Derek Mancini
Seattle at BALTIMORE (-125)
Now 6-1 with my L7 Free Play releases, including the Pirates over the Marlins 7-1 Monday! Rolling with the resurgent Orioles here, who've suddenly found a little mojo with Showalter at the helm.
Since taking over as manager, Showalter has led the Orioles to a 10-4 record, including an impressive 7-1 mark at Camden Yards. Although their season is all but over, they're playing with a new found pride and confidence that comes with winning - and I like it, especially in this spot.
The Orioles want to get Kevin Millwood (2-12, 5.74 ERA) a win, being that his last win came in late June. The good news is he's pitched well enough to win in his L2 starts, pitching back-to-back quality efforts, allowing 4 runs combined over his L13 innings. True, he's got pitiful numbers against the Mariners for his career, but Seattle's offense is garbage, and if ever he's going to reverse that trend, it'll be tonight.
Baltimore's offense isn't much better, especially vs a lefty like Lucas French (1-3, 4.96 ERA), but this match up maybe the exception. Why? Well, it could have something to do with French's 0-2 record and 7.04 ERA on the road. He was terrible at St. Louis, and not too much better at Minnesota in his only 2 road starts. Baltimore might not have the offense of either of those teams, but they are playing with A LOT of confidence under Showalter at home. Lay it with Baltimore (Millwood) over Seattle (French) Tuesday.
2♦ BALTIMORE
Karl Garrett
Seattle at BALTIMORE (-125)
Comp play winner on Tampa Bay last night to make it a 14-8-1 run the last 23 days for FREE.
On to Tuesday and a play on Baltimore.
Kevin Millwood is just 2-12 on the season, but the way the Orioles continue to plug away under new manager Buck Showalter, I have to give them a play tonight as the cheap home chalk.
Baltimore is 10-4 under their new skipper, and they have won 7 of their last 8 games played at Camden Yards.
The O's are also 8-3 their last 11 games played at home versus the M's.
Seattle comes into this one off of last night's blown lead, a loss that dropped them to just 17-41 on the road this season. Starter Lucas French is trying to figure out a way to stay in the starting rotation, and his 1-3 mark with a 4.88 ERA is not quite cutting the mustard.
Going to stick with the hot hand, and play Baltimore to move to 11-4 under their new skipper.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Joel Tyson
Detroit (+165) at NY YANKEES
Blue Jays a free winner last night from "Iron" Joel Tyson.
For Tuesday, why not take the Tigers as the underdog against the Yankees?
Both Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher left last night's loss for New York, and the way the Yankees are swinging the bats right now, it may take a CC shutout to win this game for New York.
The Yankees have lost their last pair, and 5 of their last 8, and they are also just 1-4 in this year's season series against Detroit.
We all know that Justin Verlander is more than capable of going out there and locking down the struggling New York attack, and over his last 3 starts against the Yankees, Verlander has allowed just 2 earned runs in 21 innings worked.
Sabathia was rocked for 6 runs in 6 innings of work the last time he faced Detroit back in May, and you know that he isn't going to go undefeated at home for the entire year.
Great value tonight with the visiting underdog!
2♦ DETROIT
Chris Jordan
L.A. Angels at BOSTON
Last night I scored with the total in the preseason football game that took place in the new stadium in Jersey, as the Over was an easy choice.
Tonight I'll stick with the same theme, carry it over to the diamond and play the Under in the Red Sox/Angels game.
Looking at this showdown between Clay Buccholz and Jered Weaver, I swear this could easily up a 1-0 ball game.
Buchholz is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his last four outings, and ranks among the league leaders in ERA (2.49) and tied with fellow All-Star Jon Lester for the team high in victories (13). Buchholz is 4-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last five outings at Fenway.
As for Weaver, he is 2-0 with an 0.83 ERA in three starts this month and comes in after lasting a season-high eight innings in Wednesday's 2-1, 10-inning victory over Kansas City, as he recorded 11 strikeouts to raise his major league-leading total to 182.
Expect quite the battle between these two, as it stays low.
1♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels at BOSTON (-135)
Tonight's FREE winner comes on the Red Sox as they host the Angels in the opener of this three-game series.
The Angels just dropped two of three at home to the Blue Jays and now they hit the road and take on the Red Sox tonight at Fenway Park in Boston. It seems the Angels are just about done in the race for the A.L. West while the Red Sox are still fighting to get in the wildcard and A.L. East picture. I’m paying the price and going with Boston in tonight’s series opener.
On the hill for the Red Sox is Clay Buchholz (13-5, 2.49 ERA), who is 2-0 in his last three with a 1.54 ERA and who has a 2.81 ERA at home this season. Buchholz was dominant in his last start on Thursday, giving up one unearned run in Toronto and beating the Blue Jays 10-1. His last home start was also a gem, when he gave up one earned run in eight innings on just two hits to the Tigers, winning 4-3.
