Wunderdog
Philadelphia at New York Mets
Pick: Philadelphia +126
The New York Mets have struggled all season, and the bright spot on the team had been the pitching of Matt Harvey. The Mets suffered a blow when it was revealed that there is a possibility Harvey faces Tommy John surgery and will be out through next season. That has to damage the psyche of a team that is already fragile. The Mets are already in a funk, having dropped five straight. The Phillies have finally come alive after playing themselves out of contention after the All-Star break. The Phillies have won seven of their last nine as their bats have come alive. Kyle Kendrick has done his best work within the division where the Phillies own a 12-5 mark in his last 17 starts. The Mets' lack of offense has been telling, as they are now 0-7 in their last seven games after plating 2 runs or less in their previous contest. Take Philadelphia.
Jeff Clement
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
Houston has Paul Clemens(4-4) ERA of 6.36 pitching against Jose Quintana(7-4) ERA of 3.67. Clemens hasn't pitched in a game since July 26th and is making his 1st major league start today while Quintana is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.30 and had 14 K's in his last 2 starts. Adam Dunn has hit 2 HR's and 5 RBI's in last 3 games and Houston's All-Star Jose Altuve is slumping batting 5 for 26 last 5 games. Chicago is 8-2 SU and Houston is 15-40 when facing lefthanders.
Sean Murphy
Miami vs. Washington
Pick: Miami
The Nationals have won five of their last six games but they're in a tough spot on Tuesday, returning home following a long, successful road trip, and facing a hungry Marlins club that's coming off a homestand it would rather forget.
Miami has gone just 3-6 in this series this season, but it's important to note that six of those nine meetings came back in April, when the Marlins were a completely different team confidence-wise. In their most recent series, Miami managed to take two of three games back in the second week of July. While the Fish remain an ugly 20-41 on the road this season, it's worth noting that 14 of those 20 victories have come in their last 32 road tilts.
Nate Eovaldi will take the ball for the Marlins on Tuesday. He's pitched better than his 2-4 record and 3.89 ERA would seem to indicate. That's largely due to the fact he's had two disastrous outings mixed in his 12 starts this season. His last ugly performance came on August 16th against San Francisco, but I really like the way he responded in his next start, giving up only two earned runs over seven innings, albeit in a losing effort, against the red hot Dodgers last week. The Marlins have held their own in Eovaldi's six road starts this season, going 3-3, and he's recorded a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 35 2/3 innings pitched away from home.
Ross Ohlendorf will counter for the Nationals. He's been sharp in two of his three spot starts with the Nationals, and earns another here. I'm still not sold on the veteran right-hander. Last time out, he was ripped for four earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings but was bailed out by his offense in an 11-6 win in Chicago (against the Cubs). He hasn't fared well against the Marlins over the last couple of years, allowing 14 hits and nine earned runs in eight innings pitched, spanning two starts - both losses as a member of the Pirates and Padres.
The Nationals bullpen should be put to work tonight, and that's not necessarily a good thing, as it continues to scuff its heels, posting a collective 3.71 ERA over the last five games. Meanwhile, the Marlins 'pen has been sharp over the course of the team's turnaround, and has held up well lately, recording a 2.70 ERA over their last five contests.
I'm not sure that this is the mismatch that most believe it to be.
Nick Parsons
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Under
I am a "situational" handicapper by heart. When it comes to baseball, starting pitching is also one of the main factors I'll take into consideration.
Kyle Lohse (9-8, 3.22 ERA)
Lohse is coming off a great outing vs. St. Louis on Thursday, giving up three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings, good enough to earn the 6-3 victory.
Lohse has given up seven earned runs over his last three starts spanning 20 frames of work.
Note that Lohse owns a respectable 3.30 ERA road record this season and a 2.45 ERA in two starts vs. the Bucs in 2013.
Jeff Locke (9-4, 3.01 ERA)
Locke lasted just four frames vs. the Giants on Thursday, giving up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out three in the no-decision.
The Pirates' southpaw has now served up 11 earned runs over just his last 6 2/3's innings of work.
Note that Locke is 4-2 with a 4.15 ERA at home this year.
The bottom line: Many of the "talking heads" out there have been quick to jump on Locke's performance of late. It's true that he's been on a bit of a downturn, but I don't think it's time to jump ship if you're a fan of the Pirates' hurler. Despite the recent poor numbers, note that Locke still owns a respectable 1.05 WHIP over 25 starts this year. He's enjoyed success vs. the Brewers this season as well, going 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA.
