Chris Elliott
NY Mets vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5
The New York Mets (55-60) travel to Cincinnati to take on the NL Central division leading Reds (69-46) in game one of this series.
Chris Young will toe the rubber for the Mets with a record of 3-6, ERA of 4.87 and WHIP of 1.35 in 12 starts this season. He has been especially bad as of late winning only 1 game in his last 7 starts with a massive ERA of 6.10. He has faced the Reds once this year dropping a 3-1 decision in New York.
Mat Latos will counter for the Reds with a solid record of 10-3, ERA of 3.81 and 1.19 WHIP. He has been red hot in his last 4 starts with a record of 3-0 and awesome ERA of 1.64. He has faced the Mets once this season, dropping a 9-4 decision in New York.
These two teams have been going in the opposite directions as the Mets are 8-12 in their past 20 games overall and 9-11 in their past 20 games on the road. They sit 16.5 games back on the Nationals in the NL East and have a run differential on the season of -24.
The Reds are a solid 5 games up on the Pirates in the NL Central and have a run differential on the season of +71. They are an awesome 14-6 in their past 20 games overall and a remarkable 15-5 in their past 20 games at home!
The Reds are by far the better team at home with the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Furthermore, the Mets have the the worst bullpen ERA in MLB at 4.99 and the Reds have the best bullpen ERA in MLB at 2.66. All signs point to a Cincinnati route in this matchup.
Lenny Del Genio
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto
Pick: Chicago White Sox
There was no letdown last night for the Blue Jays following their big underdog win over the Yankees Sunday, as they defeated the first place White Sox 3-2 in the opener of a four-game set between the teams. Tuesday, I look for Toronto to have a much tougher time with Chicago's Jose Quintana, a lefty that carries a 2.99 ERA in 13 starts thus far. A lack of run support has hurt Quintana's overall won-loss record so far as the team has scored two runs or fewer for him eight times. With some of the White Sox' past offensive problems here at Rogers Centre, you might be thinking its "more of the same," but we see the Chicago lineup getting to Henderson Alvarez, who has been ineffective in BB starts. He first issued a career high five walks in a 4-1 loss to Oakland on August 2, then followed that up w/ perhaps his worst performance to date, allowing six runs and 11 hits in a 7-1 loss to Tampa Bay. The White Sox have turned a nice profit in road games this season (+$840), so go with them. Take Chicago White Sox.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -106
The Baltimore Orioles are right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race at 62-53 on the season. They have won seven of their last nine games overall to put themselves in great position. Boston (57-59) has lost eight of 12 to fall out of the discussion.
The Orioles have a big edge on the mound tonight behind Wei-Yin Chen. The left-hander has been Baltimore's best starter all year. Chen is 10-7 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 23 starts this season. That includes 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in two starts against Boston.
Josh Beckett is simply past his prime and showing no signs of returning to his old dominant self. The right-hander is 5-9 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in 19 starts, including 0-1 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in his last three. Beckett is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA in his last three starts against Baltimore.
The Red Sox are 2-8 in Beckett's last 10 starts overall. The Orioles are 11-4 in their last 15 games following an off day. Boston is 2-6 in its last 8 games following an off day. The Red Sox are 1-6 in Beckett's last 7 starts vs. Orioles, including 0-4 in his last 4 starts at Baltimore. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago Cubs -118
Volstad, who is coming off a solid outing, has had a rough season, but the Cubs are still showing some value at this price. They are 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus a team with winning percentage of .400 or worse on the road and 4-0 in their last 4 against Houston. The Astros are 11-43 in their last 54 overall and 9-42 in their last 51 road games. They are even 0-6 in Harrell's last 6 road starts versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Cubs.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +114
The Reds have won 3 in a row with each of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. The Mets, meanwhile, have lost 5 of 7 with each of those 5 defeats coming by 2 runs or more. In addition, the Mets are 1-6 in Chris Young's last 7 starts. These 6 losses have come by an average of 5.3 runs and 5 of them came by at least 2 runs. The Reds are 11-4 in Mat Latos' last 15 starts. These 11 wins have come by an average of 2.5 runs and each of the last 4 victories have come by at least 2 runs. Bet the Reds on the run line.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles -106
We are getting a great price on a hot Baltimore club that has won 7 of 9. The Red Sox are 2-8 in Josh Beckett's last 10 starts, 1-6 in his last 7 starts versus the Orioles and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus the Orioles. Baltimore has won 4 of Wei-Yin Chen's last 6 starts and each of his starts against Boston this season. Take Baltimore on the money line.
