Totals4U
LA Angels/Cleveland over 10 1/2
BIG AL
Diamondbacks at Phillies
Pedro Martinez will make his second start since joining the Philadelphia rotation, and the result will be the Diamondbacks and Phillies staying below the number.
Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies staying under the total in the City of Brotherly Love.
Phillies righthander Pedro Martinez had his first start in over 10 months on August 12 against the Cubs and although Martinez surrendered three earned runs on seven hits in just five innings, the veteran three-time Cy Young award winner proclaimed the outing a success and says he's ready to come back tonight and pitch even better.
It's hard to believe that this is Martinez's 18th season in the major leagues but despite the miles on his arm, the Phillies obviously think he still has enough in the tank and they are willing to bump another veteran, Jamie Moyer, from their rotation and give Martinez a shot.
Compared to Martinez, D-Backs veteran Jon Garland is practically a rookie with only 10 years of major league service. But unlike Martinez, Garland is not a hard thrower and he historically has some of the lowest strikeout totals of any full-time starter. Despite the lack of overpowering stuff, Garland usually finds a way to throw quality innings and the righthander now has quality starts in eight of his last nine outings going back to the beginning of July.
These two teams played a three-game series back in July and all three of those games went under the total. The Under is 5-1 in the last six Phillies games. Take the Under.
Pick: Diamondbacks-Phillies Under 10½
Tom Freese
Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Seattle is 18-6 in the last 24 starts made by Felix Hernandez and they are 21-7 their last 28 games as favorites. The Mariners are 7-3 their last 10 games vs. righty starters and they are 5-0 with Felix Hernandez vs. the Tigers. Detroit is 29-65 their last 94 games as underdogs and they are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. winning teams. The Tigers are 7-15 on Tuesday and they are 1-4 with Rick Porcello on the mound as an underdog. PLAY ON SEATTLE -
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
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Josh Beckett hasn’t had the best of luck against division rival Toronto as he has a 3-7 TSR in his career with an ERA of just under six. But he has pitched well of late allowing only two runs in his past three starts. His counterpart Ricky Romero has two career starts against the Red Sox, but hasn’t got out of the fifth inning in either start. The Red Sox are 11-2 when playing with a day of rest and 14-1 as a road favorite of $1.25 to $1.50. Go with the Sox.
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Play on: Boston Red Sox
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -1.5 -134
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Bailey and Lincecum faced off on August 7th with the Reds getting the win in San Fran. The Giants let that game slip away, blowing 3 different 2-run leads. I really believe the Giants will have their revenge behind their ace and against one of the worst starters in baseball here. Bailey is 3-15 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.4 to 5.9. He is also 1-9 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.4 to 6.6. The Reds are 2-11 in their last 13 home games and 0-6 in Bailey's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Lincecum is 6-1 with a 1.53 ERA in his last 10 starts and I expect him to shut down the Reds while the Giants give him enough run support against Bailey and his 7.48 ERA. Take the Giants on the run line.
ATS Consultants
Seattle Mariners -120 over Detroit Tigers
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Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.72) has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year, and he’ll need to keep his nice season going if the Mariners are to stay in playoff contention. They’re currently 6 games back in the Wild Card Race, and while it doesn’t seem likely, they still have an outside shot. Hernandez has finally put it all together and should remain the ace of this rotation for years to come.
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Rookie Rick Porcello (10-7, 4.34) has been one of the favorites for the Rookie of the Year award for most of the season, but has seemed to “hit the rookie wall” of late. He’s 2-1 with a 5.04 ERA in his last 5 starts. Detroit is leading the American League Central by 2 games over the White Sox and is in for a fight the rest of the way. Their pitching staff is their clear strength, and they’ll need Porcello to find that magic again these next six weeks if they want to make the playoffs.
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Baltimore Orioles/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 10
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A couple of rookies take the mound tonight at “The Trop” as Jason Berken and the Orioles take on David Price and the Rays. both pitchers have struggled while each team has very strong offensive clubs. Looks like an over from here.
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Berken (2-10, 6.63) somehow remains in the Orioles rotation, but as soon as fellow rookie Brad Bergesen returns from a leg injury, Berken will be back in the bullpen. For now, we can just enjoy betting against him or betting the over in his starts. He’s been awful all year, but particularly worse in his last 5 starts, as he’s 1-3 with a 7.03 ERA. He’s allowed 33 hits in 24 innings including 5 home runs.
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Price (5-5, 5.13) has been somewhat disappointing in his first full season, but the Rays plan on sticking with him as his upsde is still very high. Tampa Bay will just have to deal with his occasional wildness in hopes that he’ll put it all together soon. Price is 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in his last 5 starts. He’s allowed 36 hits in his last 28 innings, with 6 home runs. Considering both teams lineups coupled with two struggling pitchers, the over should be an easy play tonight.
