Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Seattle/ Baltimore Under 9.5: 4 games played between these teams this year and none of them have seen double digits scored. In fact, dating back to last year none of the last 9 in this series has seen a double digit run total put up. This line does mystify me a bit and I do expect it to drop to 9 by game time. The biggest reason it mystifies me is the fact that both offenses have been pathetic of late, while the O's have been nearly unhittable in their last 4 games as they come in allowing just 3 total runs over that stretch. I know that Zach Britton has struggled in his 4 starts this year with an 8.34 ERA, but 3 of those games were at Minnesota, home vs Oakland and at New York and all 3 offenses were hot at the time. Seattle is not in that category as the loss of Ichiro may be starting to take it's toll on this young squad. The Mariners come in averaging just 2.4 rpg in their last 5 games and last year in this same park they had troubles with Britton as he pitched a complete game vs them allowing 3 hits and 0 ER's in the 2-1 Baltimore win that went to extras tied at 0. Baltimore also comes into this game having problems at they plate as they have averaged just 2.2 rpg in their last 5 games and they will face a hot pitcher in Blake Beavan. Blake comes in with a solid 2.01 ERA in his last 3 starts and not one of those 3 starts saw more than 8 runs scored, plus in this game he has the advantage, cause the O's haven't seen him yet. The Under is 7-0-1 in Seattle's last 8 road games and 6-1-1 in Baltimore's last 8 as a favorite, plus the Under is 6-2-1 the last 9 in the series. I expect no more than 7 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Milwaukee/ Cincinnati Under 7.5: This is a great pitching matchup that should produce a very low run total in this game. Johnny Cueto has been special this year and his games have been very low scoring as well. Overall Johnny has a 2.52 ERA with just 6.45 rpg being scored in his starts, while on the road he has a 2.73 ERA, with just 6.08 rpg being scored. Johnny is off 2 tough starts in which he allowed 4 ER's in each, but those starts were at Colorado and at home vs a hot San Diego offense tyhat hits much better on the road than at home. Prior to that Johnny hadn't allowed more than 3 ER's in his last 8 starts, in fact for the year he has allowed more than 3 ER's just 4 times in his 22 starts. Johnny has an 0.64 ERA in 2 starts vs the Brewers this year and he hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in 9 of his last 10 starts vs them. Michael Fiers has indeed been special as well since being called up this year. In his first 3 starts of the year he allowed 9 total ER's, but in his last 8 starts he has allowed a total of just 6 ER's and that translates to a 1.02 ERA over that stretch. At night on the year he has been very dominant, posting an 0.34 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP in 4 starts, with just 6.5 rpg being scored in those starts. Both offenses are solid, but tonight pitching will rule in what should be a classic pitcher's duel.
New York -105 over DETROIT: Google News Play Detroit is hot and playing very well at home, but they haven't won 10 in a row at home since 2006 and I don't see it happening here either. NY is 4-1 in Hughes last 5 starts vs the Cats and he has a 2.25 ERA in those starts. Phil has been on a roll this season as well, as he is 4-2 with a 2.39 ERA in his last 7 starts. For Rick Porcello he has a 5.59 ERA in his last 5 starts, despite going 2-1 over that stretch. Rick has had his struggles with New York, going 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA in 6 career starts vs them. Thanks have not been playing well on the road of late, but with a hot pitcher on the mound for them and a starter on the other side that has had problems with this team, plus the fact the the Cats are due for a home loss, should all add up to a Yankees win here.
Tampa Bay/ Toronto Under 7: James Shields has really struggled in much of his last 8 starts, but what better way for him to get back on track tonight vs a Toronto team that he has dominated of late. Since the beginning of last year Shields has made 4 starts vs the Jays and he has allowed 4 total ER's in the 4 starts. Shields will be taking on a struggling Toronto offense that has averaged just 2.6 rpg in their last 8 games. The Jays do average 4.6 rpg on the road, but in the first 7 games of this trip they have averaged just 2.9 rpg. The Rays have also struggled to score of late as they come in being shutout in BB games, while in their last 10 games overall they have averaged just 2.5 rpg. At home the Rays have hit just .199 and scored 3.6 rp/9 off of lefties and could have problems getting their offense going tonight. J.A. Happ hasn't had a good year, but he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 4 of his last 5 starts and in 2 starts vs the AL this year he has a 2.08 ERA. He did struggle in his lone start vs the Rays last year, allowing 5 ER's in 5 innings, but this is a different Rays team that is having all sorts of problems plating runs. I expect a pitcher's duel in Tampa tonight.