Last time Buchholz saw the Angels was July 26 when he held them to one run on five hits in seven innings, striking out seven en route to a 6-3 victory. Boston has won each of his last four starts and eight of his last nine.
Jered Weaver (11-7, 2.82 ERA) has a 4.00 ERA on the road this season but he has been pretty solid in his last three games, allowing just four runs in 22 innings. Key here tonight is his struggles at Fenway Park. In three starts there since 2007, Weaver has given up 14 runs in 15 innings of work and the Angels have gone 1-2.
Los Angeles is on slides of 5-11 against right-handers, 5-14 against winning teams, 5-15 on the road, 5-16 against A.L. East teams and 1-6 when Weaver starts on the road against winning teams. On the other side, Boston is riding surges of 65-28 after an off day, 47-21 on Tuesdays, 5-0 in Buchholz’s last five home starts, 24-7 in his last 31 starts overall and 13-3 when he pitches a series opener.
Boston has beaten the Angels seven straight times and four straight at Fenway. Play the Red Sox with Buchholz on the hill tonight.
3♦ BOSTON
Stephen Nover
Chicago (+110) at MINNESOTA
I am on a 55-37-1 hot streak with my free selections after cashing on Monday night with Tampa Bay.
Tonight, my complimentary selection is the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox enter Target Field trailing first place Minnesota in the AL Central by three games. So this is a pivotal series for Chicago. A day off on Monday should help the White Sox regain their focus, not to mention give their beleaguered bullpen needed rest.
The Twins definitely are playing better than the White Sox, vaulting ahead of them into first place. But a pitching matchup of John Danks versus Scott Baker puts me on the White Sox.
Baker is 10-9 with a 4.76 ERA. He faced the White Sox a week ago and gave up five runs (four earned) in six innings. He's not as good a pitcher as Danks.
Danks has a 1.93 ERA in his last five starts. He is 5-1 in his last six decisions, including beating Minnesota, 6-1, six days ago holding the Twins to one run in eight innings.
Danks has surrendered one earned or less in four of his past five starts. He's given up just one home run during his last eight starts.
Look for Danks to get the job done for the White Sox in this pivotal Game 1 matchup.
3♦ CHICAGO
Jay McNeil
Angels at Red Sox
Looking at the pitchers we're dealing with, and gauging the numbers involved, I have to play this one low.
First off, with Weaver, who has a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts - all of which have gone Under. The Angels are 3-0 in his last three starts because of his arm, and 15 of his 23 totals with him on the hill have stayed low this season.
With Buccholz on the slab, he has a 1.54 ERA in his last three starts, all of which the Red Sox have won.
With the Angels, the under is on winning streaks of 4-0 on the road against winning teams, 4-0 with Weaver on the road, 4-1 when he opens a series and 4-1 overall.
With the Red Sox, the under is on winning runs of 5-1 when they're in off a loss, 5-0 with Buccholz at home and 7-2 whe he opposes a winning team.
2♦ UNDER
Matt Rivers
Nice free winner on the Padres last night!
Let’s follow it up with a winner on the A’s over the Blue Jays.
Toronto sends Brandon Morrow to the hill for the first time since his dominating one-hit, 17-strikeout gem over Tampa Bay on Aug. 8. The right-hander had his last start skipped because he threw 137 pitches in that win and I expect him to be a little rusty tonight.
Oakland counters with Dallas Braden, who is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA since being activated from the DL on July 20.
Let’s take the A’s for the home win.
1♦ OAKLAND
Chuck O'Brien
Tuesday’s complimentary selection comes from the Arizona desert, as I’ll play the DBacks-Reds game UNDER the total.
Love the two starting pitchers going here. First off, rookie Daniel Hudson has been sensational since being traded from the White Sox to Arizona, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in three starts, yielding just four runs, 13 hits and four walks with 17 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings. And in his only home start, Hudson shut down the first-place Padres, giving up just one run on three hits in 7 2/3 innings.
As for the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo, he’s been a rock all season, going 12-7 with a 3.94 ERA, including 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA on the road. Take out an 8-5 home loss to Washington on July 21 (seven runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings), and Arroyo has posted an 1.88 ERA in seven other starts since July 1 (10 earned runs in 48 innings). And in his last six road outings, Arroyo has yielded just eight runs in 45 innings (1.40 ERA).
Also, check out the final scores in Arroyo’s recent starts: 6-1, 3-0, 5-2, 3-2, 8-5, 3-2, 3-1, 12-0, 5-3, 4-2 and 7-1. The under cashed in nine of those 11 contests.
