Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday August, 21

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers and Giants meet in Game Two of this crucial three-game divisional showdown at Dodgers Stadium Tuesday night where Joe Blanton matches serves with tiny Tim Lincecum. Blanton enters the contest with wins in six of his last seven team starts during August while compiling a 9-6 log in his fifteen team starts at night this season. On the flip side, Lincecum has dropped his his last three tam starts in this park while going 5-11 at night and 3-8 in division scrapes this season. With Linecum's road ERA (7.50) more than 4.5 runs worse than his home ERA (3.92) this campaign, we'll say at home with L. A. here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Francisco Giants

With their victory last night, the Giants moved a half-game in front of the Dodgers in the National League West as Madison Bumgarner outpitched Clayton Kershaw in a great pitching duel. San Francisco is 3-1 on the current roadtrip and is now three games over .500 on the road for the season. The Giants have come back strong after recent poor offensive performances as they are 20-6 in their last 26 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Tim Lincecum has had a very poor season overall but he has been pitching much better as he has a 3.30 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break after posting a 6.42 ERA in 18 starts prior to that. He has been poor on the road but his last two road outings have been quality starts and in 17 career games against the Dodgers he has a 2.87 ERA. Los Angeles was coming off a successful roadtrip but the offense has struggled of late, hitting just .206 over its last five games. They have been great at home this season but they are just 6-17 in their last 23 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Joe Blanton posted a quality start in his first game with Los Angeles but his last two starts have been the complete opposite as he has allowed 12 runs in just 9.1 innings. Granted, both of those games were on the road but the Giants are hitting .283 in their last 10 games against right-handed pitching.

Frank Jordan

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Francisco Giants

These two teams played a classic game last night of 2-1 with both starting pitchers dominate striking out 10+ without walking a batter. Bumgarner out dueled Kershaw as the Giants retook first place in the NL West by a half game. Tonight San Francisco has Lincecum on the mound which in the past would have them in the driver seat to win again, but this year he has been very shaky. Lincecum is 6-13 on the season with an era over 5, however against the Dodgers he has done ok with a 1-1 record in two starts and just a three era. The Dodgers counter with Blanton who is 8-11 on the year with an era just under 5, but since getting moved to LA from Philadelphia the Dodgers are 1-2 in his starts. Look for the Giants to get a good start from Lincecum and the bats to get enough support off of Blanton. Play San Francisco

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels fit a nice system here tonight that plays on road favorites off a home favored loss, if they scored 4 or less runs, and are taking on an opponent off a road dog loss. These road warriors have won 7 of the last 8 times. The Angels have Santana on the mound and though he's never been great on the road, he has pitched well here in Boston going 31 innings allowing just 7 earned runs the past few seasons. His last 3 road starts have been much better than earlier in the season. Cook for Boston has been inconsistent for the most part and Boston has struggled to sustain any type of run this year. Look for The Angels to take game one.

Bryan Power

Minnesota vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland

There are several high lines on Tuesday's MLB card, so I'm going with a more moderately priced favorite as today's free selecton is on the A's. Oakland took a surprising loss last night, falling here at home to Minnesota 7-2, snapping a four-game win streak in the process. I think they stand an excellent chance at bouncing back Tuesday in the 2012 debut of lefty Brett Anderson. Like they did against Cleveland over the weekend, this is a series that the Athletics have to clean up in as they trail Baltimore by one-half game in the American League Wild Card race.

Anderson is coming off Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched at the big league level in 14 months. Electing to bring him back against a Twins team that had lost 9 of 10 prior to yesterday is probably a good idea. It wasn't that long ago (last month) that Oakland swept Minnesota at Target Field, outscoring them 24-10 in three games. Fact is that Minnesota is an inferior ballclub compared to Oakland and it's another lost season for them.

Cole De Vries has not pitched well for the Twins lately, which doesn't help their cause either. Over his last three starts, his ERA is 9.49. He has not won a decision since June 30th, just to put things in perspective. Oakland rolls to victory here.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Angels -103

At 62-60 on the year, the Los Angeles Angels know that now is the time they need to make their move if they want to be going to the postseason. Boston (59-63) has appeared to already pack it in.

Ervin Santana has stepped it up in August. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in three starts this month. He has given up just 14 hits and three walks over 19 1/3 innings.

Aaron Cook has really struggled at home this year. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.316 WHIP over six home starts in 2012. He's also 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his last three outings.

