Tom Freese
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Under
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San Francisco is 40-19-4 UNDER their last 63 games vs. teams with a losing record. San Francisco is 7-1 UNDER their last 8 games as home favorites. The Giants are 10-1 UNDER with Matt Cain if he is off a quality start in his last outing. The Giants are 7-2-1 UNDER their last 10 meetings with Diamondbacks. Arizona is 29-14-2 UNDER their last 45 games as road underdogs and they are 4-1-1 UNDER following a day off. The Diamondbacks are 4-1-1 UNDER in the last 6 starts made by Dan Haren. The righthander has a 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
MTi Sports
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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Under
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The Blue Jays are 0-5 OU after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series and the Rays are 0-6 OU as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series. Consider these two UNDER.
Spartan
San Diego at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -1.5
I realize some might flinch at the amount of run lines I play but I cannot abide heavy chalk. When I see a so called pro handicapper actually giving out paid selections at a crazy number, say -275, and I've seen it elsewhere it just makes me sick. That kind of thing will just kill you in a long baseball season. Back to the Braves as I feel my blood pressure rising just thinking about it. They are fighting for their playoff lives, most likely the shot would occur through the wild card route and each game is growing is importance for Bobby Cox's guys. Jair JurrJens for the season has put in sold work as his 2.99 era suggests. On the other side Padres rookie Mat Latos has been looking more vulnerable the last couple of outings after a impressive start. I watched him get absolutely lit up in St Louis for 7 runs last week in only 4 frames of work. I like the Braves here on the run line.
Mr. Vegas Wins
Rays at Blue Jays
Tampa Bay is very good at home, but bad on the road. Starter Scott Shields exemplifies this, with a 4.46 ERA on the road and a 3-4 record. The Rays are 1-5 his last 6 starts. He is 0-2 against Toronto this season. The Blue Jays go with lefty Brett Cecil, who has a 1.17 ERA against the Rays this season. An excellent spot for the! home dog, Play the Blue Jays.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cleveland Indians +145
The Tribe is worth a 1 Unit wager at this price tonight when you consider how poorly the Royals are playing. I know KC sends Greinke to the mound, but the Royals are only 1-8 in his starts in the 2nd half of the season, losing by an average of 2 runs per game. Plus, KC is 0-10 after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, losing by 3.6 runs per game on average in these spots. Masterson looked great in his last start against the Angels and is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 0.948 in 1 career start against KC. The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 while the Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 6-25 in their last 31 home games. Take the Tribe.
Andre Gomes
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Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks
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The Sparks are the hottest team in the league right now riding on a 5-game winning streak and with a 13-13 record, they are looking now to get home court advantage in the first round. The Sparks are 100% healthy and Candace Parker is keeping better as long the season goes by. In their last game in Atlanta, Parker finished the game with 23 points (season high) and although Lisa Leslie was in foul trouble during the whole game, playing just 17 minutes, the Sparks still defeated Atlanta 91-87 with 5 players scoring double digits numbers!
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Meanwhile Chicago is out of the playoffs spots right now and without their best big player Sylvia Fowles, they look pretty weak down the post. Coincidently, the Sky without Fowles are 0-7 SU with 5 of those losses being by double digits points and the minimum of 7 points! In normal conditions the Sparks have a huge edge in the boards and paint and as Fowles will be out for this game I expect the Sparks to spank the Sky inside the paint. After the all star break Chicago defeated Los Angeles 75-63 and now it?s time for a payback: Los Angeles are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. My real line for this game is a blowout line of 9.5/10 points and I see enough value in the Sparks today, take them!
Rocketman
Tampa Bay @ Toronto
Play: Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 68-56 on the season while Toronto comes in with a 57-66 overall record this year. Toronto is only 16-33 against division opponents this year. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their last 9 games overall. Toronto has lost 7 of their last 9 games overall. Tampa Bay bullpen has a 3.65 ERA overall this year and a 3.82 ERA on the road this season. James Shields has a 3.81 ERA overall this year. Tampa Bay has won 10 out of 13 games against Toronto this season. Tampa Bay is sitting 3 games behind Boston in the American League Wild Card race. It's getting down to must win games for this team. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!
Michael Cannon
Cincinnati at MILWAUKEE -135
Take the Brewers as the home chalk over the Reds.
Milwaukee has won three of four and should have no problem downing the Reds tonight.
Cincinnati is tied with Kansas City for the worst record in baseball since the All-Star break at 10-26. The Reds will start Bronson Arroyo tonight and he hasn’t received any run support lately. The right-hander is just 1-4 in his last six starts despite a nice 3.16 ERA.
The Brewers will counter with Jeff Suppan, who is making his first start in a month after being activated from the DL due to a strained left oblique.
Milwaukee has won the last four meetings at Miller Park with Cincinnati, outscoring them 26-12.
Take the Brewers as they grab the home win.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Drew Gordon
Cincinnati +125 at MILWAUKEE
Now on a 45-35 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Indians over the Royals 10-6 Monday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Cincinnati/Milwaukee match up.
Got to pick your spots well if you're going to back the Reds, I understand that fully. Fact is, this is precisely one of those spots and here's why:
First, for as much as the average bettors likes Jeff Suppan in this contest, I'm not convinced. Not only is he fresh off the DL (having last pitched almost a month ago), but he hasn't won a game since June 12th against the White Sox! In fact, since that win, he's gone 0-4 with a 6.55 ERA in his last 8 starts, and to believe he's going to come off the DL and be sharp is foolhardy at best. Not to mention, Suppan has been a gas can against the Reds lately, going 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in his L3 starts against them (all Brewers losses)!
Second, although the Reds have wasted plenty of his recent efforts, there's no arguing with Bronson Arroyo's effectiveness of late, posting a 3.16 ERA over his L6 starts. He's received 3 runs or less in 5 of those 6 starts, with all 5 of those being losses. However, I believe the Reds beleagured offense gets just what the doctor ordered tonight in Suppan, and that's music to Arroyo's ears. Also of note, Arroyo is 3-1 with a solid 2.52 ERA in 5 career starts against the Brew Crew!
Finally, one trend that becomes increasingly difficult to ignore in this match up, (besides Suppan's piss-poor numbers vs the Reds), is the fact the Brewers are just 5-14 in their L19 games following a win. To say the Brewers "take their foot off the gas" after a win, is a gross understatement... One that will cost them dearly tonight, as Arroyo easily outpitches a rusty & vulnerable Suppan.
Take Cincinnati behind Arroyo over Milwaukee and Suppan in this MLB match up.
1♦ CINCINNATI