Dave Essler
Dodgers / Phillies Over 8
There are too many ways these teams get to four runs each, IMO. First we've got Williams who we know to be terrible. He's got an ERA of 6.36, a WHIP of 1.69, and he's allowed 17 home runs in 80 innings. Just add that to the fact that he hardly ever pitches very deep, the Phillies pen is minus on decent closer, and they've given up 10 or more hits in four of five games. That includes two games against Atlanta. The Phillies HAVE ten or more hits in six of eight games, not face Alex Wood. He comes over from the Braves, so the Phillies have seen tons of him, and so have I. He's had three straight huge pitch-count games, and the last one was 112. Far too many for someone like him that's not used to it. He faced the Phillies a month ago and allowed ten hits in six innings. They're in a hitters' park, the Phillies are 28-20 to the over at home, the weather is supposed to be conducive to balls carrying, the Dodgers' pen has been brutal lately, and that's all there is to this. If LA is supposed to win, we get the last at bat. If LA is supposed to win handily, we get the "B" team out of the pen. The bottom line is that if this is a pitcher's duel between Wood and Williams, I'll be very surprised. It doesn't matter much who is in and who is not, but with days off, I expect the better lineups.
Jim Feist
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -134
The Cardinals are 7-1 following an off day. St. Louis has it all, power pitching, great defense and the best pen in the game. The Cardinals are 9-3 vs. a team with a losing record. Starter John Lackey (2.78 ERA, 9-6) has had another fine campaign, allowing 2 runs or less in nine straight starts. Lackey gave up one run on two hits and one walk while striking out eight in eight innings in Wednesday's 1-0 loss to the Reds. The Cardinals squandered another strong outing from Lackey, who has posted a 1.67 ERA during his last nine outings -- all quality starts. The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. Cincinnati is 3-5 in the last eight starts made by Anthony DeSclafani, who walks too many batters (46 in 120 innings). And the Cardinals are 51-21 vs. a right-handed starter, plus Cardinals are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland A's
Play: Oakland A's +102
Edges - A’s: Chris Bassitt 3.53 ERA in nine MLB career home starts, and 19 strikeouts and 3 walks in his five team starts this season. Orioles: Miguel Gonzalez 2-5 last seven team starts during the month of August, including 1-3 away, and 0-1 with 7.06 ERA career team start versus versus Oakland. with Gonzalez sporting a 6.19 ERA in his last six starts, we recommend a 1* play on Oakland.
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Play: Minnesota Lynx -140
We will back the better team here as Minnesota is laying just a few here to LA. The Lynx are 9-1 vs losing teams , 7-2 on the road, 7-0 after allowing 705 or more points and have won 26 of 38 after playing 3 straight games that went under the total. They have scored 80 or more in 3 straight and take on an LA. Sparks team that has lost both times as a home dog of 3 or less. The Sparks have also lost 26 of 35 at home when the tolal is 150 or more, 7 of 10 vs winning teams and 9 of 11 off a division game. lay the small number here.
Scott Spreitzer
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Chicago Cubs -125
J.A. Happ heads from Seattle to Pittsburgh and gets the start with A.J. Burnett hitting the DL with an elbow injury. Happ was not having a good season in Seattle and had been saddled with a 7.43 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and .302 BAA in his last six appearances, including five starts. Jake Arrieta will aim for his 9th straight quality start tonight and he's likely to get it having better success on the road this season than at Wrigley Field. Arrieta has two strong starts against the Pirates this season, including one start at PNC. He went 2-0 in his previous three starts before this season against the Bucs, with a 2.50 ERA & 1.17 WHIP. The Cubs have won five straight games overall, and they're on a 6-0 run when Arrieta is listed as a road favorite.
Ray Monohan
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +115
The Pirates have gone all in this year. They are playing great ball right now and have the second best record in the NL. Chicago on the other hand was not nearly as aggressive at the deadline preferring to see if their young kids can make a push and learn about themselves in the process. They did add to their bullpen though so its not like they did nothing.
If Chicago is going to stay in the race they have to leave Pittsburgh with some victories in this series. One of the Pirates recent additions is lefty starter J.A. Happ. I think Happ will find it comfortable back in the NL with a quality team behind him. He has always had good stuff and now he can just relax. Taking on Jake Arrieta won’t make it easy to get a win but there is good value with Pittsburgh. You get them as a dog just on the pitching matchup so take it.
Jesse Schule
Minnesota vs. Toronto
Pick:Toronto -1.5
Toronto has put the rest of the American League on notice, making a huge statement at the trade deadline. If the fact that the Jays picked up Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere and David Price didn't make the Yankees nervous, watching them take 3-of-4 in a series with the Royals certainly would have. The Jays handed the Twins a 5-1 loss in yesterday's series opener, and they'll face former Yankee Phil Hughes in Game 2 at Rogers Center tonight.
