Bryan Gillis
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
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Just looking at these two teams you like the padres. As you dig into the pitching, it solidifies the pick. Then looking at the abysmal record of Arizona on the road and its a no-brainer.
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Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Lopezs last 6 starts as an underdog.
Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Lopezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Lopezs last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Lopezs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Lopezs last 7 road starts.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Lopezs last 7 starts vs. National League West.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Lopezs last 7 starts.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Lopezs last 7 starts on grass.
Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Lopezs last 7 starts as a road underdog.
Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Lopezs last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Lopezs last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
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Padres are 8-1 in Richards last 9 starts vs. National League West.
Padres are 7-1 in Richards last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Padres are 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Padres are 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Padres are 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Padres are 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts.
Padres are 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts on grass.
Bryan Leonard
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
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It's rare when you get this deep in the season and find a starter with a 1.22 ERA at home as an underdog. But that's exactly what we find tonight with RA Dickey and the New York Mets. Dickey has struggled a bit with Florida this season which is really surprising. The Marlins are a free swinging team that relies on the long ball yet they haven't gone deep against Dickey. We expect Florida to go back to their all or nothing ways tonight as Dickey continues his excellent current form. In his last two starts he's gone 17.1 innings allowing just two earned runs. He owns a 13 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio during that time. The Mets have won 4 of his last 5 starts.
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Big name starter Josh Johnson takes the hill for Florida tonight, but he's regressed badly as of late. After a stellar start to the season Johnson has allowed 18 earned runs in his last five starts. That despite facing the less than formidable offenses of the likes of Pittsburgh, San Diego and San Francisco.
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The Mets have won 4 of the last 6 meetings and three straight at Citi Field. Look for the home dog to bite tonight.
JR O'Donnell
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DET (-160) vs KAN
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Detroit Tiger's crush boys and the East Coast assassin the O'ster is piping hot! The poor poor 53-72 KC Royals have been just a bottom feeder the last few years and the lack of talent shows. The KC Kyle Davis show will be lit up by the Tiger's who had 17 hits last night. The 13-2 pounding Monday will continue again behind R. Porecello. The JR O has the Power Ratings @ 2.7 run variance & our camp does not like laying this much lead as the Tigers @ - 160 is about as high as we will go. Let's play the Tigers Easy..
Teddy Covers
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Oakland Athletics
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To say that Gio Gonzalez has owned the Indians anemic lineup is something of an understatement. Gonzalez faced the Tribe in July, throwing 6.2 innings of scoreless baseball in a 3-0 A’s victory. He faced Cleveland earlier in the season, throwing seven innings of shutout ball in an 11-0 Oakland win. Gonzalez faced the Indians twice last year, allowing a grand total of three earned runs in the two starts; both Oakland victories. That’s a solid track record of domination, worth supporting here.
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Gonzalez is in stellar current form, coming off a seven inning, two hit performance against Toronto in his last outing. He’s got a 2.49 ERA and a .200 batting average against in seven starts since the All Star break. Facing a slumping Indians lineup (only three runs scored in three games while getting swept at Detroit over the weekend), look for continued success from Oakland’s undervalued young lefty.
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Fausto Carmona is trending the other way right now, 1-4 with a 7.07 ERA in his last five starts. The Indians continue to slump; just 3-11 in their last 14 ballgames, losers of six consecutive series. That includes series losses at home to last place teams like Seattle and Baltimore. The A’s have won nine of the last eleven meetings between these two teams, and the price is quite reasonable to support the better team with the better starter tonight. 2* Take Oakland.
Larry Ness
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Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Oakland Athletics
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The A's are just 23-35 on the road this year plus own an offense which averages modest 4.02 RPG (just 3.79 on the road) while hitting the fewest HRs (73) of any team in MLB. However, the Oakland pitching staff owns the lowest ERA in the AL at 3.56. The team's starting rotation has dominant in August, with each starter lasting at least six innings in 21 consecutive games while posting a 2.11 ERA! A's starting pitchers have allowed three ERs or less in 15 consecutive outings entering tonight's game. Gio Gonzalez (10-8, 3.39 ERA) has done his part lately, posting a 2.12 ERA over his last five starts while holding opposing batters to a .169 average (hasn't allowed a HR). However, he's just 1-2 in that span (team is 2-3), due to the fact he hasn't gotten much run support. That should change here vs Fausto Carmona. He has bounced back somewhat this year from two injury-marred and unproductive seasons by going 11-11 with a 4.14 ERA but Carmona's been 'lit up' in his last three starts, allowing 28 hits and 14 ERs in just 18.1 innings for a 6.87 ERA. While the A's have a poor overall road record, it should be noted that when playing at Baltimore and Cleveland back on June 29-July 4, the A's took two of three games in each city. A week later, the team swept a three-game series in KC. Against this caliber of competition (Indians' rotation is 1-12 with a 5.82 ERA over the last 16 games, during which opponents are hitting .329), the A's should be just fine. Winning at least two times in three tries here in Cleveland seems reasonable. Not getting ahead of myself, let's take the A's tonight. Gonzalez has allowed 10 hits over 13.2 scoreless innings in two wins against Cleveland this year and is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in four career starts against the Indians (A's are 4-0).
