SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +175 over Toronto
The Blue Jays went from about 25-1 to win the World Series before the trade deadline to their current price of about 6-1. We point this out to acknowledge the markets’ interest in this team and thus the inflated price you have to pay to back them. Toronto has won 15 of 18 games since July 29, which includes taking four of six against the Yankees. However, things are not as rosy as they appear. Against New York, the Jays offense went dead silent, where they scored 13 earned runs in six games. In the last three games at Rogers Center, Toronto scored in one inning in all three games, therefore getting shutout in 24 of the 27 innings. On Sunday, they scored three times only because Carlos Beltran lost a ball in the sun. In the previous series against the brutal A’s, Toronto swept but again, it was prettier on paper, as the Jays scored all of their runs in five of the 27 innings. The Jays are hitting .229 over their past 12 games and now they’ll face a confident and dangerous young team and pitcher.
Aaron Nola is just one of those ferocious competitors that come around from time to time. His numbers aren’t outstanding but the Phillies have won four of his five starts since he was called up in mid-July. Nola was the 7th overall pick of the 2014 draft. He put together impressive numbers during his 164 minor league innings pitched prior to his call-up. Nola has a polished arsenal that includes a 90-93 mph fastball with plus movement from a ¾ arm slot, along with an above-average slider and change-up. He commands all three pitches very well, can pitch to groundball outs, and even has a bit of deception in his delivery. The movement on his pitches makes it very tough for batters to make consistently solid contact. Nola is starter that moved through the ranks quickly with some of the most dominating stuff in the minors. He also lasted well into the seventh inning or beyond in a high percentage of his minor-league starts. He’s already defeated the D-Backs, Cubbies and Padres on the road and his only lost so far was a 1-0 defeat at home against the Rays.
Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey is so overpriced here. Yeah, Dickey has been outstanding during this Jays run but we all know the bottom can fall out at any time. Besides that, Dickey has one road win in 11 starts. His ERA on the road is 4.76 with an oppBA of .292. In summarizing; the Jays are very capable of coming in here, snapping a batting slump and absolutely running away with this game. Thing is, capable does not make them worthy of this price on the road with Dickey going against a real gamer in Aaron Nola. There’s also the letdown factor in play for the Jays here after an entire country was rooting and cheering them for a two meaningful series against the Yankees in August for the first time in 22 years. HUGE overlay here.
Miami +128 over MILWAUKEE
The Marlins will start a rookie southpaw here in Adam Conley. The Brewers will start a rookie righty in Tyler Cravy. So, not only do we get the better rookie starter here, but we get a pretty nice price too. Besides all that, have you seen the Brewers bat against lefties? Milwaukee’s .214 batting average versus left-handed pitchers is the worst mark in the majors by a large margin. Adam Conley has made just two starts and six overall appearances since his call-up in early June. Prior to that, Conley was putting up effective numbers in the difficult Pacific Coast League with a 3.05 ERA over 59 frames. He has a solid mid-90s mph fastball, along with a plus change-up and a decent slider. In his two starts, Conley is 2-0 and that includes a five-inning, five hit, two-runs allowed effort at Great American Ballpark in Cinci. What’s interesting is that the Marlins scored 14 runs in each of his two starts, a 14-3 win over Cincinnati and a 14-6 win over Boston.
Tyler Cravy was also called up in early June and has appeared in five games with four of those being as a starter. After his July 7 start against Atlanta, Cravy was sent back down to Colorado Springs to work on some things. Upon his recall, he has made two starts and has been tagged for 10 runs in 9.1 innings. Overall, Cravy has a BB/K split of 10/16 in 24 frames. He has walked six batters in those aforementioned nine innings to go along with a 1.93 WHIP and 9.64 ERA. Throw in a 38%/24%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate and one can understand why he’s struggling so much at this unforgiving park. Cravy is a huge risk as the chalk in any range, let alone this range. That doesn’t mean that Adam Conley will have a good game. In fact, if Conley were favored in this range, we would be on the Brewers. The point is, a raw rookie that has been hammered at this level cannot be favored in this price range so that instantly prompts us to play the value.
Tampa Bay +110 over HOUSTON
With just four wins in their past 13 games, which includes being swept by Oakland, the Astronauts are not a very appealing favorite at the moment. The Astros have won a lot of games this year with great pitching while relying heavily on home runs but this is still a team that bats for a low average and has struck out a league-leading and incredible 511 times. What we like about Jake Odorizzi here against the Astros is that he’s only allowed six bombs in 59 innings on the road and just 10 HR’s overall in 116 innings. Odorizzi also brings a 3.09/3.52 ERA/xERA split into this start.Among the things that stick out in his profile are a solid strikeout rate, a high 12% swing and miss rate since the All-Star break, big gains against lefties and a 15% swing and miss rate on his split-change, which was taught and borrowed from Alex Cobb in spring. Odorizzi has 31 K’s in his last 34 innings and he’ll now face a laboring offense (aside from Carlos Correa) that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like.
