Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 17,2010

JIM FEIST

CINCINNATI REDS / ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
PLAY: CINCINNATI REDS

The first place Reds come to town, a motivated, hungry team. They go with veteran Bronson Arroyo, who is a 12-game winner with a 3.94 ERA despite throwing half his games in a hitter's park. He doesn't walk anyone and has allowed just 136 hits in 160 innings. Arizona goes with a young starter, Daniel Hudson, who is a little too liberal with free passes, allowing 15 walks in 38 innings. Have to back the talented and hot visitors. Play the Reds.

Marc Lawrence
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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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San Diego sends Jon Garland to the mound against Randy Wells and the Cubs at Wrigley field tonight with all the numbers in the Padres' favor in this contest. For openers, Garland is 4-1 in his last five team starts during August. He's also 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last two starts against Chicago. With Garland owning a better road WHIP than Wells' home WHIP on the season, look for Wells to drop to 3-13 in his last 16 team starts here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

Tom Freese
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Blue Jays at Athletics
Prediction: Under
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Toronto starter Brandon Morrow has allowed 9 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Blue Jays are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 road games and they are 6-2-1 UNDER their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto is 7-3-1 UNDER vs. AL West teams. Oakland starter Dallas Braden is 12-7-1 UNDER in his 20 starts this year. The Athletics are 6-0-1 UNDER their last 7 home games. Oakland is 7-0-1 UNDER their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 9-1-1 UNDER of a loss in their last game.

Matt Fargo
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds remain in control in the National League Central as they have a two-game lead over St. Louis. Cincinnati has surprised many this season with the way it has been playing as it has not fallen back like many thought would happen. The Reds are coming off a home sweep against Florida which was impressive as that could have been the spot for the fold after they were swept at home against the Cardinals right before that. The Reds have won seven of their last eight road games to move to 31-25 on the road for the season. While Cincinnati has surprised in a positive way, Arizona has been a huge disappointment this season. The Diamondbacks are 25 games under .500 as both the pitching and the hitting has led to a very underachieving season. Arizona has definitely been better at home than on the road however it is four games under .500 at Chase Field which shows there really is not a home edge at all. The Reds go with Bronson Arroyo who has been having a solid season following a rough start. After posting a 4.92 ERA in April and May, he has put up a 3.14 ERA over the last three months covering 13 starts. He is coming off a non-quality start against St. Louis last time out but that is fine here as he has followed up his last seven non-quality efforts with quality performances. In those seven follow-up games, Cincinnati is 6-1 with Arroyo posting a 1.61 ERA. He is opposed by Daniel Hudson who has been sensational with three straight quality outings since coming over from the White Sox. He is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in those games as he has also gotten a ton of run support which is a rarity for most starters in this rotation. The confidence is no doubt in place for Hudson but this is the perfect time to go against him as that third straight quality start triggers a great go against scenario. Cincinnati is 25-11 this season against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460 while also going 19-8 in Arroyo’s last 27 starts against teams with a losing record. Arizona meanwhile is 7-23 this season against National League starters whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. 3* Cincinnati Reds

Steve Merril
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Tigers vs. Yankees
Play: Under 7.5
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For the fourth straight time, Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia will face off as the Yankees and Tigers continue their series on Tuesday night. Verlander is 4-2 with a 3.80 ERA in eight career starts against the Bronx Bombers. Verlander already shut the Yankees out over 6.7 innings back in May. He has given up just two runs over his last 20.7 innings pitched against New York since April of 2009. Nick Swisher (7-38), Robinson Cano (4-17), Mark Teixeira (1-14), A-Rod (3-13), Jorge Posada (3-13), Austin Kearns (1-5), and Brett Gardner (1-4) all have poor numbers against Verlander. Both A-Rod and Swisher are questionable for the game with various ailments suffered in last night's game. That's not good for a Yankees lineup that has managed to score only 16 runs in their last five games. They've gone Under the total in seven of their last 10 games as the offense has struggled a bit. CC Sabathia has held up his end of the bargain in these duels for the most part. He took the loss in both games in Detroit giving up 10 runs and 15 hits in 14 innings pitched over the past two seasons. At home last year, he gave up just five hits in seven innings pitched against the Tigers. Sabathia has gone Under the total in his last three starts against the Royals, Red Sox, and Rays. Brandon Inge (7-50), Johnny Damon (5-21), Ryan Raburn (3-15), Jhonny Peralta (1-9), and Austin Jackson (0-3) all struggle against Sabathia. They've gone Under in four of their last six games. Outside of a 13 run outburst against the White Sox on Sunday, the Tigers have failed to score more then 4 runs in six of seven games. This series has produced five Unders in all five games they’ve played this season, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight between the Tigers and Yankees.

