Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, August 27

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets

When the Mets send Jon Niese to the hill against Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies in Game Two of this four-game NL East division match-up Tuesday evening, New York will do so knowing Niese is in strong KW form with 23 strikeouts and 5 walks his last three starts. On the other side, Kendrick is in struggling current form with a 7.00 ERA his last seven starts. With the Phillies just 1-13 their fourteen road games, we'll stay at home with the better arm here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Matt Fargo

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers opened their roadtrip with a series win at Cincinnati and after a dreadful start to start the season on the road, they have been a lot better. Over their last 20 games on the highway, they have gone 12-8 and most impressive, they have been an underdog in every one of those games. Milwaukee has dropped its last six meetings in Pittsburgh but tonight provides an excellent opportunity to snap that streak as it sends Kyle Lohse to the hill. He is enjoying a very solid season as he has a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 26 starts and he has really picked things up of late. After posting a 6.51 ERA in May, he has put up a 2.53 ERA over his last 16 starts with 13 of those resulting in quality outings. He has allowed more than three runs only once over that stretch and in 18 career starts against the Pirates, he is 9-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. The Brewers have won 12 of his last 16 starts including six of the last seven. Pittsburgh started 4-1 on its most recent roadtrip but dropped the final two games in San Francisco to fall out of first place in the National League Central. The Pirates now trail the Cardinals by a half-game but they still have a significant lead in the Wild Card Standings so the playoffs are pretty much a guarantee, albeit a Wild Card playoff. Still, they are 2-7 in their last nine games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Additionally, they have dropped two straight games at home and turn to Jeff Locke tonight in hopes of getting him back on track. He was outstanding to start the season but fatigue may be starting to settle in as he has tossed 143.2 innings and it has showed. He has gone five straight starts without posting a quality outing, posting a 7.77 ERA in the process. Control has been a real issue as he has 14 walks over his last four starts and while he has two quality starts against Milwaukee this season, both of those came in May.

Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Blue Jays +100

J.A. Happ is much better than the oddsmakers are giving him credit for. He has a 3.32 ERA at home this season, and has been solid in his last three outings putting up a 3.57 ERA. Happ is 2-1 in his career against the Yankees and I expect him to improve on that number today. Run support should not be an issue for Toronto as they are scoring 4.9 runs per game with a .269 batting average against left-handed starters this year.

Andy Pettitte is no longer the lethal pitcher he once was. He has a 4.26 ERA this season, and a .500 overall and road record. Pettitte's last start came at home against Toronto, but in today's matchup he will be pitching on the road so I expect to see dramatically different results today. The Yankees have struggled against division opponents this season, batting .248 and scoring 4.2 runs per game. They also have a 21-37 division record.

Rocketman

Cleveland @ Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -135

The Cleveland Indians travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves on Tuesday night. Cleveland is 71-59 overall this year while the Braves come in with a 78-52 overall record on the season. Atlanta is 40-17 the past 3 years as a home favorite of -125 to -150. You don't mess with the Braves when they are playing with a day off as they are 35-14 last 3 years and 12-3 this year with rest. Cleveland is scoring only 3.7 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of only .230. Atlanta is 44-18 at home this year where they are allowing only 3 runs per game and allowing opposing teams a combined .227 batting average. Alex Wood gets the start for Atlanta where he is 2-2 with a 2.50 ERA in his 22 appearances this year and that includes 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his 7 starts on the season. Wood has a 0.98 ERA his last 3 starts where he has struck out 20 and walked only 3. Wood has a 2.02 ERA at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Indians vs. Braves
Play: Over 7

On Tuesday night its a Battle of 2 tribes from different leagues. The Cleveland Indians travel down to Atlanta to take on the Braves in the Opening game of this interleague series at 7:10 eastern. This game features another of Our Powerful cutting edge totals systems. This one has won 15 of the last 16 times when playing the game to go over the total, as seen below. The Parameters of this system are not too hard to follow either. We simply want to play over the total for road dogs like the Cleveland Indians that come in off a home favored win at -140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs in the Win. Cleveland won on Sunday 3-1 as a home favorite at -170 to set this totals system in motion. The particularly impressive part of this system is that in averages over 12 runs per game in games where the total is 8 or less. The Indians as a team have played over the total 9 straight times on the road off a home win if they scored 4 or less runs and they average 5 runs per game vs left handers which is what they will see tonight in Alex Wood of Atlanta. The Braves come into this one off a solid road win at St. Louis on Sunday and we note that they have averaged 5 runs per game at home this season. The Braves are also the second highest scoring team in the League. They will face Young Indians Righty D. Salazar who makes just his second road start of the season. In his first road start Salazar lasted just a shade over 4 innings while allowing 4 runs. That type of Performance wont be good enough tonight against the vaunted Atlanta lineup. The Braves have gone over the total in 3 of their last 4 home games vs American League teams. Based on the System, Team angles and Pitching we will recommend to play this one over the total.

