VEGAS EXPERTS
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
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This series against Arizona almost looks like a "must sweep" for the Giants, who just dropped three in a row to division rival Colorado to fall four back in the Wild Card chase. Luckily for them, in tonight's series opener, they have Matt Cain going. SF has won 17 of Cain's 25 starts this season, including 9 of 10 when off a loss. The G-Men are 25-11 overall in home night games while the D'backs are 12 games under .500 when coming off a win. Lay the price.
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Play on: San Francisco
Vernon Croy
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Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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We are getting solid value here Tuesday night with the White Sox who send Freddy Garcia (0-1, 10.38) to the mound since he is 7-2 over 14 career starts against the Red Sox. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games after a loss and they are also 6-1 in their last 7 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. The White Sox are 21-6 in their last 27 games in game 2 of a series and they are also a perfect 5-0 in Garcia's last 5 starts as an underdog including 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road dog. The Red Sox are just 7-17 in their last 24 games when playing a team with a winning record and there is simply too much value here to pass up Tuesday night so take the Chicago White Sox Tuesday night.
BIG AL
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Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Over 9.5
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The second game of this Sox vs. Sox four game series is perhaps the most interesting of the pitching matchups. Boston has been scoring runs in big numbers lately: an amazing 65 runs in its last seven games as a matter of fact. So how ugly could this one get as Freddy Garcia, who at one time was the ace of the White Sox takes the mound tonight at Fenway Park. The only problem is, when Garcia was the ace of the White Sox, it was almost a decade ago. This is a guy who had 11 starts in 2007 (with a 1-5 record and 5.90 ERA), three starts in 2008, and just had his first start of 2009 on August 18 against one of the easiest opponents he could possibly face for his comeback, and the result was not pretty as Garcia was more than rusty in failing to get out of the 5th inning against the Royals. Boston will retaliate with their #2 starter, lefthander Jon Lester and Lester has been absolutely fantastic in his recent starts, limiting his opponents to one earned run in nine of this last 15. However, it's a good thing Lester has been getting excellent run support lately as many times he leaves games with a comfortable lead, only to have the Boston bullpen make it closer than it needs to be. In fact, in five of Lester's last eight starts, Boston has scored seven or more runs. take the 'over.'
JR TIPS
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Dodgers at Rockies
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are now battling to hold onto their lead in the NL as they look to continue their season-long success against the second-place Rockies tonight at Coors Field.Los Angeles (74-51) faces the wild-card leading Rockies (71-54) who won against San Francisco Monday night with a walk-off grand slam to deliver a 6-4 victory.The Rockies' seventh win in eight games moved them four games ahead of the Giants in the division.Los Angeles has won 10 of the clubs' 12 meetings, including five of six in Denver and the Dodgers have averaged 6.6 runs and batted .306 in the series.Los Angeles won three straight over the Chicago Cubs before dropping the series finale 3-1 on Sunday. The Dodgers will try to snap a six-game losing streak with Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96 ERA) on the mound.The 21-year-old left-hander gave up two runs and five hits in 3 2/3 innings in the Dodgers' 3-2 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. He walked four in that game and has issued 15 in 19 innings over four August starts.Kershaw gave up a career-high nine runs in 4 2/3 innings to lose his first start against Colorado this season April 26th although he is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts against the Rockies since then. Colorado starts Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.54), who is 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three career games against the Dodgers and Hammel delivered another strong outing Thursday, allowing one run and three hits in seven innings to beat Washington 4-1, his third win in four starts.This is a big series for both teams in the division and these starting have been solid giving up lees than 3 runs to today"s opponent in their last 2 outings. The Dodgers number 3-6 hitters combined to go 0 for 12 with four strikeouts as the Dodgers finished with three hits in their last outing and the Rockies needed a grandslam in the 14th inning to get the win. This is a good pitching matchup that get keep runs at a minimum.
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TAKE UNDER 9
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Cleveland Indians +1.5
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Cleveland took down the Royals 10-6 last night and I like them again tonight as Greinke is being overvalued. There's no doubt that he's a fine pitcher, but the Indians are playing much better baseball right now and Greinke has not been getting any run support. In fact, the Royals are 1-8 in Greinke's last 9 starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. the American League Central. KC is also 0-10 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings with the Royals. Masterson is coming off a gem against the Angels 5 days ago and I expect him to be good enough to get the win against the struggling Royals.
