SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (68-52) at L.A. Dodgers (70-49)
Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73 ERA) is scheduled to return to the mound for the first time in 11 days when he leads the slumping Dodgers against the streaking Cardinals, who turn to rookie Mitchell Boggs (1-1, 3.76) in the middle game of a four-game series at Dodger Stadium.
Behind another stellar pitching performance by Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals outlasted Los Angeles 3-2 on Monday for their fifth straight win and their ninth in the last 10 games. St. Louis is on additional upticks of 4-0 on the road, 8-1 against the N.L. West, 6-1 against right-handed starters and 5-1 with Boggs on the mound, but it has lost seven of 10 as underdog.
The Dodgers have lost four of five and seven out of 10 overall, including five straight home defeats. Joe Torre’s troops are also in ruts of 2-6 against the N.L. Central, 4-11 in the second game of a series and 2-6 versus right-handed starters, but they have won 16 of 21 on Tuesday and they’re 60-26 in their last 80 games when favored at Dodger Stadium.
St. Louis continues to own this rivalry, having won 38 of the last 55 meetings overall, including nine of the last 12 in Los Angeles. This year, the Cards are 3-1 against L.A.
Boggs is coming off a 5-4 home loss to Cincinnati a week ago, allowing four runs on nine hits and four walks in six innings. It was the first time in the right-hander’s six starts this season that St. Louis lost. However, the Redbirds are 4-1 in Boggs’ last five road starts, including 2-0 this year, with Boggs posting a 4.38 ERA. The Georgia native has never faced the Dodgers.
Billingsley has been sidelined with a hamstring injury since Aug. 7, when he allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits in six innings, getting a no-decision in L.A.’s 9-5, 12-inning loss. The Dodgers’ ace is 2-2 with a 6.14 ERA in his last six starts, including a 10-0 loss in St. Louis in which he yielded six runs on four hits and six walks in 5 2/3 innings.
Billingsley is 7-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 home outings this year, but he’s 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against the Cardinals, with Los Angeles losing all four starts.
For the Cardinals, the “over” is on runs of 6-3-3 overall, 5-1-2 on the road and 4-1-1 on Tuesday. Likewise, Los Angeles is in the midst of “over” stretches of 9-4-1 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday, 6-0-1 with Billingsley on the bump, 7-3-2 when Billingsley pitches at home, 7-2-1 when he faces the N.L. Central and 5-1-2 when he starts on Tuesday. Conversely, the under has been the play in five of the last six meetings between these clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Seattle (61-57) at Detroit (62-55)
The Mariners send ace Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.72 ERA) to the mound as they return to Comerica Park for the second time in less than a month to battle the Tigers, who are set to counter with Rick Porcello (10-7, 4.34).
Seattle salvaged a four-game home series against the Yankees with Sunday’s 10-3 rout, as the team split its 10-game homestand, going just 2-4 in the last six. Since leaving Detroit with a pair of 2-1 victories on July 22 and 23, the Mariners are just 10-13 overall (3-4 on the road), and they’ve also lost 10 of their last 14 games on Tuesday. On the positive end, they’re on hot streaks of 21-7 as a favorite and 10-1 as a road chalk.
Detroit had a three-game winning streak snapped with Sunday’s 3-2, 10-inning home loss to Kansas City. Jim Leyland’s team continues to be very inconsistent, as it hasn’t won more than three in a row or lost more than three in a row since a seven-game winning streak in late June. The Tigers enter this contest with trends of 41-20 at Comerica, 18-5 at home against right-handed starters and 6-2 after a loss, but 29-65 as an underdog and 7-15 on Tuesday.
These clubs have split their six meetings this season, with the visitor winning four times. Prior to winning twice last month at Comerica Park, the Mariners had lost seven of eight in Motown.
Hernandez’s stellar season continued on Wednesday against the White Sox, as he pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out 10, but he failed to earn a decision as the Mariners eventually won 1-0 in 14 innings. Going back to May 24, the right-hander has notched 14 quality starts in his last 15 trips to the mound, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 12 of those 15 games.
With Hernandez on the bump, the Mariners are on a slew of positive runs, including 18-6 this season, 11-2 on the road this year (8-0 last eight), 7-2 against the A.L. Central, 9-1 as a favorite and 6-0 as a road favorite. In his 13 starts on the highway, King Felix is 8-1 with a 1.96 ERA, including a 2-1 win at Detroit on July 22. In fact, he’s won five straight starts against the Tigers (2-0 this year), posting a 1.80 in the last three.
Porcello is coming off a five-game suspension after hitting Boston’s Kevin Youkilis with a pitch on Aug. 11 that led to a brawl at Fenway Park. He was charged with one run on one hit in one inning in that game, which Detroit lost 7-5. In two previous starts, the right-hander gave up three total runs in 13 2/3 innings (2.03 ERA), with the Tigers winning 4-3 at Cleveland and 7-3 at home against Baltimore.
