Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 24,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
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Jeremy Guthrie matches serves with Gavin Floyd at Comiskey Park in the opener of this three-game series this evening knowing Guthrie is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA in his last three team starts against the Pale Hose. He's also 3-0 with a super-sharp 0.90 ERA in his last three road team starts during the month of August. With Floyd in rocky current form with a7.06 ERA in his last three starts, look for the Birds to improve to 2-0 against Floyd here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

Matt Fargo
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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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We used the Blue Jays in this spot last night and we will come back with them once again for a lot of the same reasons. Toronto lost two of three in Boston over the weekend to put up a disappointing 4-5 roadtrip. Like New York, the Blue Jays are a much better team at home than on the road and they showed it last night with a win in this opener. They continue to have good success against the Yankees this season, going 6-4 in the 10 meetings including 3-1 at home. The Yankees were coming off a very successful homestand where they went 5-2 and that is no surprise as they have been solid at home all season long. They are good on the road as well but not as good and their recent run is now 4-6 over their last 10 games after last night. Also, they have a 7-12 run in their last 19 road games against teams with a .500 or better record and that goes all the way back to May 10th showing that New York has had a very favorable road schedule over this stretch by playing a lot of losing teams. I thought Toronto has a solid edge on the mound last night and I think that is the case again tonight. The name Marc Rzepczynski is not going to put a scare into many teams and neither will his 4.76 ERA on the season but he has some solid stuff. Rzepczynski, who was expected to crack the starting rotation this season, injured the finger in his final Grapefruit League start against the Yankees on March 30 and was forced to start the season in AAA Las Vegas. He ended last season by tossing four straight quality outings and finished with a 3.67 ERA in 11 starts so he has shown the ability to pitch well. He has a 2.77 ERA in his two nighttime starts with Toronto winning both games. Dustin Moseley counters for the Yankees and he has been up and down since his call up from the minors. Moseley had another rough outing against the Tigers in his last game as he allowed four runs on five hits and two walks in five innings. He gave up three home runs and has now allowed seven dingers in his last four starts and the Blue Jays are not the team to face if keeping the ball in the yard is a problem. Toronto has already roughed him up for five runs including two home runs earlier this month. 3* Toronto Blue Jays

Cajun Sports
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Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
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The New York Mets host the Florida Marlins for three-games beginning on Tuesday night and the first pitch is set for 7:10PM Eastern Standard Time. Florida will send Josh Johnson to the bump with his 4-3 road record and ERA of 3.37. His last three trips to the hill have produced a record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.58. Johnson had his way with the Mets for the better part of seven games but his last outing here in New York back on April 5 of this season saw him give up four earned runs over five innings of work in a 7 to 1 loss. The Mets will counter with RA Dickey who is 5-1 at home this season with an outstanding ERA of only 1.22. He has received mixed results in his last three trips to the bump going 1-1 with an ERA of 2.66 in those contests. His last start versus Florida came this season back in June a game in which he pitched for 6.3 innings giving up three earned runs on seven hits in a 4 to 3 victory. New York has been solid as a home underdog in this price range with a record of 8-3. They are also 4-2 this season in New York versus Florida for +1.9 units of profit for their backers. The oddsmakers have currently set the total at 6.5 on this game and if it closes at 7 or less we note that the Metropolitans are 9-2 in this situation their last eleven times to post. We will back the New Yorkers here as they give us a nice underdog winner on Tuesday night.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* New York Mets 2 Florida Marlins 1

Rocketman
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Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins
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Florida is 62-61 overall this year and the NY Mets come in with a 62-62 overall record on the season. These two teams are having decent seasons but don't look like they'll come close to making the playoffs unless they go on crazy runs. Florida sends their ace to the mound tonight in Josh Johnson. Florida has won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Florida bullpen has a 3.53 ERA on the road this year where Florida actually has a winning record at 33-31 this year. Johnson is 11-5 with a 2.27 ERA overall this year and has a 3.37 ERA on the road this season. Johnson is 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA overall vs NY Mets since 1997. RA Dickey is 1-2 with a 7.80 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!

Jim Feist
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Braves vs. Rockies
play: Over 9
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Colorado is an offensive park and two very strong offenses meet here. Atlanta starter Derek Lowe is very good at home, but looking his age on the road where he is 3-6 with a 4.96 ERA. The Braves are tops in the NL in on base percentage and Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa walks a ton of batters. In his last 3 starts he's pitched 18 innings and walks 11. He has an ERA over 10 in his career against the Braves, too. Play the Braves/Rockies Over the total.

