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Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday August 4,2009

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Boston at TAMPA BAY (-110)
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Monday comp play winner on San Francisco-Houston UNDER the total. That makes it a 9-3-1 comp play run the last 13 days.

For Tuesday night, we are going with Tampa Bay in their big AL East showdown with Boston.

The Rays have won 4 of their last 6, and they are a rock-solid 34-18 at the Trop this year which includes a 3-1 mark against the Red Sox thus far.

In fact dating back to last year during the regular season, the Rays are a dominant 11-2 versus the Red Sox in their home ball park.

Jon Lester and Matt Garza will have at it in this one, and Lester has not fooled Tampa this season at all. In his 2 starts against Tampa Bay, the southpaw has allowed 13 runs in 9 innings for an 0-2 mark.
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Garza meanwhile is 3-0 his last 5 regular season starts against Boston, allowing just 7 runs in 34 innings of work.

Boston comes in fresh off a weekend sweep of the Orioles, as they have now won 4 in a row. That streak comes to a halt tonight.

Play on Tampa Bay.
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4♦ TAMPA BAY

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 8:12 am
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Matt Rivers

For Tuesday take Johan and the Mets.
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Joel Pineiro has had a great season, don't even look at the record because that is preposterous when you realize how good his ERA is. I also do admit that Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and the Cardinals are much better than the banged up and poor Mets but Johan against Pineiro at home at around a pick is too good to pass up, period.

St. Louis is a competent team right now that has a shot at the playoffs, they really do. If Santana was not on the mound the Redbirds would be justifiably the heavy road chalk here as the Mets are just not very good at the current time without Beltran, Reyes and Delgado. But Jerry Manual's squad has been better of late, meaning at least they have scored some runs and won some games over the last few weeks. They even did just have that five game winning streak. They're still not good, don't get me wrong, but with their ace on the bump should be alright here.
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Santana is still a total blue chip stud. Sure he was rocked at Yankee Stadium awhile back and hit very hard in Houston a few starts ago but the lefty is great many more times than not and should be that today.

The bottom line is that no matter how solid Pineiro has been he is no Santana and no matter how much superior the Cardinal offense is when compared to the New Yorkers Tony LaRussa's squad is still a well below .500 squad ever since the first month of the season and therefore I can't help but make a small play today on the Johan's and take my chances with his offense.
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1♦ Mets

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 8:13 am
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Tony Weston

Of course the Cubs came through yesterday. I told you to play the Run Line on the Cubs, and even though the final score was only 4-2, they still did enough to deliver.
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That’s three straight Comp Play winners and I’m making it four in a row tonight as I’m taking the Cardinals on the road at the Mets.

While the Cardinals come into this game having won 5 of their last 7 games and the Mets come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4, this game is all about the pitching matchup.

Tonight, scheduled to start for the Mets is Johan Santana, who faces off against the Cardinals Joel Pineiro.
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While Santana is obviously the marquee name, he hasn’t produced like it lately. The Mets have gone only 4-5 his last nine starts and are only 2-3 his last five starts against the NL Central.

On the other side, Pineiro has been absolutely dominant. He’s given up only three earned runs in a game once in his last eight starts and has allowed one or no earned runs in six of those eight starts.

Going a little further, the Cardinals are on a perfect 5-0 run in his last five starts where he’s allowed just 5 earned runs in 37 innings of work.

Pencil in Pineiro as your starting pitcher and take St. Louis on the road in this one.
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3♦ CARDINALS

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 8:15 am
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LT Profits

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets
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This posted total between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets may seem low at first glance, but there is a reason it is so low as these teams should struggle to score six runs combined tonight.

This has been a disastrous season for the Mets, who were one of the favorites to reach the World Series before this season started, but a ton if injuries has ravaged their lineup and they now stand at just 50-55 for the season.

Despite their troubles this season, Johan Santana continues to be a constant, as he is 12-8 with a typical 2.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Santana has been even better that that here at the Mets new home Citi Field, which has turned out to be a pitchers park, where he is 8-2 with a sparkling 1.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has faced the Cardinals twice since coming to the Mets last year, and he allowed exactly one run on each occasion.
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Believe it or not, St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro actually has a lower ERA (2.84) and a lower WHIP (1.07) than Santana does this season! He has impressively recorded nine consecutive Quality Starts, and he has now allowed three earned runs or less in 12 of his last13 outings.

Pineiro has been brilliant in two starts vs. the Mets this season, tossing a Complete Game two-hit shutout the last time he faced them here in Citi Field after allowing two runs and six hits in eight innings the first time he faced them at Busch Stadium.