Nelly
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Chicago + over Washington
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While Lou Piniella is universally respected, the Cubs clearly played well in the first game without him. Chicago put together 15 hits last night in a 9-1 blowout win in Washington while getting a great start from rookie Casey Coleman. It has been a tumultuous season for Carlos Zambrano but the troubled ace has settled down and pitched well since returning to the rotation. While his endurance may not be fully back he has allowed just five runs in his last three starts, striking out 15 and not allowing a single home run. All three starts came against playoff contenders and Zambrano should be in position for a successful outing against Washington. While the Nationals own a slightly better record than the Cubs on the season, Washington has been on a great slide, going 4-11 in the last 15 games. Washington is a winning team at home for the season but the Nats are 2-6 in the last eight home games. John Lannan has a 5.27 ERA at home for the season and his season WHIP is 1.70. Lannan was a good pitcher with a bad record in 2008 and 2009 for Washington but this season he has not been sharp despite picking up wins in his last three starts. For the year Lannan has more walks allowed than strikeouts and the Cubs are 2-0 in games against Lannan the last two years. Chicago is batting .311 in the last ten games against left-handed pitching while Washington is hitting .233 against right-handers in that timeframe. Look for Chicago to carry some momentum from last night into another win on Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins +126
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The Twins are showing good value in the underdog role with ace Carl Pavano on the hill. The Twins are 11-3 in Pavano's last 14 starts and 7-1 in his last 8 road starts. They are also 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Twins have won 21 of their last 28 games, and they are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. The Rangers are 0-6 in Lewis' last 6 starts and 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Take the Twins tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Oakland A's -108
Reasons the A's win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 51-11 ML System hitting 82.3% since 1997. This system is 9-2 this season.
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2.) Gio Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. Cleveland, and the A's are a perfect 4-0 in those 4 games. Bet Oakland on the road.
Doug Upstone
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
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A long season for the Arizona Diamondbacks started early and never relented. The D-Backs are an average offensive team at 4.5 runs per game, but miserable pitching, especially from the bullpen has under-minded them all year. Contrast that with first place San Diego, who has fantastic bullpen (2.84 ERA vs. Arizona’s 6.06 ERA).
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San Diego has parlayed its imposing pitching with a newfound offense (5.4 RPG since Aug.8 compared to season average of 4.4) and is on 11-3 run in past 14 games. The Padres will face the Snakes Rodrigo Lopez, whose been tagged for 30 home runs in 25 starts. Today we will look to Play Against a below average NL hitting team, batting .255 or less, against a team with a sharp bullpen ERA 3.33 or lower, with a starting pitcher who gives up more than one homer per start. In the last five years the record is solid 69-23, 75 percent.
Hollywood Sports
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Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
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Texas defeated them by a 4-0 score last night -- but the Rangers have not done well as of late to sustain much momentum as they have lost five of their last six games coming off a win. They send out Colby Lewis who is 9-10 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this year. But Lewis has not been as effective at home given his 1.30 WHIP and .247 opponent's batting average as compared to his 1.08 WHIP and .208 opponent's batting average on the road this season. The Rangers have also lost all six of Lewis' last six starts. This is a dangerous proposition when now facing a Twins' lineup that has won eight of their last ten games against right-handed starters. Minnesota counters with their veteran Carl Pavano who is 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Pavano has actually been more effective away from home this season as evidenced by his 3.13 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .240 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .281 opponent's batting average at home. And the Twins have won seven of their last eight road games behind Pavano. As a mild underdog here, Minnesota offers a nice opportunity. Take the Twins while listing both pitchers.