Brad Diamond Sports
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Florida over NY Mets
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The Marlins visit New York this evening looking to bag a series from the struggling Mets. With ace hurler Josh Johnson (11-5, 2.27) the odds are the Fish will accrue a huge win. In 7 of the last 8 starts with Johnson, the Fish have defeated New York. Overall the Marlins with Johnson are a super 24-10 versus the National League East. Also, the Mets field with a horrid 16-35 mark against hurlers with a WHIP less than 1.15. Finally, New York rarely backs hard luck pitcher Dickey, and this month was no different as they scored just 10 runs in 7 games at Citifield overall. So, our insight goes to Florida who has all the value behind Josh Johnson. Good Luck and thanks for using Brad Diamond Sports.

Gill Alexander
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TOR (+100) vs NYY
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Righties are hitting .286 v Moseley, a scary proposition for the Yankees starter v the Jays right-handed heavy lineup. He has a 5.74ERA in his last 3 outings. He has a sickly high 6.30FIP and 4.79xFIP w a "lucky" .244BABIP and an even more troubling 2.04 HR/9IP rate. Against the #1 HR-hitting team in MLB in the Jays, that latter stat is a death sentence. Rzepczynski has a 2.38ERA in his last 2 outings but he does have a 7.71ERA v NYY. He has a 3.89FIP and 4.19xFIP w a "unlucky" 3.39BABIP in limited action in 2010. He's holding lefties to a .211BA but righties to a .309BA. The Yankees will try to lean right-handed where they can, but ARod will be out of the lineup once again. This play is strictly an anti-Moseley call, banking on that HR rate against him to catapult the Jays to victory.

Tom Freese
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Astros at Phillies
Prediction: Under
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Philadelphia starter Cole Hammels is 16-9 UNDER in his 25 starts this year. Hamels is 15-5 UNDER his last 20 starts. The Phillies are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 games when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Phils are 4-0 UNDER their last 4 games as home favorites. Houston starter Bud Norris has allowed 4 runs or less in 6 straight starts. The Astros are 33-16-3 UNDER their last 52 road games vs. lefty starters. Houston is 6-2 UNDER their last 8 games and they are 21-8-2 UNDER their last 31 games as underdogs.

Scott Spreitzer
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Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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There have not been many bright spots for the Halos in 2010, but one of the few has been the pitching of Ervin Santana. He and the Angels are on a 5-1 run when he takes the bump, and I expect another win tonight. Santana has been absolutely horrible against the Rays in seven starts at Tropicana Field. In fact, he owns an ERA greater than seven in those outings. But he's been practically untouchable in his three home starts against Tampa. Santana has held the Rays to three earned runs and 19 base runners in those three outings, spanning 22 1/3 innings. That's a 1.21 ERA & 0.85 WHIP, to go along with a 3-0 record and an 8.88 Ks per 9 IP ratio. Look for Santana to work his home magic on the Rays again tonight. I'm backing the Angels on Tuesday.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians
Play: Oakland Athletics
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The Cleveland Indians host the Oakland Athletics tonight at 7:05 EST in the first game of the series. Left-handed Gonzalez is on the mound for Oakland and has been pitching excellent. He has a consistent 3.39 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in all his starts this season and an excellent 1.35 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts. On the other side of the pitching matchup, Carmona starts for the Cleveland Indians. He has been pitching terrible with a 4.15 ERA in all his starts, an even worse 4.26 ERA when playing at home, and a terrible 6.87 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in his last three starts. Carmona has a terrible 3-13 team start record when starting against an AL West opponent. Should be an easy night for the Athletics!

SEAN MURPHY

Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
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The price to back the San Diego Padres is steep, but thanks to a morning move, it's actually a little cheaper than it should be in my opinion.

Don't be fooled by Arizona's series win against Colorado over the weekend. The Rockies have been simply awful on the road this season, and the D'Backs took full advantage, taking two of three games. It's worth noting that Arizona scored only seven runs over the course of that three-game set.
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The D'Backs own the third-worst road record in all of baseball, having won only 19 of 59 games entering this series. As much as they would like to play spoiler against the N.L. West leaders, I don't see it happening.

San Diego dropped two of three games in Milwaukee over the weekend, but still finished their 10-game road trip with a strong 7-3 record. They've won 11 of their last 14 games overall, stretching their lead in the N.L. West to 5.5 games.
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This is no time for a letdown however, as the Giants did inch closer with an 11-2 blowout win over the Reds last night. The Padres are loaded with veterans, and are one of the best managed teams in the majors. They realize the importance of winning the games they should down the stretch. Keep in mind, they'll host a tough series with the Phillies beginning on Friday.

On the injury front, there's some good news for Padres backers, as they're expected to get both Yorvit Torrealba and Jerry Hairston Jr. back in the lineup on Tuesday. The pair missed time during their weekend series in Milwaukee, although the offense didn't miss a beat, plating 18 runs.
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Rodrigo Lopez will take the mound for the D'Backs. He's really been struggling in August, going winless in four starts, while posting a 6.55 ERA and .333 opponents batting average. He owns just two victories in 11 road starts this season, where he's recorded a 5.09 ERA.