With two hot pitchers that have had proven success vs. their opponent tonight, go Under here even with this low number.
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Pick: Cardinals/Mets Under 7

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 8:58 am
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Freddy Wills

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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We are coming off the loss of a POD last night with the Dodgers as Kershaw could not find the strike zone otherwise we'd be sitting pretty right now, but we are not. Today's free pick is a little bit of a revenge on the Dodgers but only for 2-Dimes a slightly larger Free Play though.
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Kuroda will go for the Dodgers and he's off back to back quality starts vs. Cardinals and Marlins of 6IP 2ER in each. The Dodgers are 25-6 at home as favorites -110 to -150 in their last 31. Milwaukee has never faced Kuroda except in relief in which they are 4-15. It will take at least one trip around the line up. However, that is not why I'm going with the Dodgers tonight. The reason is that Milwaukee is now in Game 2 of the series playing on the west coast 2 hours later than they are used to. Ask any player and he will tell you it's not Game 1 that they are tired it is Game 2. Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 road game 2's and with the Dodgers on revenge and the Brewers 2-9 in their last 11 following a win I feel confident that the Dodgers will get it back together tonight against Gallardo.
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Gallardo will have to rebound from his only start vs. the Dodgers where he went 5 innings and gave up 5ER. Unfortunately for him I just do not see it happening here. Go with the Dodgers as our free play with confidence!

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 9:00 am
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Scott Delaney

Great duel to ensue at pitcher-friendly PETCO Park, as right-handers Javier Vazquez and Tim Stauffer take the hill tonight. The Braves have won each of the past five games Vazquez has started while the only loss he suffered over his past seven outings came was a 1-0 loss to the Red Sox. With Stauffer, he’s delivered three straight quality starts and comes in after producing his best start of the season in a 7-4 win over the Reds last Thursday, when he lasted seven frames and surrendered just one run while scattering seven hits.

Vazquez, who commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, is capable of adding and subtracting from it, while throwing a tight, late-breaking slide to either side of the dish. Keeping batter off balance, which tonight shouldn’t be too hard against the worst-hitting team in the league, Vazquez can change speeds with his curveball, and will turn to his circle-change at any point in the count. With the northpaw on the bump, the Braves are on under runs of 6-1 when he throws on four days rest, 5-0 in Game 2 of a series, 8-1 when he’s installed as the favorite and 9-2 overall.

Stauffer, who is off to a strong start since being promoted from Triple-A Portland on July 11, is pitching well enough to still be in the bigs with a 2.57 ERA over four starts. He’s not fancy, he simply mixes his pitches well and finds his way in and out of the zone effectively to keep hitters guessing. San Diego is on under runs of 8-0 at home, 8-3 as an underdog and 5-1 against right-handed starters.

And in this series, the low number is 6-1 the past seven meetings. This one stays low.

1♦ Braves/Padres UNDER

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 9:09 am
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Tom Freese
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Minnesota at Kannsas City
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Minnesota is 23-9 their last 32 games following a day off and they are 8-1 on Tuesday. The Twins are 6-0 with Scott Baker on the hill as favorites of -110 to -150 and they are 4-0 their last 4 games vs. AL Central teams. Cleveland is 6-13 their last 19 home games and they are 17-40 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Indians are 13-32 off a win and they are 1-8 after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. PLAY ON MINNESOTA -

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 9:20 am
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Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -105
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I'll take the red hot cubs against the ice cold Reds for 1 unit this evening. The Reds have dropped 7 in a row and 13 of their last 14 while the Cubs have won 9 of 12 and 15 of their last 21. Chicago's offense has really started to click and that gives it the edge against baseball's coldest pitcher tonight. The Reds' Cueto had both the majors' worst ERA (8.16) and opponents' batting average (.355) last month. The Reds are 1-4 in Cueto's last 5 starts vs. the Cubs. Gorzelanny is expected to make his debut for the Cubs and I expect the team to rally behind him and give him plenty of run support. The Reds really struggle against lefty starters, averaging just 3.8 runs per game with a .249 batting average. The Cubs are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record and 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with the Reds. Cash in with the Cubbies.

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 9:28 am
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Ben Burns
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Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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The Angels just keep on rolling and there's little reason to think they can't do it again tonight. Lackey is 3-0 and has a 1.14 ERA and 0.718 WHIP his last three starts. Contreras, on the other hand, is 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.8 WHIP his last three. Consider LA

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 10:34 am
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Stephen Nover

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers are a mediocre club. But once every five games they become highly dangerous. That's when Yovani Gallardo takes the mound.