Freddy Wills

Cleveland Indians vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

Alex Wood has posted some strong numbers thus far this season and he has even stronger numbers of late with a 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts combined. He'll face the Cleveland Indians from the American League who have hit lefties well, but come into this game with a .224 average and 2.78 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 combined. I also love to fade an American League team that relies on their hitting in National League park against a pitcher they haven't faced before. You are likely to get a bargain on the odds and the fact that the Indians lose a hitter is a huge loss for their offense that is already starting to sputter. When you look at their 7 games they have played on the road without a DH this is evident as they have scored 0, 2, 4, 2, 2, 2 and 10 runs. In only one game did they have a huge game. The Braves throw a solid lefty out there and their bullpen is rested after a day off where they are actually 37-16 in their last 53 games. The Indians are 16-37 in their last 53 inter league games and throw a quality RHP of their own out there but...

Danny Salazar is raw and the Braves are 42-14 in their last 56 home games vs. RH starter. Even without Uggla and Heyward they will be just fine as the two have been known to struggle any way and the Braves keep winning. Salazar has impressive stuff, but his 25% HR/FB ratio is alarming and that's where the Braves should be able to get the win because their record when hitting a HR is excellent.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Andy Pettitte (3-0, 17 IP, 1.47 WHIP, 1.06 ERA)
Jonathan Niese (2-1, 19 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Mat Latos (2-1, 23 IP, 0.87 WHIP, 1.17 ER)
CJ Wilson (2-1, 19.1 IP, 1.55 WHIP, 1.86 ERA)
Clayton Kershaw (3-0, 24 IP, 0.71 WHIP, 0.38 ERA)
James Shields (2-1, 21 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Kevin Correia (1-2, 21 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 2.57 ERA)
Derek Holland (2-1, 19 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Jeff Locke (1-2, 12.1 IP, 2.35 WHIP, 8.76 ERA)
Roberto Hernandez (1-2, 14.1 IP, 1.81 WHIP, 7.53 ERA)

Jeffrey Brandes

Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Over 8

It's seven starts and counting for Eovaldi since his last win. He has not had much luck since beating the Nationals on July 12. In his last start, he gave up three runs (two earned) in a loss to Los Angeles. He has a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts.

In his first start off the disabled list, Ohlendorf took a no-decision after pitching 4 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on six hits against the Cubs on Wednesday at Wrigley Field.

Jim Feist

Oakland A's vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Oakland A's

The Athletics are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. the American League Central and need to win, in a tight pennant race battle with Texas. This is a strong offense, 12th in runs scored, 13th in on base percentage. The team is 6-2 in the last 8 starts made by Tommy Milone. Detroit goes with Justin Verlander, but he's been a money-burner with the Tigers are 2-5 in Verlander's last 7 starts, so grab the motivated (and talented) visitors.

Bruce Marshall

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Pick: Oakland Athletics

Although he has fared well in his career vs. the A's, there have been too many poor efforts this season by Detroit starter Justin Verlander to be overlooked. He's posted an un-Verlander-like 4.91 ERA over his lest three starts, and the Tiger bullpen was spotty in last night's 8-6 loss vs. Oakland. Although recently sent to AAA Sacramento before getting recalled, note that Oakland starter Tommy Milone has been solid against the Tigers, going 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three career starts, and the "s have won in six of his last eight starts.

Ken Thomson

Milwaukee +140

Simple Play for me.....Lohse has been solid.......Pirates may be tired after taxing series at Dodgers Stadium.....I'll take the Brewers who should hang in this one with Kyle Lohse on the hill over Locke and Buc's...no pressure on Brewer hitters which makes them respect authority....I'll take plus 140.....No Marte in Pirate line up is a big loss!