The current Padres roster has absolutely crushed Lopez, hitting a collective .327 while slugging .606 in 104 career at-bats against him. Seven current Padres hitters have homered off of him.
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Clayton Richard will get the call for the Padres. He's endured an up and down season, but has been mostly up here at home, where he's 5-3 with a 3.24 ERA and .235 opponents batting average. Note that opponents are hitting .297 against him on the road. Since going 1-2 in April, Richard has posted a 10-3 mark since.

The current D'Backs roster has hit Richard well, to the tune of a .390 batting average and .634 slugging percentage. However, we're not talking about nearly as large of a sample size as we were with Lopez. The D'Backs have just 41 career at-bats against him. The Padres were 8-5 winners in Richard's lone home start against Arizona this season.
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This is just as much of a mismatch as the price indicates, perhaps even moreso. Richard may not be able to shut down the D'Backs lineup, but the Padres offense should give him plenty of help, as they pick up another important win in late August. Take San Diego.

SPORTS WAGERS
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MILWAUKEE/Los Angeles Over 8½
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Ted Lilly has been lights out since joining the Dodgers but like we always say, “Look under the surface and sometimes things aren’t really as they appear. In four starts with the Dodgers, Lilly has given up just four runs in 28 innings but a close look reveals he faced Colorado, Washington and San Diego, all at Chavez Ravine while his one road start was in Atlanta. Incidentally, the Braves numbers vs lefties rank near the bottom of the league in almost every category. Lilly has pitched a lot of innings in pitchers parks but Miller Park is anything but. Fact is, Lilly is an extreme flyball pitcher with an astonishing FB/GB ratio of 49%/30%. Throw in a high strand rate of 76% and a strand rate of 95% since joining the Dodgers and you can see why he’s a big risk at this park against this team. The Brewers are one of the top homerun hitting teams in the league. In fact, their 29.2 AB/HR is tops in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get a couple off Lilly. Dave Bush allowed one run over six innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday, but then left with a blister on his pitching hand. Those irritating blisters could pop again at anytime and Bush isn’t very good to begin with. He has a 4.62 ERA at home but his xERA is 5.15. Current Dodger batters have gone 36-111 against Bush for a BA of .316. Lastly, both bullpens are a disaster waiting to happen and it’s also worth noting that 15 of the Brewers last 20 games at home have gone over the total. Play: Milwaukee/Los Angeles over 8½ (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).

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Oakland –1.08 over CLEVELAND
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Gio Gonzalez has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his last 11 starts and it gets even better than that. Check out who Gonzalez has faced over his last eight starts; The Yanks, Kansas City, Boston, Texas (twice), the White Sox, the Twins and the finally the Blue Jays. That might be the toughest stretch of hitters that any pitcher has faced this year and now Gonzalez takes a huge step down in class when facing these Indians. The last time he pitched in Cleveland back on July 2, Gonzalez threw six innings of shutout ball. In four August starts he has a BAA of .158 and again, the opposition over that stretch was very tough. Gonzalez’s confidence is soaring right now and so it should be. The kid has filthy stuff. Fausto Carmona appears to be running on fumes right now. He’s been tagged for 46 hits in his last 28 innings and in four August starts, which include one against both KC and Seattle, the opposition is hitting a monstrous .356 off him. Remember, Carmona pitched just 120 and 125 innings in ’08 and ’09 respectively and this year he’s already up to 156. The workload that he’s unaccustomed to is taking its toll big time and frankly this is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions. Play: Oakland –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS
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Texas Rangers -135
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The Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano is having a nice season for Minnesota, but he has not pitched well in his last two outing and I don't expect him to pitch well tonight in the Texas heat against the first place Rangers. In his last two starts Pavano has been catching way too much of the plate with his pitches. Pavano has yielded twenty five hits in those two games which spanned 12.1 innings and allowed nine earned runs in those two games. I look for the explosive Texas lineup to due some damage tonight as well. The Rangers send their "tough luck" pitcher Colby Lewis to the mound for this start. Lewis is now 0-5 over his past six starts, despite logging a 3.20 ERA over that span as Lewis has been the Texas pitcher that has failed to get run support on a consistent basis. I expect that to change tonight against the struggling Carl Pavano and I look for Lewis and the Rangers to pick up the win. Play on Texas.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Dodgers -123
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With Lilly stepping to the mound, the Dodgers have the edge tonight. Lilly is 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and he has only allowed 5 hits and given up no runs in his last 2 outings. He has also been lights out in Miller Park, where he has an ERA of 0.64 this season (2 starts), and where he is holding the Brewers to a .176 average in his last 4 starts. Bush takes the mound for Milwaukee, and he is carrying an ERA of 4.62 at home this season. That number is up to 5.19 over his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 0-6 in Bush's last 6 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the National League West. The Dodgers have won 4 of their last 5 in Milwaukee, and I look for them to build on that mark behind Lilly this evening.