The Sports Investing Professional
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
The Nat's can hit. I know the Cubs have Zambrano on the mound but to be honest there is a reason he has never won more than 14 or 15 games. He's out of shape and he's a clown. Two bad attributes to have as a pitcher. Make sure you bet this on ACTION in case Zambrano scratches at the last minute again. I'm playing 1/2 my bet on ACTION on the money line and 1/2 on the runline
Washington Nationals +220
Washington Nationals +1.5
EZWINNERS
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +132
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James Shields was Tampa Bay's opening day starter, but wins have been hard to come by for him this season. Shields has really struggled as of late and is only 1-5 in his last 11 starts. This is not a good spot for him to get back on track either. Shields is only 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA on the road this season and in three games against the Blue Jays this year he has an 0-3 record. The Rays might also not be able to provide much run support for Shields in this spot. Tampa Bay tends to struggle against left handers and Toronto's southpaw Brett Cecil is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA against the Rays this season. Tampa Bay is only 2-6 in Shields' last eight starts as a road favorite. The wrong team is favored in this match up. Play on Toronto.
MATT FARGO
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Dodgers at Rockies
Pick: Rockies
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We will take a shot with the underdog Rockies tonight. This series is huge for both teams as Colorado trails the Dodgers by just three games in the National League West with 37 games remaining for both teams. Colorado has really put the pressure on Los Angeles who looked like it was going to run away with the division. On June 3rd, the Dodgers had a 9.5-game lead over the Giants while Colorado was sitting in last place, 15.5 games back. The Rockies have been on fire since with a 51-22 record over their last 73 games. This is the second to last series with the Dodgers as the two meet once again in the final weekend of the season in Los Angeles. The Rockies send Jason Hammel to the mound who is having an average season but he has put together some good starts. He has had a solid August with a 3.97 ERA while going 3-1 and hopes to continue the run at home. The Rockies lost two of his first three starts at Coors Field but they have gone 6-1 in his last seven outings there and despite some rough numbers, it is the wins that count the most. He has a 7.02 ERA at home and that is very poor but his offense is averaging 6.7 rpg in those 10 home starts so he is doing enough to keep his team in games. The Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw who is putting together a great season with a 2.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP through 25 starts. There are issues however and the most glaring is that he is just 8-8 on the season while Los Angeles is only 12-13 in those 25 starts. The other issue is when he hits the road. At home, Kershaw has a 2.00 ERA in 14 starts but in 11 road starts, that ERA jumps to 4.12. Coors Field has been hit or miss in his four starts there over two years as he has two quality performances but his ERA is 8.24 while his WHIP is 1.98. This includes a 10.13 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in two starts there this season. Los Angeles is 0-6 in his last six starts while the Rockies are 11-1 in their last 12 home games against a left-handed starter.
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3* Colorado Rockies.
The Spread
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games at home
Pick: LA Dodgers
Oakland A’s at Seattle Mariners
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oakland's last 12 games on the road
Oakland is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Pick: Seattle
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Arizona is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Pick: San Francisco
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -125
I know the Giants played a late one last night, but they'll be hungry to get back in the win column following their 3rd straight loss. Returning home and sending Matt Cain to the mound figures to be a winning recipe. Cain has been brilliant this season, especially at home, where the Giants have won 10 of his 12 starts and he has posted an ERA of 2.37. Haren had a great first half for the D-backs but he has started his normal late season slide. In fact, he's just 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA overall this month. The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. the National League West. Bet the Giants.
Mike Rose
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5
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Garcia made his first start in the Bigs in almost a year a week ago tonight against the Kansas City Royals. He got tagged with the loss in Chicago’s 5-4 loss, and looked nothing like the hurler that helped lead the White sox to their World Series championship back in ‘05. He allowed seven hits and five earned runs while striking out three and walking one in just 4.1 innings work. After the outing, he said he relied too much on his slider and should have trusted his fastball more. He’s fared well against Boston throughout his career going 6-2 with a 4.78 ERA in 14 overall starts.