Rocketman
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San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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Philadelphia is now 11-3 in the month of August and have won 4 of their last 5 games overall. Philadelphia is 36-19 at home this year. Barry Zito is 2-4 on the road this year. Roy Oswalt has a 3.34 ERA overall this year and has a 2.79 ERA his last 3 starts. Oswalt does have a losing record overall this year but he had very little run support in Houston. Now he has a good Phillies hitting team behing him to make his life a little easier. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!

BIG AL
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San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: San Diego Padres
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It's time to believe in the San Diego Padres. The team that many people thought would never be able to sustain their lead in the NL West Division, went into San Francisco this weekend and took two of three from the second-place Giants and in the process knocked around Tim Lincecum pretty good in the final game on Sunday. This team is definitely for real, and it's been mostly their pitching that has gotten them to this point. The Padres lead the Majors in almost every team pitching category, including ERA (3.23), WHIP (1.21) and Batting average against (.233). Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, they are also second in the Majors in strikeouts, having K'd 931 opposing hitters. Tonight they visit Wrigley Field for only the second time since May of 2009 and righthanderJon Garland - one of the reasons the Padres have been so tough this year - will be going for his 12th win of the season against righthander Randy Wells. To say that Wells is struggling in his sophomore campaign would be a huge understatement at this point. He started out the season ok, but has really been having problems since the break. In his last three starts, Wells is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and 1.75 WHIP and the Cubs are 0-3 in those games. Wells has surrendered six homers in his last four starts, and he must do something about that if he is to get back to anywhere near where he was in 2009. After Monday's beat-down, the Cubs are 4-15 in their last 19 games. Take the Padres.

Rob Vinciletti
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Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Tonight the Twins qualify in a nice System that plays on home teams off a home win that scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs. These homers have cashed 9 of the last 11 times. The Twins have S. Baker going tonight and they have won his last 3 starts vs Chicago. The Sox counter with J. Danks. Though these 2 starters have similar home to road numbers, Danks has struggled here of late and has allowed 9 runs and 16 hits in 13 innings. With the Twins averaging 6 runs per game vs Division opponents they have proved they are more than capable of winning this Division and will look to send a message by winning game 1 of this series. Take the Twins tonight.

EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -180
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Milwaukee's starting pitcher Dave Bush is only 5-10 this season with an ERA of 4.78 and Bush has really struggled recently. Over his last three starts Bush is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.27 and the Cardinals are a team that he has really struggled against in the past. In nine career starts against St. Louis, Bush is only 2-6 with an ERA of 6.40 and the Cardinals big hitters have killed him. Matt Holiday has a career .429 batting average against Bush and Albert Pujols is a .300 career hitter against Bush. The Cardinals rookie starting pitcher Jaime Garcia has been dominant against the Brewers this season posting a 2-0 record with an ERA of just 1.42 and I expect another solid effort from him in this game. The Brewers are only 17-37 in Bush's last fifty four road starts and Milwuakee is 0-7 in their last seven road games when facing a left handed starter. The Cardinals have been very good in the opening games of a series as they are 48-18 in their last sixty six opening games of a series and they are 8-2 in their last ten games after an off game. Play on St. Louis.