Hughes (10-6, 4.11 ERA) allowed more home runs than any other pitcher in the major leagues during his time with the Yankees. Many of those came off the bats of New York's division rival Toronto. This will be his first start versus the Jays this season, and he is 1-3 with a 5.90 ERA in his last six trips to Rogers Center. The southpaw surrendered five runs on 10 hits and a pair of home runs in just five innings in a home win over the Mariners his last time out. He might not be so fortunate here on the road, where the Twins have lost eight of their last 10.
The Jays hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who has been solid at home in Toronto. Estrada (8-6, 3.53 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on three hits over 5 2/3 innings in a home win over the Royals his last time out. He's 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA in eight starts at home, and the Jays are 4-1 in his last five home starts.
Josh Donaldson leads the American League with 77 RBIs, and he batted in a pair of runs in the win over the Twins yesterday.
DAVE COKIN
CUBS VS. PIRATES
PLAY: CUBS -125
The Pirates made some minor adds at the deadline, with one of this pickups being lefty JA Happ. The veteran southpaw will make his Bucs debut tonight. Happ draws a very tough mound adversary this evening as Jake Arrieta throw for the Cubs.
I see a big edge here for Arrieta. He’s had an outstanding season to date. Errata has now arrived at that point where even when he’s not at his best, he’ll usually find a way to grind out six innings and give his team a decent chance to win the game.
The Pirates should be thrilled if they can get six okay frames from Happ. He was really struggling for the Mariners and while the change in scenery might be beneficial, Happ is definitely not what I’d call a go with guy at the present time. Happ has had serious command issues of late. His control has been less than stellar and his strikes are getting too much of the plate on a regular basis. Happ doesn’t have great stuff to begin with, and if he’s not locating properly, he’s can get overwhelmed by big league hitters.
With the rainout on Monday night, the Cubs five-game winning streak remains intact. So even though the overall team data would favor the Pirates, that’s more than offset by the edge on the mound with Arrieta vs. Happ and the current form that favors the Cubs. The oddsmakers have made a good adjustment with the road team a decent sized favorite, but I believe there’s ample reason to accept the price and play the Cubs as road chalk.
Sleepyj
Dodgers / Phillies Over 8
Dodgers should enjoy hitting in Philly tonight..They also would like to repeat a series win against Philly again..Dodgers played Philly about two weeks ago and the Dodgers did rather well...They didn't have a chance to face Jerome Williams in that series though..They will get a crack at the RHP tonight...Williams has a 6.36 ERA and a WHIP of 1.69....These numbers for Williams on the season are just bad...He has allowed 116 hits and 60 runs in only 80 IP....That's really bad...He also has 8 games in which he gave up 4 or more runs. He has only started 16 games all year...So half of the time he is getting rocked...He has pitched his last 4 games on the road and coming back home may get him dialed in a little bit..I wouldn;t count on it though..The Dodgers are looking to make a push and it all starts with the bats. Dodgers have now won 5 in a row and they are looking to take this series Vs. the Phillies again...I'm waiting for this Didgers lineup to produce some runs here tonight..It's only a matter of time before they really break out in the run dept..They will go with Alex Wood tonight..Now Wood has been good, but being traded from ATL to LAD might give him some issues...Philly knows Wood very well, so i expect them to be able to hit him tonight...Wood on the road is hit and miss for the most part..His last game against Philly he gave up 4ER and 10 hits..So the bats for the Phillies should be rather confident..Wood has a ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.41...Wood and Williams will both walk batters tonight..I think we see a bunch of runs manufactured here tonight..I can't see a shutdown performance by ethier guy tonight..This one has back and forth written all over it...First team to 6 or 7 runs may win this one, but i have a strong feeling the loser will be just a run behind..Rollins will be back in Philly tonight and should feel rather comfortable here as well for the Dodgers...We go over this one tonight.
Mr Vegas
Arizona at Washington
Play: Under
Arizona heads to Washington, a huge park, great for pitchers. Patrick Corbin has excellent stuff for the Diamondbacks, allowing 2 runs or less in three straight starts. Corbin's really found his stride in the last two, striking out 16 while allowing just 10 baserunners in 13 innings. The Under is 13-4 in the Diamondbacks last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The offense won't score much on Washington ace Max Scherzer (11-8, 2.22 ERA). Scherzer limited Miami to three hits and three walks over seven shutout innings Thursday, striking out six in a 1-0 win. He has a 1.29 ERA against Arizona this season. And the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in Washington.