Ben Burns
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: New York Yankees
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While this isn't quite the largest favorite on the board (TB currently is higher priced) it's arguably the biggest mismatch. Sabathia goes for the Yankees and he's 3-0 with an outstanding 2.38 ERA and 0.838 WHIP over his last three starts. The Yankees won those games by a combined score of 24-6, each victory coming by at least three runs. Conversely, Mazzaro has an awful 7.05 ERA and 2.218 WHIP. For the season, he's just 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.823 WHIP in five home starts.
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These pitchers faced each other at NY about a month ago. Sabathia was solid. Mazzaro was not. The Yankees won by a score of 6-3. Including that result, the Yankees are 47-30 (+3.6) vs. right-handers while the A's are 16-23 (-3.5) vs. southpaws. They're hitting just .243 and averaging only 4.3 runs in those games.
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While the price is too expensive to qualify as one of my 'guaranteed' selections, note that the Yankees are a profitable 15-6 (+4) as road favorites of -175 or greater, over the past few seasons. Consider laying the wood.
John Ryan
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Giants as they take on the Reds set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 66-5 for 93% winners making 54.8 units since 2003. Play against all dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 that is a cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This system is a perfect 8-0 this season. Lincecum is a strong 16-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. SF is a solid 28-15 (+14.9 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games this season. Reds in a terrible role noting they are just 7-20 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in home games after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits over the last 3 seasons. Reds starter is a horrid 1-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons; 3-15 (-11.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. Lincecum is certainly qualified for the Cy Young and another strong performance here against an inferior team is a absolute must. He has a 12-3 record posting an amazing 2.19 ERA and a 1.021 WHIP spnnaing 172.3 innings and has allowed just 6 home runs while recording 205 strikeouts. That is the most amazing stat in his resume ? the K?s to home runs allowed ratio. Over his last 3 starts he has been even better posting a 1.52 ERA and a 0.845 WHIP yielding just 3 BB while recording 22 K?s spanning 23.7 innings pitched. Reds starter Bailey, in all due respect, is struggling mightily with a 7.48 season ERA spanning 10 starts and has recorded just 29 strikeouts in 49.3 innings pitched. His last 3 starts have been terrible and he did not record a single out in his last start. Even manager Dusty Baker is in a bad spot noting he is 7-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game as the manager of the Reds. Take the Giants.
STEPHEN NOVER
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
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When handicapping the Milwaukee Brewers and their woeful pitching staff, I can't help thinking of a lyric from an early 1970s song by Stealers Wheel titled "Stuck in the middle with you."
The lyric goes "Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right."
The Brewers were favored last night with Carlos Villanueva on the mound. The Pirates scored nine runs in dispatching him and the Brewers' dreadful bullpen.
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Now Milwaukee is a slight road favorite again with Manny Parra on the hill.
"Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right."
Parra doesn't deserve to be a road favorite either. His road ERA is 7.18. His WHIP for the season is 1.84. Opponents are batting .310 against him.
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Why is Milwaukee favored? The Pirates have a winning home mark. The Brewers have a losing road record.
The Brewers are 5-15 in their last 20 away games when facing a team with a winning home record. Their pitching is just too horrible. Milwaukee has surrendered a league-high 159 homers. Brewer pitchers have given up five or more runs in 25 of their last 41 games. Their bullpen is totally unreliable aside from ancient closer Trevor Hoffman.
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When a team actually misses Jeff Suppan, then you know how bad their pitching really is.
The Pirates are a young, loose bunch. Their hitting confidence is up after last night. The Brewers, by contrast, are seven games out of a wildcard spot and playing tight. The veterans are on notice with J.J. Hardy demoted and Bill Hall sent packing.
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The Brewers face Russ Ohlendorf, who is coming on. He's 3-1 with a 3.07 ERA in his last five starts. Ohlendorf enjoys pitching at PNC Park where he is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts. The Pirates have won six of Ohlendorf's last seven home starts.
This is a one-unit play for me.
LARRY NESS
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Florida Marlins @ Houston Astros Aug
PICK: Florida Marlins
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Ricky Nolasco (8-8, 5.44 ERA) gets the start fro Florida in its series opener at Houston tonight and will face rookie Bud Norris (3-0, 3.00 ERA). These same pitchers squared off last Wednesday in Houston, when the Astros staked Norris to a 5-0 first-inning lead and went on to win 14-6. Despite allowing five ERs and 10- hits over five innings, Norris won his third straight start since making his MLB debut in relief on July 29. As for Nolasco, he went 11-11 with a 4.82 ERA as a rookie in 2006 (35 appearances / 22 starts) before losing almost all of the 2007 season to an injury. He returned to health last year (34 appearances / 32 starts), going 15-8 witha 3.52 ERA (Marlins were 21-11 and plus-$1,394 in his starts). Nolasco got off to an awful start in 2009, going 2-5 with a 9.07 ERA in his first nine starts. However, prior to last Wednesday's "horror show" (3.1 IP / 8 hits / 10 ERs), he had allowed two ERs or less in 10 of his previous 12 starts (he was 6-2 and the Marlins 9-3). Expect Nolasco to bounce back here witha good effort and for those Florida bats to back him. After all, the Marlins have reached double digits in hits in 13 consecutive games, tying the longest such streak since the Red Sox did it in 1999. Florida is batting .332 and averaging 6.8 RPG runs during its 13-game streak and in this quick "pitching re-hook," I'm going with Nolasco over the rookie Norris. Take Florida.