The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Santana's last 4 starts. The Red Sox are 5-16 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series. Boston is 0-4 in Cook's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

Jim Feist

Braves vs Nationals
Pick: Under

Washington is a big park, great for pitchers. Atlanta comes to town with starter Paul Maholm, who has a 3.39 ERA for the season and a 1.57 ERA his last three starts. The Braves are on a 20-6 run under the total and the under is 14-3 in the Braves last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. Washington has ace Stephen Strasburg (14-5. 2.91 ERA) going with a sizzling 3-0 record and a 1.50 ERA his last three starts. And the under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Washington. Play the Braves/Nationals under the total.

Dave Cokin

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals
Pick: Atlanta Braves

No cinch trying to beat the awesome Stephen Strasburg. But with Paul Maholm as hot as he is right now, the Nationals are too much chalk tonight. I'll back the Braves at serious plus money.

GoodFella

Yankees / White Sox Over 9

Both of these starters simply put way too many runners on base for me, to consider anything other than a OVER here (ballpark plays very live this time of year as well) yes no "wind" blowing out, but we do temps in the low 70's with 65% humidity. Nova has been torched in 3 of his L/4 starts, the only start he didn't get lit up was vs the anemic Blue Jays offense (who are throwing out a lineup with half AAA players). WSox stater, Liriano has not been sharp his L/2 starts, and he already has got knocked around by these Yankees once this season, and add on that he simply has not performed well at his new ballpark U.S. Cellular Park, and I expect the NYY who hit LH pitching very well, to get to him by the 3rd time through the order at the very least, and I simply see way too many ways, that "both teams get 4 runs" and if/when that happens, we push this play at worse. I fully expect both teams to get to that "4 runs" and I am on the OVER here tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta +149 over WASHINGTON

Anytime we are offered a tag like this with the Braves, it deserves consideration. Atlanta is too savvy and mature to be intimidated by Stephen Strasburg’s presence. In fact, current Braves hitters have 31 hits in 99 career AB’s vs. Strasburg for a BA of .313. Strasburg's last two starts in the series have both been defeats for Washington in which he posted a combined 7.56 ERA.

Paul Maholm gave up a run and five hits in seven innings in Wednesday's 6-1 win over San Diego. He improved to 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA in three starts since being acquired from the Cubs on July 30. Maholm is 7-1 with a 1.19 ERA in his last eight starts overall and with an elite groundball/fly-ball split of 51%/21%, he certainly gives the Braves a great chance to win every time he takes the mound.

Strasburg obviously provides the Nationals with an opportunity to win also but a shaky history vs. this opponent, combined with this sweet price makes this doggie very appealing indeed.

Colorado +146 over N.Y. METS

Only the Houston Astros have less wins than the Rockies. This has been a season to forget for Colorado but unlike other teams that are out of it, the young Rockies have not quit. They came in here last night and beat R.A. Dickey. The Mets are 19 games out of first and 10 games out in the Wild Card race. Their season is basically done after a promising start and they’re starting to play that way. Facing the 47-71 Rockies doesn’t exactly get their juices flowing either.

The Rockies will welcome back Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin wasn't very good at the end of last year and certainly not in April of this year. But there's reason to believe that he wasn't healthy during his 3-13, 5.14 ERA streak over his last 21 starts. "It means a lot to get back out there. My arm feels strong again," Chacin said. "I want to contribute. It's been really hard watching what has happened to the rotation." Chacin has shown some wicked stuff as he produced a 3.62 ERA in 2011, pitching at a difficult venue while winning 11 games. He’s ready and raring to go.

Chris Young should never be in this price range pitching for the uninspired Mets. Young has a dismal xERA over the past month at 7.50. He has 46 K’s in 74 innings, not to mention a very troubling 15%/64% groundball/fly-ball split over his last five starts. To make matters worse, Young will be followed by New York’s shaky bullpen. As risky favorites go, you won’t find many more than Young, the Mets and the Mets’ pen.

L.A. Angels +102 over BOSTON

After being swept at home by the Rays last weekend and allowing 37 runs in the process, the Angels popularity is lower than it’s been in weeks and that presents an opportunity here.

Aaron Cook should rarely, if ever, be favored over another MLB team. This is a guy that has seven strikeouts in 57 innings for the worst strikeout ratio in the majors. With his control eroding, Cook’s once middling skills and xERA are now completely unacceptable. It may also surprise you to learn that the Angels offense owns the league’s best OPS since the all-star break at .819 and that number can go nowhere but up after facing this fledgling foe.

Earvin Santana has had three decent outings in his past four starts. He’s been tough to hit during those assignments, allowing only 18 hits in 24.1 IP while producing a 2.99 xERA over that span. Santana is having a rough season but a 47%/19%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile says the efficiency is still present. Santana certainly offers more value than the sinking Red Sox, especially with Cook on the mound.

