Will Rogers
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1½ +107
The Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry is probably the most storied in all of sports. The latest chapter begins tonight in the Bronx, where the Yankees have won 21 of their last 28. The Red Sox are looking to snap a six game road losing streak, and it's not going to be easy with a rookie pitcher making his debut.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Red Sox called up 23 year old left-hander Henry Owens who will replace the injured Rick Porcello. He's facing the hottest lineup in the majors, so don't be surprised if he gets knocked out of this one in the early innings. The Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who has won four straight starts at Yankee Stadium.
2. Chase Headley - The Yankees veteran third-baseman is hitting .397 since the All Star break, and he comes into tonight's game riding an 11 game hitting streak. He's hitting .306 with a pair of home runs and five RBIs against the Red Sox this year. The Yankees are hard to beat when they are getting that kind of production from the bottom of the lineup.
3. X-Factor - The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter, and they lead the majors in runs scored versus left-handed pitching.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit Tigers -103
Detroit is showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Royals, who have dropped 4 of 5. The biggest key here is the starting pitching matchup, which I believe favors the Tigers.
Whether it's just a mini-stretch of success or sign of things to come, Detroit's Justin Verlander has been dominant in his last 2 starts. Giving up just 1 earned run in 8 innings during both outings. I think it's well worth the risk here to gamble on Verlander keeping it going and throwing another gem. He is 19-7 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.180 WHIP over 35 career starts against the Royals.
KC will counter with lefty Danny Duffy, who just gave up 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings of a loss at Toronto. Duffy is just 2-3 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.426 WHIP over 7 road starts. Adding value here is the fact that the Tigers are hitting a strong .286 with a .354 OBP in 25 games this season against left-handed starters.
Tigers are 32-17 in their last 49 games after a win by 1 run, 37-16 in their last 53 home games against a left-handed starter and 42-19 in Verlander's last 61 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Cajun Sports
St. Louis Cardinals (-) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds just played a three-game set back in the last week of July. The Cards were in the midst of an eleven game home stand when the Reds came to town. The home field held no real advantage for the Cards as the Reds held the upper hand in that series taking two of the three games in the Gateway City. The Cards look for some redemption as they open a six-game road swing beginning in the Queen City. We have a pitching rematch as the Reds Anthony Desclafani faces off against the Cards John Lackey. Desclanfani and the Reds defeated Lackey and the Cards 1 to 0 behind two solid pitching performances. We look for the Cardinals and Lackey to get their revenge and we have a solid MLB system that supports our play. We want to play AGAINST MLB underdogs when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last outing. This system has a record of 866-587 SU for 59.6 percent winners and a profit of +5913 Units. With solid support for the Cardinals we will back them on Tuesday night.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Cincinnati
Pick: St. Louis -125
The St. Louis Cardinals have been the best team in baseball this season. One reason has been the fact that they take the field on most nights with a solid pitching advantage. That will again be the case tonight as the Cardinals send John Lackey to the mound with his 9-6 record and 2.78 ERA on the season. He will be opposed by right-hander Anthony DeSclafani for the Reds. The key here is the fact that St. Louis is taking on a righty. They have absolutely dominated right-handed pitching this season where they are 53-24 which has given them a +23.2% ROI against righties. Left-handers have been their demise, where they are 14-14 on the season at -10.2% ROI. It's hard to buck these odds, and the Cards have been 6-0 in their last six as road chalk from -110 to -150. Take St. Louis in this one.
Andrew Lange
Minnesota at Toronto
Play: Toronto -160
Few pitchers are as hittable as Minnesota's Phil Hughes as he allowed 158 hits and 25 home runs in 135.2 innings. Adding to that is the fact that he's only fanned 80 batters. Hughes as we know is an extreme fly ball pitcher which suggests that his 4.11 ERA has nowhere to go but up moving forward. He walks into a tough spot tonight with having to navigate Toronto's lineup in the Rogers Centre. Note also that despite coming from the right side, Hughes' split are far worse against right-handed batters (.308 BA/.540 SLG) which we know the Jay have plenty of. Like Hughes, Marco Estrada is a big time fly baller but has somehow managed to keep the home runs in check (7.2% FB/HR rate). Estrada continues to keep batters off balance with an array of offspeed pitches which has led to a very respectable 3.53 ERA. It's a number that I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain but I give him the edge over Hughes who as mentioned, is walking into arguably his toughest start of the season. Seeing a few shops with sub -160 price tags which is the way I'll go with the home side.
