Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday August, 28

Art AronsonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Pick: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds have been lining pockets of Under bettors so far in September. Expect that to change today.
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Leake gave up six runs in 2.3 innings last start. He has a 5.69 ERA in 15 home starts. Not good. He's 1-3 against Pittsburgh, most recently giving up two HRs and four runs in six innings.
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Correia did pitch well in his last start. His 4.81 road ERA is less than stellar, however. The Over is 7-3-2 in Correia's 12 starts in the series.
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The Reds recent Under Run is causing many to go below the total and that is putting the line value the other way. Go Over.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. Milwaukee
Pick: AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After sweeping the Mets in New York over the weekend, the Braves lost the opener of their series with the Brewers last night. They trail the Nationals by six and a half games in the National League East so while catching Washington may be out of the question, Atlanta still has a hold on one of the two Wild Card spots in the National League. The Braves are 6.5 games ahead of the Dodgers, the nearest team on the outside, so the playoffs are looking good but there is no letting up. Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game and it sends Tim Hudson to the hill tonight. He has been pretty up and down of late but he is coming off seven shutout innings against the Rockies and that should carry forward. He has a 3.14 ERA on the road in 10 starts and he is 6-1 while the Braves are 7-1 in his last eight road starts. Going back to the poor run production from last night, the Braves are 40-19 in Hudson's last 59 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee has been red hot at home as the win last night was its seventh straight at Miller Park and since this winning streak started, the Brewers are 16-5 in their last 21 games overall so they certainly have not quit. The starting pitching has had a tough run of it though with a 5.20 ERA over the last 10 games and Marco Estrada is grouped into that. He is coming off a rough outing where he allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings against the Marlins and facing the Braves is not the best situation to turn that around as he has an 8.73 ERA in two career starts against them. Milwaukee is 1-8 in Estrada's last nine starts as an underdog.

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas welcomes Cleveland to town after the Indians lost three of four games to the Twins. Matt Harrison will start for the Rangers after he got a few extra days off in preparation for this outing. He is 15-9 with a 3.37 ERA in 27 starts this season. Harrison is 5-4 with a 3.68 ERA in 11 starts at home. The southpaw beat Cleveland at home last year after allowing 3 runs and seven hits in five innings. Cleveland is 14-31 against left-handed starters while hitting just .230 in those games. The Texas bullpen is 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 16 saves in 19 chances.
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Ubaldo Jimenez gets his third crack at the Rangers this season. He lost to Texas at home back on August 31st after allowing 4 runs and eight hits in just over five innings. Jimenez is 4-10 with a 7.14 ERA in 16 road starts. The problem for him has been his 52 walks in 87 innings. Jimenez allowed 5 runs and seven hits when he pitched in Arlington last season. Texas is 43-25 at home where they are hitting .288 as a unit. Cleveland's bullpen is 7-7 with an ERA over 4.50 on the road. Texas has won seven of their last nine games at home against Cleveland, and we expect them to win by at least 2 runs in this game on Tuesday night.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas is 11-2 off a shutout loss with every win by more than a run. In the first game off a series Texas is 24-4 with 23 wins by more than a run if they are off a loss. Harrison has a much better home era at 3.37 than Jimenez has on the road at 7.14. Texas averages 5.6 runs per game here at home Cleveland fits a 2-15 system that plays against certain road dogs off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs in games where teams scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent off a loss. With all the statistical data, A pitching advantage and a Hungry motivated Texas team, we will back the Rangers to make Texas toast out of the Indians tonight. Take Texas on the run line.

Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers -134
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The Dodgers will look to their ace Clayton Kershaw to deliver a big time performance tonight against the Diamondbacks. Kershaw was originally scheduled to start on Sunday against the Giants, but was scratched with an inflamed right him joint. However, he is expected to be close to a 100% and that is good enough for me. Kershaw is 5-2 with a 1.97 ERA over his last eight starts.
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Kershaw has had a lot of success against Arizona. He is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA over 13 starts. The Dodgers are 23-8 in Kershaw's last 31 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Dodgers lost on Sunday to the Giants 0-4 and have lost 4 of 5 overall. When this team needs a win, Kershaw usually delivers. Los Angeles is in his last 28 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Play: St. Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals are 15-6 in their last 21 vs. the National League West and go with ace Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals are 29-14 in Wainwright's last 43 starts vs. a team with a losing record. This St. Louis offense is potent, third in baseball in runs scored and tops in on base percentage. That OBP will be key here as they face San Diego starter Edinson Volquez (9-10, 4.27 ERA), who has walked 94 in 160 innings. Volquez is 1-4 in his career against St. Louis with a 5.59 ERA, walking 23 in 38+ innings. And the Cardinals are 70-27 in the last 97 meetings. Play the Cardinals!

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington +105 over N.Y. METS
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Jordan Zimmerman had a bit of a rough stretch in late August and early September but give him a break, as he’s been as consistent as any pitcher in the majors for two years running. He had a very encouraging outing in his last start when he struck out nine in seven innings and appears to be back in form. Zimmerman has the league’s best road ERA at 2.15. He’s also 3-0 against the Mets this season with a 1.50 ERA. Zimmerman faces a Mets’ team that has scored three or fewer runs at home in 11 straight games.
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Mets are favored here because 18-game winner R.A. Dickey is on the hill. After picking up his 18th win in St. Louis last week, all that the local press wanted to discuss was the possibility of him winning 20 games. It’s definitely become a distraction. Dickey allowed five runs in six innings of a 5-2 home loss to the Nationals on July 24.
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The Nats have won 11 of 15 games against New York this season, including six in a row at Citi Field. The Mets have lost 20 of 24 at home and there’s nothing suggesting they should be favored here.
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BOSTON +119 over N.Y. Yankees
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It’s been a glum season for the Red Sox. They’re currently on one of the worst runs in their storied history with nine losses in their past 10 games and 25 losses in their last 35 games. They don’t care about much these days but what they do care about is making life miserable for this despised rival. This is Boston’s World Series. For the first time all year they get a chance to shine in the spotlight. Sweeping this series or even winning two out of three will wash away a lot of bad press and keep the fans from booing them off the field. This is a Bosox team that has grossly underachieved. Maybe, they can ease the pain of this disappointing season here.
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Of course, the Yanks want to win as badly or more. They’re fighting for their playoff lives and can’t afford to lose too many more games with both Baltimore and Tampa breathing down their necks. However, they’re not playing so well either with 12 losses in their past 19 games, not to mention a whole slew of injuries.
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With Jon Lester up against Hiroki Kuroda, with a packed house on hand, with a chance to do some damage to New York, expect the healthy Red Sox to play some ball for the first time in weeks.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Play: St Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On Monday St. Louis scored two in the top of the second, but that lead was short lived as they gave up two in the bottom of the second, two in the bottom of the third, two in the bottom of the fourth, two in the bottom of the seventh and three in the bottom of the eighth to lose 11-3. St. Louis also lost Berkman for the year for sure now and continue to struggle on the road as they are under .500 away from St. Louis. St. Louis has 13 game winner Adam Wainwright on the mound Tuesday which is a good sign as Wainwright in his only start against the Padres threw a complete game shutout where he allowed just four hits while striking out nine. Look for a similar performance by Wainwright on Tuesday as the Cardinals get back to winning. Play St. Louis

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves -113
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The Braves, winners of 5 of 6 overall and 7 of their last 8 versus Milwaukee, have the edge on the mound tonight with Hudson.
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The right-hander is 14-5 (18-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.59 in 24 starts this season. He's 6-1 (8-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.14 in 10 road starts. The Braves are 25-9 in Hudson's last 34 starts as a favorite.
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Milwaukee's Estrada is just 2-6 (8-11 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.17 in 19 starts this season. He's been better at home where he is 1-2 (7-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.56, but these numbers still fall short of what Hudson has been able to do on the road. The Brewers are 1-8 in Estrada's last 9 starts as an underdog. Bet the Braves.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals +104
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The Washington Nationals (87-54) should not be an underdog to the New York Mets (65-76) Tuesday. I'll gladly side with the value and back the league's best team at an excellent price tonight.
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Washington has won 10 of its last 13 games, showing no signs of slowing down as it tries to earn home-field advantage throughout the postseason. New York has lost four straight while scoring a combined six runs in the process. The Mets have clearly packed it in already.
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Jordan Zimmerman remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The right-hander is 10-8 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 28 starts this season, and 7-5 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 14 road starts. Zimmerman is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Mets as well.
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The Nationals are 8-1 in Zimmermann's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 41-17 in its last 58 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Mets are 5-21 in their last 26 home games. New York is 3-12 in its last 15 games as a home favorite. Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers -134
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The Dodgers will look to their ace Clayton Kershaw to deliver a big time performance tonight against the Diamondbacks. Kershaw was originally scheduled to start on Sunday against the Giants, but was scratched with an inflamed right him joint. However, he is expected to be close to a 100% and that is good enough for me. Kershaw is 5-2 with a 1.97 ERA over his last eight starts.
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Kershaw has had a lot of success against Arizona. He is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA over 13 starts. The Dodgers are 23-8 in Kershaw's last 31 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Dodgers lost on Sunday to the Giants 0-4 and have lost 4 of 5 overall. When this team needs a win, Kershaw usually delivers. Los Angeles is 21-7 in his last 28 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox -103FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We rode CWS to the Winner's circle yesterday and are on them again tonight! At first glance, the recent consistency of Fister is more impressive than Peavy, who is 0-5 4.98 ERA wince the ASB, when not facing Minnesota. That includes a 0-2 record with a 6.92 ERA vs. Detroit. The combination of team momentum, the psychology of this match up, and the home field overwhelm the pitching matchup. Since sweeping CWS 2 weekends ago, Detroit has gone 1-6 again showing the inability to take command. CWS realizes this 4 game set is their opportunity to put the final nail in Detroit's coffin. CWS again tonight!

SPORTS WAGERS

MILWAUKEE +105 over Atlanta

Don’t look now but the Brewers are just five games out of a Wild Card spot after being an afterthought this entire season. They are a different team home vs. away with a 42-28 home mark compared to a polar opposite 28-43 road record. The trend continued last night with a opening win in this series.

Tim Hudson has been an elite starter for years. He’s 14-5 this season with a 3.59 ERA but his under the hood numbers insist he’s beatable. Hudson’s xERA is 4.00. His xERA over the past month, covering five starts, was 4.46. He’s been greatly aided by a 79% strand rate. His strikeout rate is way down with just 90 all season in 153 frames and now his walk rate is beginning to creep up. Hudson has the wins and the pedigree but he’s not quite the same pitcher he was in the past. Wins will not come as easily as they once did.

Hidden in Marco Estrada’s pedestrian ERA (3.99) are intriguing numbers. An xERA of 3.49 shows he's made nice strides the past three years, in addition to the 2nd half this season. RH bats have little chance against him. He has a 70/6 K/BB in 63 IP against righties with a BAA of .184. Most notably, the Brew Crew have been playing too well at home for weeks now to ignore them as a pooch at MillerPark.

Dave Price

Washington Nationals +104

The Nationals own the best record in baseball and have won 10 of their last 11 in this series in New York. The Mets have lost 4 in a row overall and 6 of 7. Zimmerman's 2.16 road ERA is lower than Dickey's 2.29 home ERA. Plus, Zimmerman has better career numbers versus the Mets. He has an ERA of 2.95 in 10 career starts against them while Dickey has an ERA of 3.88 in 12 career starts against Washington. The Nats have won each of Zimmerman's last 4 starts against New York, and he didn't allow more than 2 runs in any of the outings. Take the Nationals.