Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday July 14,2009

SPORTS ADVISORS

American League vs. National League
(at St. Louis)

The American League looks to continue its dominance of the All-Star Game when it battles the National League in the 80th mid-summer classic at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum (10-2, 2.33 ERA) is scheduled to start for the N.L. opposite Toronto’s Roy Halladay (10-3, 2.85).

The A.L. has won six consecutive All-Star games and is on an 11-0-1 run in the annual midsummer exhibition, with seven of the 11 victories coming by more than one run. However, the past three contests have been one-run affairs, including last year’s at Yankee Stadium, where the American League got a sacrifice fly from Michael Young in the 15th inning to pull out a 4-3 victory. The game matched the 1967 contest for the longest in terms of total innings and the 4-hour, 50-minute marathon set an All-Star Game record.

The N.L. still leads the all-time series 41-36-2, but the senior circuit has been on the losing end in 19 of the last 26 contests, plus one tie in 2002. In fact, going back to 1988, the A.L. is on a 17-3-1 run in this contest. Prior to this current drought, the N.L. had won 19 of 20 meetings from 1963-82, including a record 11 straight from 1972-82.

In addition to the All-Star Game, the A.L. has dominated interleague play the last four years, holding advantages of 154-98 in 2006, 137-115 in both 2007 and 2008, and 137-114 this season. The A.L. had a cumulative 3.91 ERA, .263 average and 315 home runs in interleague action in 2009, compared with the N.L.’s 4.46 ERA, .257 average and 249 home runs

St. Louis has hosted the All-Star Game four times previously, the most recent in 1966 at old Busch Stadium. The National League won that game 4-0 and also took a 2-1 decision in 1940, while the A.L. scored a 5-2 victory in 1948 and a 6-5 win in 1957.

Lincecum was named to his first All-Star game last year, but he didn’t pitch because he was suffering from dehydration. He closed out the first half of the season with four straight victories and is 6-1 with a 1.45 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing just nine earned runs and striking out 58 in 56 innings during this stretch. Going back to May 21, the right-hander has recorded 10 straight quality starts, giving up two earned runs or fewer in eight of those games.

Lincecum was 2-1 with a 1.39 ERA in three starts against the American League this year, tossing complete games in both victories. He also had a complete-game 10-0 victory in St. Louis on June 29, scattering two hits and no walks while striking out eight, improving to 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in three career starts at Busch Stadium.

Halladay is making his sixth All-Star appearance but his first start. He pitched in three of those six mid-summer classics, allowing four runs and seven hits in four total innings. The veteran right-hander got the starting nod tonight despite struggling a bit following a two-week stint on the disabled list, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts.

Halladay got no-decisions in his two interleague starts this year, giving up a combined one run and 10 hits in 10 innings (0.90 ERA) against the Braves and Marlins. He’s never pitched at Busch Stadium.

The last three All-Star games have stayed under the total, snapping a four-game “over” streak in the midsummer classic. Also, the under is 10-5 in the last 15 All-Star contests played in National League parks.

ATS ADVANTAGE: AMERICAN LEAGUE and UNDER

DUNKEL

WNBA

Los Angeles at Connecticut
The Sparks look to rebound from their 75-63 loss in Washington and build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games following a SU loss. Los Angeles is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has Connecticut favored by just 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+4).

Game 651-652: Los Angeles at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 111.531; Connecticut 112.682
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 1; 141 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4; 140
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+4); Over

Chris Jordan

All-Star Winner ... NATIONAL LEAGUE ALL STARS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
It’s hard to side against the American League, when it literally closed the first half with some of the hottest teams in the league, and some of the most explosive lineups in the bigs.

Think about it, out of the American League East alone you’re talking about the Yankees, Red Sox and Devil Rays – all three of which have turned this division into the exciting race we'd hoped for. Add in the annual intensity of the Central Division and the explosive lineups of the Angels and Rangers out of the West, and it's not hard to see why the junior circuit has dominated the midsummer classic in the past decade.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
But this year, something is eerily different. It's a feeling, but with reasoning, that tells me the National League will finally win this thing.

With the roster changes taking shape, I still can't help but buy into the hype that Albert Pujols is in the right spot to stake claim to Major League Baseball in the most exciting game of the season, on his own stage.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Think about it ... Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, and finally, Manny Ramirez - they all broke our MLB-loving hearts and put a damper on how we look at them. So who's left?

Pujols.

He's arguably the best player in baseball, he's certainly the most prolific slugger and he's yet to be tied to any talk of P.E.D.'s. So on a night when all the spotlight will be on St. Louis, and when the fans and baseball can celebrate the donning of a new era with some fresh young faces, and several noteworthy veterans.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I think guys like Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino of the Phillies will have a good game, Prince Fielder might get ahold of one, I believe Ryan Zimmerman will look good and I expect some timely hits at some point in the game by guys like Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez and Justin Upton. And those are all the reserves.

Joining Pujols on the starting lineup there's fellow Cardinal Yadier Molina, Philadelphia's Chase Utley annd Raul Ibanez, Florida's Hanley Ramirez, New York's David Wright and Milwaukee slugger Ryan Braun.

If I were to rattle off the American League All-Stars, it would take up space too much space and I am conceding that it would look much more impressive with names like Mauer, Teixeira, Jeter, Longoria, Bay, Hamilton, Morneau, Youkilis and Crawford jumping off the page.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
But again, something about this year, this stadium, the atmosphere in MLB ... and Albert!

Take the Senior Circuit.