Joe Gavazzi
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1.5 +100
Red Sox bring up sacrificial lamb, Owens, from Pawtucket tonight, where he issued 4.1 walks per 9 innings. Not a good omen for a Boston team who is on a 5-13 slide and stands just 1-6 in this series. The Yankees continue to maintain their 5 ½ game lead on Baltimore and Toronto in the AL East, while leaving Boston in their wake (13 games back). Credit a current 15-6 NYY run, including the last 9 games in which they have plated 77 runs. Though Tanaka may not be as dominant as in previous seasons, he has been outstanding from this mound. Yankees have won 6 of his 8 home starts in which he has a 1.07 PLAY ON home WHIP. Run line players take note, 43 of 59 NYY victories have come by 2 or more runs while 46 of 59 Boston losses have come by 2 or more runs, including 23 of 32 on the road.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St Louis Cardinals -1.5 +133
We move to the run line with this selection, knowing that 22 of 27 (81%) of St. Louis’ road victories have been by 2 or more runs and that 17 of 23 (74%) of Cincinnati’s home losses have been by 2 or more runs. We feel confident making the play because of the revenge factor in this pitching matchup, as well as DeSclafani’s poor performance on this field. These two starters matched up last week in St. Louis with DeSclafani working 7 innings, allowing no runs on 3 hits in a 1-0 win vs. the Cards. But, DeSclafani has been a disaster from this mound. In 9 starts, he is 2-5 with a 5.69 ERA. That includes 11 2/3 IP in his most recent 2 starts, in which he allowed 12 runs. The clincher is his 1.65 PLAY AGAINST home WHIP at Great American Ballpark. Lackey was on the other side of that 1-0 loss, working 8 innings, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits with 8 Ks. That improved his history against the Reds in 6 recent starts to a 2.78 ERA, and his recent current form in 9 starts to a 1.71 ERA. Look for the Cards and Lackey to get their revenge tonight against DeSclafani and the Reds who remain 19 games behind St. Louis in the standings.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA +103 over San Francisco
Jake Peavy has been on the DL most of this year after two starts in early April. He’s made five starts since returning in early July and those starts look pretty good on paper with a 2-1 record to go along with a 2.14 ERA. However, his last two starts were both at AT&T Park against Milwaukee and Oakland. Respectively, Milwaukee and Oakland are batting .155 and .211 over their past seven games. He also had a home start versus the Mets before the trade deadline. In his other two starts since returning, Peavy was hit hard in Arizona and turned in a decent effort vs. Washington despite giving up four walks through six innings before coughing up a two-run HR in the seventh. In other words, it’s all smoke and mirrors. Peavy’s yo-yo ERA symbolizes how much he has bounced around over the last two years. Three years of eroding skills - as shown in xERA and other trends - confirm consistent sub-4.00 ERA days are behind him. Peavy has 14 K’s over 25 innings since returning. His swing and miss rate is 7% and his xERA is 4.41. The Giants are stuck with his 9M per year salary and are therefore obligated to try to get the most out of him. We’re under so such obligation.
On the road, the Braves are 21-38. Atlanta is a different team at home, where they are a very respectable 27-20. Atlanta was down 6-0 last night in the opener of this series but rallied back to win it in extra frames. Shelby Miller has 31 K’s in his last 31 innings and now has 111 K’s in 132 innings overall. It gets even better. Miller’s line-drive rate has decreased from 18% this season to 16% over his last five games to 14% over his last two games. In his last start, Miller was roughed up by the Phillies (11 hits in six innings) but all 11 hits were singles so the stat line is a little misleading. Dude was singled to death. Miller comes in with a 2.44 ERA after 21 starts and one of the best dominant starts/disaster starts splits in the majors. The Braves have lost each of Millers last eight starts. He’s had a combined nine runs of support over those eight games. With a 53% groundball rate to go along with all those other elite stats, Miller remains one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Peavy favored over Miller is as wrong as it gets.
Boston +170 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yankees are a tough team to read. They put up crooked numbers frequently with a lineup that has made a lot of bad pitchers look good this year. For example, over their last 10 games, the Yanks are 6-4. They scored 12, 13, 21, 6, 7 and 8 runs respectively in those six victories. However, they were held to 1 run by Phil Hughes, to 2 runs by Colby Lewis and to 2 runs by John Danks in three of their four losses over those last 10 games. Their other loss over that span was in Texas by a score of 7-6. This is a polarizing Yankees squad that cannot be trusted in this price range and neither can Masahiro Tanaka. Pitching with a partially-torn UCL hasn't turned Tanaka into a different pitcher. His strikeout, swing and miss and first pitch strike rates are all in line with last season's terrific debut.However, this marks the second straight year of Tanaka displaying a propensity for giving up long balls. Pitching in Yankee Stadium (+29% LHB HR) doesn't help matters. Tanaka has somehow managed to maintain both last year's skills and velocity in spite of his elbow tear. Still, corresponding upticks in fly-balls and hr/f% have hurt him, and it's now hard to say when or if the latter will regress. Despite the 1H success, Tanaka still feels like a ticking time bomb, and thus, it's a dangerous game to guess whether he'll avoid self-destructing from game to game. What we know for sure is that he has seven wins in 14 starts and an ERA of 3.80. Those are beatable numbers.