The Astros are having difficulty winning games these days with Scott Kazmir, Dallas Keuchel or Colin McHugh going. In no way does it get easier with Scott Feldman going. When Feldman pitches, the Astros win expectation drops significantly because they are likely going to have to score five or more to win. Feldman has 51 K’s in 91 innings. He has an overall line-drive rate of 25% but at home, that line-drive rate is 30%. Minute Made Park has been a nightmare for Feldman all year, where he has surrendered 59 hits in 45 frames (oppBA of .319) while posting a 5.56 ERA. Incidentally, current Rays have hit .344 against Feldman in 64 combined AB’s. We get the superior starter, we get the team in better form and we get a tag to go along with it.
Atlanta +175 over SAN DIEGO
James Shields has already thrown 153 innings this year. Prior to this year, he has thrown 200+ innings in eight consecutive seasons.Back in 2011, Shields had his finest season, as he put together a 2.82 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 225 batters in his 249.1 innings of work. That year, Shields also led the American League in complete games (11), shutouts (4) and finished third in the Cy Young vote. That season also marked the least amount that Shields used his cutter. Shields threw his cutter only 15.52% of the time and gave up a .228 batting average and a .354 slugging percentage. In last year’s playoffs, he was absolutely whacked so what he did this year was turn back to his cutter more but the results haven’t been the same. You see, back in 2011, that .228 batting average against his cutter was all smoke and mirrors, as opponents swung and missed on only 6% of the cutters that Shields threw. That batting average against of .228 gave him a false sense of security that he’s paying for this year. In fact, opponents, as they are seeing the cutter more frequently, have produced a .283 batting average and a .439 slugging percentage. Only his rarely used slider has resulted in a higher batting average, and the slider and four-seamer have a higher slugging percentage. Opponents continue to hammer the pitch when making contact. In May, the opposition hit .455 against the cutter. Even though the batting average against the cutter dropped to .281 in June, Shields still had a .500 slugging percentage on that pitch. In July, opponents slugged at a .659 rate against the cutter. Petco Park has made James Shields look very good on several occasions but so what. If it helps Shields, it also helps the opposing pitcher(s). Shields strikeout rate is still high but he continues to give up hard hit balls at an alarming rate and those innings are adding up quickly. He’s now a significant favorite, pitching for a weak ball-club. That’s surely not going to stop our relentless fade against this guy.
An interesting footnote to this game is that Matt Wisler was the preseason #1 prospect for San Diego before he came over to the Braves in the Craig Kimbrel trade. Braves management knows a thing or two about pitchers so the mere fact that they wanted Wisler for a strong trade chip speaks volumes. Wisler comes in with an unimpressive 4.74 ERA through 10 starts. He’s learning on the go but Atlanta likes what they see and so do we. Wisler has a good feel for pitching with great control and a mix of pitches that already include three plus ones. His fastball sits at 94 mph with sink and he has a great slider in the mid-80s and a mid-70s effective curve. Wisler has thrown gems this year against the Cardinals, Rockies (at Coors) and Nationals. One also has to trust he’ll be extra-motivated to beat the team that dealt him and so will his teammates in support of him. Tyson Ross is the only pitcher for the Padres that deserves to be anywhere near this price range. At best, San Diego’s win expectation with Shields going is a generous 50%. In fact, San Diego has lost 11 of the last 13 games that Shields has started and it would come as no surprise if it lost this one too. Big overlay.
San Francisco +145 over ST. LOUIS
Ryan Vogelsong is not going to dazzle anyone. What he will do is likely give the Giants a chance to win just like he almost always does when he takes the mound. In 18 starts, Vogelsong is 8-8 with a 4.15 ERA. The Giants are 10-8 in those starts but it’s also worth noting that Vogelsong has 17 K’s over his past 13 innings and will now face a rather non-threatening offense.
