Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday August, 7

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres

The Padres send the steady serves of Ross Ohlendorf to the mound against Matt Garza and the Cubs in Game Two of this three game series in San Diego with Ohlendorf sporting a 9-1 career team start mark against Chicago. With Ohlendorf's home ERA (2.13) more than seven runs a game better than his road ERA (9.56) this season, and Garza's road ERA (5.37) more than three runs a game worse than his home ERA (2.12) this campaign, look for Ohlendorf to continue his mastery over the Cubbies here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

Bryan Power

Washington vs. Houston
Pick: Washington

Guess what? Houston lost AGAIN yesterday. Sure, it took extra innings for the visiting Nationals to put them away, but the bottom line is that Houston has now dropped a horrendous 31 of its last 35 games. During this little run I've had on FREE plays, I have almost exclusively played against the Astros. Why not again tonight?

With last night's loss, Houston fell to 0-10 this season in extra-inning games, the only team in MLB without a win beyond the 9th inning. They also committed three errors. But that doesn't even begin to tell half the story. The team has now dropped 10 of 12 here at Minute Maid Park, committing 11 errors while batting a lousy .167 with runners in scoring position.

Obviously when you're this bad, the pitching is never good and such is the case with the Astros. The team is 2-13 in starts made by tonight's hurler Jordan Lyles (5.95 ERA) including 0-3 his L3 (8.64). Going back to last year, the team is 5-24 in Lyles' 29 starts. Washington has now won 13 of 18 on the road, and four of five overall, and will go with Ross Detwiler, who threw seven shutout innings in a win over Philadelphia last time out. This series almost isn't even fair.

Rob Vinciletti

Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Over 7½

This game fits a sweet totals system that plays to the over for home favorites like the Rays that are off a home loss and scored 2 or less runs with 10 or less fly balls and 8 or more ground balls hit, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog win while scoring 5 or more runs. These games average 12.2 runs. In the series 5 of the 6 games between these two have posted overs. Toronto is averaging 5 runs in dome games and has flown over in 7 of 10 off a day off. Tampa has Shields making the start tonight and 7 of his 11 home starts have gone over the total. His last 3 home stats vs the Jays all have soared over the total. J. Happ goes for Toronto and he has a dismal 5.69 road era this season. Look for the Jays and Rays to go over the total.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Michael Fiers has been on fire for the Brewers, but Johnny Cueto is a win machine for the Reds, and the road team has a huge late inning advantage if this is close. I'll back the Cincy side tonight.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Pick: Miami Marlins

The Mets are in free fall, losing 17 of 24 games for a losing record overall and .500 at home. Into town come the Marlins who are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. Lefty Jonathon Niese has a 4.50 ERA his last three starts and all time against the Marlins he's 1-4 with a 44.7 ERA. Miami has Wade LeBlanc on the mound and he has a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. Play the Marlins!

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT -102 over N.Y. Yankees

The Yankees continue to be overpriced. They’ve lost 11 of their past 17 games and yet they’re favored again against a Tigers club that is rolling along with nine straight wins at home.

Phil Hughes has an 8.31 ERA and 1.88 WHIP against RH batters, numbers that have been offset by his 2.52 ERA and 0.95 WHIP vs. LH bats. The problem for Hughes is that Detroit can load up either side of the plate and you can be absolutely sure that manager Jim Leyland will fill out his line-up card accordingly. Hughes is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 32%/49%. He has traditionally struggled in August and September and with the Tigers bats scorching, especially Prince Fielder (10 for his last 17) and Miguel Cabrera (8 for his last 22), chances are strong that he’ll run into trouble here.

Rick Porcello is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three regular-season outings against the Yankees at Comerica Park. Porcello has not allowed a home-run in his past nine starts and unlike Hughes, he continues to thrive after the all-star break. Over the past three years, Porcello is 15-7 after the break with a 3.38 ERA. The Tigers have won six of his last seven starts and the only reason he and the Tigers are underdogs here is that the opposition is wearing pinstripes.

