Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday August, 14

Marc Lawrence

Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

When the White Sox send Jose Quintana to the hill against Henderson Alvarez and the Blue Jays in Toronto Tuesday evening the Pale Hose will do so knowing they are 8-5 behind Quintana this season, including 4-2 when favored. On the other side of the coin, Alvarez enters the game in lousy KW form with 7 strikeouts and 10 walks in his last three starts. Alvarez is also 0-2 in his career team starts against the White Sox, 3-11 at night this season, and 2-5 in his career starts during August. With that we'll back the better arm and the better team here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Rob Vinciletti

Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8.5

This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the under for home teams like Baltimore that are off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like Boston that comes in off a road favored win at -140 or higher and scored 10 or more runs. The Red Sox have gone under in 12 of 15 games as a road dog from +100 to +125. Boston has Beckett going and he has gone under in 7 of 10 starts in Baltimore and 5 of his last 6 road starts overall. Chen for the Orioles has a solid 7 inning start allowing just 1 run in his last outing vs Boston. Look for this one to stay under tonight.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -113

The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games and 4-0 in Chad Billingsley's last four starts. Billingsley has been on a tear with a 3-0 record and a 2.18 ERA his last three starts. Pittsburgh has a below average offense (20th in runs scored) and Kevin Correia is one of their weaker arms, with a 4.49 ERA. The Dodgers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh as well as 4-1 in Billingsley's last five starts against the Pirates. And the Dodgers are 60-22 in the last 82 meetings. Play the LA Dodgers.

Ben Burns

Washington vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under

These teams have each played some recent high-scoring games. Including yesterday's results, the Nationals have now seen three straight games finish above the total while the Giants have seen back to back games do so. This figures to be a much lower-scoring affair.

Vogelsong tossed seven shutout innings at St. Louis last time out, allowing just three hits. He's seen the "under" go 13-7-1 in his 21 starts, including a highly lucrative 9-1-1 here at San Francisco. In those 11 home starts, Vogelsong has a superb 1.42 ERA.

While Vogelsong has dominated at home, Gonzalez is 9-2 with a very solid 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road. He earned a complete game victory in his last start and has 17 K's with just two walks his last two starts.

This weekend's games notwithstanding, the "under" has been profitable here at SF all season. I expect things to return to "normal" here. Consider the Under.

Scott Spreitzer

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees

New York has been pounding lefties all season, averaging 5.7 rpg and I expect more of the same when they face Matt Harrison. The Texas southpaw has allowed 15 earned runs and 42 base runners in his last 24 1/3 innings. That's a hefty 5.56 ERA & 1.73 WHIP, while allowing nearly 1.50 home runs per 9 IP. Harrison has a 4.76 ERA & 1.55 WHIP in seven lifetime appearances against New York. The Yankees counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who owns tremendous numbers at Yankee Stadium. He rarely gets himself into trouble, walking only three batters and giving up just one home run in his last five starts, overall. The Rangers have beat up on the teams they're supposed to, but they're well below .500 against teams with a winning record since June 1. They enter this one on a 7-19 slide as an underdog of +1.50 or less. Meanwhile, the Yanks are on a 6-0 run at home against the Rangers and they're on a 4-0 run when Kuroda throws on four days rest. I'm backing the Yankees on Tuesday.

MTi Sports

Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Astros are 0-25 as a night dog vs a NL foe when they are off a night game in which they allowed at least six runs. Note that Houston is 0-14 this season and they have lost by an average of 4.0 runs per game. Consider the Cubbies.

Bryan Power

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle
Pick: Tampa Bay

I cashed the Rays last night in an easy 4-1 victory over the Mariners and see no reason why they shouldn't be backed again tonight. Matt Moore is likely to give the road team a strong start considering his last three outings have seen the lefty go 3-0 with a superb 0.51 ERA.

Seattle has struggled mightily against lefties at home going back to last season, losing 27 of 41 games. Offensively, the club has really struggled all season here at Safeco Field, scoring only 3.1 rpg while batting a pathetic .208 as as team.

The Rays are making a strong late-season charge yet again, and currently lead the American League Wild Card race. Whether its offense or pitching, Tampa Bay is doing it all right now. They are batting .311 during the current win streak, scoring 5.9 rpg, while their starters (who already have the best ERA in the AL) have a 2.11 ERA. They've won seven in a row overall and have had the Mariners number this season, taking six of eight games head to head.

Mariners starter Kevin Millwood has not pitched well recently with a 6.06 ERA last three starts. The team has lost 15 of his 22 outings this season. He's allowed 11 runs over his last 10 innings of work. Two teams going in different directions, I'm sticking with the hot one.

Dave Cokin

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Boston can beat up lefties, but Josh Beckett has been pretty bad and Baltimore just seems to want it more than the Red Sox these days. I'll side with the Orioles.

SPORTS WAGERS

BALTIMORE/Boston over 8½ -113

The Red Sox are falling apart here in August, where they are just 3-8 so far. Josh Beckett has been coming undone for two years now but this total fails to reflect that. To add to his woes, Beckett has been bothered by back soreness lately. He missed close to three weeks on the DL with shoulder inflammation in June and has struggled with control since his return. Beckett has just one win in his last 11 starts, accompanied by a 7.39 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 31.2 IP since July 1. The Red Sox are just hoping to get a few more innings or games out of him, as they have nobody else to turn to.