Somehow, some way, the Cardinals continue to win at a pace that just doesn’t make any sense. The Cardinals have the best record in baseball at 76-42. At home, they’re an incredible 45-18. The Cardinals ERA is 2.60. To put that into perspective, Matt Harvey’s ERA is 2.61 so imagine having Matt Harvey pitching every inning of every game this year without having to worry about workload.The last time a team maintained an ERA as low as the Cardinals over a full season was before the DH in 1972. However, more complex run estimators — xERA and SIERA for instance are much less impressed, placing the Cardinals inside the top 10 but outside the top five. The Cardinals don’t strike out batters more often than everyone else, or get grounders more often, or allow fewer walks. They haven’t acted like a team with a surplus of pitching, acquiring two former closers at the trade deadline. And it’s not as if St. Louis has a Royals-esque defense propping up its staff: Its fielders are good, but not great. There is however, one thing St. Louis pitching does better than anyone else; strand baserunners. Cardinals’ pitchers have a collective 83% left-on-base percentage, a rate that has never been matched in the history of this game or since they started keeping such records. League wide, pitchers have allowed an OPS about 40 points higher with men on and in scoring position than they have with the bases empty. The Cardinals have turned that trend on its head, then tackled it, kicked it into unconsciousness, and buried it alive. That’s not the only extreme luck the Cardinals have had. They’ve also enjoyed “cluster luck”. In other words, two teams’ run totals can vary dramatically depending on the way those hits are distributed. A team that bunches its hits in close succession will score more runs than a team that parcels them out sparingly from inning to inning. This seems like something that should even out over the course of a season, and often it does, but it hasn’t come close to equalizing in the Cardinals’ case. The Cardinals’ crackdown with runners in scoring position has saved them 84 runs relative to the total their underlying stats say they should have allowed. Like we tweeted out last night, the Cards are good but they’re also defying logic lucky and have had 9 out of every 10 bounces go their way. Now the Cardinals are without Randall Grichuk and most likely Jason Heyward, who was injured last night. An error by Brandon Crawford in the eighth inning last night paved the way for another Cardinals victory by way of luck. The Giants own MLB’s best road batting average at .271 and so you can pencil us in again on this very live dog against a very beatable Lance Lynn.
Brian Hay
Seattle vs. Texas
Play: Over 9
Hisashi Iwakuma is coming off of a no-hitter in his last start. Historically no-hitters are followed up by a bad outing. His pitch count was also very high in his last two starts, so I expect an early exit for the 34-year old right-hander against a pretty decent offense. On the other side is Chi Chi Gonzalez. Somehow the rookie has managed a 4.22 ERA despite having the worst K-BB ratio in baseball this season. Coming into tonight's game, Gonzalez has only 19 strikeouts in 49 innings of work, and he's walked 24 batters. That's just not going to get it done at any level, so the bottom will be falling out for Gonzalez in a hurry. Over his last four starts, Gonzalez has a horrible 9.47 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Expect more of the same against the Mariners tonight.
Brandon Lee
St. Louis Cardinals -140
St Louis is worth a look here at home against the Giants. The Cardinals have won 9 of their last 12 overall and are now 45-18 at home on the season following yesterday's 2-1 series opener win against the Giants. St Louis will send out underrated starter Lance Lynn, who has a 2.95 ERA over 22 starts and a 2.51 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 12 starts at home. Lynn should have no problem out-performing San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong, who has a 4.95 ERA in 10 road starts and a 4.91 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Vogelsong is also just 3-6 with a 5.43 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cardinals. St Louis is 14-2 in Lynn's last 16 home starts as a favorite of -125 to -150 and 21-5 in their last 26 games following a game in which they scored 2 runs or less.
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Indians +110
Cleveland is showing exceptional value here as an underdog against the Red Sox. Despite being 7-games under .500, Cleveland is a respectable 31-28 on the road this season. The Indians won the series opener 8-2 on Monday and are now 6-3 in their last 9 overall. Boston on the other hand has dropped 2 straight and 4 of 6 overall.