Minnesota +107 over CLEVELAND

The misery continues for the Indians. In the first inning last night they had bases loaded, none out and promptly hit into a double play. Yesterday, it was 10-1 in the 2nd inning and the 10 didn’t belong to the Tribe. Cleveland has now lost 10 straight, 15 of 17 and with a rookie pitcher being thrown into the fire, we’re not going to miss this opportunity to take-back a price against them.

Corey Kluber was called up and started August 2 against K.C. after Derek Lowe was designated for assignment and Josh Tomlin was sent to the bullpen. Kluber struggled in a brief four-inning stint in 2011, but has shown improvement in the minors this season to earn this opportunity. He has struck out 128 and against 49 BB in 125.1 IP at AAA-Columbus. However, this isn’t the best timing for a neophyte pitcher to get his feet wet again. He was whacked against the Royals to the tune of nine hits and six runs in 4.1 frames. He’s been watching every starter and reliever get pummelled since returning to the bigs. The Indians are in peril and it’s unlikely a rookie is going to perform well under these conditions.

The Twins have now won four of five. Sam Deduno is 3-0 in five starts with a 2.48 ERA. The Twins have won four of his five starts including this past weekend when Deduno two-hit the Red Sox in Boston over six frames. The kid has wicked stuff. He had a BAA against of .185 in the minors before his call-up and in five starts at this level, his BAA is .213. He’s also an extreme groundballer with a 54% rate, which is right in line with his minor-league groundball rate. He faced the Indians on July 28th and two-hit them in seven innings. Minnesota seems to get pumped up when Deduno pitches, as the Twins have given him 30 runs of support over his last four starts. Another seven or eight here would not surprise against this reeling host.

Scott Spreitzer

Reds / Brewers Under 7.5

Johnny Cueto has been a "machine" for most of the 2012 season. The righthander has held 18 of his 22 opponents to 3 earned runs or less. He owns tremendous numbers overall, great road numbers, and he held Milwaukee to 1 earned run and 15 base runners in two starts this season, spanning 14 innings. Cueto struckout 14 batters and allowed no home runs in the two outings. At the same time, I don't expect Cueto to get much help at the plate with his team averaging just 3.9 rpg on the road against righties. Mike Fiers is the righty they'll face tonight and he has posted a spectacular 1.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .228 BAA in 12 appearances (11 starts) this season. Fiers has allowed just 3 home runs in 72 innings for a sizzling 0.38 HR's per 9 IP mark. Fiers may have a young arm, but it needs to be noted that he didn't make his first start of this season until June 9...meaning the rigors of a long season on a young arm does not come into play when talking about Fiers. The Brewers are on a 5-1 Under run against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Reds are 14-4 to the Under against NL starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. They're 8-2 to the Under in Cueto's last 10 starts and 6-1 Under when he toes the rubber on four days rest. More of the same. I'm playing the Under between the Reds & Brewers.

Dave Price

Chicago White Sox -1.5 +100

The White Sox get the nod on the run line as our free play with former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy on the bump. He has been dominant in his last 2 starts and has gotten the job done at home all season. He's 5-2 with an ERA of 3.13 in 10 home starts. The Sox have won 7 of those (6 by 2 runs or more). Kansas City's Bruce Chen, meanwhile, is 3-6 with an ERA of 6.68 in 13 road starts. The Royals have lost 10 of those (6 by 2 runs or more). Take Chicago on the run line.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +115

Here come the Cards. They have won 4 in a row and 13 of 17. 12 of those 13 wins have come by 2 runs or more.

San Francisco's Barry Zito is struggling. The Giants have lost each of his last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 7.56. They have lost his last 2 starts by 10 and 8 runs, respectively. Zito's poor career starts versus the Cardinals can't be ignored either. He's 1-6 (1-7 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.23 in 8 career starts against them. Each of those 7 defeats came by at least 2 runs.

The Cards are in better hands with Lance Lynn, who is 13-4 with an ERA of 3.40. They have won 4 of his last 5 starts with those 4 wins coming by an average of 3.75 runs. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts. Bet St. Louis on the run line.