Black Widow
Chicago White Sox -122
The White Sox sit in first place in the AL Central with a 62-52 record. The Toronto Blue Jays are all but out of the postseason race at 55-60 on the season. After losing Game 1 of this series last night, I'm backing Chicago to get Game 2 behind Jose Quintana Tuesday. Quintana is 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.092 WHIP in 13 starts and two relief appearances in 2012. This guy is clearly one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Henderson Alvarez is 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in 22 starts for Toronto. With an advantage on the mound and in the motivation department, this is an obvious choice to back Chicago tonight folks. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.
Erin Rynning
Philadelphia at Miami
Play: Miami
Two of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball will continue their series tonight as the Phillies play the Marlins in Miami tonight. The Phillies will send part-time starter Kyle Kendrick to the hill. There’s a major reason why Kendrick is still a bobbling starter and that’s simply because he’s not very good. The Phillies are 4-11 when Kendrick gets the call in 2012, while he totes a 4.86 ERA. There’s nothing fluky about his troubling ERA, and you could even argue it should be worse with just a 68-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 96.1 innings of work. Making matters worse is the right-hander just isn’t getting the groundballs he’s featured at times over the course of his career. Meanwhile, the Marlins will have ace Josh Johnson toeing the rubber. The big right-hander has fought to find his vintage form all season long after a shoulder injury in 2011. Of late, he’s pitching his strongest baseball of the season. Over his last four starts Johnson has allowed just five earned runs. In addition, the strikeouts are there with 26, he’s efficient, and he’s garnering groundballs. No question the Marlins own the massive edge in the starting pitching department tonight. Finally, the Phillies are the team most likely to play out the string. This was a team with a ‘World Series or bust’ attitude coming into the campaign. They’re currently without key contributors catcher Carlos Ruiz and Placido Polanco, and they traded Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Take the Marlins at a manageable price tonight, and grab some 5-inning line as well.
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick for tonight is out of National League Central play, as I play the Houston Astros over the Chicago Cubs, and will list both Lucas Harrell over Chris Volstad.
Based purely on the past performances of these starting pitchers, I'm a little astonished at the line I saw on this game, and thought Harrell, who leads the National League in innings by a rookie, deserved to be installed as the favorite.
He has been the Astros' most reliable starter this season. Harrell has given up two or fewer runs in each of his last six starts, going 2-2 over that span.
On the flipside, a winless Volstad tossed his second consecutive quality start his last time out, but once again couldn't nab the victory - increasing his winless streak to 22 starts. Some say he is is improving, I say he's still losing. I do realize the last team he beat was Houston on July 10, 2011, but that won't scare me from this game.
2♦ HOUSTON
Matt Rivers
Gave you a free play winner on Detroit-Minnesota Over the total last night.
Tonight I will lay a little juice with the Yankees at home against the Rangers.
New York won for the 6th straight time at home last night over Texas, as the Yankees took the opener 8-2 over the Rangers. New York is now 9-1 their last 10 home games versus Texas, and tonight they make it 10-1 behind the strong pitching of Hiroki Kuroda.
Kuroda is 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA his last 5 home starts, and he has allowed just 3 runs his last 21-plus innings pitched at Yankee Stadium.
Matt Harrison will counter and while he leads the Rangers in wins this season, he has hit a rough patch of late going 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA his last 4 trips to the mound.
Harrison is also just 2-2 for his career against the Yanks, with a 4.26 ERA. With the Yankees having outscored the Rangers 46-19 during their current 6 game home win streak versus Texas, that ERA could be raised just a little after tonight's play.
Going to play the Yankees to boost the winning streak to 7 in a row at home against the Rangers.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Washington Nationals over the San Francisco Giants.
Last night the Nationals look like Murderer's Row, as they rocked San Francisco pitching for 21 hits and 14 runs in winning their 9th in their last 10 games.