Jimmy Boyd
Oakland Athletics +104
While these two teams are headed in different directions, I believe there's more than enough value here on the A's as a home dog. Even though the Orioles won the series opener last night, they are still just 20-30 on the road in 2015. The biggest key here is the starting pitching matchup, which heavily favors the A's. Oakland will send out Chris Bassitt, who despite a 0-4 record in 5 starts, has a strong 3.00 ERA and 1.033 WHIP. Bassitt has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a single start. Baltimore will counter with Miguel Gonzalez, who has a 4.59 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in 9 road starts and a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 outings. I'm confident the A's will be able to generate enough offense here to get the win. Baltimore is just 3-9 in their last 12 road games against a right-handed starter and 1-4 in their last 5 road games as a favorite. Orioles are also a miserable 8-22 in their last 30 road games played at night.
Vegas Butcher
Houston Astros -102
One big critical factor in this game is the status of each of these respective team’s bullpens. Houston’s #3 ranked unit is fully rested and ready to go. Rangers’ 30th ranked group isn’t in as good of a shape. Tolleson (their closer) threw yesterday and has appeared in 5 of the last 6 days. Dyson threw in 3 straight games. And Diekman received a day off yesterday, after throwing in 3 straight prior to it. Once again, I want to reiterate that this is a 30th ranked unit in the league and they’re not in the best of shape from the fatigue standpoint going into tonight.
Part of the reason why I think bullpens is a huge factor in tonight’s matchup, is Gallardo’s inability to eat up innings lately. In his last 6 starts he’s averaged 5.1 innings per start. In addition he’s registered more BB’s (20) than K’s (13) during this time-span. His average SIERA is 6.2 during this time-span, a number that would make him by far the worst pitcher in the league if prorated over a full season (Chi Chi Gonzalez, another Rangers pitcher consequently, currently has the worst mark at 5.6 on the year). I think as the season has gone on, and these AL teams have seen Gallardo more and more, they’ve had much more success against him lately. Gallardo registered a 3.2 SIERA against Houston on 04/11, his first start against them, and a miserable 6.7 mark on 07/19, when he faced them for the 2nd time. At the same time, Gallardo’s 5.9 xFIP in the month of July has been the worst mark of the season for him. Clearly, this is a pitcher that is really struggling right now.
As far as Straily, there are a couple of things to like with him. His slider/changeup have been effective pitches so far (only 2 starts on the year), which should help in hopefully keeping Rangers’ lefty hitters at bay. In addition, his 23% K-rate has been excellent as well as his 11.2% SwStr%. Hitters aren’t picking up his stuff very well right now, and since he last faced the Rangers in April of 2014, hopefully it’ll take Texas hitters a few times through the rotation to develop a feel for Straily’s stuff. He is definitely throwing more sliders and changeups this year than he did last season, so Rangers will be facing a different pitcher than in the past. I think the overall pitching advantage goes to the Astros in this matchup, and they’re also a slightly more effective offensive team on the year as well (#4 vs #12 for Texas). My model projects this one at -122 Houston so I’ll grab a little bit of ‘value’ with them in this one as well.
Detroit Tigers (1st 5 Innings ONLY) -110
Here are Verlander’s last 4 starts:
@ TB: 8.0 inn; 4 hits; 1 run; 10 to 0 K:BB
@ BOS: 8.0 inn; 7 hits; 1 run; 3 to 0 K:BB
Vs BAL: 3.2 inn; 8 hits; 7 runs; 4 to 1 K:BB
@ MIN: 7.2 inn; 5 hits; 1 run; 6 to 1 K:BB
He’s had 3 excellent starts and one really bad one in this span. But overall, his 23 to 2 K:BB ratio in the last 20.1 innings of work has been excellent. Duffy on the other hand has really struggled lately. His 5.7/5.2 FIP/xFIP in July has been by far the worst month of his year, as he’s issued 12 BB’s to only 12 K’s in his 32.1 innings of work in the month. Now he’ll get to face a Tigers offense that ranks 2nd against lefties on the season and 5th overall over the last 30-days. Remember, Miggy has been on the shelf for about a month, yet Tigers’ offense continues to produce. Even without Cespedes, this is still a very strong unit. Besides, Duffy ranks 165th against right-handers on the season, the worst mark out of any pitcher in my database. His 5.3/5.0 FIP/xFIP against them is atrocious, and you can expect at least 7 or 8 right-handers in the lineup for the Tigers tonight. My model has this one at -122 Tigers, providing some solid value on them in this one. And of course there’s a huge mismatch between both teams’ bullpens, so 1st 5 Innings is a much better play tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The Oakland recommendation surely did not work last night, but Monday starter Jesse Chavez has effectively disappeared in the occasional start.. Not nearly as sure that happens tonight with young Chris Bassitt, who has been more than serviceable for the A's in recent starts vs. the Indians and Giants and has a solid 2.63 ERA in three appearances at the Coliseum this season. Recent form of Baltimore starter Miguel Gonzalez has been very erratic, and note Oakland's season-long pattern of bunching runs together.
