Marc Lawrence
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: New York Mets
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The Mets and Braves battle in Game Two of this three game series when R.A. Dickey opposes Derek Lowe at Turner Field in Atlanta. While both hurlers are just 1-5 in each of their last six team starts, Dickey has posted a sharp 1.51 ERA in his efforts while Lowe owns a rocky 5.13 ERA to show for his efforts. With Dickey 6-3 in his career team starts during August, look for the Mets to improve to 13-4 on Tuesday, their best day of the week, here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.
Matt Fargo
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers absolutely annihilated Chicago last night and that type of win can carry over for both sides into the next game. The win snapped a five-game losing streak for Milwaukee and the offensive production was well overdue and came out of nowhere. Milwaukee tallied a total of eight runs during that five game skid so it is fairly obvious what a turnaround it was last night. The Cubs meanwhile still have their losing streak intact as they have now dropped six straight games after putting together a decent 11-7 run prior to that. There is no home field edge for Chicago as t has fallen two games under .500 at Wrigley Field and following the moved made before the trade deadline, the Cubs have thrown in the towel for the season. That was the case a while ago but now it is official. Because of this, Chicago will be taking some looks at some young players and that is the case tonight. The Cubs send Thomas Diamond to the hill for his Major League debut. He was 5-4 with a 3.16 ERA in 21 starts for AAA Iowa this year. He had 104 strikeouts and 46 walks in 108.1 innings which is a decent ratio but he did have problems with control and that can escalate very quickly at this level. Milwaukee is hitting .292 against right-handed pitching over its last 10 games. The Brewers counter with Christopher Narveson who has been extremely inconsistent this season but they are sticking with him as the potential is there. He has allowed three runs or fewer in four of his last seven games including his last start on the road in Atlanta which resulted in a quality outing. Run support has been inconsistent as well but based on last night and who the offense is facing tonight, that production should be plentiful Tuesday. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six games against right-handed starters while going 4-1 in Narveson’s last five road starts against teams with a losing record. The Cubs meanwhile are 0-7 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Milwaukee Brewers
Cajun Sports
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San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants open a mini two-game series on Tuesday night in Denver. The oddsmakers have set the number on this contest with the Rockies a 130 favorite. San Francisco is 9-8 as a road underdog in this price range, 28-25 on the road overall and 18-21 versus division opponents. Colorado is 35-18 at home this season including 10-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. We will back the host here as they grab the first game in this mini-series with the Giants.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Colorado Rockies 5 San Francisco Giants 3
Lee Kostroski
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
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The starting pitching match-up keeps this line incredibly low for a Yankees home game given that New York owns a 34-16 home record for the season and one of the best overall records in baseball. Ricky Romero had an incredibly strong start to the season but his numbers have been much more average of late. The Blue Jays are just 2-5 in his last seven starts and he was pounded for eight runs in less than three innings in his last visit to the Big Apple. For the year Romero owns a 2.18 home ERA but on the road he is 3-5 with a 4.62 ERA.
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Dustin Moseley has only pitched in five games for the Yankees this season but he was dominant in his lone start, allowing just four hits and one run in six innings to beat the Indians last week. Moseley had success as a fill-in starter for the Angels in 2007 and 2008 and he is capable of providing a solid outing. New York’s bullpen ERA has also been outstanding of late with a 1.67 ERA over the past ten games so there are many options to pick up the later innings.
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New York is crushing left-handed pitching this season going 22-14 against southpaws while hitting .327 in the last ten games. The Jays are just 6-18 in the last 24 games as underdogs and Toronto is just 10-18 in the past 28 road games despite being near .500 on the road for the season. The Blue Jays have home run potential but Toronto is batting just .249 for the season including .240 in road games so the offensive edge should be squarely with the Yankees who can match Toronto’s power.
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Only a handful of times have the Yankees been this slight of favorites at home and those match-ups including the likes of David Price, Roy Halladay, and Francisco Liriano, a class that Romero is simply not in nor are the Blue Jays as strong of an opponent as those teams. Going back to last season New York is 75-26 in the last 101 home games and the Yankees are also 21-13 this season in the second game of a series. Look for the Blue Jays to struggle in this match-up as Romero has not pitched well against New York and Moseley has delivered as a starter at this level.
Ross Benjamin
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Chicago White Sox G1 vs. Detroit Tigers G1
Play: Chicago White Sox G1
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The Detroit starter Rick Porcello is 0-3 in his team starts versus the White Sox since the start of the 2009 season while posting a monster 9.76 ERA in the process. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 7 and 15 of the last 17. The White Sox are 15-5 in their last 20 as a road favorite with Mark Buehrle as their starting pitcher. The Sox are 13-3 in their last 16 this season in the opening game of a series. Play on the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of the doubleheader as my free selection on Tuesday.
