Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday August, 28

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
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When the Cardinals send Jake Westbrook to the mound against the Pirates in Game Two of this three game series Tuesday night, St. Louis will do so knowing Westbrook is 0-4 with a 6.06 ERA in his career team starts in Pittsburgh. He is also in soft KW form with 7 strikeouts and 7 walks in his last three starts, all since signing a multi-million contract extension. With his counterpart, James McDonald, 4-2 in his last six home team starts, look for McDonald to improve to 2-0 at home in his career against the Red Birds here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1.5
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The Angels qualify in a nice system that has cashed 15 of 18 times, though they are too heavy for unit rated status they have J. Weaver on the mound and he will facing a Boston Lineup that had tough times hitting then with all the super stars in it. Weaver has allowed just 4 earned runs in 28 home innings against Boston. Buchholz for Boston allowed 7 runs in 5 innings earlier on this year vs the Angels. The Angels average 5 runs and hit better in night games and have scored 5 runs per game the past week. They have a solid 2.79 Home bullpen era as well. For the system we note that home favorites of -140 or more are 15-3 off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs,vs an opponent off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs. With Boston having dropped 3 of 4 this season on the road when the total is 7 or less we will back the angels in this one.

Chris ElliottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. San Diego
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The Atlanta Braves (73-56) continue their road trip Monday against the San Diego Padres (60-70) in game two of this series. The Padres won game one 3-0 behind a solid outing from prospect Casey Kelly.
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Kris Medlen will toe the rubber for the Braves with a record of 5-1, 1.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 43 appearances this season. In 5 starts since coming out of the bullpen on July 31 he has been awesome with a record of 4-0 and spectacular ERA of 0.83! 4 of his 5 starts have gone "Under" the total.
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Undrafted 25 year old rookie LHP Andrew Werner will get his second big league start in this game. He won his first start last week, a 4-2 victory at home against Pittsburgh. In 22 starts between "AA" and "AAA" this season, he has a record of 5-10 and 3.70 ERA.
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The Braves have been consistent at cashing the "Under" this season thanks in large part to their excellent pitching staff. Their team ERA of 3.62 is 6th best in MLB. For the Braves, the "Under" has cashed 67-58 overall, 32-29 on the road, 49-40 at night, 29-12 against teams with losing records and a RED HOT 19-7 in August!
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The Padres have cashed the "Under" 32-30 at home, 8-5 as a home dog of +125 to +150 and 28-25 when the total is 7 or less.
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The two teams have met 5 times this season with all 5 games going "Under" the total. Medlen has been the hottest starter in MLB in August. The Braves are notorious for struggling against young pitchers they have never seen before as evidenced by yesterday getting shut out by Casey Kelly and crew.
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Look for a tight scoring, close knit affair in this game as both teams are playing great baseball. Take the "Under" to win this game!

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Over 9
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Philadelphia is a good offensive park and a pair of starters are on the mound with ERAs over 4.7 their last three starts. The Mets go with lefty Chris Young, who has below average stuff with a 3-7 record and a 4.33 ERA. His last three starts he's 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA. He has won just one of his last nine starts and posted a 4.94 ERA over that stretch. The Phillies go with Vance Worley and the over is 5-1 in Worley's last 6 starts vs. the Mets. When these teams meet the over is 25-4-2 in the last 31 meetings, including 12-3-1 over the total in the last 16 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the Mets/Phillies over the total.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
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The Pirates are fading badly, and James McDonald sure isn't stopper material right now. Look for the bad run to continue tonight, as Jake Westbrook and the Cardinals grab another win.

JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays + 110
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Tuesday grabs the AFR call....These TB Rays (70-58) have dropped three straight for the first time in 2 months & A Beltran has been on fire .520 BA to sink the Rays... 6-5 loser last night as they collapse late... TONIGHT THE RAYS "Shields" cools of Adrian.... Beltran checks in @ 9/34 last 43 AB'S... Shields also checks in @ 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA over his last five starts . Play The Rays