Adding value here is the starting pitching matchup, which will feature Cleveland's Trevor Bauer against Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez. Bauer may have a 4.35 ERA in 23 starts, but has been a different pitcher on the road, where he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 10 starts. Rodriguez has a 4.83 ERA overall in 14 starts, a 5.35 ERA in 7 starts at home and a 6.88 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Red Sox are a mere 15-32 in their last 47 home games when listed as a favorite of -100 to -125 and 4-12 in their last 16 home games with a bullpen ERA of 7.00 or worse over their last 5 games. Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 against the AL East , 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5+ runs and 7-3 in their last 10 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Vegas Butcher
Cincinnati Reds -102 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Iglesias is a young rookie for the Reds, but he’s been an effective pitcher so far this season sporting a 25% K-rate, 3.7 K/BB ratio, and a 3.4 SIERA, the 32nd best mark in the league. Royals have never seen him before so the ‘unfamiliarity’ factor is in his favor. On the other side we have Volquez, who has a 17% K-rate, 2.0 K/BB ratio, and 4.4 SIERA, ranking 119th. Volquez has allowed 12 BB’s and 22 hits in the last 4 starts, spanning 26 innings. He sports a 4.2 ERA in those last 4 starts. Cincy is familiar with Volquez as he pitched for them through 2011 and they’ve seen him 6 times already since he left. Regardless, the Royals are over-valued in this one as I have the Reds at -122 in this matchup. With KC having such a dominant advantage in the bullpen, I’ll only play this one for the first 5 innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -130
Watching this A’s team yesterday I couldn’t help and notice that this team seems to be just going through the motions at this time. Their offense is non-existent, their defense is pathetic, and they’re just mixing and maxing their pitching at this time. On the other side we have the most dominant pitcher in today’s game on the mound for LA, the 5th ranked BP, and the 1st ranked offense (3rd against lefties). The Dodgers have covered 2+ runs in each of Kershaw’s last 5 wins and I think they have a strong chance to do so once again tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Pick: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey has had some very good efforts in recent starts, including his last outing on Wednesday vs. Texas when he spun seven innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball against the Rangers. Though most of those good efforts have come at home, he looks a better option than CC Sabathia, who was involved in an off-field controversy in Toronto over the weekend as his career-worst season (4-9 with 5.23 ERA) proceeds at an uneven pace.
Michael Alexander
San Francisco Giants vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -147
The St. Louis Cardinals own the best record in the majors and can clinch their sixth consecutive series win with a victory over the visiting San Francisco Giants today in the second contest of their three-game set. The Cardinals squeezed out a 2-1 win on Monday to improve to 45-18 at home and extend their lead over second-place Pittsburgh in the National League Central to six games. San Francisco starter Vogelsong has not fared well against St. Louis in his career, going 2-6 with a 6.17 ERA in 19 games (nine starts). While St. Louis starter ynn is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA at home this season
Steve Rich
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Kansas City Royals -114
Vegas continues to offer KC at a low price. They are -115 playing at Cincinnati tonight. The Royals send Edinson Volquez (11-7 3.27 ERA) to the mound vs the Reds Raisel Iglesias (3-4 4.70 ERA). Volquez has been the Royals most consistent pitcher all year. Cueto coming over from the Reds has taken the role of staff ace but Volquez has been steady all season. He had a bad outing last week vs Detroit and I look for him to get back on track tonight against a struggling Reds squad. Iglesias had a nice start last week vs the Padres. Enough said there. Iglesias’ only action against KC was a bullpen appearance in May where he gave up two runs, three hits, and one walk in one inning. The Reds have dropped nine of their last twelve games. We continue to get KC at a cheap price and we will take the better team tonight.
Doug Upstone
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Washington Nationals -148
Play Against NL teams like COLORADO with a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits a start, with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season. Even a team that can smack the ball around cannot overcome bad pitching and since 2011 teams like the Rockies are 18-48 in this spot.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays +111
I believe we are getting the better starter here as an underdog tonight in this match-up between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros. Jake Odorizzi is 6-6 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 19 starts this season for the Rays. But what stands out most is that Odorizzi is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in two lifetime starts versus Houston, pitching 13 shutout innings while allowing only three hits. Scott Feldman is 5-5 with a 4.17 ERA in 15 starts this season for Houston. But Feldman is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight home starts, where he has clearly been at his worst. Feldman is 13-30 (-24.6 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season for his career. The Astros are 52-110 in their last 162 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -160
I'm willing to lay the big juice with one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Toronto Blue Jays (65-54) up against one of the worst teams in the league in the Philadelphia Phillies (46-72). The Blue Jays are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall, while the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six.
R.A. Dickey has been one of the best starters in baseball since the All-Star Break. He is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA in six starts since. Dickey is 5-4 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 11 career starts against Philadelphia. One of those came on July 29 of this year as he pitched eight innings without allowing an earned run in an 8-2 Toronto victory.
Aaron Nola has held his own this season for the Phillies, going 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA in five starts as a rookie. But he has slipped a bit of late as opposing teams are picking up on his tendencies. Nola has posted a 5.06 ERA and 1.437 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Dickey's last five starts. Toronto is 14-3 in its last 17 vs. a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 18-41 in their last 59 games following a loss. Philadelphia is 25-53 in its last 78 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Toronto is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and 7-0 in its last seven visits to Philadelphia.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -160
I'm willing to lay the big juice with one of the hottest teams in baseball in the Toronto Blue Jays (65-54) up against one of the worst teams in the league in the Philadelphia Phillies (46-72). The Blue Jays are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall, while the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six.