CAJUN SPORTS
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Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Coming off a nice win with the Tampa Bay Rays right here Monday night, we return on Tuesday night with another American League gem in the White Sox – Twins matchup. The Sox are 1-4 on the road versus teams with a winning record, 1-4 when facing right-handed starters, 7-19 their last twenty-six games versus the Twins, 1-6 when Dank’s takes the bump in the Twin Cities and 6-20 overall in Minnesota. The Twins enter this contest with solid technical support including 4-0 their last four at home versus teams with a winning record, 4-0 the last four times Baker has taken the mound, 14-5 when he starts at home and 5-1 when Baker faces teams at home with a winning record. Minnesota is 46-22 overall at home and 44-17 at home facing left-handed starters. Short favorite with solid technical support points to an all systems go on the Minnesota Twins tonight.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Minnesota Twins 5 Chicago White Sox 2

Gill Alexander
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PHI (-145) vs SFG
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Anyway you slice it, Oswalt has an edge on Zito across the board. Zito has a 4.08FIP and 4.57xFIP w a somewhat fortunate .273BABIP. He has a 5.73ERA in his last 8 road starts. Oswalt has a 2.79ERA as a member of the Phillies. He has a 1.12WHIP in 2010 (11th best in MLB), a 3.35FIP (20th best in MLB), and 3.56xFIP (15th best in MLB). The key driving stat in this one, though, is that Zito has given up 8 HRs in his last 5G, including at least 1 in each. Against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, that spells trouble. The Phillies are scorching hot at 18-5 in their last 23 ballgames. They've won 15 of 17 at home and 12 of their last 16 at home v SF. Now, they may be getting Chase Utley back. The Giants are coming off a series loss at home to the Padres, the very club they're chasing in the NL West. I believe it was the portent of a bit of a Giants tailspin. I expect Oswalt to get it done against a Giants club that has batted .175 in their last 5 games away from AT&T, and for the Phillies to go big fly on Zito and get their 19th victory in their last 24 ballgames.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Tampa Bay Rays host the Texas Rangers tonight at 7:10 EST in the second game of the series. Tonight’s Tip is all about the pitching matchup! Tampa Bay got the 6-4 Win last night and plan on doing the same in tonight’s game! Hunter is starting for the Texas Rangers and has been pitching awful. He has an extremely high 8.76 ERA and 2.028 WHIP in his last three starts. On the other side of the pitching matchup, Garza is on the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays. He has been having a decent season. He has had three straight team start losses so Garza is due for a good performance! He has a 3.05 ERA and an amazing 0.968 WHIP in his last three starts. Play on Tampa Bay!