ParlayJoe

Atlanta Braves -152

The Braves are 8-0 in Medlens last 8 road starts and are 6-0 in Medlens last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Enough for us to be all over the Braves today. Take the Braves as your Free pick of the day from ParlayJoe.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. New York
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The Yankees took a two run lead into the 9th inning yesterday, only to see the Blue Jays put up three runs and take the lead 7-6. New York was able to tie the game, however they went on to lose in extra-innings. The good news for New York is, tonight they face struggling right-hander Rickey Romero.
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Romero (8-11, 5.63 ERA) left his last start early in the sixth inning, after allowing five runs on seven hits, while walking eight (yeah, that's right ..EIGHT) in a 5-3 loss to the Tigers. Over the past few months, Romero has simply been unable to throw pitches for strikes. Romero is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in two starts against New York this season.
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The Yankees will counter with Phil Hughes, who is coming off a loss his last time out. Hughes (12-11, 4.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits, surrendering a home run and walking a pair against the White Sox, losing 2-1 in his last start. Prior to that he went seven innings, allowing four runs on four hits, including a home run, in a 6-4 home victory over the Red Sox.
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Hughes will have to be careful with Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays slugger is hitting .400 with four doubles and a home run against Hughes in 20 career at bats.
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The Blue Jays also welcome back Adam Lind, as another big bat in the lineup after missing time due to injury. With Romero on the mound for Toronto, Hughes will have plenty of room for error. I expect this game to be a real slugfest though.

Hollywood Sports
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Red Sox at Angels
Prediction: Under
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Los Angeles (66-62) returns home after their 5-2 loss at Detroit on Sunday -- and they have played a decisive 34-15-2 Under the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They send out Weaver here who is enjoying an outstanding season given his 16-3 record along with a sizzling 2.74 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Weaver has been even better at home this year where he sports a 2.36 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and .171 opponent's batting average. The Under is 32-13-6 in the Angels' last 51 home games with Weaver on the mound. The Under is also 27-9-3 in Los Angeles' last 39 games with Weaver pitching as a big favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. Furthermore, the Under is 3-0-1 in the Angels' last 4 home games hosting the Red Sox with Weaver making the start. Boston (62-67) enters this series coming off a 5-1 win versus Kansas City -- and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Red Sox have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They counter with Buchholz who is 11-4 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP -- but he has been better away from Fenway Park with his 1.22 WHIP and .245 opponent's batting average on the road as compared to his 1.41 WHIP and .286 opponent's batting average when at home. Boston has played 16 of their last 22 road games with Buchholz on the bump. The Red Sox have also played 9 of their last 12 road games with Buchholz pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers had newly acquired Josh Beckett on the mound last night and he didn't pitch that poorly going 5 2/3 innings, three runs on seven hits, but with no offense from the Dodgers and the pen opening the flood gate the Dodgers lost 10-0. The Dodgers have 11 game winner Chris Capuano on the mound who has pitched three times this year against Colorado allowing just seven earned runs in those three starts. Look for another gem from Capuano against the Rockies and for the Dodger bats to explode. Play LA Dodgers

Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Reds vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati at Arizona With Jonny Cueto matching up with Wade Miley here tonight in Arizona makes for a highly recommended play on the under in this spot here. First off Cueto has been super sharp in his last 3 starts allowing just 4 runs and 11 hits in 21 innings pitched resulting in a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP. While Miley has looked impressive as of late allowing only 1 run in his last 14 innings pitched. So as you can see I feel the odds makers are a bit off on the total posted here. Under 8 runs the play here

Joseph D'AmicoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants have won 14 of their L19 road games. They have taken 5 of the 6 meetings over Houston this season. Houston is the worst team in Baseball at 40-88, losing 9 of their L11 overall, and 15 of the L18 games played at home. Since losing Cabrera to suspension, the Giants haven't missed a step, going 7-4. Posey, Pagan, Scutaro, and Pence have picked up the slack and are all contributing. Matt Cain gets the start here. The RH is 13-5 with a 2.83 ERA this year, winning three straight, and allowing a mere four runs in 22 1/2 IP. Cain has beaten Houston twice at home this season, including a perfect game back in July. He faces an Astros team that is laughable at 5-20 their L25 outings, scoring 5 or more runs just four times during that span. The offense ranks 24th or worse in almost every offensive category. Bud Norris is throwing today. The RH is 5-11 with an ERA of 5.19 this season and hasn't won since may 21st, going 0-10 in his 14 starts since. The Giants are 5-1 their 6 games played on the road, 14-2 their L16 games played vs. teams with a winning percentage under .400, and 8-3 in Cain's L11 starts on the road. The Astros are 8-21 their L29 games played at home, 9-42 their L51 games played against RH starters, and 3-13 in Norris' L16 overall starts. Take san Francisco.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA -1½ +146 over N.Y. Mets

The Mets last seven games have come against the inept pitching staffs of the Astros and Rockies. NY scored two or less in six of those games and scored three runs in the other game. New York has scored a paltry 15 runs over their past nine games.