R.A. Dickey has been one of the best starters in baseball since the All-Star Break. He is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA in six starts since. Dickey is 5-4 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 11 career starts against Philadelphia. One of those came on July 29 of this year as he pitched eight innings without allowing an earned run in an 8-2 Toronto victory.
Aaron Nola has held his own this season for the Phillies, going 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA in five starts as a rookie. But he has slipped a bit of late as opposing teams are picking up on his tendencies. Nola has posted a 5.06 ERA and 1.437 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Dickey's last five starts. Toronto is 14-3 in its last 17 vs. a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 18-41 in their last 59 games following a loss. Philadelphia is 25-53 in its last 78 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Toronto is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and 7-0 in its last seven visits to Philadelphia.
Joe Gavazzi
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners -137
Always dangerous to play on a pitcher after he has pitched a no-hitter! That’s exactly what Iwakuma did in his game against Baltimore last week. That extended his recent current run to 7 games in which he has gone 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA. That recent work is totally dichotomous to that of Gonzalez, who has faded badly after a hot start. In his 4 recent outings, Gonzalez is 0-3 with a 9.47 ERA. Must reduce the rating on this play just a bit, however, considering that after last night’s 4-3 Texas win vs. Seattle, the Rangers have now won 5 straight games and 8 straight on this field.
Goodfella
Twins TT Over 4
I'm going back to the same hitters venue for tonight's free forum play. Again a nice weather pattern for the baseball to carry this evening for us....However, for tonight I am firing on the TWINS OVER their team total of 4 runs. They love them some LH pitching and they have seen C.C. quite a bit over the years of course. I fully expect these Twins (who rake LH pitching) to get to C.C. eventually and I expect a couple balls to leave the yard off of him as well before he exits the game. I really like the number "4" here and I am all over the the MINNESOTA TWINS OVER 4 RUNS in this spot tonight. We'll just see what happens here, as always.
Nelly
Marlins at Brewers
Play: Marlins
Rookie pitchers will face off Tuesday in Milwaukee and while Adam Conley has marginal season numbers, both of his starts have been solid outings leading to Miami wins. Conley will face a Brewers team that has scored just 3.5 runs per game since the All Star break, being held to four or fewer runs in eight of the last 10 games. Milwaukee is 1-4 in the last five games vs. left-handed starters as well, failing to top three runs in any of those games. The Miami offense has been limited as well in the second half with a dearth of extra-base hits but the hit and scoring production has bested that of the Brewers since the break. Miami also has struck out just 6.3 times per game in that span for one of the lowest rates in baseball. In nine of the last 11 games Miami has posted at least eight hits and rookie Tyler Cravy has not offered great promise through five big league appearances. The Brewers are 0-4 in his starting efforts and after a strong outing in his MLB debut the numbers have deteriorated with 20 hits and 13 runs allowed over his last three starts spanning just over 15 innings. He has just 10 strikeouts along with seven walks and four home runs allowed in that span and while it is a small sample his Miller Park ERA is 7.36. Over the last 10 games Miami is batting .278 with 4.7 runs per game vs. right-handers while the Brewers are batting .172 with 2.0 runs per game vs. left-handers and with the bullpens basically a wash the superior offense is dogged in what looks like a more favorable matchup for Conley.
Royals at Reds
Play: Reds
Raisel Iglesias has proven he belongs in the Cincinnati rotation and his last three starts have been outstanding with just 10 hits and six runs allowed in nearly 19 innings of work. Iglesias has 61 strikeouts in 59 innings this season and he has even better numbers at home in Cincinnati despite the Ballpark being generally tough on pitchers. Edinson Volquez had his first success in the big leagues with Cincinnati with a breakout 2008 season. He has been basically a league average or worse pitcher since although his numbers last year and this year have been very respectable. Volquez allows a lot of hits and walks and he has benefitted greatly from a great bullpen behind him as he rarely goes deep into games and often leaves with runners on base. Volquez has much worse numbers on the road and Kansas City is 10-3 in his home starts but just 6-5 in his road starts. Despite the great difference in overall results for these teams the home record for the Reds is nearly identical to the road record for the Royals and losing the DH will hurt Kansas City substantially. The Royals are regarded as one of the top offensive teams in baseball but Kansas City has actually been out-hit since the All Star break and Kansas City is 2-6 in the last eight road games. Cincinnati has more hits per game than the Royals since the break by a wide margin and while the Reds are an inconsistent scoring group, the last two home stands have featured four of the best starting pitching teams in baseball and the numbers could rise moving forward. This is certainly an ‘against-the-grain’ play but there is a lot to like about the profile for Iglesias.