Gallardo is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He has 10 victories, a 3.13 ERA and is fourth in the National League in strikeouts. Gallardo has been particularly impressive recently since correcting a mechanical flaw with a 1.88 ERA in his last two starts.

The Brewers last won a series back on June 29-July 1. They are highly motivated and their confidence is up after hanging on to edge the Dodgers last night behind Manny Parra. This is not a West Coast game they will be mailing in with Gallardo on the hill.
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The Dodgers, on the other hand, are coasting. They have the best record in baseball. The Dodgers have lost seven of their last 11 games. It's tough to maintain focus all the time with a 6 1/2-game lead in the NL West. This is just the Dodgers' second game back from a seven-game road trip that concluded in Atlanta on Sunday night.

Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda is 4-5 with a 4.44 ERA. He's an end of the rotation type starter, definitely not in Gallardo's elite class.

Manny Ramirez is batting .186 in his last 43 at bats. Maybe he isn't such a superman when he's not trying to get pregnant.
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This is a one-unit play for me.

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 10:37 am
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Scott Ferrall has been on fire. Here is the last 3 day record for Baseball ML games
Sat 3-0
Sun 2-1
Mon 3-0
I have been playing his ML baseball picks only not the O/U so I dont know his O/U record

here are his free picks for Tuesday which include O/U
FLA
TOR
DET
DET U
TB U
NYY U

Good Luck to all Jonesin for Football

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 10:39 am
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Chris Jordan

Milwaukee at LOS ANGELES -125

Listing both pitchers tonight, as I believe Hiroki Kuroda produces a quality effort for a Dodgers team that will be looking to avenge last night’s loss to the Brewers.

I realize it's taken probably half the season, but the Dodgers’ right-hander is seemingly just getting back on track after following his Opening Day win by spending two months on the disabled list. The mechanical flaw that harbored him early on has been ironed out and after strengthening his core, he's now using his lower body much more. By doing so, he’s increased the quality of all his pitches, particularly a sharp-diving splitter that is his late-count, out pitch. He may have just three wins, but he’s improved steadily and should be on for this one tonight.

Look for the Dodgers to rattle Yovani Gallardo, a flyball pitcher who’s made mistakes over the zone at times, and was roughed up by this lineup less than a month ago. Over five innings on July 12, the right-hander was battered for five earned runs and took the loss. He’s 2-3 in his last six starts and I simply like the Dodgers lineup to get to him tonight, while supporting Kuroda.

1♦ DODGERS

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 11:01 am
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John Ryan
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds as the host the Cubs set to start at 7:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 124-63 making 55.8 units since 2003 with an average play of -108.3 since 2003. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after a win by 2 runs or less facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less. Cubs not in a good spot based on the AiS grading and projections and numerous angles. Here a few of them. Cubs are 124-63 making 55.8 units since 2003 with an average play of -108.3 since 2003. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after a win by 2 runs or less facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less; 1-8 (-8.5 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 this season; 2-18 (-15.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season; 2-15 (-12.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season; 9-15 (-9.6 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Reds bullpen has been strong all season posting a 3.59 ERA and also a 3.63 ERA in home games spanning 166 innings pitched. Cubs batting a paltry 239 with a 305 OBP, scoring 4.0 RPG, just 136 extra base hits, a horrid 425 K’s in 52 road games spanning 1836 AB. Just not good and Reds starter Ceuto will be able to dominate the Cubs. Since the beginning of the 2009 season Ceuto has given up 9 or more ER in BB starts just 4 times and in each situation he has pitched very well in the next start. For example, in starts 6/20 and 6/25 he allowed 5 ER in each. He followed those 2 starts up with ZERO ER allowed 6 inning gem. Look for a similar start tonight and for the Reds bullpen to close the game out with a win. Take the Reds.

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 11:03 am
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Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins -163
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The Fish are worth the juice this evening behind ace Josh Johnson. Johnson is 10-2 with a 2.87 ERA on the season. The Marlins are 21-5 in his last 26 starts vs. the National League East and 21-6 in his last 27 starts overall. But here's the clincher: The Fish are a perfect 7-0 in Johnson's 7 starts career starts vs. the Nationals. On top of that, Florida is a perfect 9-0 against Washington this season. Take the Marlins.

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 11:04 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS
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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays have actually lost each of Roy Halladay's last two starts (and six of seven!), which coupled with playing the Yankees tonight, gives us some value here. Halladay has gone 8-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his previous 10 home starts vs. New York and is 16-5 overall in 34 career starts. Consider that Halladay has a home team start record of 93-43 since 1997. The Yankees are also 2-7 when revenging a one run loss.
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Play on: Toronto

 
Posted : August 4, 2009 11:06 am
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