The BoSox are third in the majors in runs scored just behind the Yankees and Rangers. Against lefties they’re hitting .270 and overall they’re second in the majors in slugging % and OPS. They’ll face a lefty here in Wei-Yin Chen, a pitcher they’ve already seen twice this season.

Chen has a fly-ball bias profile. His groundball/fly-ball split is 38%/42%. His fastball barely tops off at 89 MPH but a low 22% hit rate has masked his pedestrian skills. Chen has also been aided by facing a slew of poor hitting clubs recently. Over his last nine starts, he’s faced Oakland twice, Tampa Bay twice, Cleveland, Minnesota and Seattle at Safeco.

Camden Yards plays as the fifth highest scoring park in the majors behind Coors Field, Texas, Yankee Stadium and U.S. Cellular Field. A check on the conditions today project winds blowing out to center at 6 MPH. This low total does not reflect any of the favorable factors today.

Arizona +101 over ST. LOUIS

The Diamondbacks have cooled off in the win column but their bats remain very warm with 35 runs scored in their past six games. The Cardinals have cooled off too with just two wins in their past six but unlike the Snakes, their bats have quieted with just 17 runs scored over that same span.

Joe Kelly was called up to fill a hole in the Cardinals rotation despite having thrown just 59 innings above A-ball prior to this season. Despite underwhelming skills, he had some early success but the book is out on him now and he’s been absolutely torched in his last two starts. He’s allowed 19 hits in his last two starts covering 10.1 innings. He has a poor BB/K ratio of 21/39 in 62 frames. A demotion is likely in store for the young Joe Kelly and this outing may solidify that.

Ian Kennedy is so much better than his 4.34 ERA suggests. He has 126 K’s and just 30 walks in 145 innings. He has been hurt by an unusually low 69% strand rate. From a skills perspective, nothing has changed from his breakout season a year ago in which he won 21 games, lost four and posted an ERA of 2.88. Kennedy is poised for a strong stretch run and he certainly offers up good value against a pitcher that doesn’t come close to his skill level.

Matt Fargo

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay is the hottest team in baseball right now as it has won seven straight games to move up in the standings in the American League East and more importantly, keep a hold on to one of the two Wild Card spots. The pitching has been the catalyst over this stretch as the Rays have allowed three runs or fewer in six of these games and have given up an average of just 2.3 rpg in the seven games. That hot pitching continues tonight with Matt Moore on the hill. He has had a very solid season and his recent work has been outstanding as he has allowed only five runs in his last five starts, posting a 1.47 ERA over that stretch. The Rays have won four of those five games with the only loss coming at home against the Mariners, setting up a revenge scenario. Seattle won seven straight games at the end of July and the start of August but it has gone 3-7 since then and while the majority of that took place on the road, the season at home have not been good overall at 25-30 and the Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. Kevin Millwood is struggling this season as only 10 of his 22 starts have been quality and he is coming off one of his worst starts of the season. He allowed seven runs in just four innings against the Orioles and after that, Seattle has gone only 7-15 in his 22 starts on the year. This includes the Mariners going 1-10 in his last 11 starts as an underdog.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Arizona +101 over ST LOUIS: Google News Play Despite the rough season that Kennedy has had and the bad numbers he has vs the cards I will back him tonight. Ian had a rough outing vs Pittsburgh his last time out, but prior to that he had won his last 4 starts and had a 2.54 ERA in those starts. Joe Kelly is a rookie for the cards and after posting 7 quality starts in a row he has had BB roiugh outings and may lose his spot in the rotation once Jaime Garcia comes back. That may give him motivation, but I feel the15-0 loss to the Giants in his last start will really affect his confidence more so than his motivation to stay in the rotation. I don't care if you're a rookie of a veteran, you lose a game 15-0 it has to affect something upstairs. THe Cards offense is loaded, but they do come in averaging just 2.8 rpg in their last 6 games, while the D-Backs have averaged 5.8 rpg in their last 6. St Louis is reeling a bit right now and I look for Arizona to take advantage tonight with a big win in game 1 of this series.

