SPORTS ADVISORS
Colorado (58-47) at Philadelphia (59-44)
Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Reds in Cincinnati, the Rockies resume their 10-game road trip when they send Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66 ERA) to the mound opposite the Phillies’ Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32) at Citizens Bank Park.
Colorado got two runs in the 11th inning on Sunday and topped the Reds 6-4, then took Monday off. The Rockies started their road trip with three straight losses to the Mets by the combined score of 18-3, but they’ve won the last four, all by multiple runs. Colorado, which leads the N.L. Wild-Card race, is on surges of 38-15 overall, 20-8 on the road and 12-4 in series openers.
Philadelphia, which also was idle Monday, concluded its seven-game road trip by losing four of its last five, including Sunday’s 7-3 setback at San Francisco. Still, the defending champs are on positive streaks of 20-7 overall, 14-3 at home, 5-2 after a loss, 7-3 following a day off and 37-18 on Tuesday.
The Phillies have taken seven of the last eight series clashes with Colorado dating to the start of last season, including winning two of three at Coors Field in the opening week of this season.
The Rockies have lost three straight games behind Hammel, including Thursday’s 7-0 setback at the Mets, with the right-hander giving up five runs on seven hits in a season-low 1 1/3 innings. Over his last five outings, Hammel has surrendered 18 runs (all earned) in 21 2/3 innings (7.48 ERA). Despite the implosion at Citi Field against the Mets, Hammel is still 4-3 with a solid 2.67 ERA on the highway, giving up just two home runs in 57 1/3 innings. He has yet to face the Phillies in his career.
Moyer scattered six hits and four walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings at Arizona in his most recent start on July 27, with Philadelphia prevailing 6-2. It was the second time in his last three starts that Moyer pitched scoreless baseball, but both of those outings were on the road. He’s struggled at Citizens Bank this year, going 4-5 with a 6.83 ERA in 10 starts.
With Moyer on the mound, Philadelphia is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday and 25-8 when opening a series. However, the 46-year-old southpaw has struggled with Colorado in his career, going 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA in five starts, but the one victory was a 20-5 blowout win at home last May.
These clubs have been involved in shootouts lately, as the “over” is 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings overall and 10-4-1 in the last 15 clashes in Philadelphia (playoffs included). The “over” is also 4-1 in the Phillies’ last five at home. Conversely, Philadelphia carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 5-2 versus the N.L. West and 10-3 in Moyer’s last 13 starts. Similarly, the Rockies are on “under” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 5-1-1 with Hammel on the mound and 4-0-1 with Hammel working on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (62-42) at Tampa Bay (58-48)
The Red Sox continue their nine-game A.L. East road trip with a brief two-game stop at Tropicana Field, with Jon Lester (9-7, 3.90) scheduled to pitch opposite the Rays’ Matt Garza (7-8, 3.69).
Boston has won four in a row, including a three-game weekend sweep at Baltimore that was capped by Sunday’s 18-10 rout. The Red Sox, who were off on Monday, have busted out offensively in a big way, scoring six runs or more in six of their last seven games, averaging 8.3 runs per game during this stretch. In addition to winning its last four in a row, Terry Francona’s crew is on runs of 40-13 after an off day, 19-7 against A.L. East rivals and 4-1 in series openers, but it has lost 27 of its last 39 games played on artificial turf.
Tampa Bay took down the Royals 10-4 on Monday afternoon, yet has only split its last eight games. In fact, the defending American League champs are just 14-13 in their last 27 overall (8-5 at home). On the bright side, the Rays are on upticks of 91-38 at Tropicana Field going back to 2008, 9-3 at home against lefty starters, 5-2 in series openers and 4-0 on Tuesday.
Tampa Bay holds a 6-4 lead in the season series with Boston, though the teams have alternated wins and losses in the last six contests. Going back to last September – and including the A.L. Championship Series between the clubs – the Red Sox have lost seven of their last 10 at Tropicana Field, going 1-3 this year.
Lester’s run of six straight quality starts and 10 consecutive outings allowing three earned runs or fewer came to halt Thursday against the A’s, as he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. However, Red Sox rallied for an 8-5 victory, improving to 9-2 in the lefty’s last 11 starts. Furthermore, with Lester on the bump, the Red Sox are on runs of 49-22 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Lester is 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 10 road starts this season, but 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last five road efforts. On the downside, he’s faced the Rays twice this season – both at home – and got walloped in both contests, giving up five runs in five innings of a 7-2 loss on April 8 and yielding eight runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 14-5 defeat exactly a month later. Boston has lost four straight games to the Rays with Lester pitching, including two playoff contests last October.