DAVE MALINSKY

COLORADO +1.5 over L.A. DODGERS
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It should come as absolutely no surprise that we are in play here – after playing against the Dodger offense in some fashion in every game of the Atlanta series, when they managed just four earned runs through the four games, we will again buck a team that brings little punch to the table, and even less life as their playoff hopes vanish. In this instance, the long flight from Atlanta, without a day off, only exacerbates matters.
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So why the Run Line instead of taking the price for the outright win? Two keys here – first it offers the best tool to go directly into the Dodger offense, daring them to score enough to get a margin, and note that they are just 6-25 as -1.5 since the All Star break. Second, we simply do not trust Huston Street right now, and we are not going to back many road teams to win outright when the closer is not on his game. The Rockies have already lost seven road games by a single run since the All Star break, and some of that falls on the shoulders of Street, who has worked to an ugly 7.56 in August, with a pair of losses and a pair of blown saves.
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But the Run Line is absolutely a fit. Jhoulys Chacin returns to the Colorado rotation on form, having thrown seven shutout innings at AAA in his last outing, and while Street’s recent stuff has not been good, the entire bullpen comes in rested and ready, having had Monday off. Meanwhile the Dodgers bring their own issues in terms of closing a game out, with Hong-Chih Kuo unlikely to be available here off of multiple innings and 28 pitches last night, especially after also throwing 20 on Saturday, looking noticeably tired in the 9th at Atlanta. That could mean a return to the closers role tonight for the struggling Jonathan Broxton, although we question whether the Dodgers are able to create a save opportunity in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS
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PHILADELPHIA –1 +1.00 over San Francisco
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If you don’t have an account at Pinnacle than you may not have the luxury of being able to lay a single run and therefore laying 1½-runs would be recommended. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito and despite some decent numbers, Zito remains one of the biggest imposters in the game and this park is unlikely to be as friendly as the others. Zito is 0-4 with a 5.73 ERA in eight road starts since a 3-2 win at Florida on May 5 and he has one of the highest LOB% in the league, which stands at 78%. His xERA is 4.57, which is more than a full run higher than his actual 3.44 ERA. He also has a very low groundball rate of 36% and what we have here is some unsustainable stats that have been sticking for too long. This is a serious FLUKE ALERT and it’s aimed at Zito. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt had a 6-12 record with the Astros this year but that was the product of the team he was pitching for, not his own skills. Oswalt has been his vintage self this year with great skills, great control and a 105 BPV. In his first start with the Phillies he was hit pretty good but followed that up with two straight dominant outings in which he gave up eight hits and two earned runs over 13.1 innings. He also induced 25 groundballs to just 12 flyballs over those two games and faces a struggling Giants squad. San Fran has scored just nine runs and batted .175 in its last five road games. They’ve now lost four of its last five on the road and overall, over its last 12 games, the Giants have been held to three runs or less eight times. The Phillies have won 18 of its past 23 overall and 15 of its last 17 at home and with a huge advantage on the hill and with Chase Utley and/or Ron Howard expected back, this one has easy win written all over it. Play: Philadelphia –1 +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

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HOUSTON +1.53 over NY Mets
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The Mets got a much-needed win last night and they beat the red-hot Wandy Rodriguez in the process. That’s a confidence boost but let’s not get too carried away. They still had scored just one run going to the ninth and they’re still batting a puny .212 over its last 14 games. Nelson Figueroa was claimed off of waivers from the Phillies just a few weeks ago. He made 17 starts in Triple-A last year, as well as three this season. During that time, he has recorded a 2.06 ERA and has allowed just six home runs in 131 innings. Figueroa has shown some respectable stats for the second consecutive season and while his upside is limited and he’s far from a sure thing, the value here on the Astros at home is too good to pass up on. Johan Santana continues to defy logic. His groundball rate is awful at 32% and there’s a good chance those balls caught at Citi Field will find gaps or the fences here. Santana has thrown a ton of pitches over the last month and is coming off a complete game, four-hit shutout over the Rockies. He also has that civil lawsuit hanging over his head and while he surely can win again in this spot, the fact is, he’s way overvalued pitching for a laboring Mets offense. Play: Houston +1.53 (Risking 2 units).

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Toronto +1.06 over OAKLAND
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Brandon Morrow and a very warm Jays team plus a tag against the A’s is very appealing indeed. All Morrow has done over his last two starts covering 14.1 innings, is strikeout 26 and walk four. Morrow is wickedly good and with nine days off between starts and with his confidence soaring, he could definitely dominate again. The Bluebirds keep on winning and they’re very simply a whole lot more dangerous than the A’s. Dallas Braden is having a very decent year but in no way is he even close to the skill level of Morrow. Braden's sub-4.00 ERA's in ’08 and ’09 were more the result of luck than skill, as he had xERA's of 4.52 and 4.77. This season, however, his xERA of 4.12 is much closer to his actual ERA. However, Braden is a low dominance pitcher so he doesn't have much room for error and it says here a correction is his numbers are forthcoming the rest of the way. Win or lose here, the Jays a pooch with its best pitcher going is way off target. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).