POWER ANGLE PLAY (12-2 L14)
LOS ANGELES -169 over Colorado: I was really hoping this line would come down a bit. Didn't want anyone to think i was trying to pad this run with big favorites. In my last 11 week run on my top plays I have played favorites of 150 or higher just 13 times and won 12 of them and this is only the second time I have used a big favorite in my current PA run. So I pick my spots with big fave Top Plays. Anyway, the Dodgers are off a bad night last night as they were shut out 2-0 vs this same Rockies team and they will be looking for some pay back tonight. First of all Im not sure how they are playing this game, A team should be thrown out the league for getting shutout by the Rockies. LOL The Colorado staff is one of the worst in the league and Alex White is one of their worst. Alex is 2-6 with a 6.16 ERA on the year, but the odd thing about Alex is that he has a better ERA at home (4.76) then on the road (8.22) and that is strange for a Rockies pitcher. Case in point this season as he faced the Dodgers twice and allowed 2 ER on 2 hits in 6.2 innings at Coors, but in Chavez Ravine he allowed 6 ER's on 5 hits in 4.1 innings of work. Aaron Harang has pitched well at home with a 3.79 ERA, but poor run support has saddled him with a 2-3 record at home. Overall Aaron has pitched very well, allowing 3 ER's or less in 8 of his last 10 starts and should keep tyhe damage sort of Minimal vs a Colorado team that doesn't score well away from Coors (3.57 rpg). The Dodgers offense needs some confidence and I expect them to get it here vs a bad Rockies pitchers. Look for the Dodgers to take a bit of a wild one here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008 the Dodgers are 31-5 as a home fav vs a NL opponent when they are off a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits, used more than 2 pitchers and it is not the last game of the series
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (24-6 RUN) (33-14 +14.68 UNITS)
Since 2004 Arizona is 3-19 on the road when the line is +130 to -130 and they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they were shutout over the last 6 innings. Play On Pittsburgh -122 over Arizona
Since April 2011 the Over is 11-0 when John Niese is on the mound and the Mets scored less than 3 runs in his last start. Play Mets/ Marlins Over 8
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is now at 87-54-2 after scoring with the Minnesota Twins last night. Tonight I look to inch closer to the 90-win mark with the Detroit Tigers against the New York Yankees. Should be a good game after the Motown boys took care of business in the series-opener yesterday.
It wasn't that long ago everyone thought the Tigers were about to disappear, along with the Cleveland Indians. But if you haven't noticed, Detroit is rolling at Comerica Park, and should be able to extend its home winning streak to 10 games. I don't know if the Yankees are ready to respond after Detroit-ace Justin Verlander matched a career high with 14 strikeouts last night.
Tigers starter Rick Porcello is no slouch, and could very easily pick up where Verlander left off. Porcello is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three regular-season outings against the Yankees at Comerica Park.
I'm well aware of Phil Hughes' stellar play of late, going 4-2 with a 2.39 ERA in his last seven starts overall, but he's going up against an aggressive lineup that is playing well right now.
Take the Tigers tonight.
2♦ DETROIT
Matt Rivers
6-1 comp play run after Seattle and Baltimore played Under last night.
Tonight another total, as I like the Over in Texas and Boston.
This is Ryan Dempster's second American League start, and his first sure was an ugly one, as he allowed 9 hits (2 of them homers) and 8 runs in under 5 innings of work, but escaped with a no-decision as the Texas offense came up big in a win over the Angels.
Dempster could see a few more runs added to his account tonight, as the Red Sox did come up with 9 runs in last night's series opening win.
Jon Lester will counter, and Lester is having a tough time of it this year at 5-9 with a 5.36 ERA for the year. It has been worse both recently and at home for the Boston southpaw, as Lester stands at 0-2 with an ERA of 9.00 for his last 3 starts, and at Fenway this year he is just 2-7 with a 6.96 ERA.
With a pair of pitchers that I consider to be very suspect at avoiding a big inning tonight, look for the Fenway scoreboard operators to have their hands full hanging the crooked digits on the scoreboard in the Green Monster.
Texas and Boston add the runs up. Play this one Over the total.
4♦ TEXAS-BOSTON UNDER
Jeff Benton
Tuesday's freebie is the Mariners and Orioles to once again stay Under the posted total.
Last night the offense on both clubs remained relatively silent, as Baltimore took a 3-1 decision in an easy Under.
Seattle has scored only seven runs in their last four games, and are 3-0-1 Under the total in those four.