Garza has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, including Thursday when he limited the Yankees to three runs on eight hits and three walks in seven innings, but he lost 6-2. Tampa Bay is just 5-7 in Garza’s last 12 trips to the mound, including 2-3 at home, where the right-hander is 4-4 despite a solid 3.36 ERA In 11 starts.
Garza is 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this year and 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in his last five outings against Boston (including two playoff wins in October). Additionally, with Garza facing the Sox, Tampa Bay is on runs of 6-1 overall and 5-0 in Florida.
Boston is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 7-3-1 on Tuesday, 6-2-1 against the A.L. East, 14-6-3 in series openers, 7-2-1 after a day off and 9-1-3 when Lester begins a series. Similarly, Tampa Bay is riding “under” streaks of 38-17-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home, 11-3 in divisional play, 5-1 versus lefty starters, 13-3 against winning teams and 4-0 on Tuesday. Also, with Garza pitching, the “under” is on stretches of 35-16-2 overall (11-1 last 12), 4-1 at home and 5-0 against the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
DUNKEL
Arizona at Pittsburgh
The Diamondbacks look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is just 1-5 in Zach Duke's last 6 starts. Arizona is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+140).
Game 951-952: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.289; Washington (Martin) 15.356
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+170); Under
Game 953-954: Arizona at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 16.591; Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.119
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+140); Over
Game 955-956: Colorado at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 16.284; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.100
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over
Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.905; Cincinnati (Cueto) 12.843
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); Under
Game 959-960: St. Louis at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.061; NY Mets (Santana) 15.874
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over
Game 961-962: San Francisco at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.770; Houston (Paulino) 15.102
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over
Game 963-964: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.125; San Diego (Stauffer) 15.256
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+170); Over
Game 965-966: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.883; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.574
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Over
Game 967-968: Baltimore at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 14.295; Detroit (Washburn) 15.058
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-230); Under
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.332; Cleveland (Huff) 16.090
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Over
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.809; Toronto (Halladay) 16.826
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-145); Over
Game 973-974: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.423; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.799
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over
Game 975-976: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 13.586; Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.566
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under
Game 977-978: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 16.815; White Sox (Contreras) 16.942
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Over
Game 979-980: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.698; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Over
WNBA
New York at Detroit
The Liberty and new coach Anne Donovan look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. New York is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2).
Game 601-602: San Antonio at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 106.598; Los Angeles 114.108
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 155 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 143
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-3); Over
Game 603-604: New York at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.151; Detroit 110.828
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 142 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 5 1/2; 150
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2); Under
Game 605-606: Phoenix at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 115.287; Seattle 114.487
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 175
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 3; 172
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3); Over
Craig Trapp
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LAA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Over 9
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The best over team in the league lately has been LAA as they have gone over the total in 10 straight games. In fact they have gone over total in 22 of last 28 games! Lackey usually goes 7 inning and gives up 2-3 runs. But the bullpen is where many of the runs have been given up by LAA. Contreras on the other hand gives up almost 1 run per inning and against the hottest hitting team in the league he might even give up more. LAA get at least 7 runs today and CHW score at least 4 runs. This one has the makings of a really high scoring game as both teams bats have been super HOT and the over trend for LAA is hard to ignore. TAKE THE OVER 9
Brad Diamond Sports
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St.Louis over NY Mets
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Hard pressed to go again hurler Johan Santana, but right-handed Cardinal pitcher Joel Pineiro has been on fire of late. In his last three team starts St. Louis is 3-0, while the veteran hurler is carrying an 0.86 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in that time span. In fact, the Cards are a perfect 5-0 with Pineiro versus the Mets. We know the Mets have won 22 of the last 32 starts with Santana, but the Cards are in the hunt for a flag and have a much more talented lineup after the trading deadline.
Red Dog Sports
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Boston at Tampa Bay
Play under 8.5
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The Red Sox have played 7 unders and 2 overs in their last 9 on the road and the Rays have played unders 38-16-2 in their last 56 overall games. These two have combined for 88 overs and 109 unders and Garza and Lester have 13 overs and 25 unders when starting. Look for another under on Tuesday night!
Triple Threat Sports
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Take the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians
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Tribe has not been able to handle prosperity this season, going 13-30 after a win, and that was with Lee, DeRosa, Martinez, Garko and the rest of the veterans still wearing Indian attire. Hard to imagine this kiddle corp being appreciably better in that situation. Twins starter Baker has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts and has struck out 20 in that span (against just five walks), a stark contrast to that of Tribe starter Huff to that of Huff, who has allowed 23 hits in his last 19 innings of work.