ASA
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Chicago Cubs -131
The Cubs and Pirates were not able to complete five innings in last night’s games with both teams burning through top pitchers. The edge on the mound for Tuesday looks squarely with Chicago as Jake Arrieta takes the hill. He has been Chicago’s best pitcher and one of the top pitchers in the NL this season. In 21 starts Arrieta is yet to allow more than four earned runs while allowing three or fewer runs in 17 of those 21 starts including each of his last eight outings. He holds a better than 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with his ERA down to 2.62, actually pitching even better away from Wrigley Field. He has two excellent starts against Pittsburgh under his belt this season as well. J. A. Happ will make his Pirates debut after posting mediocre results for the Mariners this season. The left-hander started the season pitching fairly well but he has allowed three or more runs in each of his last nine starts and moving to a more offense-friendly park is not likely to help his cause. Chicago has good numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season with a 13-8 season record and the recent bullpen numbers are in favor of Chicago as well with the Cubs allowing a total of just 10 runs on the current five-game win streak. This is a huge series for Chicago as they look to close the current four-game gap with the Pirates in the NL Central standings and the Cubs are 30-23 on the road this season. Pittsburgh has a great home record but Happ looks overmatched against Arrieta for his first start back in the NL.
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals -119
We are getting the St. Louis Cardinals at a very generous price as slim road favorites against the Cincinnati Reds today. The Cards are 29 games over .500 while the Reds are 9 games below .500, so we're clearly getting the better team, but we're also getting the better starter in this one as well. John Lackey has been brilliant in St. Louis, going 9-6 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in 21 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three. Lackey is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.841 WHIP in six lifetime starts versus Cincinnati. Anthony Desclafini is 6-7 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in 20 starts for the Reds. While he has been great on the road, Desclafini is 2-5 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in nine home starts this year. St. Louis is 13-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line after 7 or more consecutive home games this season. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games following an off day. The Cardinals are 54-20 in their last 74 games as a favorite.
Doug Upstone
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Play: New York Mets -128
Play On road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the N.Y. METS off a win of six runs or more over a division rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. The history of teams like this is methodical off such a win 60-20 the last five seasons including 9-3 in 2015.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -113
The Baltimore Orioles (54-51) have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and currently sit tied with three teams for the final wild card spot in the American League. I look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Oakland A's (47-60), who own the worst record in the AL.
Miguel Gonzalez isn't having his best season as a pro, but he has still gone 9-7 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 19 starts to eat up some quality innings for the Orioles.
Chris Bassitt has actually pitched pretty well for the A's this season despite not earning a single win all year. He has gone 0-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.106 WHIP over 40 2/3 innings pitched. Those solid numbers in that limited workload have him overvalued here.
Gonzalez is 7-0 (+7.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. The Orioles are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last four road starts. The A's are 18-44 in their last 62 games as an underdog.
Scott Delaney
Quite honestly, I could simply write that I am not a fan of Williams, and he's the main reason, and I wouldn't be lying. But I'm not sure how much you'd appreciate that analysis. That is the truth, though, as I've never - EVER - been impressed by the big right-hander. I've always called him a C.C. Sabathia wanna-be.
He has a 5.91 ERA in two starts since returning from the disabled list, and I don't know how effective he will be against the surging Los Angeles Dodgers, who are looking to distance themselves in the National League West.
Wood debuts for the Dodgers after an extended rest, as the 24-year-old last pitched on July 27 against Baltimore. He fired 7-1/3 scoreless innings and struck out seven in his final appearance before being traded in a 13-player, 3-team deal that brought him over from Atlanta.
This won't be pretty for the Phils, as Wood is going to neutralize a lineup he is used to seeing, and Williams is going to stink up the joint. Dodgers win big.
1* DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Under in the Royals-Tigers game.
I am well aware of the Tigers 29-9-2 Over run they bring into this game, but it sure looks like Justin Verlander has regained some vintage form his last pair of trips to the hill, allowing one run over 8 innings in back-to-back starts. Both games holding Under the total.
Danny Duffy counters and each of his last 6 starts have ALL held below the total.
Series numbers show the teams having played Unders in 4 of their last 6 meetings, and 6 of their last 9 meetings overall since last season.
Rare Low in the Motor City tonight, as Verlander continues his uptick.
3* KANSAS CITY-DETROIT UNDER