Baltimore has scored only eight runs in their last four games, and all four have played Under. The O's have also allowed just four runs in those four games, so you can see Buck Showalter's team has been involved in some low-scoring defensive contests of late.
The M's are on a 7-0-1 road Under clip their last eight away from Safeco, and the series Under run is now 6-2-1 the last nine times these teams have faced one another.
With Blake Beavan looking for his fifth straight winning decision and Zach Britton looking to find some sort of positive start to build on, I will look for another low-scoring game between the teams.
Seattle and Baltimore stay Low one more time.
2♦ SEATTLE-BALTIMORE UNDER
Dom Chambers
For today’s free play, let’s go with the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians.
For the Twins, Sam Deduno starts, and he has been outstanding. In his five games started, he is 3-0 with a 2.48. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA and a WHIP of 1.138. He has given up two runs in 19 1/3 innings.
He will keep the struggling Indians off the scoreboard.
Corey Kluber starts for the Indians. He has had one start this season, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up six runs. That’s good for an ERA of 12.47.
On July 28, Deduno beat the Indians, giving up only one run in seven innings.
To say the Indians are struggling would be an understatement. They have lost 10 straight. The Twins have won four of their last five games.
Go with the hotter team with the better pitcher.
Take the Twins.
3♦ TWINS
Craig Davis
Tuesday's free play is the Yankees over the Tigers.
The bottom line last night is that they got eaten up by one of the best pitchers in the game. No shame in that.
Not the same story tonight.
This number confuses me a little because the Tigers are only four games behind the Yanks in overall record and they're playing at home where they have won nine straight. So why aren't the Tigers big favorites? Or at least moderate favorites?
Miguel Cabrera hit another home run last night and is 8 for his last 22 with three homers and seven RBIs. Prince Fielder is 10 for 17 with two doubles, three homers and eight RBIs in August (where they are 5-0, by the way)... and everything else is working for the Tigers right now... so again, this money line seems strange to me.
I think the equalizer is Phil Hughes. Although he's clearly not one of my favorite pitchers, you can't argue his recent success. Hughes is 4-2 with a 2.39 ERA in his last seven starts overall and won his second straight start Wednesday, allowing just one run despite nine hits in six innings. The Yankees won that game 12-3.
Rick Porcello counters for the Tigers, and although he has pitched very well in two of the last three regular season outings vs. the Yankees, he was shelled in the playoffs last year.
It should be a fun game to watch, but in the end I think the money line speaks volumes about what Vegas is thinking. I'm taking the Yankees as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Chris Jordan
My free pick run is now at 31-16 after I scored with the Atlanta Braves behind Ben Sheets last night. Tonight my money is on the San Diego Padres over the Chicago Cubs, as I'm taking the Friars for a second-straight night - this time as a freebie.
The two fourth-place teams hit the field once again, an I continue to believe this is the right spot for the Padres. The travel-weary Cubs have lost six straight and will play their fifth straight road game in as many days, after being swept in Los Angeles over the weekend
San Diego has just taken two of three from the New York Mets, and tonight hands the ball to Ross Ohlendorf, who I know is coming in after struggling in his last outing, by yielding six runs in just 1-2/3 innings against the Reds. But before that, he had made three straight quality starts.
Then again, I don't care much about the Padres' recent woes. Fact is, at home, they're doing just fine. They've won eight off 10 at Petco Park and should have no trouble getting to Chicago's rookie Brooks Raley, who is making his MLB debut.
Not much else to ponder on this one guys - it's a light night, and this is a freebie. Take the Padres.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Scott Delaney
My free winner tonight takes us to Busch Stadium, where I like the home team St. Louis Cardinals to dismantle the San Francisco Giants, in the same manner they did last night. Jon Jay went 4 for 4 and drove in two runs, Matt Carpenter added a two-run, bases-loaded single and Carlos Beltran blasted his 26th home run for the Cardinals, who have won four in a row overall and seven straight at home.
The defending World Series champion Cardinals have won 12 of 13 at Busch Stadium thanks to a potent offense that has steadily ranked among the league best and is averaging 6.0 runs per game and is batting .316 during this stretch.
I don't know how much more to lean on with that offense, so once it gets going, we're going to see starter Lance Lynn shut down the Giants, who had their three-game win streak last night. Lynn is 13-4 with a 3.40 ERA this season and is on another strong run at home, winning four of his past five starts at Busch, sparked by a 2.67 ERA with 33 strikeouts over 30-1/3 innings.
Lynn, who has thrown 12 scoreless innings to win his last two outings at Busch, is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last five starts.
Lay the run line here as the Cardinals roll.
3♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5