Marc Lawrence
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Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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The Angels meet the White Sox in the opener of a three-game series in the Windy City tonight when John Lackey opposes Jose Contreras at Comiskey Park. Lackey enters with team starts wins in each of his last four starts while compiling a 1.45 ERA in those games. On the flip side, Contreras is winless in his last three team starts and just 1-6 in his last seven starts in August. With that we'll back the Halos and their ace here tonight.
ALEX SMART
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Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies (58-47) enter this game against the defending World Series champion Phillies(59-44) wide awake and prepared stay on track after sweeping Cincinnati in a three-game set this past weekend. The Rockies have a good chance of keeping their winning ways alive vs a Philly pitcher Jamie Moyer(10-7,5.32 ERA) that has gone 0-4 along with a bloated 5.54 ERA in four previous starts versus Colorado. I know Philadelphia has been hot at home winning 14 of their L/17 at Citizens Bank Park, but tonight those numbers Im betting will take a negative hit. Final notes & Key Trends: Phillies are 0-4 in Moyers last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Rockies are 13-4 in their last 17 games as a road underdog....Play on the Colorado Rockies
LEE KOSTROSKI
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Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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The Phillies are back at home after losing four of five to close a west coast trip and the offense has disappeared, scoring just 20 runs in the seven-game trip. Philadelphia is batting .243 in the last ten games and returning home after coast-to-coast travel is never an easy situation. Jamie Moyer has continued to pitch for the Phillies and he occasionally is pitching exceptionally well, but his ERA is still 5.32 and he has just 65 strikeouts in over 113 innings of work. The Phillies are just 5-5 in his home starts where his ERA is 6.83 at the offense friendly Citizens Bank Park.
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Philadelphia has been a much worse team at home than on the road and the Rockies have actually been a strong road team as well, with a 31-26 record. Colorado leads the Wild Card race despite having played nine more road games than home games this season and this will be an easier travel situation than normal for the Rockies as they already are on the east coast. The Rockies enter this series having won four consecutive games and the Rockies are on a 38-15 run overall since early June including going 10-5 in the last 15 games against left-handed starters.
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Jason Hammel owns just a 5-6 record but he has been a reliable option in the Colorado rotation. Hammel owns a 2.84 strikeout-to-walk ratio and Colorado is 9-4 in his last 13 outings. In his road starts Hammel owns an ERA of just 2.67 and most of the Phillies hitters will have never have faced him as this is his first year in the National League. The Colorado bullpen has been a weak spot at times this season but in the last ten games the unit owns a 2.73 ERA. The Rockies are 20-8 in the last 28 road games and this could be a strong opportunity to play Colorado as an underdog against the Phillies in a tough travel spot and appearing to be in an offensive rut.
Rob Vinciletti
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Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Florida Marlins -1½
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The Marlins have the Nationals number this year.They have won all 9 meetings between the two teams.Most impressive is that 8 of those 9 wins have been by 2 runs or more.The Marlins also fit a solid 10-2 system that plays on certain road favorites off a home favored 1 run win that scored 4 runs or less runs.This system wins by an average 6-2 score.In Florida's road wins this year they have won 21 of of 26 times by 2 runs or more.When Washington loses at home its usually not pretty.The Nationals have lost 25 of their 33 home losses by 2 or more runs.The National are 0-5 in the second half vs winning opponents,while the Marlins are 6-2 vs losing opponents in that same time frame.Tonight the Marlins have their ace on the mound.J.Johnson and the Marlins have won 7 of his 10 road starts this year,as he has a solid 3.64 era.on the road this year and 3.20 over his last 3 outings.The Marlns have won all 7 of his career starts vs the Nationals.Washington has J.D.Martin on the mound tonight and he is making just his 4th start this year.In 12 innings he has a 7.50 era.Look for another comfortable win here for Florida.
JIM FEIST
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CHICAGO CUBS / CINCINNATI REDS
TAKE OVER
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The Reds have been in a terrible slump because of pitching, giving up 5 runs or more in 5 straight games. Young Reds' hurler Johnny Cueto has been part of the problem, at 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA his last three starts. For the Cubs, Ted Lilly and Carlos Zambrano are hurting, so Tom Gorzelanny (5.19 ERA) starts here. He catches a break in that the Chicago offense has been crushing the ball the last three weeks. Look for plenty of offense in this one, play the Cubs/Reds over the total.