Jeff Alexander

Washington Nationals -175

Fading the Astros here. They are 11-41 in their last 52 overall, 1-8 in their last 9 home games and 4-25 in Lyles' last 29 starts. The Nationals are 20-8 in their last 28 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in Detwiler's last 6 starts. They have also won 5 of their last 6 versus Houston. Bet Washington.

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles -125

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small home favorite tonight over the Seattle Mariners. Baltimore (58-51) is right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race, sitting just 1/2-game behind the Tigers and Angels. Seattle (51-60) has little to play for the rest of the way.

The Orioles have been pitching lights out during their 3-game winning streak, giving up just one run total. I realize Zach Britton has struggled in four starts this year, but he'll be inspired to match the efforts of his fellow starters the past three days.

In his lone career start against Seattle, Britton pitched nine innings of shutout ball while allowing just three base runners. Seattle starter Blake Beavan is 4-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine road starts this season.

The Mariners are 8-29 in road games against AL East opponents over the last 2 seasons. Britton is 10-1 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive team wins over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 33-71 in their last 104 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore is 5-0 in Britton's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

Steve Janus

Minnesota +107

The Indians have completely fallen apart in the 2nd half of the season. With Monday's 14-3 loss to the Twins, Cleveland has now lost 10 straight overall. While the Indians are struggling, Minnesota comes in playing some of their best baseball of the season, as they have won 8 of their last 11 overall.

Aside from how well each team has been playing lately, I believe the Twins have the clear edge on the mound. Minnesota will send out San Deduno against the Indians Corey Kluber.

Deduno has really been impressive since getting called up in the 2nd half. He is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in five starts. One of those starts happened to come against Cleveland, where he allowed just one run on two hits over 7 innings of work. To give you and idea of just how good Deduno has been of late, he has a 0.93 ERA over his last three starts and during that stretch he has allowed a total of 10 hits!

Kluber made his debut last Thursday against the Royals. Needless to say it wasn't very good. He allowed six runs on nine hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. I don't see him breaking the Indians streak of poor starting pitching. During the Indians 10-game losing streak they are allowing 8.8 runs/game!

Wunderdog

Minnesota at Cleveland
Pick: Minnesota +100

The Minnesota Twins put yesterday's game away early with an explosive 10 run second inning uprising on their way to a 14-3 victory over the struggling Tribe. Cleveland was an early surprise in the AL Central, but has shown their true colors since. The current swoon has left them with 10 straight in the loss column. What is uglier than the 10 straight losses is the fact that they have allowed 88 runs in the process, or 8.8 per contest. The Twins won't be playing in the postseason, but it hasn't stopped them from playing well, as they are 18-16 since June 30, and have won four of their last five. The Indians are an ugly 2-15 in their last 17 with a total posted at 9 to 10.5, while the Twins are now 6-0 in their last six vs. a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Play on Minnesota.

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS -1½ +118 over San Francisco

After losing seven of eight games with the offense sputtering, the Giants went into Colorado and woke up by scoring 35 runs in a three-game sweep of the Rockies. They subsequently went into St. Louis last night and reverted right back to their struggles in an 8-2 loss against Jake Westbrook and the Cardinals.

The Cardinals lead the majors with a .288 home batting average. Against lefties at Busch, St. Louis has won 11 of 16 games and will face one here in Barry Zito. The veteran has tallied some wins and a respectable ERA this season but we weren’t buying into it earlier in the year and we’re certainly not buying into it now because his skills remain overwhelmingly poor. He has barely more strikeouts than walks and a line-drive rate constantly around the 25% mark. The third straight year of xERA over 5 is more proof. Zito has been whacked in his last two starts at home against the Dodgers and Mets in which San Fran was outscored 19-1. While it's a great story on one level—man with a ridiculous contract finally making good, on a pure skills level, it's not good at all.

Lance Lynn continues his impressive season with strong skills in every month through July. At home, Lynn is 6-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He has 127 K’s in 127 innings and a groundball bias profile. Lynn does not need to be extra sharp here (although he likely will be), as he should get plenty of run support with Zito opposing him. This is a pitching mismatch and a lopsided score in favor of the host is the likely scenario.