Detroit is 12-5 in Porcello’s last 17 outings, 4-1 in his last five at home and 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. West, but it has lost four of his last five in the underdog role. Porcello is 5-3 with a 4.92 ERA in 10 home games this season, and he’s faced the Mariners twice in 2009, allowing one run in seven innings of an 8-2 road win on April 19, then giving up five runs in five innings at home on July 21, though Detroit still prevailed 9-7.
With Hernandez pitching, the “under” is on runs of 10-4 overall, 35-16-1 on the highway, 14-3 as a road chalk and 4-0 against the A.L. Central. But as a team, the Mariners are on “over” streaks of 9-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 against right-handed starters, 6-2 against the A.L. Central and 5-2 on Tuesday.
Detroit carries “over” trends of 11-4 overall, 5-2 at home, 5-2 after an off day, 4-0-1 on Tuesday and 4-1 in series openers. Finally, these teams have hurdled the total in 10 of their last 13 clashes at Comerica Park, though the last two battles a month ago – both 2-1 Seattle wins – stayed way under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE and OVER
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's 9-5 loss and take advantage of Pittsburgh's 3-14 record in their last 17 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in the previous game. Milwaukee is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115).
Game 951-952: Arizona at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 14.258; Philadelphia (Martinez) 16.425
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-175); Under
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.054; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 13.262
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Over
Game 955-956: Colorado at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.044; Washington (Stammen) 15.760
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-160); Over
Game 957-958: San Francisco at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.340; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.735
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-240); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-240); Under
Game 959-960: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 16.343; NY Mets (Perez) 14.040
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Under
Game 961-962: Florida at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.519; Houston (Norris) 15.672
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Over
Game 963-964: Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 13.609; San Diego (Carrillo) 14.255
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Under
Game 965-966: St. Louis at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Boggs) 16.120; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.696
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+160); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.403; Detroit (Porcello) 14.914
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over
Game 969-970: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.479; Toronto (Romero) 14.575
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 14.121; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.169
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-220); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-220); Under
Game 973-974: LA Angels at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Bell) 15.996; Cleveland (Carmona) 16.344
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 13 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Over
Game 975-976: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 15.900; Texas (Feldman) 15.735
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Over
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.414; White Sox (Garcia) 15.518
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Under
Game 979-980: NY Yankees at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.844; Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.440
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-230); Under
WNBA
Phoenix at Chicago
The Mercury look to bounce back from their loss in San Antonio and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following a SU defeat. Phoenix is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1).
Game 651-652: Seattle at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 108.216; Detroit 113.520
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 5 1/2; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Over
Game 653-654: Phoenix at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.053; Chicago 112.999
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 177
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1); Over
Game 655-656: Washington at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.232; Los Angeles 112.919
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 138
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Under
Vernon Croy
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Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound Tuesday night and the Red Sox are 13-3 in Josh Beckett's (14-4, 3.10 ERA) last 16 road starts against a team with a losing record. Beckett has pitched solid over his last 6 starts with an ERA of just 1.80 and the Red Sox are 8-1 in Beckett's last 9 starts with 5 days rest. The Red Sox are 11-2 in their last 13 games when playing with a day off and they are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite. Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.70) struggled in his only two starts against the Red Sox with an ERA of 9.72 and I look for the Red Sox to hit him hard against Tuesday night. The Blue Jays are just 1-6 in their last 7 games after a day off and they are just 8-21 in their last 29 games when playing a team with a winning record. Take the Boston Red Sox Tuesday Night.
Frank Jordan
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Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros
Play: Florida Marlins
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Last time out Ricky Nolasco pitched was against Houston and he got shelled giving up 10 runs and didn't make it out of the fourth inning. Bud Norris for Houston also pitched that and although he gave up 5 runs he pitched well enough to get the win. This time around look for Nolasco to get the better of Norris as it is Bud Norris pitching for Houston and not Chuck Norris. Play Florida
ALEX SMART
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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Boston Red Sox
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Josh Beckett(14-4, 3.10 ERA) the Boston Red Sox starting pitcher today was MLBs first 14-game winner this season after his last outing. He gave just two runs on three hits in an 8-2 BoSox victory over the Tigers in front of the home town fans in Fenway Park. Boston's most consistent hurler this season has limited opponents to three runs or fewer in 15 of his last 18 starts, which has converted into a spectacular 12-2 record along with a 2.17 ERA . Everytime the Spring , Texas native , takes to the hill the Red sox are almost always a viable bet. Meanwhile, Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.70 ERA) the Blue Jays starting pitcher has struggled against AL east teams as is evident by 5.06 ERA in eight starts this season. Not a good omen considering he goes against a Boston side has smacked him around (9.72 ERA). Final notes & Key Trends: The Red Sox are 14-1 as -125 to -150 road favorites this season.....Play on the Red Sox
Karl Garrett
Atlanta at NY METS
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I don't know what in the world I was thinking backing the Mets as my comp play last night, as this team is so offensively-challenged it is even funny anymore.