Chris Young pitching at this venue is a recipe for disaster. Young’s extreme fly ball tendency (58%), low strikeout rate and high xERA of 5.17 all indicate trouble and he’ll now face a streaking Phillies club that has won five in a row, seven of nine and just swept the Nationals.

Vance Worley’s 6-9 record is no match for last year's 11-3 full season record but he's very much the same pitcher. In fact, he’s inducing a lot more grounders but an unlucky and low 69% strand rate has his ERA inflated. Facing a Mets team that has fallen off the map since the all-star break and whose offense is scoring less than a pro soccer team, Worley and the Phillies should expect this run to be extended here. Expect a crooked number against Chris Young.

Oakland -114 over CLEVELAND

Dead team playing. That’s about the only way to describe the Indians these days, as they come to the park everyday looking more lifeless than the day before. The Tribe was shutout in the opener last night 3-0. They’ve failed to score in 36 of their past 39 innings. They’ve lost 11 of 12 and they’re hitting a league worst .201 against lefties since the break while hitting a puny .214 over their past dozen games. Cleveland players have struck out 10 times per game in three of their past four contests. They haven’t won two games in a row since July 22-23 and they’re 0-8-1 in their past nine series.

By contrast, the A’s are heating up again. They’ve now won nine of 11 and that includes a 4-0 mark over Cleveland during this current run.

Tommy Milone is a lefty facing an Indians team that has 14 wins in 41 games this season against southpaws. Milone has just 30 walks all year in 153 innings meaning the Indians are going to have to hit their way on base. With the bases empty, Milone has one of the best BAA in the game at .176. He’s not as good out of the stretch but he’s improved with runners on base each passing month. No matter how you cut it, this is a small spot for a fighting team facing one that has tossed in the towel.

Seattle +124 over MINNESOTA

The more we see of Hisashi Iwakuma, the more we like him. What most will see is his 5.63 road ERA and 4-3 overall record with a 3.64 ERA. On June 20th, Iwakuma’s ERA was 5.06. He’s trimmed almost 1½-runs off his ERA since then and the results come with full skills support. Iwakuma has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. On July 30, he struck out 13 in a game. His xERA since joining the Mariners rotation is 3.16. This is a talented pitcher with soaring confidence.

Scott Diamond is 10-5 with an ERA of 3.04, thus creating this overlay. Diamond's command of the strike zone and his groundball lean are highlights of a solid profile but his pedestrian strikeout rate turns him into a pedestrian starter and the league is catching on. He’s allowed 37 hits over his past 29 frames and the Twins have lost his last three starts. In Seattle two starts back, Diamond allowed nine hits in six frames. His low ERA has held up due to a high strand percentage of 80%. Once that normalizes, it will not hold up.

Since losing their first meeting this season with the Twins, the Mariners have outscored Minnesota 26-8 while winning the next six. Minnesota has just two wins over its last 13 games while the Mariners have won nine of 13. Current form of both the starters and teams favor the M’s but price does not reflect that, giving us plenty of incentive to step in.He’s trimmed almost 1½-runs off his ERA since then and the results come with full skills support. Iwakuma has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. On July 30, he struck out 13 in a game. His xERA since joining the Mariners rotation is 3.16. This is a talented pitcher with soaring confidence.

Scott Diamond is 10-5 with an ERA of 3.04, thus creating this overlay. Diamond's command of the strike zone and his groundball lean are highlights of a solid profile but his pedestrian strikeout rate turns him into a pedestrian starter and the league is catching on. He’s allowed 37 hits over his past 29 frames and the Twins have lost his last three starts. In Seattle two starts back, Diamond allowed nine hits in six frames. His low ERA has held up due to a high strand percentage of 80%. Once that normalizes, it will not hold up.

Since losing their first meeting this season with the Twins, the Mariners have outscored Minnesota 26-8 while winning the next six. Minnesota has just two wins over its last 13 games while the Mariners have won nine of 13. Current form of both the starters and teams favor the M’s but price does not reflect that, giving us plenty of incentive to step in.

