Chuck O'Brien
As for your free pick, I'm looking to nab Comp Winner #100 out of 163, as I take a shot with the Miami Marlins over the Washington Nationals tonight at Marlins Park in South Beach. And make note, I want you listing Ricky Nolasco and Stephen Strasburg, as I'm basing this on a revenge theory for Miami's erratic northpaw.
The right-hander throws strikes with four solid pitches, but can be very inconsistent from outing to outing. That's probably why he is 9-12 this season with a 5.07 ERA, and 1-6 with a 6.70 ERA in his last eight starts.
So why invest in him against the league's best team, with its ace on the hill? Well, despite Strasburg earning a victory in each of his last four outings, and recording his first double-digit strikeout game (10) of the month his last trip to the hill, there's something to be said about revenge.
These two just met on August 5, in Washington D.C., where Nolasco allowed four earned over six innings of work. That happened to be Nolasco's fourth road start in six outings, and tonight will be only his fourth home start since July 15 - and fifth since July 1. And he's catching the struggling Nats at the right time, as they've lost four straight coming into this series.
And make note, rather than travel to South Beach after Sunday's series finale in Philadelphia, the Nationals' trip was delayed with Tropical Storm Isaac moving toward South Florida. Thus, the club readjusted plans and traveled to Miami yesterday afternoon rather than Sunday. I understand, these are Major Leaguers and they're used to traveling and playing overnight. But that offense has been lethargic during a four-game slide, being limited to just six runs.
Any intangible can mess with a team's rhythm, and I think this a value price with the underdog. I'm playing the Marlins and I'm listing both.
2♦ MIAMI
Craig Davis
Free play run is 7-2 the past 9 days, and 68-43 overall.
For Tuesday, free play on the New York Yankees on the Run Line over Toronto.
The Yanks can ill-afford to keep losing games like they did last night.
With a 6-4 lead in the top of the 9th and Rafael Soriano on the hill to close it out, he gives up an absolute bomb three-run homer and all of a sudden the Blue Jays have the lead. New York forces extras on a Derek Jeter solo home run but they would lose the game in the 11th on an error by pitcher Derek Lowe on a pick off attempt.
Things need to be getting better, not worse, for the Yankees down the home stretch, and they can't lose games like they did last night.
So tonight I believe you'll find a much more focused Yankees bunch as Phil Hughes looks for another strong outing. He's 5-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last six home starts, and although he hasn't been as sharp on the road, he did pitch well in Chicago last week. He's 12-11 for the season with a 4.15 ERA, but that's a little misleading considering how poorly he pitched in the first half of the year.
He's countered by Ricky Romero who is 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA in his last four starts vs. the Yankees. He hasn't won since June 22, dropping 10 straight decisions while compiling a 7.69 ERA in his last 11 starts. Yikes.
As bad as things might seem for the Bronx Bombers right now, I don't know if it can get much worse than what's happening to Romero.
I'm taking the Yankees in a blowout as your free play of the day.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is for two of the better pitchers in the National League to lock horns and pitch a low-scoring game.
Reds-Diamondbacks Under the total tonight at Chase Field.
John Cueto and Wade Miley have been mowing them down lately, and pretty much all season long for that matter.
Cueto is on a 7-1 run his last nine starts with a 2.70 ERA. He is also a tough 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA the last five times he has faced Arizona. For the year, Cueto's ERA is 2.47, and the Under is 10-3-1 the last 14 times he has started.
Wade Miley is 3-2 his last five starts, sporting a 1.67 ERA in those five efforts. The Under is 6-3 the last nine season starts for the southpaw.
These teams are 5-2-1 Under the total the last eight season series meetings.
I say stick with the dominant low-scoring series trends and look for Cueto and Miley to put plenty of goose eggs on the scoreboard tonight.
Reds-D-Backs Under the total on Tuesday.
3♦ CINCINNATI-ARIZONA UNDER
Chris Jordan
Not sure what has gotten into the Philadelphia Phillies, but they've won four in a row and they're looking damn strong right now. And tonight, in an attempt to win five in a row for the first time in more than three months, I like their chances against the visiting New York Mets.
I know the Mets have won eight of 12 in this series this season, including a 5-1 run at Citizens Bank Park, but the Phillies have won 14 of 20 at home and don't appear ready to let up with their momentum. After all, it's almost a given they're going to miss the postseason for the first time in six years, so their motivation has to be stronger than ever to finish the season with a big push.
It's a mediocre pitching matchup - Chris Young versus Vance Worley - so I'm not going to list pitchers or worry about them. I'll just lay the chalk with the Phils and look for No. 5 in a row with this streaking team.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Matt Rivers
Tuesday's free play is the Oakland A's over the Cleveland Indians.
Really don't believe the price on this one, as the Indians have become a laughing-stock as we head into the final month of the season.
Cleveland has now lost 11 of their last 12 after being blanked last night, and their batting average during their last dozen games stands at an anemic .214, while plating just 2 1/2 runs per game in that span.
As for Oakland, they have now won the last five season series meetings versus Cleveland, and they have also won 9 of their last 11 overall on the year.
Tommy Milone and Zach McAllister are meeting once again after facing off back on August 17th. In that one, both escaped with no-decisions, and both allowed four runs to score in that game.
Milone is coming off a solid eight inning, one run win over the Twins, while McAllister has picked up the no-decision his last pair of trips to the mound.
Oakland owns a 33-15 mark since the beginning of July, while Cleveland is now just 5-24 their last 29 games.
The choice is obvious to me. Oakland as the road favorite to get the win.
5♦ OAKLAND
The Duke's Sports
Cincinnati -108
Reds/D'backs 9:40: Arizona is struggling on a four game slide. They're juggling their roster to find the right mix but chemistry is altered. Sure, Miley gives them a fighting chance here and because of his solid rookie year -- the price is affordable for the hot visiting Reds. Cincinnati counters with Cueto who sports a strong 1.71 ERA with a super 0.76 WHIP over his last three starts. He is 4-0 vs AZ. His mates should give him the needed run support; after all, they're 12-3 in their last 15 against lefty starters. And the Reds sport a 41-16-3 mark against Arizona, including 10-2 in their last 12 at this ballpark.