Greg ShakerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland A's -118
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A No-Brainer Play for me for Tuesday with the Oakland A's battling for the Playoffs, their pitching staff humping it very strong, and a 33-15 Record in July/August. Already this team has shutout the Indians last night and that means that Cleveland has no scored in just 3 innings of their last 39. They have lost 11 of 12 and the bottom line is, they are just pathetic right now. I have an A's win here at 58.8% of the time.
DAVID BANKS
Cardinals / Pirates Over 8
The St. Louis Cardinals (70-57) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (68-59) are both fighting for one of the wild card spots in the National League, and a huge series between the two teams from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA continues Tuesday at 7:05 ET on MLB Network. The Cardinals hold the second and last wild card spot by 1 games over the Los Angeles Dodgers heading into play on Monday with these Pirates two games behind them.
The young Bucs have been a great Cinderella story all season and the fact that they are still nine games over .500 entering this series at this late stage of the year is to be commended for a team that has been playing losing baseball for about a decade. Still, the pressure may be starting to be a bit much as Pittsburgh enters this series going 5-17 in its last 22 games. The Pirates have been carried by their pitching, but now the staff is starting to wear down and Tuesday's starter James McDonald is a perfect example. McDonald is 11-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.22 WHIP overall, but remember that he merited All-Star Game consideration this year as he was 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA and a spiffy 0.97 WHIP at the break while allowing three runs or less in 16 of 17 starts. However, McDonald is 2-3 with a 7.29 ERA and a bloated 1.86 WHIP in eight starts since the All-Star break, allowing less than three runs only once. Then again, that one occasion did come against these Cardinals when he tossed six scoreless innings while allowing only two hits in a 2-1 victory in St. Louis two starts ago. The leaves him at 3-1 in nine career appearances vs. the Cards (five starts) with a 2.76 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while holding St. Louis batters to just a .218 average.
The Cardinals overcame a double-digit game lead to earn a wild card spot on the final day of the regular season last year and they then rode that momentum all the way to a World Series title, so that can be excused if they are still thinking about winning the National League Central Division title where they trail the Reds by six games entering Monday. Tuesday's starter Jake Westbrook has rather quietly put together a solid campaign as he is 13-9 with a 3.67 ERA, and he is 6-1 in his last seven starts. The only negative is that the lone loss in this stretch came to McDonald and the Pirates in that 2-1 game on August 17th, but Westbrook pitched well in his own right, allowing just one earned run and six hits over 7.2 innings. He also pitched well in his only start here in Pittsburgh this season when he allowed two runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings, and Westbrook is facing a Pittsburgh lineup whose worst split has been vs. right-handed pitchers at home, as the Bucs are batting .230 in that circumstance.
St. Louis as a team is only 2-6 the last eight times that Westbrook has started against Pittsburgh, but then again, the Pirates are just 3-8 in their last 11 games here at home pending Monday's result after playing so well here earlier this season.
MLB Predictions
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105
Milwaukee took the first game of the series last night by a score of 15-4. The victory moves Milwaukee to 60-67 on the season and 22-39 on the road. The Cubs are now 49-78 on the year and 32-30 at home. Brewers Ace Yovani Gallardo will take the mound tonight and he is 13-8 on the season with a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and .240 opponents batting average. Over 4 August starts he is 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .221 opponents batting average. His last start was at home against the Cubs where he went 7 innings allowing just 4 hits and 2 earned runs while striking out 9. Travis Wood will be on the rubber tonight for the Cubs and he is 4-10 on the year with a 4.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .244 opponents batting average. His numbers are higher at home with a 2-4 record and 5.17 ERA at Wrigley. Wood was solid pre All Star, but since the All Star break is 0-7 with a 7.09 ERA in 8 starts. his last start came in Milwaukee (vs Gallardo) where he went 7 innings giving up 6 hits and 3 earned runs in the loss. The Brewers enter tonight winners of 6 of their last 7 games, where they have scored 5+ runs in 5 of those 7. Chicago is just 2-6 in their last 8 games which included being swept in Milwaukee. Take note that the Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 divisional games, 5-0 in Gallardo's lsat 5 starts, 5-2 in his lsat 7 starts, and 36-15 in his last 51 starts vs a team with a losing record. The Cubs are just 6-20 in their last 26 games overall, 6-13 in their last 19 games following a loss, 0-8 in Wood's last 8 starts, and 0-4 in Wood's last 4 starts as a home underdog. The Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago, 19-7 in their last 26 meetings overall, and 7-2 in Gallardo's last 9 starts vs the Cubbies. The Brewers have been scoring a lot of runs lately and have a much more dangerous line up than the Cubs do right now. With Gallardo dealing lately I like the Brewers to win by a handful of runs and will take them on the run line.
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Oakland vs. Cleveland
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On the day after the All Star break, the Tribe were four games over .500, only three games back in the AL Central. Since that time, Cleveland is a woeful 10-32, falling 16.5 games back in the AL Central. My clients and I have been betting against the Indians at every reasonable opportunity in recent weeks. That’s been a profitable strategy; a strategy worth continuing today.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indians are mired in a truly ugly slump: 1-11 in their last dozen ballgames; 5-24 in their last 29. Their offensive production is non-existent right now – they’ve scored 0, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3 and 0 runs in their last eight ballgames; completely unable to put together extended rallies. Things won’t be any easier today for the Tribe’s lineup against the A’s Tommy Milone, coming off an eight inning, two hit gem against Minnesota in his last trip to the hill.
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Oakland is trending in the other direction these days, currently leading the AL Wild Card standings. The A’s are hot again, taking two out of three in Tampa to open their road trip, and nine of their last eleven overall while averaging just shy of five runs per game offensively. The A’s hit Cleveland starter Zack McAllister hard when they faced him earlier this month and even if McAllister pitches well here, the Indians bullpen behind him cannot be trusted to close out the game. Ride the hot, fade the cold! Take the A’s.
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
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The Yankees came to Seattle for a three-game series back on August 13. New York traded for Ichiro prior to the start of that series and went on to take two of three games. However, through August 22, the Mariners won 15 of their next 16 home games, sandwiched around a 3-6 road trip (Aug 3-12). Seattle visited Chicago this past weekend and lost all three games but the team is hoping a four day stay in Minnesota is “just what the doctor ordered.” Since losing their first meeting this season with the Twins, the Mariners have outscored Minnesota 26-8 while winning the next six between the clubs, including last night’s 1-0 win by “King Felix” (five-hit CG). The Twins have now lost 15 of 18 overall but will send their best pitcher to the mound tonight in Scott Diamond. The left-handed rookie is 10-5 with a 3.04 ERA in 20 starts (team is 11-9), including going 6-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 10 home starts (team is 7-3). Minnesota is on a 5-1 run in his last six home starts and will face Hisashi Iwakuma. He opened the season in the bullpen but after 14 relief appearances, has made nine straight starts. He’s 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA on the season (team is 5-4 in his starts) but note that in 13 home appearances he owns a 2.42 ERA, compared to a 5.62 ERA in 10 road appearances. This is one game the Twins can (and WILL) win.
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Washington Nationals -1.5 -110
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Strasburg is flat out dealing. He's 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA this month. Plus, he has been a huge thorn in the side of Miami. The Nats have won his last 4 starts against the Marlins, and he hasn't allowed a run against them since Sept. 17 - a stretch spanning five starts that lasted six innings apiece. Take Washington on the run line.
Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs +159
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The Milwaukee Brewers don't have as big of an edge on the mound as this line would indicate tonight. Yovani Gallardo is 5-5 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 11 road starts this season, which doesn't warrant him being such a heavy favorite. Travis Wood sports a 1.263 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including a 1.222 WHIP in nine home starts. With that WHIP, his ERA is certainly inflated and shouldn't be as high as it is. Wood is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in five lifetime starts vs. Milwaukee. This is certainly the best value bet of the day, especially considering neither team has much to play for. Take the Cubs on the Money Line.
Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox -142
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The White Sox lost for the first time in seven games last night, but I expect them to bounce back strong this evening behind a quality start from Chris Sale.
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The southpaw is 15-4 with a 2.66 ERA in 22 starts this season, including 7-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 11 starts on the road.
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Baltimore's Chris Tillman pales in comparison. He is 6-2 with an ERA of 3.71 in 9 starts, including 2-1 with an ERA of 4.56 in 4 home starts. He checks in with an ERA of 6.35 over his last 3 starts while Sale has posted an ERA of 3.00 over his last 3.
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The White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 games versus a right-handed starter and 9-3 in Sale's last 12 starts as a favorite. The Orioles are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a home underdog and 1-4 in Tillman's last 5 starts versus the American League Central. Bet Chicago.
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Detroit Tigers -1.5 -115
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The Tigers, winners of 5 of 6, are worth a wager on the run line with Verlander on the hill against a Kansas City club that has dropped 4 of 5. The Tigers have won 7 of 8 versus the Royals this season with those 7 wins coming by an average of 2.7 runs. Plus, Verlander has long dominated the Royals. He's 14-2 with an ERA of 2.36 in 21 career starts against them. The Tigers have won 9 of his last 11 starts versus KC with those 9 wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. Take Detroit on the run line.
Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers -161
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After two straight losses, the Los Angeles Dodgers get back on track tonight against the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers have a big edge on the mound in this one folks.
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Chris Capuano is 11-9 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 26 starts this season for Los Angeles. He's one of the most underrated starters in the league. Capuano has posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 13 career starts against Colorado.
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Tyler Chatwood is 3-3 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in five starts and seven relief appearances this season for Colorado. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three home starts as well.
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Chatwood is 1-9 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Colorado is 1-11 off a win of 6 runs or more over a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 8-1 in Capuano's last 9 starts with 5 days of rest. Bet Los Angeles Tuesday.
Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
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The uninformed will refuse to fade CWS and Sale in this matchup. Noting the CWS division lead and Sales 15-4 2.65 ERA. The Under the Radar stats show that the White Sox have lost 4 straight road games after the come from ahead defeat last night and that Sale has a 6.30 ERA in his last 3 road outings. We are siding with the value with a Baltimore team that is on an 18-8 run including 11-3 on this field where they are averaging 5.4 RPG. and are one of four teams in the AL within 1 game in the standings who are battling for the 2 Wild Card slots. Make the Birds your best Homedog Play of the Day!
Andre Gomes
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Cardinals / Pirates Over 8
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The Cardinals won the first game of this series yesterday in a tight game, where both teams struggle with their RISP. St Louis will start Westbrook today and even though he has won six of his last seven starts, he hasn't been impressive lately, especially on his last start against the lowly Astros, where he needed to massive run support to compensate his poor start, where he allowed 5 runs and 7 hits in just 5.0IP. Westbrook is now coming from three starts in a row where his FIP was higher than his ERA, therefore I really believe he will continue struggling tonight against a Pirates roster that is hitting .308 BA and .799 OPS against him in 156 AB's. This is clearly a good spot to fade Westbrook and so, I believe he will have a very tough outing tonight.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The problem for Pittsburgh is that I don't believe McDonald will have an easier outing tonight than Westbrook. McDonald has been having a terrible second half of the season, being currently posting a 7.29 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break. He looked decent against the Cardinals two starts ago, but then had a terrible outing in San Diego, where he allowed four runs and five hits in five innings against the Padres in Petco Park. And if he posts a 7.20 ERA, 5.29 FIP and 7.65 xFIP in a game played in the pitching-friendly Petco Park, I believe he will highly struggle tonight against a red hot Cards offense, ready to get revenge from the last time they faced McDonald and pound him big time tonight.
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I expect to see both starting pitchers heavily struggling tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Wunderdog
Milwaukee at Chicago
Pick: Chicago +150
The Chicago Cubs were humiliated here yesterday as the Brewers came into town and won 15-4. That still leaves the Brew Crew a disastrous 22-39 on the road, so to be a chunky favorite here is certainly not justified. The Cubs are certainly not pitching rich, but have only allowed a team to score 10+ on them nine times all season, and in the game following they own a winning record, so it has gotten their attention. The Cubs have a few areas where they have been good in this year and they all apply tonight. They are 8-2 at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and are 12-4 at home vs. a losing team in their last 16. They have also done a great job at home to a low total of 7 to 8.5 where they are 16-7 in their last 23. Play on the Cubs.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +120 over TEXAS
James Shields is 12-7 and owns one of the best xERA’s (2.97) in the league due to an elite groundball rate of 53% and a high strikeout rate of 168 in in 175 innings. Pitching with men on base, his groundball rate is off the charts at 64%. Throwing at this venue, against this team, gets him even more fired up. Against Texas over his last 65 innings, Shields is 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA.
Yu Darvish is not quite the ace-level pitcher many had hoped for. He experienced some tightness in his quadriceps during his bullpen session last week, enough for the team to skip his Thursday start. The sweltering Texas heat, combined with the long season is taking its toll. Darvish has a 6.27 ERA since the break. He continues to walk far too many hitters (80 in 148 frames). Ron Washington is well known for his tendency to burn out pitchers and he’s never had a situation like Yu’s. Darvish has allowed five runs or more in four of his past seven starts. He’s walked four or more in five of his last six assignments. The Rangers have lost five of his past eight starts and had it not been for the offense bailing him out in a couple of those, his W/L record would be worse. A justified correction to that mark is forthcoming.
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the San Diego Padres, plus a mighty big number for a team that has won eight in a row.
I know the Atlanta Braves are playing for a playoff spot and I know they've won each of the past 16 games started by tonight's starter, Kris Medlen, dating back to 2010, but all that aside - the Padres are playing some of their best baseball right now and I like my chances with a value price.
Just over the last week we've seen the Friars play spoiler to several playoff-contending teams. After knocking off NL West-rival San Francisco Giants on Aug. 19, the Pads went on to sweep Pittsburgh and Arizona before last night's 3-0 win over Atlanta.
San Diego pitchers have a 1.73 ERA over its last eight games, while the team is on a 12-2 run after recording a win. The Friars are on additional winning streaks of 7-0 as an underdog, 4-0 as a home pup and 5-0 at home.
The Braves come in on losing slides of 2-5 versus N.L. West teams, 0-4 as the favorite and 3-7 overall.
2♦ SAN DIEGO