That being the case, the G-Man will go UNDER the posted total in Tuesday's Braves-Mets contest.
Atlanta played a make-up game OVER yesterday afternoon, but have held UNDER the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games.
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New York meanwhile, has been LOW in 5 of their last 9 games. At home this season, the Mets have played UNDER to a 30-26-2 clip.
Braves starter Derek Lowe has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 7 starts, and the way the Mets are swinging the bats these days, I would be very surprised if New York reached the 3 run mark tonight.
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Mets starter Oliver Perez has been pitching decent ball of late, as his last 16-plus frames of work have seen just 4 earned runs score.
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Have to look for the pitching to dominate the hitting this Tuesday night, and for the Braves and the Mets to stay UNDER the posted price.
1♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
St. Louis (+155) at LA DODGERS
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Brutal beat with the Panthers last night in NFL preseason action. Still, I’m on a 26-15 roll with my free selections, and I’ll get back on track Tuesday by taking the red-hot Cardinals plus the big price against the freefalling Dodgers.
After last night’s 3-2 win over L.A., St. Louis has now won five in a row and nine of its last 10, including four straight wins on the road. The Cardinals are also 4-1 against the Dodgers this year, 38-17 in the last 55 meetings and 9-3 in their last 12 games at Dodger Stadium.
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Speaking of Los Angeles, its dream season is starting to fade away. It is 14-17 since the All-Star break, losing seven of its last 10 games overall, including four straight at home to playoff contenders (three to Atlanta, one to St. Louis). In fact, since starting the season with 13 consecutive home wins, the Dodgers are a dead-even team in their ballpark – and often as a big favorite.
Now, I’ll grant that Los Angeles has the starting pitching edge in this game (hence this big price), but it’s not THAT great of an advance. Dodgers ace Chad Billingsley was passed over in his last scheduled start because of a hamstring issue (and you know those things can flare up at any moment). And even before he got hurt, he wasn’t pitching that well, posting a 6.14 ERA in his last four starts, including a 10-0 loss at St. Louis. That was his fourth career start against the Redbirds, and L.A. lost all four (with Billingsley failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of those contests).
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As for St. Louis rookie starter Mitchell Boggs, the only thing I care about is he’s giving his team an opportunity to win when he pitches. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his six starts this year, the only loss being a one-run setback to the Reds a week ago. Bottom line: To be getting this kind of a underdog value with a team as hot as the Cardinals against a slumping opponent that they flat-out own, well, I’m jumping all over it!
4♦ ST. LOUIS
Dominic Fazzini
Baltimore at TAMPA BAY
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The Cardinals won Monday, but failed to cover the run line. Despite that, however, I'm still 7-2 over my last nine complimentary selections! Time to get back to winning today!
Rays starter David Price (5-5, 5.13 ERA) has been wildly inconsistent this season. But there actually has been a pattern to his inconsistency. The left-hander is 0-4 with an 8.07 ERA in seven road starts, and 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA in seven home outings.
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Price has made one career start against the Orioles, allowing two runs (one earned) and four hits in 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore on Sept. 22.
Rookie Jason Berken (2-10, 6.63) will take the mound for the Orioles, who are 8-22 since the All-Star break. The right-hander gave up four runs (three earned) and eight hits in five innings Wednesday against Oakland.
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Berken has dropped 10 of his last 11 decisions, and Baltimore is 3-12 in his 15 starts. The rookie is 1-4 with an 8.48 ERA in six road starts, and he is 1-2 with an 8.76 ERA in three outings this month.
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Tampa Bay is 8-1 in its last nine home games against Baltimore. It should have no problem adding another victory to that total today. Take the Rays on the run line.
3♦ TAMPA BAY -1.5
Tony Weston
Kiss your freakin’ sister. The Dolphins can’t do enough to escape the dreaded Push and we end up staying in neutral.
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That’s fine because I’m cashing in tonight with some baseball action as I’m taking the Angels on the road at the Cleveland Indians.
Anaheim comes into this game on a roll, having won 6 of its last 7 games and is 13-5 its last 18 games overall.
The Indians, on the other hand, come into this game 9-16 their last 25 games at home. Also, Cleveland has won just 2 of its last 5 games with scheduled starter Fausto Carmona on the mound.
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The Indians will drop another one at home tonight as the Angels continue their winning ways. Take Anaheim on the road in this one.