Jeff Scott Sports
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4 UNIT PLAY
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Cleveland/ Oakland Under 8: Cleveland is a team with many offensive problems right now as they come in averaging just 2 rpg in their last 10 games and they have hit just .207 over that stretch as well. The Indians has also struggled vs lefties at home, hitting just .211 and scoring just 3.3 rp/9 off of them at home. All of that bodes well for Tommy Milone, who has struggled on the road with a 5.77 ERA on the year. He has pitched better of late on the road with a 3.78 ERA in his last 4 away from home. The Oakland offense has not been that good of late averaging 3.4 rpg in their last 5 games, but really when your staff has an ERA of 2.45 over that stretch you don't need to be all that good offensively. Oakland has gone 4-1 in those last 5 games and just 5.8 rpg have been scored. The A's offense will take on Zach McCallister, who has pitched very well at home with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, so I don't expect allot of runs from the A's in this one. These two starters faced each other earlier in the month and 10 runs were scored in that game, but I expect them to make the adjustments vs a couple of struggling offenses. Look for no more than 6 runs in this one.
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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PHILADELPHIA -140 over NY Mets: I guess all it took for the Phils to start winning was to get rid of Victorino and Pence. LOL When I did my preview in the beginning of the year I felt that even with the injuries to the big players that the Phils would be fine, because of their awesome farm system. It didn't happen as planned earlier in the year, but youngsters Frandsen and Kratz are playing well and now with Utley and Howard starting to turn it on the Phils are winning. I expect them to finish the season strong as they look to build momentum for next year. They will not roll over because they are out of the playoffs. The Phils are off an excellent week in which they took 2 of 3 from the Reds and then swept the Nats. Now they get to take on a Mets team that is really struggling, winning just 6 of their last 20 games, with two of those wins coming vs lowly Houston. The Mets are having a hard time scoring of late as they have put up 2 runs or less in 8 of their last 9 games and it may not get much better in this series vs a Philadelphia team that has a 2.87 ERA in their last 10 games. Vance Worley has struggled this year and is just 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA, but he is off an impressive start vs the Reds and should be able to keep the Met bats quiet tonight. Chris Young has had 2 solid outings in a row, but is still 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Mets have given him just 2 total runs in his last 3 starts. Both teams are out of the playoff race, but Philly hasn't stopped playing hard while the Mets have and that gives the Phils a huge edge here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Philadelphia is 16-5 in the first game of a home series if they are off two wins in a row in which they never trailed.
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Atlanta -155 over SAN DIEGO: The Best pitcher on the Braves staff these days is... Kris Medlen. This kid has been awesome since being put in the rotation as he is 5-0 with an 0.86 ERA in his 5 starts. One of those starts was a complete game 6-0 shutout over these Padres. Kris is 2-0 with an 0.67 ERA in two road starts and now he gets to face a San Diego squad that struggles to score in their own park, especially vs righties. The Padres average 3.5 rpg and hit .234 overall at home but vs righties they have averaged 3.3 rp/9 innings and have hit just .227. Not going to get it done vs Medlen tonight, who hasn't allowed more than 1 ER in any of his 5 starts. Andrew Werner had a great 1st career start in which he allowed just 2 ER's vs Pittsburgh, but this Braves team can hit and will be angry after getting shutout last night. Atlanta scores 4.6 rpg on the road and 4.3 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, plus they have averaged a very solid 6.6 rpg in Medlen's 5 starts this year. Look for the Braves offense to wake up here and for Kris Medlen to have another solid outing as Atlanta bounces back from last night's tough loss.
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Cincinnati/ Arizona Under 8: Last night just 5 runs were score and with much weaker pitching than we will see tonight. Johnny Cueto has been awesome for the reds this year with a 2.46 ERA overall and a 2.64 ERA on the road. He did have a couple of shaky outings, but has bounced back with a solid 1.71 ERA and an 0.76 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Johnny has also pitched well vs the D-Backs in hs career, posting a 1.45 ERA in 5 career starts vs them and in an earlier start vs them this year he allowed 0 ER's in 6 innings of work. Jphnny is catching the D-Backs at the right time for a good outing, as Arizona comes in averaging just 2.9 rpg in their last 8 games (all at home) and have scored more than 3 runs in 2 of those 8 games. I see that trend continuing here. Wade Miley has been Arizona's most consistent starter and he comes in with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.78 ERA at home. Wade has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and he should have another good outing vs a Reds team that scores just 4 rpg on the road and has put up just 3 runs in each of their last 3 away from home. Johnny's road starts have averaged just 5.8 rpg and his night starts have aveaged just 6.7 rpg. Wade's home starts have averaged 8.4 rpg, but his last 3 at home have averaged just 6 rpg, while his night starts have put up 7.5 rpg. This has the makings of a classic pitcher's duel.
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POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (46-24 +14.92 UNITS)
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Since 2010 the Brewers are 47-12 as a favorite of 140+ vs a divisional team that is below them in the standings. Play on Milwaukee -167 over Chicago
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Since 2010 the Under is 29-9 in a Phils game when they did not allow a walk in their last game and had less than 13 hits. Play on Philadelphia/ New York Under 8.5