Two fantastic young pitchers facing off makes the "under" the play in this matchup.
Jack Jones
San Diego Padres +110
Ian Kennedy was traded from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the San Diego Padres before the deadline. In his first start against his former team tonight, there's no question that Kennedy wants this game more than any other he's ever had in his career.
Kennedy has been pitching very well of late for his new team. The right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts. I like his chances of shutting down his former team, which has lost four of six coming in.
The Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. San Diego is 4-1 in its last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Arizona is 1-4 in its last 5 games following a win. Bet the Padres Tuesday.
Steve Janus
New York Yankees -113
This will be the sixth meeting between these two teams in the last eight days. New York swept all 4 games at home before losing the opener in Toronto 2-5 last night. I fully expect the Yankees to bounce back and even the series behind veteran starter Andy Pettitte, who allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings of a 5-3 victory over Toronto last week. Pettitte will once again be opposed by J.A. Happ, who has a lifetime 5.46 ERA and 1.321 WHIP against the Yankees.
Adding big time value here is the fact that Pettitte is a dominant 40-14 after allowing 1 earned run or less in each of his two previous starts. New York is also 11-3 in Pettitte's last 14 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Toronto on the other hand is just 2-8 in their last 10 as home underdog and 1-5 in Happ's last 6 starts vs a team with a winning record.
Doug Upstone
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7
If you look at these pitcher's statistics, you'll see they are about as identical as it gets, and both very solid. I think the team that gets to 3 or 4 runs wins this ballgame. Play the under 7 tonight in Seattle.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -135
The best home team in baseball gets the call as my free play against a Cleveland club that has struggled on the road. The Indians are 5-16 in their last 21 road games versus a team with a winning record and 16-37 in their last 53 interleague road games. The Braves are 44-18 at home on the season and 54-20 in their last 74 at home dating back to last season. They are a ridiculous 72-34 in their last 106 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Alex Wood has been sensational for Atlanta. The Braves have won four of his last five starts, and he's allowed one earned run or none in each of his last four starts. Cleveland's Danny Salazar hasn't been nearly as sharp, as evidenced by the 4.24 ERA he's posted over his last three starts. Take Atlanta.
Jeff Alexander
Kansas City Royals -157
KC has owned the Twins. It has won 12 of 16 in the season series, including 4 straight in Minnesota. The Royals have won 10 of their last 14 on the road and are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Shields has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.34 ERA. The Royals are 12-4 in his last 16 starts, 7-1 in his last 8 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite. Shields' clubs have won 7 of his last 9 starts versus the Twins. The Twins are 1-5 in Correia's last 6 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Royals. He has a 6.75 ERA in 5 career starts versus Kansas City. Bet the Royals.
Bill Biles
Rangers / Mariners Under 7
The pitching match up is a very good one, so runs will be hard to come by in this contest. Derek Holland goes for Texas and he is 9-6 with a 2.95 ERA. He has a 1.67 ERA in his last four starts, and has been tough on the Mariners, going 2-0 with an 0.66 ERA in his last four outings against them. Holland has not allowed an earned run over 23 1/3 innings in three career starts at Safeco and won them all. The Mariners send out Hisashi Iwakuma who has held opponents to a .183 average with runners in scoring position. He also ranks in the AL's top 10 in wins, ERA, opponent batting average (.223) and innings (178). Iwakuma has won his last two starts, giving up four runs and 11 hits over 14 innings.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Tampa Bay opens this three-game series with the Angels looking to avoid a third consecutive loss after falling 11-1 at Kansas City on Monday in a makeup of a snowed-out game from May. The back-to-back losses have dropped the Rays two games behind Boston in the AL East but they remain percentage points up on the A’s for he No. 1 wild card spot, with both teams two games up on the Indians. The Angels, of course, are going nowhere at 58-71. Tampa Bay has dominated LA recently, as the Rays will go for a 13th win in 14 games against the Angels, although these teams are meeting for the first time in 2013.
Here’s why I like the Angels, despite Tampa Bay’s recent domination. Angels starters have a 1.27 ERA over the last five games but C.J. Wilson (13-6, 3.30 ERA) has been pitching well for a much longer period of time. He took a no decision last Tuesday in LA’s 4-1 loss to the Indians (in 14 innings), but pitched well (7.1 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER). Pitching well has been the norm for Wilson for quite awhile now, as he’s 9-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last 13 starts.