Dan Bebe
NYM (+120) vs ATL
This one is ALL about match-ups.
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Derek Lowe is 3-5 with a 6.61 ERA lifetime against the Mets. Luis Castillo, David Wright, and even one of the lesser known Mets, Josh Thole, have each given Lowe a very bad time, and for the Braves to throw 2 straight sinkerballers is a very odd strategy. The Mets just saw the BEST sinkerball in the Majors (according to groundball stats) from Tim Hudson, and now the Braves bring back a slightly lesser version of the same type of pitcher?
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Lowe has been struggling, having not gone 6 innings in any of his last 4 starts, and allowing 5 homers in those starts. He lost 3-0 to the Mets during that span, and honestly, it could have been much worse, as the Mets put 10 men on base in 5.1 innings, but Lowe managed to give up just 2 runs in a very short outing. The Braves have lost 6 of 7 of Lowe's starts, and anyone that has followed Lowe knows what a head-case he can be when he's struggling. He's a very streaky pitcher, and as long as we don't see a miracle, the Mets should be able to put up at least 2-3 runs against him in a short outing.
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R.A. Dickey is continuing his renaissance with the Mets, and there's really no reason to think the wheels come off, here. The Braves haven't been hitting that well, and last night they scored just 4 in the game despite posting 3 in the first inning. Dickey went 8.1 innings in his last start on just 3 days of rest, and because he's a knuckleballer, he doesn't need quite the same recovery time. Here, he has his normal 4 days of rest, so no weird factors to consider, other than that Dickey hasn't allowed a run in either of his last 2 starts, and is on a nice roll since the Break. Even better, after losing 6 straight starts of his, the Mets got Dickey a win in his last outing, and usually once the lid comes off the bucket, a team can pour in a shot or two, metaphorically.
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I love the upward trends of the Mets starter compounded by the downward trends of the Braves starter. Both teams have solid pens, and both teams have had some offensive issues, lately. That makes me think that if the Mets can get to Lowe for 2, 3 or 4 runs, that might just be enough on its own, and at this nice dog price, we'll ride that.
JIM FEIST
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TEXAS RANGERS / SEATTLE MARINERS
PLAY: TEXAS RANGERS
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The Rangers struggled at the plate, something they are not used to. But, getting baseball's top hitter back for the Seattle series, Josh Hamilton, will put some life back in the bats. Plus, it doesn't hurt playing the last place team in the division. During their recent 6-5 run, the offense hit just .242 and averaged 3.1 runs per game. Normally, the Rangers are third in the majors with a .276 batting average and fourth in runs scored per game (4.99). The Rangers should feast on the M's now that Hamilton is back. Texas has won the first eight of 10 meetings with Seattle this season while outscoring the Mariners 62-22 during the span. Colby Lewis will start for the Rangers. Lewis is 9-7 with a 3.40 ERA this season. Lewis lost last time out, despite giving up just one earned run over seven innings pitched. Jason Vargas will oppose for the Mariners. Vargas is 6-5 with a 3.20 ERA this season though he was hit hard last time out, allowing five earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings. I like the Rangers here on Tuesday, but really because Hamilton is back. They looked very anemic against the Angels, but I fully expect them to feast on the Mariners during this series. Take the Rangers here on Tuesday.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Houston +2.26 over ST. LOUIS
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Win or lose here, the fact is this line is just plain ridiculous. First, the Astros are very warm with six wins in a row and seven wins in eight games. Over that eight-game stretch they’ve outscored the opposition 43-13. They came in here last night and won the opener 9-4 and have a very good chance of extending its winning streak. The Cards are 5-6 over its last 11 games with three of those six wins coming against the Pirates. They lost a series to the both the Cubbies and Mets to make up its other two wins. The Cards remain a way overvalued squad almost daily and you can triple that for this one. Bud Norris has the potential to be one of the game's better young starters. He has a ton of upside and has really picked it up recently. In his last two starts covering 12 frames, Norris has allowed just eight hits, struck out 12 and had induced 18 groundballs to just 12 fly-balls. He’s faced the Cards three times this season and in 20 innings, he struck out 21, walked four, and had a BAA of .227 and an ERA of 2.61. Overall, Norris has 85 K’s in 80 innings. Jaime Garcia is another very decent young starter and could definitely have a very good game here. Everything Garcia does is good and he’s a pitcher to watch, as he could develop into one of the best in a couple of years. Thing is, he and the Cards absolutely do not warrant this tag against Norris and the resurgent Astros. This one could come down to the pens and the Astros ripped apart the Cards pen last night. Can someone explain why EVERY Cards reliever has a heavy beard and looks like a character from Deliverance. Is that another one of LaRussa’s futile ploys to intimidate hitters? It must be because it can’t be a coincidence that every one of them sports that same look. Have another whiskey Tony. Anyway, what we have here is a sweet tag on a presently sweet combo of Norris and the Astros. Play: Houston +2.26 (Risking 2 units).
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San Diego +1.08 over LOS ANGELES
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The Padres keep jabbing the Dodgers and now it only seems like a matter of time before the Dodgers hit the canvas. The Padres came in here last night and scored 10 times and have now beaten L.A. three out of four games in the past week. What he have here is two outstanding pitchers in Ted Lilly and Mat Latos. Lilly was on his way to his fourth consecutive strong season before being traded to LA. He's an extreme flyball pitcher (29/18/50 G/LD/F) who has suffered from bouts of gopheritis (1.5 HR/9). Going from Wrigley Field to Dodger Stadium can only help him and outside of a poor showing in May, he’s posted great numbers in every other month. Having said that, you have to like Latos’ chances of outperforming Lilly. Latos is the straight goods. This guy has been about as unhittable a pitcher as there is in the game and it doesn’t matter if he’s pitching at Petco or elsewhere. He dominates. The real kicker here, however, is the pens, where comparing the two is like comparing Peyton Manning to Ryan Fitzpatrick and it’s not in the Dodgers favor. Play: San Diego +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
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San Francisco +1.20 over COLORADO
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After a 12-game losing streak the Rocks were able to take out its frustrations on the Cubbies. Big deal. The Brewers joined that same club last night by beating the Cubs 18-1. This is not the Cubbies. The Giants have been playing great ball for weeks. They’re 13-3 over its last 16 road games and overall they’ve won 22 of its last 27. Aaron Cook instills fear into nobody. Cook has not made it out of the fifth inning in two of his last three starts and failed to make it out of the third in his last against the Pirates. Over his last four games, covering just 18.2 frames, Cook has been tagged for 31 hits and 15 earned runs for an ERA of 7.23 a WHIP of 1.93 and an OBA of .371. It’s also worth noting that Cook was taken to the hospital for X-rays after he took a foul ball off his foot during batting practice Saturday. In fact, he has not pitched past the fifth inning in three of his last four games. For Jonathon Sanchez it’s all about control. When he’s throwing strikes he’s dominating lineups. When he’s not he struggles miserably. He has 127 K’s in 122 innings this season and at this park a strikeout pitcher is about 100 times more appealing than a pitcher that doesn’t strike out many. Of course, walking hitters at this park is a disaster waiting to happen but with a tag on Sanchez and with the way the Giants are playing, it’s a risk worth taking, especially against the declining skills of Cook. Play: San Francisco +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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Cincinnati starter Mike Leake is 11-8 in his team starts this year The Reds are 51-22 their last 73 games vs. NL Central teams. Cincinnati is 5-1 their last 6 games overall. The Reds are 5-2 their last 7 road games and they are 4-1 with Leake vs. a team with losing record. Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm has been on the losing side in 7 of his last 9 starts. The Pirates are 8-20 their last 28 games vs. the Reds. Pittsburgh 15-48 their last 63 games vs. righty starters and they are 0-5 their last 5 home games.
Steve Merril
Giants vs. Rockies
Play: Over 9
Colorado has won four straight games at home as their offense has awakened with the return of Troy Tulowitzki. The Rockies have scored 40 runs during that stretch and they’ll face the Giants for the first of a 2-game series in Coors Field. Jonathan Sanchez makes the start for the Giants. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 13 Overs in 21 starts this season. On the road, the lefty is 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA. He took a loss back in a May game in San Francisco against the Rockies. In that game, he gave up three runs and three hits in 4.7 innings of work. Sanchez is 2-4 with a 6.36 ERA in nine career starts against the Rockies. Ryan Spilborghs (5-18), Chris Ianetta (4-15), Troy Tulowitzki (7-15), and Dexter Fowler (3-9) all hit the lefty well. Colorado is hitting .304 at home while averaging 5.9 runs per game in Coors Field. They are hitting .331 over their last seven games. Aaron Cook is struggling big time for Colorado. He's 1-2 with a 6.59 ERA in his last three starts. He gave up 10 runs and 15 hits over his last seven innings pitched to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Cook is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts against San Francisco giving up eight runs and 14 hits over 12.1 innings pitched. Almost every Giants regular hits over .300 against him with Pat Burrell (13-22), Aaron Rowand (7-20), Edgar Renteria (8-19), Aubrey Huff (3-7), Freddy Sanchez (3-7), Nate Schierholtz (4-7), Travis Ishikawa (5-6), and Buster Posey (2-3) doing the best. The Giants have gone Over in 30 of their 53 road games while hitting .258 as a team. These two teams have gone Over in three of their four meetings in Colorado, and since we expect another high-scoring game here, we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Giants and Rockies tonight.