The Nationals have also won ALL 4 season series meetings, as they have outscored the Giants 38-14 this season. Included is a start by Madison Bumgarner on July 4th in which the Nats got to him for 7 runs on 9 hits in just 5 innings of work!
Washington will go with Jordan Zimmerman who is looking for his 10th win of the season, and has not lost a start since June 22nd.
Washington is looking too strong right now, and this price is too good to pass on tonight.
Take the Nats.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Dom Chambers
Today’s free play is on the Cincinnati Reds on the run line to beat the New York Mets.
Besides the fact the Reds are a top team, while the Mets are floundering, this is a case of two pitchers going in opposite directions.
Mat Latos starts for the Reds. Overall, he is 10-3 with a 3.81 ERA. But he has picked up his game as of late. In his last three starts, he is 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA and a WHIP of 0.81. He has been outstanding.
And the Mets start Chris Young. The right-hander is 3-6 with a 4.87. But in his last three starts, he is 1-2 with a 8.22 ERA and a WHIP of 1.50.
The Reds have won their last three games, while the Mets have lost six of their last eight games.
This is a spot where all the intangibles favor the Reds.
Take the Reds on the run line.
2♦ CINCINNATI -1.5
Craig Davis
Monday's free play was the New York Yankees, as I am now 59-39 with my comp play selections.
Tonight's free play is on the NY Yankees and Hiroki Kuroda over the Texas Rangers with Matt Harrison. And based on the way Kuroda has been pitching lately, he's probably the last pitcher the Rangers want to see.
If Kuroda pitches even 75% like he's capable and been pitching of late, the Yankees should have no trouble beating the Rangers for the 7th straight time in New York.
The Bronx Bombers have now outscored the Rangers by the count of 46-19 during a six-game home winning streak in this series... and the last time the Rangers won there was back in April of 2011.
Kuroda (10-8, 3.24 ERA) is now 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last five starts, allowing just three runs in 21 1/3 innings of work at home. And three runs in a game is the most he's allowed in over a month... and he still got the win with solid run support.
The Rangers counter with Matt Harrison who, although he leads the team in wins, is 1-2 with a 5.55 ERA in his last four starts... so let's not go singing his praises just yet. Last Wednesday he allowed five runs on eight hits including three walks in under five innings of work in a 10-9 win in Boston.
He's also just 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA as a starter against the Yankees.
This is always a fun series, but my money is on the Yankees again at home as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Scott Delaney
Love the American League Central Division-leading Chicago White Sox, specifically because the Toronto Blue Jays are handing the ball to Henderson Alvarez. While the Jays have lost six of 10 and have sunk to the cellar of the A.L. East, they're getting no favors with this right-hander up.
Alvarez is in after surrendering six runs, four of them earned, on 11 hits and three walks in his last start against the Rays. That resulted in his second consecutive loss and marked the second time in four outings he had allowed at least six runs. He's posted a 5.20, 5.63 and 6.52 ERA in June, July and August, respectively, and just doesn't seem to be a promising youngster just yet.
My money is on the South Siders.
3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Chris Jordan
The free pick is going to be on the New York Yankees getting it done over American League-rival Texas Rangers, and I want you listing both pitchers, Hiroki Kuroda and Matt Harrison.
Granted, Harrison had a touch of the flu in his last outing, so you can blame that on him giving up up five runs in 4-2/3 innings versus the Yankees, but how do you explain his 2-3 mark and 3.70 ERA in his past six starts? And, how do you embrace his 4.76 ERA in four career starts and three relief appearances versus New York?
I'd much rather side with Kuroda, who has been dominant recently, lasting til at least the seventh in each of his past five starts, while sporting a stifling 1.82 ERA over that stretch. The veteran righty has walked only eight batters in his last 61-1/3 innings, and two or less in nine straight outings, proving his durability and command are on point right now.
And with this being an important series - for postseason positioning and the current top spot in the A.L. on the line - I have to believe this game is just as important as the series-opener. And even though the Rangers beat the Yankees in two of three games at home back in April, they've lost six straight in the Bronx, including last night.
After igniting the home crowd with a huge series-opening win, take New York tonight.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES