL East.
Chris Volstad goes to the mound for the Marlins tonight and he’ll look to make amends for an early exit in his last outing when the Nationals tagged him for seven runs in just 4.1 innings. Volstad is 8-9 on the year with a 4.48 ERA. Volstad has only one career start against the Astros. That came in September of 2008 when he allowed just one run and four hits en route to a 5-1 win.
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Looking at a few of the stronger trends heading into tonight’s game:
* Florida is 15-6 in its last 21 home games and 22-8 when favored.
* Houston is 5-11 in its last 16 games overall.
* The Over is 8-1 in the last nine series meetings.
Oswalt's three-game splits are far superior to those of Volstad. Cowboy Roy is 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA. Houston is also 3-0 in Oswalts starts over that stretch. Volstad is 1-0 and the Marlins are 2-1. Volstad’s ERA is 5.51 over his last 16 innings of work.
This series should go a long ways towards determining if the Marlins, and for that matter, the Astros are playoff contenders or pretenders. Last night’s loss dropped Houston seven games behind first-place St. Louis. The good news for the Astros is that Oswalt is back. The bad news is Lance Berkman isn’t. And without Berkman Houston is just 6-11.
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Florida is healthier and hotter and those two are huge factors for me. Take the Marlins to spear the Astros tonight.
Pick: Marlins -112
Alex Smart
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
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Rich Harden the Chicago Cubs fire baller is currently in top form as is evident by having garnered a minuscule 1.80 ERA in his last five starts which includes fanning 41 batters in 30 innings. That is not a good omen for a Phillies batting order that he has dominated during his career, striking out 22 and allowing only two earned runs over 20 innings for a spectacular 0.90 ERA. Meanwhile, Philly will respond with the impressive AJ Happ (8-2, 2.74 ERA) . The southpaw hurler is of one his best starts of the season, striking out 10 batters in a shut out vs what has been an explosive Colorado Rockies offense. The former Northwestern standout, has been his best on the road this season, garnering a stingy 1.90 ERA in 7 outings. Both these hurlers are backed by to tier bullpens. Considering the overall pitching match-up backing the under in this spot makes for a viable wagering option. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 14-3-1 in Happs last 18 starts overall. And 6-1-1 in his L8 road starts. Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Harden. Under is 5-0 in Hardens last 5 starts overall. Under is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings in Chicago……Play on the UNDER