Rocketman
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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Diego Padres
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San Diego is 62-42 overall this year and in 1st place in the NL West. San Diego is a decent 29-20 on the road this season. LA Dodgers are 4-11 this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. LA Dodgers are 8-16 the past 3 years after allowing 10 runs or more. San Diego has won 7 of their last 10 games overall. LA Dodgers have lost 6 games in a row heading into tonight's action. San Diego bullpen has a 2.76 ERA overall this year and a 2.95 ERA on the road this season. Mat Latos is 11-4 with a 2.45 ERA overall this year, 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA his last 3 starts. Ted Lilly is only 3-8 overall this year. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -135
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The Mets are struggling, having lost 16 of their last 22. In addition, the Braves have had their number in Atlanta. In fact, the Braves are 16-5 in home games against the Mets the last 3 seasons. The Mets send Dickey to the mound, and they are just 1-6 in his last 7 starts. They are also 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. Dickey was roughed up in his only start against the Braves earlier this season, allowing 9 hits (2 home runs) in 6 2/3 innings in a loss. Lowe steps to the rubber for Atlanta. He has been solid at home, and he has also received plenty of run support. The Braves are a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. He has pitched well in his last 3 home starts against the Mets, allowing no more than 3 earned runs in each. Take the Braves.
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia Phillies -203
The Phillies are hot and I'm going to back them here for a free winner with their ace Roy Halliday on the mound. Halladay is now 2-1 since the All-Star break, as Halliday is averaging seven strikeouts per outing. His 149 strikeouts on the year are among the best in the majors. Halliday has walked one or less batters in 17 of his 22 starts this season and he has as many complete games as all the Phillies starters had combined in 2009. Against the Fish this season he has an ERA of just 1.08 and I expect another dominate performance here. The Marlins send AAA call up Sean West to the mound for this start. West is nothing special and a border line big leaguer in my opinion. This will be his first major league start this season after posting a 3.12 ERA in 11 starts for Triple-A New Orleans. West also made 20 starts for the Marlins last year, going 8-6 with a 4.79 ERA, but he benifeted from a lot of run support last season that I don't see him getting in this game against Roy Halliday. The Phillies are 11-3 in their last fourteen games in Florida and I expect those winning ways to continue. Play on Philadelphia.
JR O'Donnell
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Chi Sox/Tigers Under 8.5
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The Chi Sox Mark Buehrle who checks in @ a smooth 6-2 75% with a 2.74 ERA in his last 10 ball games for those HOT Chicago White Sox. The Under set here @ 8.5 puts us on the right total as the "Public" will see the Tiger's R. Porcello and that lofty 0-5 recent mark with a 5.40 ERA in his last 8 starts AND GO OVER. The Stats & JR POWER RATING'S check in a @ powerful 7 runs here and the Under is 13-3 in Buehrle's last 16 starts with a full 4+ days of rest. He will be sharp today.
Sac Lawson
CWS (-125) vs DET
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The White Sox have won 13 of their last 15 series-opening games, and although an early game is usually tougher on the team that had to travel the night before, this amount of travel was certainly manageable, especially with yesterday's game being an afternoon game as well. So not much concern there for me.
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The real concern is the fact that in three starts against the Sox, Porcello has been absolutely murdered! He's got an ERA around 10.0... nuff said. On the same token, the Tigers are a bit beat up. Johnny Damon is working out an injury, as is Carlos Guillen. With Porcello, a depleted lineup, and a hot White Sox team coming into town, Game one looks scary for the Tigers.
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Especially because Beuhrle has had very very solid success against Detroit in his career, and the fact that he hasn't faced them since 2008 is an advantage on his side, if anything. The simple fact is, we've got one pitcher with success against his opposition, the other without, and we've got one lineup that continues to stay hot and win ball game after ball game against a team in Detroit that is becoming depleted, and as a result has lost 8 of their last 10 games. Take the Chi Sox in GAME 1, for 1 unit!