But that’s not the most impressive stat. This is: In the last 61 meetings between these squads, the under is 43-13-5, including 18-4-2 in the last 24 clashes! And 16 of the last 21 meetings in Arizona have stayed low. Finally, both bullpens are in top form (over the past 10 games, Cincinnati’s relievers have a 3.09 ERA, while Arizona’s much-maligned pen has a 2.63 ERA in its last 10).
4♦ UNDER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for you tonight comes in the crucial series starting in Minnesota as I go with the Twins to take the opener against the White Sox.
Minnesota has started to pull away a bit in the A.L. Central race and can do so even more with this three-game set against the White Sox. The Twins took two of three in Chicago last week and have won four in a row overall. On the other side, the White Sox lost two of three to the Tigers over the weekend after losing two of three at home to these Twins.
Minnesota has won eight of 11 against Chicago at home and five of the last six overall. Scott Baker goes for the Twins tonight and they have won each of his last four starts and four straight times he’s faced the White Sox.
John Danks is on the mound for Chicago and this guy has struggled already twice in Minnesota this season, allowing a combined nine runs on 16 hits over 13 innings.
The White Sox are just 1-4 in their last five roadies against winning teams while the Twins are on several good streaks, such as 22-7 overall, 44-17 against left-handers, 14-5 when Baker pitches at home and 15-6 when he sees an A.L. Central rival.
Go with Minnesota behind Baker tonight.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Insider Angles
Toronto @ Oakland
Brandon Morrow of the Toronto Blue Jays came within one out of pitching a no-hitter in his last start, but even with a couple of extra days off, he is a prime bounce candidate here vs. Dallas Braden and the Oakland Athletics.
Morrow had 17 strikeouts in that 1-0 win where the only hit he allowed in the game came wit two outs in the ninth inning, but he ended up tossing 137 pitches in the outing, easily a season high for him. Furthermore, because of the score of the game, they were 137 pressure pitches, which take more out of the arm than an ordinary effort.
Recall that Edwin Jackson needed 149 pitches to complete his non-hitter earlier this year, and even with extra rest before his next start, it took about a month before Jackson had another quality outing. Now we are not saying this will happen with Morrow also, but we do feel he is up against it in this start immediately after the high-pitch outing.
Besides, Braden has a perfect game himself this year and he has managed to maintain his fine form throughout. His overall 7-8 record is extremely misleading, as he has a nice 3.56 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 129 innings. Braden has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, and he allowed only four runs in the lone non-quality outing.
Braden has a 3.39 ERA here at home, so all things considered this is a cheap price for him in this ballpark.
Pick: Athletics -110
Steve Janus
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Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Florida Marlins -1½
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I am taking the Marlins to cover the run line against the Pirates on Tuesday. Florida will send Ricky Nolasco to the mound, who is coming off six innings of work against the Nationals where he allowed zero runs and struck out eight. For the Pirates they will start Zach Duke, who is been unreliable all season, and has a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts, but most imporantantly he is just 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA at home this season. I look for the Marlins to break out of a slump and win this game easily.
Black Widow
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1* on Baltimore Orioles -122
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Baltimore has been revived in the month of August under the guidance of new manager Buck Showalter. Since August 3rd, the Orioles are 10-4 in 14 games. Baltimore should tee off tonight against Seattle starter Luke French, who is 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.468 WHIP this season. French is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP on the road this year. The Mariners lost by 1 run in extra innings last night, and Seattle is 7-27 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in road games revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Mariners are 0-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season. As you can see, Seattle is not a very resilient bunch and that's why they are prone to losing streaks. The Orioles have all of the momentum heading into this one and we are getting them at a solid price Tuesday. Take Baltimore on the Money Line.
Spartan
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CLE (+153) vs KAN
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It's very likely this will not be a popular selection and I realize that. Fact is I do like the Indians tonight to win this game against Zack Greinke and the Royals. Even with Greinke on the bump there is no way in hell they should be this kind of chalk against anybody. I also realize Greinke is last years Cy Young award winner and has been getting to ton of respect from odds makers all season long but the stubborn fact is he has been struggling for the large part all year long. The guy is a soldier and keeps taking the ball and giving 100% but word around Kansas City is he is pretty fed up with the whole Royals organization and it's never ending rebuilding phase. Greinke wants to play with a contender and is starting to make it known. As for tonights specific game he has drawn a little know young hurler for Cleveland who appears to have all the tools to be around a long time. Jeanmar Gomez has posted a 3-0 mark with a stellar 1.54 era. Actually both clubs have been playing decent ball in the last week but Greinke is still getting way too much love from last year, I think Gomez is the real deal and a tremendous value tonight. Indians the smart play here guys.