3♦ ANGELS
Vernon Croy
MLB | Aug 18
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox
1* Take the Boston Red Sox on the Moneyline, The Red Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound Tuesday night and the Red Sox are 13-3 in Josh Beckett's (14-4, 3.10 ERA) last 16 road starts against a team with a losing record. Beckett has pitched solid over his last 6 starts with an ERA of just 1.80 and the Red Sox are 8-1 in Beckett's last 9 starts with 5 days rest. The Red Sox are 11-2 in their last 13 games when playing with a day off and they are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite. Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.70) struggled in his only two starts against the Red Sox with an ERA of 9.72 and I look for the Red Sox to hit him hard against Tuesday night. The Blue Jays are just 1-6 in their last 7 games after a day off and they are just 8-21 in their last 29 games when playing a team with a winning record. Take the Boston Red Sox as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday Night.
Gamblers Data
TUESDAY NYY -1.5 -135
Sports Gambling Hotline
Monday winner on the Angels to make it an 18-8-1 comp play run the last 27 days.
Tuesday night, the Marlins and Astros have at it once again, this time at Minute Maid Park. Just last week, Florida took 3 of 4 from Houston, and all 4 of the games featured plenty of offense.
It will be Ricky Nolasco, and Bud Norris matching pitches for the second time in as many starts, and while Norris "outdueled" Nolasco for the win just 5 short days ago, neither hurler was particularly impressive, as Nolasco allowed a whopping 10 runs in his 3 innings of work, while Norris allowed 4 run in 5 innings, but qualified for the "W".
Florida is on a 9-2 run their last 11, and they are thinking October baseball these days in South Florida. The same cannot be said for the sinking 'Stros who just snapped a 3 game slide, and are only 3-11 their last 14 Tuesday night affairs.
Nolasco is certainly not the same hurler he was when he made his ML splash last season, but we have a feeling that Norris, and his 3-0 season mark is going to take the hit tonight against the streaking Marlins.
Play on Florida.
3♦ FLORIDA
Marc Lawrence
Today’s Free Pick
GAME: Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Aug 18, 2009 7:05PM
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Pittsburgh w/Ohlendorf vs Parra
Note: The Pirates and Brewers battle in Game Two of this three game series when Ross Ohlendorf meets Manny Parra in Pittsburgh this evening. Parra takes the mound knowing he is 5-10 in his last 15 road team starts, with an 8.58 ERA in his last 6 road efforts. In his last start, Parra lasted 5 2/3 innings while surrendering 13 hits and allowing 6 runs, yet still managed to pick up the win. With Ohlendorf 9-2 in his last 11 home team starts, look for the Pirates to get the best of the Brewers here tonight.
We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh with Ohlendorf versusu Parra.
Sam Martin
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Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians
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We cashed with the LA Angels last night with our Money Maker Play, and we’ll back them again on Tuesday night against the Cleveland Indians. The Angels are red hot, winning six of their last seven and hitting the cover off the ball, scoring 8, 17, 5, 6, 10, 6, and 8 runs in that stretch. Cleveland is hitting only .250 at home this year, and starter Fausto Carmona owns a 0-4 home record. Angels stay hot. Play on LA Angels. Good luck -
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Play on: LA Angels
Lee Kostroski
GAME: Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers Aug 18, 2009 7:05PM
PICK: Seattle Mariners -135
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON Seattle (Hernandez) minus on the money line vs. Detroit (Porcello), Tuesday at 7:05 PM EST
Detroit has been a strong home team but Seattle won two of three at Comerica earlier this season. Felix Hernandez is 2-0 against Detroit this season and 4-0 in his last four outings against the Tigers. Seattle is 18-6 behind Hernandez this season yet he is still not valued like one of the AL’s truly elite pitchers. Hernandez has actually pitched significantly better away from home featuring incredible numbers with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP en route to Seattle going 11-2 in his road starts.
While Detroit is in playoff position, the Mariners would not be far behind the Tigers if they were competing for the same spot. Seattle has been the better hitting team and the superior statistical pitching team this season. The Mariners are also 21-7 in the last 28 games as favorites. Over the last ten games both teams are 5-5 but Seattle has posted far better pitching numbers and superior offensive numbers against right-handed pitching.
Detroit’s bullpen is a continuing problem that has not gone away, featuring a 5.24 ERA in the last ten games. Rookie star pitcher Rick Porcello has had a fine season but he has clearly worn down with the serious workload faced for the first time. He will be well rested for this outing after he was ejected and suspended after just one inning in his last outing. Porcello’s ERA is over a run higher at home and Detroit is just 4-4 in his last eight starts, and in four of those starts he allowed at least five runs.
Best of Luck, Lee.