LT Profits
St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a mini-slide right now, but they have a huge pitching advantage here with Chad Billingsley facing Mitchell Boggs of the St. Louis Cardinals, and we look for the Dodgers to respond with a big win.
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The Dodgers have lost four of five after getting shut down by Chris Carpenter last night, but they face no such foe tonight. Besides, Billingsley has done a very good job of playing the stopper role all year, going 11-6 with a 3.73 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 143 strikeouts in 149.2 innings. Most importantly, Billingsley has held his fine form all season, as he has allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts including allowing a total of one earned run his last two outings.
Meanwhile, Boggs has yet to post a Quality Start in six starts this year, and his 3.78 ERA is very deceiving, as he had a horrendous 1.89 WHIP, allowing 43 hits and 20 walks in 33.3 innings. He has been flirting with danger allowing nearly two baserunners per hitting, making it a virtual certainty that his ERA is ready to skyrocket very soon. Furthermore, he is actually getting worse, with an atrocious 2.28 WHIP in his last three starts!
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Look for the Dodgers to make Boggs pay tonight, putting up more than enough runs in support of Billingsley for the Run Line victory at a decent price.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5
MTi Sports
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St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers are 7-0 as a favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a one run loss and the Cardinals are 0-6 on the road after a one run win. Consider LA.
Wunderdog
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LAA Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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The Indians have waited a longtime for Fausto Carmona to pitch the way he did in '07, when he won 19 games. He has battled through injuries, rebuilding arm strength, and appears to be back where he was. Carmona has pitched to a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, not allowing more than two runs in any of the three games. It is the first time he has done so since last May. The Angels are down to Trevor Bell for this one, and he did not impress in his debut vs. the Rays where he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings and served up two long balls. The Indians have relished the role of a favorite where they are 4-0 in their last four, and against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Indians have cashed six of their last seven.
Freddy Wills
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Take Rays -1.5
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Off another POD winner and a push in the NFL moving us to 3-0-1 in NFL POD's this pre-season and 3-1 in our last 4 MLB POD's looking like we are coming out of our mini slump.
Here today we go with the Rays in what promises to be a complete pitching mismatch with Jason Berken vs. David Price. Neither one of these pitchers will go deep in the game, but when they leave the game they will be leaving under completely different circumstances.
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Berken will face the Rays for the first time and that's too bad as he has a 8.76 ERA in his last three starts and a 8.48 ERA on the road this year. Orioles are 2-12 in Berken's last 14 overall starts and 1-10 when he is an underdog. The last time he completed 7 innings was May 31st. Which almost guarantees the Rays will see the O's bullpen for 2+ innings that has gone down hill since losing their closer to the Dodgers. They have a 6.10 ERA last 10, 7.40 Last 5, and the bullpen available for Tuesday has a 8.15 ERA in their last 3 games. Berken has not been impressive with a 41:29 K:BB ratio which really works to the Rays strengths and weaknesses as they are #3 in taking walks which should push Berken out of this game even earlier and they are #4 in K's which is good since Berken is not a strikeout guy.
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David Price going for the Rays has been great at home with a 2.72 ERA and a fabulous 38:18 K:BB ratio. He will go up against the O's who are #18 in HR and #24 in BB which does not pan out well against Price. Orioles have just been awful against LHP on the road this year with a .222 average and are scoring only 2.80 runs per 9 innings. In their last five they are batting .125 and scoring 1.17 runs per 9.
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Why it's not a premium play? Plain and simple the Rays have not seen Berken before. What does that mean? It means that he may be able to work quickly through the lineup the first time. When playing run lines I like to know that a team can really beat up on a hitter the first time around.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -147
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The Red Sox have had a day to think about back-to-back losses in Texas to fall out of the wild card lead. I like them to bounce back strong tonight behind their ace and against a youngster they have crushed. A day off always seems to do the Sox good as they are 40-14 in their last 54 games following an off day. In fact, they are 11-2 when playing with a day off this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 6.2 to 2.9. The Red Sox are also a blistering 8-1 in Beckett's last 9 starts with 5 days of rest. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 games following an off day and 0-4 in Romero's last 4 starts vs. the American League East. Plus, Romero is 0-2 lifetime when starting against Boston with an ERA of 9.72 and a WHIP of 2.521. Look for the Sox to bounce back behind Beckett in a big way here.