John Ryan
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Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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5* graded play on Philadelphia using the Run Line as they host the Astros set to start at 7:05 EST. Hamels has had to be one of the tough luck starters this season. He is an amazing 0-3 despite producing a 3.15 ERA and a 1.050 WHIP. In two of these starts he allowed one earned run and LOST both times to the Mets. In seven of his last nine starts he has worked a MINIMUM of seven innings and against a weak hitting Houston team we certainly see seven or perhaps a complete game. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will cover the run line. Houston is batting just 246 and scoring 3.8 RPG on the season and are batting 224 and scoring 2.4 RPG in the last seven games. Supporting this graded play is a run line system that has produced a record of 54-26 making 23.6 units since 2004. Play against all dogs against a 1.5 run line with a Money Line =+110 to +155 with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This system simply under scores the aforementioned research and the simulator projections and 5* grading. take the Phillies.
Wunderdog
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Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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Jonathon Sanchez has had a very good year - consistent from start to finish, pitching to a 3.47 ERA for the season. The Giants, over the past two years, have established themselves as one of the top home teams in baseball at 90-58 in their last 148 played here. The Reds have done extremely well on the road where they are 36-27 for the season. Taking a closer look however, an eye-popping stat is revealed. The Reds are 33-14 on the road vs. teams at .500 or less, but when they face a team over .500, they are 4-12 and got hammered here last night 11-2. I like San Francisco in this one.
Jack Jones
St Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: St Louis Cardinals -1½
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With Adam Wainwright on the mound and the Cardinals playing great baseball right now, I'll take St. Louis on the Run Line Tuesday to beat the Pirates by 2 runs or more. Wainwright is 17-7 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 26 starts this season. He'll take on Paul Maholm of the Pirates, who is 7-12 witha 5.04 ERA and 1.572 WHIP this season. Maholm is 0-3 with a 7.79 ERA and 1.932 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Wainwright is 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
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The Cards are a perfect 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts vs. Pittsburgh, winning by 2 runs or more in all 4 games. In fact, the Cardinals have outscored the Pirates 39-15 in Wainwright's last 4 starts vs. Pittsburgh. This season alone, Wainwright is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against Pittsburgh while allowing 3 earned runs in 13 innings of 9-1 and 11-4 victories. Maholm has faced the Cards just once this year, yielding 6 runs, 4 earned, and 9 base runners in 3.1 innings of a 4-11 loss. St. Louis is 3-0 in their last 3 gaems, outscoring their opponents 24-3. This team is feeling really good right now at the plate and I expect them to continue their great play tonight as they sit 2.5 games behind the Reds in the NL Central. Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday.
Dan Bebe
ANA (-105) vs TAM
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We'll keep the notes on this freebie brief, since the writeup on the other play took half the morning.
The Angels were severely jet-lagged last night in losing the opener of the 3-game set. We faded them.
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Tonight, they'll be rested and ready to go, and will be facing a pitcher coming back from a shoulder injury. It's always a decent move to fade a pitcher coming off a throwing-arm injury, and with Wade Davis pitching on the road, the adrenaline won't last quite as long.
I like the Angels to actually come up with a key hit tonight and put up a few runs in the starter.
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On the Angels side, Ervin Santana has been on a nice roll, so we'll just ride the wave. His career numbers against Tampa aren't overwhelming, but again, we know how streaky Santana can be, and when he's on his game, his stuff is downright nasty.
Tampa's best bullpen arms have also been used quite a bit on this current road trip, and you know Joe Maddon would love to try to get through this one without taxing those quality arms unless he has to. That leaves the door open for the Angels to add a run or two, late.
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I like LA to take this middle game by the final score of 5-3.
King Creole
BALTIMORE ORIOLES +160
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The White Sox come into today's Game One in a major tailspin. They lost 2 of 3 to the Royals... 2 out of 3 to the Twins... 2 out of 3 to the Tigers... 2 out of 3 to the Twins... and 3 out of 4 to these same ORIOLES. That's 4-10 in their last 14 games. Starting pitcher ERA os 5.20 in their last 10 games, and bullpen ERA is 5.40.
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It also looks like Gavin Floyd of the Sox has 'hit a wall'. ERA in his last two starts is a whopping 9.75! Meanwhile, Jeremy Guthrie of the Oriioles has been one of the American League's BEST starters since the All-Star break. His ERA in that 7-start span is only 2.17. In the last 2 seasons, Guthrie has gone a PERFECT 3-0 vs the Pale Hose... with an ERA of only 1.56. We'll gladly climb aboard the better CURRENT pitcher with a great Underdog price on Tuesday night!