Scott Spreitzer

LA Angels +103

We have a pair of struggling and disappointing teams, but the Halos have the talent to get right back in the thick of things - at least as far as the wildcard race is concerned. I like the attitude of the team despite the poor homestand, which included a four-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. But Ervin Santana is regaining his confidence and the Angels have won each of his last four starts. By the way - that's a better record than the Angels have with anyone else on the mound during the same time span (including Weaver). Santana has enjoyed his last four starts at Fenway, posting a 2.16 ERA & 0.88 WHIP. He'll face a Boston lineup that doesn't expect David Ortiz to return to the lineup just yet. Ortiz is recovering from a right achilles injury. While Santana is getting somewhat back on track, Aaron Cook has been tagged for a 6.43 ERA & 1.52 WHIP in his last four starts. The Sox have won just 1 of his last 5 starts. LAA heads into this one on a 7-0 run on the road against teams with a losing record. The Halos had a much needed day off on Monday and now get just what the doctor ordered in Fenway. I'm backing the Angels on Tuesday.

JR O'Donnell

NY Yankees -110

72-49 NY Yankees -110 and I Nova grab the top shelf afr play today the 21st..... Nova is 2-0 and rolling with a 1.33 ERA in 4 trips to the bump vs the Sox..... The Yankees lost last night and feel the pressure of the Red Hot & "HARD CHARGING" Tampa Bay Rays... Power rated @ NY Yankees - 131.... Yankees punch in @ 26-17 vs lefties... 27 and 17 after tonight's W

Bryan Leonard

Yankees / White Sox Over 9

The Yankees continue to play well despite injuries to Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia. On Tuesday, they continue their series with the Chicago White Sox by sending Ivan Nova to the mound. Nova has pitched better away from home, but, Chicago is a bad park for a pitcher with the stats that Nova has this season. His HR/FB% is 15.2%, as his groundball rate has dropped this season. Nova is allowing 1.37 HR per nine innings and opposing hitters are batting .288 against him. In seven starts since the All-Star break, Nova has a 7.02 ERA. That's the opposite of last season, which indicates that the workload of the last two seasons may be catching up with Nova.

Francisco Liriano is still trying to find it since being traded to Chicago. In four starts with the ChiSox, Liriano has a 4.79 ERA. In his career, the former Twin has a 6.04 ERA in 13 appearances, 10 starts, at US Cellular Field. It's a park that doesn't play well to Liriano, who walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of fly balls that will carry in Chicago. Entering play on Monday, the White Sox had averaged 5.3 runs per game in their home park. The Yankees lead the AL in home runs with 189 and the White Sox are third with 157.

Rich Sports

Play Detroit minus the run line versus Toronto. The Tigers (64-57) will start Scherzer (12-6, 4.41 ERA) who owns a lower ERA against the Blue Jays, than against any other opponent he has faced more than one time. He is 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four career outings against them with 24 strikeouts and six walks over 27 innings. Scherzer is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA in his last nine outings. The Blue Jays (56-65) will counter with Romero (8-10, 5.47) who gave up six runs in six-plus innings during a 9-5 home loss to the White Sox to drop to 0-9 with a 7.45 ERA in his last 10 starts. The left-hander has posted a 6.55 ERA in losing his last four starts against the Tigers. Romero has struggled with his control all year, walking 4.75 per nine innings to rank among the worst in baseball. The Tigers must get moving if they want to see the post season and I see this one getting out of hand in a hurry. This is a chase A play to win 1 unit.

Play San Diego plus the money line versus Pittsburgh. San Diego (54-70) will start Marquis (6-7, 4.08), who tossed a two-hitter at PNC Park to beat Burnett earlier this month, taking a no-no into the seventh. Marquis is 6-1 with a 2.80 ERA in his last seven starts against the Pirates. Six of the 14 earned runs he's allowed in that stretch came in the lone loss. The Pirates (67-55) will send Burnett (15-4, 3.54 ERA) to the mound. Burnett’s last two starts have been a slight cause for concern. He allowed five runs and nine hits over 5 2-3 innings of a 5-0 loss to San Diego (54-70) on Aug. 11, then gave up six runs over 6 2-3 in a 10-6 victory over Los Angeles on Thursday. Pittsburgh's 163 strikeouts in August are the most in the majors. This is a non chase play.

Play the New York Yankees on the money line versus the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees (72-50) will start Nova (11-6, 4.76 ERA) has been outstanding in his first four career starts against the White Sox, going 2 – 0 with a 1.33 ERA. The Yankees are 26-17 against left-handed starters this season. The White Sox (66-55) will start Francisco Liriano (4-10, 5.22), who picked up his first win against the Yankees on Aug. 20, 2011, but was rocked for five runs, seven hits and four walks while lasting just 2 1-3 innings in an 8-3 loss April 17. This is a non chase play.