Getting the nod for Tampa Bay is the weak link in the team’s starting rotation, Roberto Hernandez (6-13, 4.97 ERA). He’s 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA in three starts this month and was used out of the bullpen this past Friday vs the Yankees (had a scoreless inning of relief). Hernandez could be making his last start, as Matt Moore is expected to return right after Labor Day. Hernandez has allowed 13 runs (12 earned) over 14.1 innings in his last three starts and on the season, has seen the Rays go just 9-14 in his 23 starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. METS -1½ +172 over Philadelphia
Philadelphia is hitting .232 against lefties this season. On the road, that mark is even worse. The Phillies putrid .219 batting average in August is the worst in the majors and they’ll face a good lefty here in Jonathon Niese. Niese missed almost two months with a partial tear of his rotator cuff, yet he has returned in top form. All three of his starts since returning have been decent but his last two have been outstanding. In 13 innings over his past two starts, Niese has struck out 18 batters while allowing a combined two runs. Niese is healthy and he’s fresh. While other pitchers labor to the finish line after a long season with 150+ innings and 30—35 starts, Niese has only logged 96 innings and 17 starts. Niese has dominated the Phillies in the past, including one start this year when he was pitching with shoulder issues. Now feeling 100% better, chances are he dominates them again.
Kyle Kendrick threw 159 innings all of last season. He’s already thrown 160 innings this year. Only once in his seven major league seasons has Kendrick surpassed the 160 inning plateau. That came in 2010 in which Kendrick posted a 5.89 ERA in his final six starts of the season. We’re seeing the signs of fatigue now that plagued him back in 2010. Over his last five starts, Kendrick is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.93. Kendrick’s skills look like those of a back-end starter; nothing more. He has excellent control but a lack of strikeouts continues to hamper his long-term outlook. There’s not much more than meets the eye with Kendrick. Without a big strikeout pitch or plus velocity (his sinker tops out at 90 mph), there’s lots of hard contact against him. A 25% line-drive rate over his past seven starts assures us that Kendrick is hanging on by a thread. He’s in line for another blow-up and with this nice take-back on the Mets spotting 1½-runs, the risk is worth the reward, as this ticket has a very good chance of cashing.
San Francisco +109 over COLORADO
Yusmeiro Petit was a young pitcher on the rise a few years ago. He showed flashes with Arizona of becoming an elite command artist. He posted elite skills with them down the stretch of 2008 at the age of 23. Now at the age of 28 and spending the better part of the past eight years in the minors, Petit has overpaid his dues. He's no longer a prospect but he does bear watching because of his outstanding control and his ability to strikeout hitters. At Triple-AAA Fresno this season, Petit walked just 13 batters in 88 frames while whiffing 91. He was called up to face Cincinnati on July 23 and struck out seven in 5.1 innings and didn’t walk anyone, while allowing just two runs. If Barry Zito wasn’t being paid 20M this season, Petit would have been up long ago. The injury to Matt Cain has opened a door for him once again. Petit has been given chances before and has never been able to stick in the majors but there is no denying he has the skills to do well and has a better chance of success here than his counterpart Chad Bettis.
Bettis does not deserve to be favored over anyone. In five starts since being called up, Bettis is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA but his xERA over his five starts is 5.66. Four of his five starts have come on the road so he hasn’t felt the effects of this park yet. He will. In 24 innings, Bettis has walked 13 and struck out 13. He’s also given up 27 hits and when you combine that with the number of walks he’s issued, the result is a troublesome 1.67 WHIP. The Giants are loaded with patient hitters that can work the count and that will come into play here, as Bettis is constantly falling behind. It may also surprise you to learn that the Giants have been one the NL’s best offensive teams on the road with a .262 average, which is third in the NL behind St. Louis and the Dodgers. Also noteworthy is that the Giants have struck out 437 times on the road, which is the lowest strikeout total in the NL and second lowest in the entire league. All of this spells trouble for the Chad Bettis and his minor-league stuff. Bettis is pitching at this level only because the Rockies have little else in quality alternatives. Pencil us in.
Milwaukee +124 over PITTSBURGH
Jeff Locke is 9-4 with a 3.01 ERA, which is rather remarkable when you consider that he wasn't even in the Pirates plans this past spring. He ranks among the league leaders in ERA and he even earned a spot on the All-Star roster. What Locke’s surface stats don’t tell you is that he's performed way above his ability. Locke’s calling card as a prospect and 2nd round draft choice was command and control. But he averaged four walks a game in July and that has risen to six a game in August. Locke's 83% strand rate and 22% hit rate in the first half were both on the extreme side of lucky but those rates have normalized and the results have told the real story of his pedestrian skills. Over his last five starts, Locke has pitched to a 7.77 ERA and a WHIP of 2.36. Over his last 22 innings, he’s walked 15 batters. His underlying numbers told us he was a fluke and we’ve been passing that information over to you for weeks. Locke’s surface starts and W/L record make him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game and an almost automatic fade. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are 7th in the majors against lefties with a .265 team batting average.