Will Rogers

Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Kansas City

While there is the minor concern that the Royals had to play a make up date Monday against Tampa Bay and the Twins had the day off, perhaps that's much ado about nothing. After all, Kansas City is just 2-9 with a day off this season anyway, plus they dominated the Rays 11-1. They just so happen to have dominated Minnesota all season as well.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Head to Head Domination - The Royals are 12-4 vs. the Twins this season, including a 5-2 record here at Target Field. They swept the last series here in Minnesota and followed that up by taking two of three at Kauffman Stadium earlier this month.

2. James Shields - The right-hander deserves far better than his 8-8 record in 27 starts this season. His ERA is 3.22 and his WHIP is 1.266. Things had begun to finally turn his way with back to back wins over Boston and Detroit, the top two offenses in baseball, before the bullpen blew a lead in his last start against the White Sox and he ended up not factoring into the decision. There have only been five starts all season where Shields has given up more than three earned runs.

3. X-Factor - The Twins are just 32-58 as a home underdog since the start of last season.

Bryan Power

Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Under

With a pitching matchup of Derek Holland vs. Hisashi Iwakuma Tuesday night, I see this Texas-Seattle game easily staying Under the total. Coming into this series, both teams had been struggling to score runs. In fact, the Mariners scored all of two runs in their entire previous series with the Angels.

Holland has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.230 WHIP in 26 starts this season. He is 7-1 on the road w/ an 11-2 TSR. Over his last three starts, he has not received a decision, but has a 2.35 ERA & 1.053 WHIP, allowing just five runs in 19 innings. That includes seven scoreless innings against these Mariners on August 16th. He allowed just two hits in that start. Also, Holland has a 3.04 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Seattle. Three of the last four times he's faced them he has not allowed an earned run.

Iwakuma is probably one of the best #2 starters in any rotation in all of baseball. In 27 starts, he has a 2.93 ERA and 1.006 WHIP. He went up against Holland on August 16th and was a hard luck loser, allowing just one run in seven innings. He shouldn't expect much held from his offense this time around either given that they average just 3.8 runs per game vs. lefties and were batting .220 collectively over the last seven games before this series got underway.

Art Aronson

Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Over

The visiting Brewers will send Kyle Lohse (9-8, 3.22 ERA) to hill. Lohse got the win in his last start, giving up three runs on six innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Lohse has had some tough luck on the road this season as he is just 3-5 with a 3.30 ERA. The right hander has been solid if not spectacular in recent outings, allowing three runs or more in three of his last four starts and should have a good chance to win here in this matchup against struggling lefty Jeff Locke(9-4, 3.02 ERA). The Pirates young left-hander is 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA over his past six starts and gave up three runs while walking four in just four innings of work in a Pirates 10-5 win over San Francisco his last time out. Locke has failed to make it past the fifth inning all of his last six starts. It looks to me as if the kid is struggling with his control mightily nearing the end of a long season. Locke has issued 14 walks over the last 18 innings this month. I expect Locke to continue his downward trend here as well as the Pirates to fight back offensively to protect their young starter. I strongly suggest taking a look at the “over.”

Dave Essler

Astros / White Sox Over 9

OK, here we've got two teams with simply no bullpen left after last night's fiasco, and exactly the same weather pattern. We can surely look at the starters. Paul Clemens has a WHIP of 1.46 and has pitched a grand total of 46 innings this season, and allowed 14 bombs. So, even if he IS decent, he's simply not going to pitch overly deep, one would think, which of course leaves the Astros bullpen which we all know is suspect, let alone used. Quintana CAN be good, but honestly we shouldn't need Houston to get too many here. He's given up 11 of his 17 home runs at home, and some of the Astros HAVE seen him before. He typically doesn't make it through the 7th inning, and that of course leaves the depleted White Sox bullpen to contend with. The Astros have scored eight or more runs in three of their last four games, so they're hitting the ball. Chicago has scored five or more in three of their last four games, so they're showing signs of life as well. And after last night, they've simply got to be pissed, so I do expect a decent lineup out of them tonight. O'Nora is behind the plate. In his last four games, there have been a minimum of ten runs scored, so he's on an over roll. As always, just too many ways this is another high scoring game, or at worst the White Sox get most (all) of them.