DAVE COKIN
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SEATTLE MARINERS / KANSAS CITY ROYALS
TAKE SEATTLE MARINERS
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Luke Hochevar has pitched pretty well lately for the Royals. But KC is an absolutely awful team right now, and they're and they have a lineup that doesn't match up well against lefties. The Mariners got a big effort last time out from Ryan Rowland-Smith and he can shut down this opponent as well. I'll lean Seattle's way tonight.
Karl Garrett
Colorado at PHILADELPHIA
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G-Man on a 17-9 comp play run the last 26 days.
Got a feeling Jason Hammel, and Jamie Moyer are going to be getting hit, and hit hard this Tuesday night in Philadelphia.
Moyer has been on a nice run of late, as his ERA is under 2 for his last 3 starts, but you know damn well that a clunker is never too far away when you are Moyer's age.
Remember that Moyer's ERA at home is a hefty 6.83 this year, and his last 2 starts against the Rockies have seen 9 runs score in 13 innings of work.
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Hammel counters, and he has just been downright awful his last 2 trips to the bump, with 8 runs scoring in just 7 innings of work for an 0-2 mark.
These teams have played 3 times this season, and all 3 have gone OVER the total. In the last 7 meetings in the City of Brotherly Love, 5 have eclipsed the posted price.
Take the OVER in Philly on Tuesday.
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4♦ OVER
Dominic Fazzini
Atlanta at SAN DIEGO
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The Braves' offense has been scuffling lately, leading to Atlanta losing seven of its last 11 games. The team has scored seven runs while batting .190 in its last four games.
The Braves have two things going for them today, though. They have Javier Vazquez on the mound, and they are playing the lowly Padres.
Vazquez (8-7, 3.01 ERA) has become the team's ace, going 3-0 with a 2.94 in his last five starts, all of which have resulted in Atlanta wins.
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The right-hander, who hasn't faced San Diego since 2005, allowed three runs and five hits with eight strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings Thursday against Florida.
The Padres have won six of their last seven, and starter Tim Stauffer (1-2, 2.57) is coming off his best start of the season, giving up one run and seven hits in seven innings Thursday at Cincinnati.
That's hardly enough to make me bet against Vazquez today. Atlanta is 18-6 in its last 24 games against the Padres, including 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego. Take the Braves on the run line in this one.
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3♦ ATLANTA -1 1/2
Jeff Benton
Boston at TAMPA BAY (PK)
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Tough free-play loss with the Giants on Monday, but I’m on an 18-9 roll with my complimentary releases. For Tuesday, I’ll take the Rays and Matt Garza at a virtual pick-em price at home against the Red Sox.
For starters, when Garza goes up against the Red Sox, his teams win. He’s faced Boston on 10 previous occasions – nine times with Tampa Bay since the start of last season, once with Minnesota in 2007 – and the Red Sox are 2-8 in those contests, including 0-5 at Tropicana Field. Going back to July 1, 2008, the Rays are 6-1 with Garza on the mound against the BoSox, with the six victories coming by the combined score of 42-9. Not only that, but during this seven-start stretch against Boston, Garza gave up a total of nine runs over 46 2/3 innings (1.75 ERA).
On the flip side, the Rays have been like kryptonite to Boston starter Jon Lester ever since last year’s American League Championship Series. Lester faced Tampa Bay twice in that series and gave up eight runs (seven earned) over 12 2/3 innings, losing 9-1 at home and 3-1 on the road. If that wasn’t bad enough, Lester matched up against the Rays twice in the first month of this season and got torched in both games, giving up a total of 13 runs in 9 1/3 innings. I’ll do the math: That’s 21 runs (20 earned) in 22 innings, good for an 8.59 ERA, and Tampa Bay won by scores of 7-2 and 14-5.
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Additionally, Lester comes into this game off a shaky outing against the lowly A’s (four runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings), and he’s just 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA on the road this season. Garza’s home record (4-4) matches Lester’s road record, but his rock-solid 3.36 ERA in his own ballpark is more than full run lower than Lester’s road ERA.
Finally, even though Boston has won seven of its last 10 games, including the last four in a row, all of those games were played against Oakland and Boston. Prior to that, the Sox had lost five in a row to Texas (three games) and Toronto (two games). In fact, only one of Boston’s last 16 victories going back to June 29 came against a team with a winning record, and that was Seattle. Meanwhile, the Rays are on an incredible 92-38 run on their home turf, and they’ve won four of five at home against the Red Sox going back to Game 7 of the ALCS.
Bottom line: Given Garza’s dominance of the Red Sox (and Lester’s struggles versus Tampa Bay) – plus the fact that Garza’s overall numbers (3.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) are better than Lester’s (3.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) - this line is dirt cheap. Back the home team.
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3♦ TAMPA BAY