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After four straight no decisions, Lester scratched the win column his last time out against Toronto to earn his 10th victory on the year. He baffled the Blue Jays through eight innings allowing just three hits and one ER with a K/BB ratio of 5/2. The lefty strikeout artist has surrendered just six ER’s and has averaged 1.22 K’s per inning pitched to go along with a 2.00 ERA in the month of August. Boston’s 8-3 in his 11 home starts where he’s allowed just 74 hits (4 HR) and 26 ER’s in 70.1 innings of work. He has two career starts against Chicago under his belt where he’s 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA & 1.39 WHIP.
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Boston’s just flat out owned Chicago ever since they ousted them from the playoffs in ‘05. Garcia’s the last guy Guillen wanted to see in this spot since he needs to give his overtaxed pen a break after failing to register a quality start in their L/2 games. Lester’s a machine that’s been pretty much untouchable in August. If Chicago gets to him, kudos to them; I don’t see it happening at all…
LT Profits
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
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The Oakland Athletics consider Brett Anderson to be the ace of their rotation for many years to come, and we feel the southpaw gives them the edge over the Seattle Mariners tonight.
After taking his lumps early in this, his first full season as a Major League starter, Anderson has come to form nicely, allowing three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. He pitched very well the last time he faced Seattle, one run on six hits in six innings, and he is facing a Mariners lineup that is batting a measly .226 vs. left handed pitching over the last 10 games.
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Meanwhile, fellow southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith has been unspectacular for Seattle. He is 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA in seven starts, with just three Quality Starts. Granted, that is not terrible, but he would need a shutdown effort if Anderson maintains his current form, and we are not convinced that Rowland-Smith is capable of that at this point in his career.
Now the Mariners have won 10 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings, including seven out of eight he at Safeco, but we really feel that this is a pitching mismatch here. There is a legitimate reason that Oakland is so high on Anderson given his recent performances, and the combination of he and an Athletics bullpen that has a 2.97 ERA in the last 10 games should be too much for Seattle to overcome.
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The Athletics are the play at anything close to a Pick here.
Pick: Athletics +100
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -140
The Cincinnati Reds hung in the NL Central race for quite awhile, but they have totally fallen apart. The Reds are just 8-24 in their last 32 games and are going through experimentation right now, looking at prospects for next year. It has gotten so bad for the Reds that in their last 29 losses, they would be just 3-26 to a runline of +1.5. The Brewers have been outstanding behind Jeff Suppan. When the Brew Crew has allowed two runs or less in their previous game, they have turned in a 13-4 mark in that situation with Suppan on the bump. The Reds are heading nowhere, the lineup is cold and they are simply playing out the string. They have also dropped their last four games played in Milwaukee, and I think that goes to five tonight. I'm going with Milwaukee here.
Doc's Sports
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Take Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays
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The Rays remain just 3-games from the wild card lead. There are just 38 regular season games remaining on their schedule. Fourteen of those games are against Boston and New York. One has to look back only as far as last season to know that Tampa has no fear of either the Red Sox or Yankees. These are games that the Rays must win.
Freddy Wills
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Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Arizona D-Backs
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The Giants have got to be just crushing after their sweep by the Rockies to really drop them out of this Wild Card race. The Rockies won in extra innings on a walk off grand slam by the Rockies. Now they have to face Dan Harren who they have always struggled against at home. Harren goes for the Dbacks coming off one of his worst starts of the year giving up 6 ER to the Phillies on 3HR. Actually Harren has given up 9 HR in his last 6 starts that have seen his ERA rise a bit. Fortunately for him he has a 1.33 ERA in his last 4 starts vs. the Giants three of which came in San Francisco. I don't see HR's hurting him here today as the Giants are #29 in the league with HR's at 87. AT&T park is also at the bottom of the league (24th) in HR allowed this year which makes a good chance for Harren to not give up a HR for the first time in 7 games. I also like the Diamondbacks bullpen to close a game out here which is something the Rockies have not been able to do as of late. Dbacks BP last 10 games is 3.34ERA while the Giants have a 5.17ERA over their last 10. They will send Matt Cain to the mound which is why we are getting such great value here. Cain ha 2 starts both at ARI this year and he's gone 13.1 IP given up 5 ER on 10H but the 9 BB is what is troublesome. I do think he will pitch well enough to win the game, but the Diamondbacks who are #13 in taking walks will get him out of the game early leading to another bullpen disaster for the Giants.