Miami/ Philadelphia Over 7.5: Josh Johnson has been pitching well of late, as he has a 1.75 ERA in his last 4 starts, but I feel that an improving Philly offense can hit him tonight. The Phils have put up 12 runs in their last 2 games and they score 5 rpg for Kyle Kendrick on the road this year. That's a big reason why his road starts have averaged 10.3 rpg, while another reason is the fact that he has a 4.85 ERA on the road this year. Kyle also has a 4.90 ERA at night, with those games averaging 9.7 rpg. The Miami offense is struggling and they have been shutout in their last 2 games, but I look for them to breakout tonight vs Kyle, who has allowed 5 ER's or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. The Over is 8-3 in Josh's last 11 vs the Phils, while the Over is 20-3 in Kyle's last 23 road games vs a team with a losing record. I expect no less than 9 runs in this one.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Cleveland/ Angels Over 8: Zach Greinke had a good home start for for the Angels and prior to that he had a good start in his last outing for the Brewers, but he comes in here off 2 bad starts and he has a 5.82 ERA in his last 7 starts overall. Cleveland is not a great offensive team, but they do score 4.4 rpg on the road and once Greinke is out of there then they will take aim at a LA Pen that has a 7.89 ERA in their last 10 games. Last night Cleveland has a 3-0 lead before LA got back to 3-2, but when they needed to just hold Cleveland in the 9th, their pen gave up 3 runs. The Angels offense has been much better the last few months and after putting up just 2 runs last night they should get back on track vs Ubaldo Jimenez, who has struggled mightily this year. Ubaldo has a 5.25 ERA overall, including a 6.93 ERA in his last 7 starts. On the road he has a 6.94 ERA with an average of 9.8 rpg being scored in those starts and he has allowed 28 ER's in his last 5 road starts, which spans 25.2 innings. LA scores just 4.1 rpg, but i see them tagging Ubaldo for more than that and once he is gone then the Halo's will look to put more ruins up vs a Cleveland pen that has a 5.50 ERA in their last 10 games. Whatever these offenses don't score off the starters you can bet that the pens will make up the difference. Look for at least 10 runs in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since April of 2011 the Over is 16-0-1 when the Indians are on the road and facing a team that has lost at least 3 in a row.

CINCINNATI -1.5 (+110) over NY Mets: I know the Reds are off a 7 game road trip, but with Pittsburgh faltering and with St Louis being average at best right now, I don't expect a flat game from the here as they know they can take a huge step towards wrapping up the division with a solid showing vs the Mets in this series. NY sends Chris young to the mound and he has been bad of late with an 8.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Mets are just 1-6 in his last 7 starts, with 5 of the 6 losses coming by 2 runs or more. The Reds counter with Mat Latos and they are 4-2 in his last 6 starts, with all 4 wins coming by 2 runs or more. Mat has been solid of late with a 2-0 mark and a 1.21 ERA in his last 3 starts. and he should hold down a Mets squad that has averaged just 3 rpg in their last 5 games. in the Reds last 17 wins, 14 have come by 2 runs or more. They will be motivated for this one and have the huge edge on the mound. Cincy by at least 3 in this one.

POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (30-10 L40) (38-17 +15.41 UNITS)

Since 2009, Houston is 3-21 on the road off a game in which they never led if they had less than 6 hits in that game and it's not game 1 of a series. Play on Chicago -120 over Houston.

Since 2009 the Over is 20-2 when the A's are off a game that started before 7 pm and they have lost their starter's last 2 starts. Play Oakland/ Kansas City OVER 9

WUNDERDOG

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +105

The Los Angeles Dodgers are barely above water on the road at 30-28, while the Pirates have been one of the best home teams all season long. Kevin Correia hasn't been the best starter for the Pirates, but at home he has been nearly 2 runs per start better. Correia held this weak hitting Dodgers team to 1 run over six innings in his only start against them this season. The Dodgers are just 2-5 when Billingsley takes the ball on the road as a favorite from -110 to -150, and 2-7 in his nine starts with a total set from 7 to 8.5. The Pirates have dominated at home vs. right-handed starters where they are 20-6 in their last 26, and have won all of Correia's last six starts. Play on Pittsburgh.

MLB Predictions

Cleveland Indians +185

Cleveland won the first of this series last night with a 6-2 victory as +175 dogs, and have now won 4 of their last 6 games after an awful stretch. The Angels are just 3-9 over their last 12 games and are now out of a playoff spot. These two teams have faced each other 7 times this season with Cleveland winning 5 of the 7 games including the last three. Ubaldo Jimenez will go for Cleveland and he is 9-11 on the season with a 5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average. Jimenez won for the first time in over a month in his last time out going 6 innings allowing 3 earned runs against while striking out 10. Despite his high ERA the Indians are still 11-12 in games that he has started. Zack Greinke will make his fourth start for his new team, and he is 9-4 on the season with a 3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .261 opponents batting average. With Los Angeles Greinke is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA, and the team is 0-3 when he has started. He had a stellar first start but has since allowed 10 earned runs against in 12 innings of work in his last two starts with LA. Take note that the Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 vs AL West opponents, and 4-1 in Jimenez's last 5 vs AL West opponents. The Angels are just 4-9 in their last 13 vs AL Central opponents, 1-5 in their last 6 home games, and 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Greinke hasn't had much control in his last two outings and if that continues there is a good chance that the slumping Angels can drop another game here tonight. I like the value on Cleveland to win tonight and will take it for 2 units.

Tony Karpinski

Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs

The Astros are now 8-34 vs. right handers on the road, which is awfully bad. It’s not that they don’t score runs, but this team simply can’t win games and it’s been going on for almost two years. They should struggle vs. Chris Volstad. The Cubs took a flyer on Volstad, who has never lived up to being a first round pick, but he has been solid since coming back from the minors, allowing five runs in his two starts over 13 innings.Play the Cubs here on Tuesday night!