As Rick Porcello goes on the DL, the Red Sox called up Henry Owens to make his major league debut. The 6'6", 220-pound lefty was Boston's #1 prospect for 2015 and was their #1 pick in 2011 out of high school. Now only 23, Owens is a tall and lanky strikeout artist who was the Eastern League pitcher of the year in 2014 after leading the league in K’s. Owens has a plus fastball that reaches 94 mph, and a plus change-up that sits in the low-80s. Reports had him working on his average curve early this year, and the results have been encouraging, for developing that curve gives him three weapons. Despite some command issues (a career 4 BB/9), his WHIP is typically low as he gets groundballs and strikeouts that wipe out base runners before they can score. There is more good news too. Owens has improved in recent weeks by allowing just 2.2 BB’s/9 while striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings over his last 9 starts. In 21 games at Pawtucket this year, Owens posted an oppBA of just .193. This kid can pitch. He’s very likely going to be a fixture in the rotation for years but it’s still somewhat of a roll of the dice on a first time starter. Thing is, Owens and the Red Sox are taking back a big price that is worth grabbing. When a team is seeing someone for the first time, strange things can happen. A Red Sox victory here wouldn’t be strange at all.
Houston +100 over TEXAS
Dan Straily has made just two starts in MLB this season. His last start came on July 8 against Cleveland in which he threw 95 pitches over six innings and allowed just three hits and two earned runs. Straily has been working out of the rotation at Fresno this year with very good results. He failed to make the Astros rotation out of spring training but he’s not a bad security option to fill in from time to time. Straily still has the potential to be a factor in any rotation at this level and all it’s going to take is a tweak or two to get him there. Houston is turning a lot of pitchers with potential into factors at this level (see Lance McCullers, Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh) and Straily is another one of their projects. Straily is a former minor-league strikeout king. He still possesses wicked off-speed stuff that generates a ton of strikeouts. In his recent two starts, Straily’s swing and miss rate was 12% to go along with a solid 57% groundball rate. We’re not going to say there isn’t a risk here but this is a guy with good stuff and a lot to prove. Besides, even if he has a poor game, we still like the Astros chances of winning.
Yovani Gallardo comes in with a 3.39 ERA after 22 starts. Don’t believe any of it for a second. Gallardo’s charmed life is about to be exposed because he has one red flag after another attached to his profile. Gallardo's velocity, which peaked at 93 mph in 2011, has steadily fallen, and now sits around 90 mph. The corresponding drop in his K’s/swing and miss rate isn't surprising. Here’s a guy that has allowed 48 walks and struck out just 84 batters in 127 innings. His groundball/line-drive split since the beginning of June is 40%/26%. His swing and miss rate over that same span is 6%. Gallardo’s xERA over his past dozen starts is 6.72. In Gallardo’s last start against the Yanks, he struck out one batter in six innings and walked two. This guy is hanging on by a thread but his surface stats have not been damaged yet. Put Yovani Gallardo at or near the top of your fade list because he's one of the worst starts in the league. Now facing Crash City at Globe Life Park, this would be the perfect time to begin that fade.
Brandon Lee
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -117
While Milwaukee enters this matchup riding a 6-game losing streak and the Padres have won 8 of 10, I think there's some great value here on the home team at this line. The Brewers will be sending out Jimmy Nelson, who hasn't allowed a run in 2 straight starts. During this stretch, he's only given up 7 hits in 14 innings. With Nelson red-hot and Padres' Andrew Cashner a complete mess on the road (4.73 ERA, 1.327 WHIP in 12 road starts), Milwaukee should have no problem securing a rare victory in this one. San Diego is just 13-29 in their last 42 road games after playing 5 or more consecutive games on the road.
Steve Rosen
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -107
The Texas Rangers will get their sixth win in seven games when they host the American League West-rival Houston Astros in the middle contest of their three-game series Tuesday. Texas claimed the opener on Monday, outlasting Houston 12-9 as Adrian Beltre hit for the cycle and drove in three runs.The Rangers improved to 5-3 on their 10-game homestand while the Astros kicked off their nine-game road trip with their first loss in three contests. Straily is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Fresno to make his third start of the season in place of newcomer Mike Fiers, who was used out of the bullpen on Monday. The 26-year-old Straily received no-decisions at Cleveland and Boston early last month, yielding a total of seven runs - six earned - in 10 2/3 innings. The native of California has a 4.23 ERA in seven career turns against Texas.Gallardo's winless drought reached six starts Thursday as he managed to escape with a no-decision against the New York Yankees after surrendering five runs and eight hits in six innings. I expect a solid bounce back game for him and he will get that W tonight!