Milwaukee continues to play solid ball and they are without question the best 16 games under .500 team in a long time. The Brewers just completed 10 straight against the Reds and the Cardinals and they went a respectable 5-5. We can assure you that both those contenders were not sad to see the Brewers off. Prior to that, Milwaukee had won 15 of its past 27 games so this team has been playing solid for well over a month. Kyle Lohse continues to do his thing month after month and year after year. He’s 9-8 with a 3.22 ERA. He has outstanding control, a respectable 1.15 WHIP and solid numbers right across the board. When he pitches, the Brewers usually win. In fact, Milwaukee is 12-4 over Lohse’s past 16 starts. Lohse continues to give the Brewers quality innings and offers up much more value as a pooch here than Locke does as the chalk.
Big Kat Sports
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Take: Milwaukee Brewers +140
Here are a few trends that have us leaning towards the Brewers tonight on the road in Pittsburgh:
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Brewers are 6-1 in Lohse’s last 7 starts.
Brewers are 5-1 in Lohse’s last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Brewers are 20-8 in their last 28 Tuesday games.
Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Pirates are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Tonight’s play is a total play against Pirates rookie Jeff Locke, who has really struggled here in the second half. After being named an All-Star, Locke in winless in his last 6 starts and in three of those he has failed to pitch into the fourth inning. He has been worse that that over his last 2 starts, allowing 11 runs and 22 base runners in just 6.2 innings pitched. Kyle Lohse has been the exact opposite for the Brew Crew. He is 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA since the break and has been dominant in his career vs. the Pirates, posting a 9-2 record with a 3.35 ERA in 18 starts. Look for the Brewers to get the road win at a nice plus price tonight in Pittsburgh.
Teddy Covers
Cincinnati at St. Louis
Play: Over
My clients and I cashed a winner with the Reds – Cardinals Over last night; an 8-6 Slugfest. And there’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result today. Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:
“We’ve got excellent weather conditions for a Slugfest – hazy, hot and humid with the wind blowing out. We’ve got a series history that has seen the winning team score eight runs or more in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, every one of them cashing an Over ticket. We’ve got a pair of bullpens that have both struggled against the opposing lineup this year. And we’ve got two capable offenses. The Cards have scored six or more runs in six of their last nine. Cinci has cashed only two Unders in their last nine games while averaging five runs per game during that span. Expect plenty of ‘crooked’ numbers on the scoreboard tonight.”
The pitching matchup tonight has given us a lower total than the one we had yesterday. But Mat Latos has a 6.28 career ERA in ten previous starts against the Cardinals and an 8.04 ERA in six previous career starts here at Busch Stadium. Meanwhile, the Cardinals Joe Kelly is coming off the two highest pitch count games of his entire big league career; primed for some regression this evening. And let’s not forget to mention that home plate umpire Bruce Dreckman has been an Over machine for months, 8-2 to the Over in his last ten games calling balls and strikes, with seven of those games producing ten runs or more.
Craig Davis
Tuesday's free play winner is the Yankees over the Blue Jays.
Last night the Yanks had Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez in the lineup together for the first time in a long time, but it didn't seem to help as the offense could only muster two runs.
I see a big change for the better tonight against J.A. Happ, Toronto's starter.
Andy Pettitte takes the hill tonight for the Bombers and will try to continue his dominance against the Blue Jays in order to keep his team in the running for the Wild Card.
The veteran lefty has posted a 6-1 record and a 3.04 ERA over his last eight starts against the Blue Jays... the best numbers against any team in baseball. In fact, he's been just as good on the road IN Toronto, too, posting a 5-1 record with a 2.91 ERA his last seven trips there.
But the Yanks simply have to get the bats going... and I believe they will.
They've scored just over two runs per game while dropping three of their last four games after dominating with the bats over a 10-game stretch that saw them win eight of those 10.
The Blue Jays counter with J.A. Happ, who lost to these same Yankees his last time out. He allowed four runs (and five walks) over 5+ innings in a 5-3 loss to Pettitte and the Yanks.
I believe it's all New York tonight... take the Yankees as your free play of the day.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES