Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -120
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The Twins have had Chicago's number. They are 8-4 against the White Sox this season, and they have won 20 of their last 26 home meetings with the South Siders. The Twins are playing some of their best baseball of the season, having won 7 of their last 8. Meanwhile, the Sox are struggling, having lost 6 of their last 8. Plus, Minnesota will be in good hands with Baker. The Twins are 4-0 in Baker's last 4 starts and 14-5 in his last 19 home starts. The Twins are also 4-0 in Bakers last 4 starts vs. the White Sox. Danks is having a strong year for Chicago, and he just beat the Twins last week, but we can't ignore the fact that the Sox are just 1-6 in his last 7 road starts vs. the Twins. Take Minnesota at a solid home price against a club it has owned.
John Ryan
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Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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5* graded play on Detroit as they take on the Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will win this game. The AL East has arguably the two best teams in the AL and suddenly Tampa Bay and the Yankees are tied with identical 72-46 records. Boston is in third place and trails both of them and the wild card leader by 5.5 games. Is it possible the Yankees could falter down the stretch and Boston run past them into the playoffs? We certainly think so. Verlander starts for the Tigers and he has always been impressive against the East sporting a 23-8 team record. he has been a stud on this mediocre team this season posting a 13-7 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.227 WHIP in 24 starts. Over his last six starts he has gone eight innings twice, seven innings twice, and six innings twice. Over his past three starts he has posted a 3.60 ERA allowing just one home run and striking out 17 in 20 innings of work. Even more impressive is that he has allowed just 10 home runs in his 24 starts spanning 157 1/3 innings on the season. Sabathia has been equal to Verlander, but recently he is showing signs of fatigue allowing 24 hits in his last 23 1/3 innings spanning his last three starts. Strong defense has helped him greatly over this three game span. We think Detroit can get to him and that Verlander can dominate a struggling Yankee offense. Plus, we are getting paid $1.60 to back the Tigers.
Wunderdog
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Chicago Sky vs. Atlanta Dream
Play: Chicago Sky +8.5
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When the games become important, as this one does to Atlanta, you can always expect the line to be juiced as this one is as well. The Dream played Chicago twice at home this year with the largest line being -7, so this one has been padded for sure. The Dream have really limped down the stretch, losing four of their last five. They are also just 6-9 in their last 15. Chicago was just whacked at home by this Dream team, so they may have some fire to put the lights out on the Dream's playoffs hopes, playing loose and free. I like Chicago in this one.
Tony Stoffo
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Blue Jays vs. Athletics
Play: Under 7
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Everything I looked at for tonight's match up between the Blue Jays and A's points towards another low scoring game here. First off Toronto will have to face Dallas Braden who has been sharp in his last 3 starts allowing just 7 runs, and 17 hits in 24 innings pitched resulting in a 2.62 ERA and 0.917 WHIP. Add in the fact that the Blue Jays have had major problems hitting lefties so far this year with a .214 AVG and .280 OBP and you can see how Toronto won't get much accomplished here tonight against Braden. While the A's will also have a difficulties tonight having to face Brandon Morrow who you can say is coming off of the most dominating performance of the entire season with his 17 strikeout, 1 hit shutout against the solid hitting Rays. Plus add in the fact that Morrow is a perfect 3-0 against Oakland, and that the A's have now seen the under go 13-0-1 in their last 14 starts makes for a strong release on the under once again tonight.
Teddy Covers
Blue Jays @ Athletics
PICK: Under 7
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Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s free play write-up supporting the Under, a ‘right side’ 3-1 final cash. The Oakland A’s have been Under machines in recent weeks. Their light hitting lineup has been repeatedly stymied by opposing pitchers, but their own staff has been strong enough to keep them competitive in almost every game. Oakland has 13 Unders and one push in their 14 August ballgames, with all fourteen games producing a combined total of eight runs or less. There’s absolutely no reason to expect any sort of dramatic change today – this matchup looks very much like another pitcher’s duel.
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Toronto’s Brandon Morrow threw 137 pitches in his last start against Tampa Bay, holding the Rays without a hit into the ninth inning. Morrow got skipped in the rotation following that exhausting effort, leaving him fresh and rested for tonight’s start. “I’ve been feeling pretty good for the last couple days. It’s nice to have that time off.” The A’s managed just a single hit against Shaun Marcum last night, and Morrow, a Bay Area native, has never lost to Oakland in his career. Expect A’s runs to be few and far between once again here.
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But the Blue Jays can’t hit lefties like Oakland’s Dallas Braden, batting just .217 against southpaws for the season. Toronto has managed only eleven runs of offense in their first four games of their current West Coast swing; held to three runs or less seven times in their last eleven ballgames. Braden needed only 104 pitches to throw a complete game four hitter against Seattle in his most recent start, poised for similar success tonight. 2* Take the Under.
Larry Ness
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Florida Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Florida Marlins
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Florida opened its 10-game road trip with a three-game sweep of Washington but then lost all three contests in Cincinnati before falling 7-1 to the Pirates in the series opener Monday, as Pittsburgh ended a seven-game slide. Incredibly, the Marlins went 0-for-27 with RISP against the Reds and then went 0-for-6 last night vs the Pirates. The Marlins have now scored just seven runs in their four-game slide, as they send Ricky Nolasco out vs Zach Duke. The pitching matchup sure bodes well for Florida, as Nolasco has won EIGHT of his last 10 starts to move to 13-9 (4.39 ERA) on the season. He's been just terrific on the road this season, going 9-2 (3.59 ERA) in 13 starts (team is 10-3). His home ERA is 5.46. As for Zach Duke, the lefty's rookie season of 2005 (8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts) is a distant memory. He's 5-11 (5.20 ERA) this season, giving him an overall 34-64 (.347) mark since that rookie season (4.15 ERA). He's winless in five career starts vs Florida (0-3 with a 5.76 ERA / team is 0-5) and there's little reason to think he'll have any more success vs the Marlins in this one. Florida stops its losing skid, as Nolasco picks up yet another road win.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -101
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The Blue Jays have had their way with the A's, winning 16 of the last 21 overall meetings and 5 of the last 6 in Oakland. I expect Toronto's winning ways to continue with the red hot Morrow on the mound. The Jays are a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Morrow is also 3-0 w/ a 3.91 ERA in 4 career starts against Oakland. The A's have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7, and they are just 2-5 in Braden's last 7 home starts. Braden has lost 2 of 3 career starts to Toronto, and he was pounded the last time he faced the Jays, giving up 5 runs in 6 2/3 innings. Take Toronto.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
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Blue Jays starter Brandon Morrow is coming off the most dominant start of the season by any starter. Yes, that includes all of the no-hitters and perfect games thrown this year. Morrow pitched a 1-hit shutout while striking out 17 batters in a 1-0 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. He had a no-hitter going through 8.2 innings, but a weak ground ball by Evan Longoria ended his no-hit bid. Smartly, the Blue Jays decided to give him 10 days rest while skipping his last start which will have him coming into this start against Oakland very fresh.
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Morrow is now 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA over his last 4 starts, striking out 40 batters while walking only 10. Toronto continues playing great baseball, going 22-12 in their last 34 games to improve to 63-55 this season. Oakland has gone in a different direction, losers of four straight and six of their last seven. During their 1-6 run, the A's have scored a miniscule 1.7 RPG. This putrid offensive team will have a very hard time getting going against Morrow tonight. The righty is 3-0 with a 3.91 ERA in four career starts vs. Oakland. He has allowed 2 earned runs in 14 innings over his last 2 starts versus the A's for a 1.29 ERA. Oakland starter Dallas Braden has allowed 8 earned runs over 12.2 innings in his last 2 starts vs. Toronto for a 5.68 ERA. Roll with Toronto Tuesday.
Info Plays
3* on Washington Nationals +167
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Reasons the Nats win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ATLANTA) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. This is a very profitable 32-21 ML System hitting 60.4% since 1997 while gaining +38.7 units.
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2.) The Braves are not hitting well over the past month, really. Atlanta has scored 4 runs or less in 16 of their past 21 games overall. Nationals starter Scott Olsen hs posted a 3.68 ERA in 5 road starts this season. Olsen is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts against Atlanta. Bet the Nationals on the road.
Doug Upstone
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Boston returns home after losing series at Texas, but has to feel good tonight hosting the L.A. Angels. The Red Sox are seven for seven against the Halos this season and will see the tosses of Jered Weaver (11-7, 2.87 ERA). The right-hander pitcher throws much better at the Big A in Anaheim as noted by his 4.11 ERA on the road and Weaver and friends are 4-13 as visitors playing against a team with a winning record since last season. BoSox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (13-5, 2.56) has only permitted 105 hits in over 126 innings and his club is 13-3 in night games.
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Boston has suffered an unusual amount of injuries, yet are stilled second in baseball in runs scored at 5.1 per contest. This evening look at home teams with a money line of -100 to -150, who average 4.7 to 5.2 runs a game, against a reliable AL starter with ERA of 4.20 or less, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits an outing. Since 2008 this system is 34-7.
Dan Bebe
ARI (-101) vs CIN
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How many times are you going to see a 1st place team within 4 cents of being the listed underdog to one of the worst teams in the National League?
That's right; not often.
Due to time constraints, I must be brief.
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Daniel Hudson has been on a furious roll since coming over to the National League, throwing 3 straight brilliant outings with the D'backs of 7 innings (or more), and either 1 or 2 runs allowed. His fine work, as well as the strong pitching of Barry Enright, has given the D'backs a little confidence, and the bullpen has responded with some improved play, as well.
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Bronson Arroyo has been extremely consistent, but his lifetime work against the D'backs is not strong (1-3, 5.23 ERA). A few of the D'backs regulars have hit him very hard, and the Reds have not played well, historically, on the road against NL West teams.
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This line is just screwy enough to tempt me. Let's play a Freebie on the D'backs!
OAK (-105) vs TOR
This is more a fade on Brandon Morrow than it is a play on anything else.
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Morrow is coming off a near-miss of a no-hitter, and a game where he struck out 17 opposing Tampa Bay Rays. It is not easy to come back in the next start and try to "start over" after being so close to an historic moment.
Morrow also went to College in the Bay Area, and I expect he'll be dealing with friends/family, as well as some different emotions of pitching so close to where he went to school. He won't be bad, since Oakland's offense isn't really good enough to make a pitcher look bad, but he won't be as dominant as he was the last time out, and the value is definitely on the other side.
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Dallas Braden is coming off a complete game, 1-run gem against Seattle, and the A's have won 4 of his last 5 starts after that prolonged losing skid. He's a guy that is trending upward, and I love the value we can get on an undervalued pitcher.
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Oakland wins this game well over 50% of the time, so it's in our best interest to get a line that says they won't. Not the most grammatically straightforward sentence there, but suffice it to say that Oakland will win a close one, and we'll take it.
Play the A's!
Dave Cokin
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Reds at Diamondbacks
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A long road trip for Cincinnati, out West. The Reds have never faced Daniel Hudson of the Diamondbacks, a terrific young arm with a 4-1 record and a 3.52 ERA. He has fanned 31 in 28 innings and is 3-0 his last three starts with a sizzling 1.59 ERA. The team is 2-3 in the last 5 starts made by Bronson Arroyo, making this a great spot for the home team. Play the Diamondbacks.
Michael Cannon
Florida (-145) at PITTSBURGH
The Marlins did me in on yesterday’s free play but I’m sticking with them tonight over the Pirates.
Zach Duke starts for Pittsburgh and if Florida can’t get to him they can’t get to anybody. The left-hander is 5-11 with a 5.20 ERA on the year. He’s 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts and 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA in five career starts versus Florida.
The Marlins will counter with Ricky Nolasco and if he can’t shut this pitiful lineup down there’s something wrong. The right-hander is 8-2 with a 3.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.
Florida has struggled offensively, particularly with runners in scoring position, but should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs against Duke.
Take the Marlins for the road win.
4♦ FLORIDA
Chuck O'Brien
Cincinnati at ARIZONA
Tuesday’s complimentary selection comes from the Arizona desert, as I’ll play the DBacks-Reds game UNDER the total.
Love the two starting pitchers going here. First off, rookie Daniel Hudson has been sensational since being traded from the White Sox to Arizona, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in three starts, yielding just four runs, 13 hits and four walks with 17 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings. And in his only home start, Hudson shut down the first-place Padres, giving up just one run on three hits in 7 2/3 innings.
As for the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo, he’s been a rock all season, going 12-7 with a 3.94 ERA, including 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA on the road. Take out an 8-5 home loss to Washington on July 21 (seven runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings), and Arroyo has posted an 1.88 ERA in seven other starts since July 1 (10 earned runs in 48 innings). And in his last six road outings, Arroyo has yielded just eight runs in 45 innings (1.40 ERA).
Also, check out the final scores in Arroyo’s recent starts: 6-1, 3-0, 5-2, 3-2, 8-5, 3-2, 3-1, 12-0, 5-3, 4-2 and 7-1. The under cashed in nine of those 11 contests.
But that’s not the most impressive stat. This is: In the last 61 meetings between these squads, the under is 43-13-5, including 18-4-2 in the last 24 clashes! And 16 of the last 21 meetings in Arizona have stayed low. Finally, both bullpens are in top form (over the past 10 games, Cincinnati’s relievers have a 3.09 ERA, while Arizona’s much-maligned pen has a 2.63 ERA in its last 10).
4♦ UNDER
Scott Delaney
Colorado (+165) at LOS ANGELES
I realize both teams are struggling this season, and neither team look anything like they did last year, but there is some value when they face one another - particularly tonight.
This is a pitching rematch between Clayton Kershaw and Jhoulys Chacin, and my money is on Chacin getting revenge on a weary Dodgers team that just got back from Atlanta and has had no rest after wrapping up their series last night.
Los Angeles lost five of six to end its seven-game road trip, and was stymied in its four-game set against the Braves, totaling just six runs while losing three of four.
Last night they squandered a two-run, ninth-inning lead and lost 4-3.
So to come home and have to face a rested Rockies team that had the night off tells me this is a value play on the highly priced underdog.
Chacin should show some poise, as he beat the Dodgers on May 8, when he scattered six hits over 7 1/3 innings in an 8-0 rout at Los Angeles.
Play the Rockies tonight and list both pitchers.
2♦ COLORADO