Jeff Benton

For Tuesday, we’ll look for the All-Star game in St. Louis to stay UNDER the total.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
First of all, if you’re looking for concrete proof that steroid testing has leveled the playing field in baseball, just look at the final scores of the last three All-Star games: 3-2, 5-4 and 4-3, with all three contests staying under the total. The four previous All-Star games – which were played right at the height of the steroid era had combined run totals of 14, 13, 13 and 12 runs. Not surprisingly, all four went OVER the total.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tonight’s contest is being played at Busch Stadium, which has proven to be more of a pitcher’s park than a hitter’s park since it opened two years ago. In fact, his season, there have been an average of just over 9 runs per game scored at Busch (that ranks 21st out of 30 stadiums), and the “under” is 25-17-2 in games played in St. Louis. One reason for this? Summers in St. Louis are scorching hot and humid, and the thick air helps keep the ball in the ballpark (unless your last name is Pujols, of course).

Finally, the under is 10-5 in the last 15 All-Star battles played in National League parks. I look for that trend to go to 11-5 tonight. Play this one under the 9½-run total.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2♦ ALL-STAR GAME UNDER

Tony Weston

Today's Selection
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Came through yesterday as the Angels took care of business against the Yankees.

We’re nailing another Comp Play winner as we’re taking the Under in the All-Star game Tuesday night.

The number set for the game is sitting at about 9 1/2 runs. Coming into this game the games have been relatively low-scoring over the last few years. In 2006 the teams combined for only 5 runs, then only 9 in 2007 and only 7 last year.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Consider too, that so far this season the Under has gone 25-17-2 at Busch Stadium in Cardinals home games.

Also, AL scheduled starter Roy Halladay comes into this game with a 2.85 ERA and will be matched by Tim Lincecum and his 2.33 ERA.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Scoring will be at a premium in the All-Star game as these teams come in Under the Total. Take the Under in the All-Star game Tuesday.

3♦ AL-NL UNDER

Michael Cannon

American League vs. National League

Take the under in tonight’s All Star game.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
It’s tough to see either team getting much offense going tonight. The American League boasts the likes of Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and Justin Verlander.

That is one tough group of arms, but the NL is pretty stacked too with Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson and Francisco Rodriguez.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The added factor in this game going under is the competitive nature of the winning league getting home field advantage in the World Series. You’re going to see strategy from both sides and nobody is going to give anything away with so much at stake.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Take the under as this one stays low.

3♦ UNDER

Wunderdog
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles at Connecticut
Pick: OVER 140.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles games are averaging 144 points per game on the season and 177 over their last five. Connecticut games have averaged 145 per game on the season and over 150 per game in their last five. This total is just too low. In four of the last six played in Connecticut, the winner has averaged 85 points per game. The Sparks have played their last six games vs. a team with a losing record to the OVER and Connecticut has gone four straight to the OVER following a straight up loss. Over the past three seasons, when coming off a close loss by 3 points or less, the Sun are 8-1 OVER in their next game. I like the OVER in this one.

IndianCowboy
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I liked a prop that I came across. 'Over 15.5' in Total Players to throw a pitch in the ballgame. Long story short, the AL wants the streak to keep rolling while the NL is desperately trying to stop the bleeding over the last 12 years as they are 0-11-1 against the AL. It is getting embarrassing. Both managers have the best in the game at their disposal, so why not use anybody and everybody within their arsenal. From selecting specific pitchers for specific hitters late in the game, I wouldn't be surprised if both teams used essentially everyone they had to help them win tonight's contest. Just as an example of how specific managers can use pitchers in their matchup, here is a link to the 2008 All-Star Box score. If you notice there, there were a total of 23 pitchers were used. Certainly, that many will likely not be used today, but it is possible for at least 16 to be used given the previous track record of Summer Classic.

Nite Owl Sports

Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun
Pick: 2 units: Under 141
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
It’s pretty hard to resist the under here, with the following compelling numbers:

1. LA is 1-6 to the under TY on the road, while Conn is 2-4 to the under at home.

2. LA is 0-8 to the under in their last 8 vs WNBA East, incl 0-5 under TY and 1-6 under in their last 7 visiting WNBA East teams.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
There are a couple of reasons for LA’s low scoring TY on the road. One is that Sparks take a relatively low # of shots, averaging just 64 SPG, with an average of 14 of them being treys. And with a road FG% of 39% and just 25% treys, that translates into barely over 50 ppg from the floor. But with LA not having much of an inside “presence,” they have averaged just 8 FTs taken per game in their last three roadies, and with an average FT conversion rate of 72% for LA away, that’s just 6 more points. So it’s no wonder LA’s road games have been going under lately.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
And then there’s the much anticipated but disappointing (so far ) return of LY’s rookie of the year, candace parker, who missed several games to start this season, recovering from her off season pregnancy and childbirth. While NBA players have become infamous for causing numerous pregnancies and child births out of wedlock, with former Seattle Sonics star Shawn Kemp the all time NBA leader in that key stat with an unofficial count of six, not a single game was ever missed by Kemp on account of any of those pregnancies. But ah, we digress – back to Ms. Parker. While there was much ballyhoo about her return 3 games ago vs Phx, it is obvious that she is not yet even halfway back, as she scored just 6 points on 2-5 shooting and LA went down decisively to Phoenix for their first home loss of the season. And in her most recent game (an unimpressive LA loss at Wash), she was even worse, with just 2 points on 1-5 shooting. So with parker not yet in playing shape and Sparks veteran Lisa Leslie still "on the shelf" with her injured knee, we will continue to go with the under whenever the talent starved and offensively challenged LA Sparks hit the court on the road as long as doing so remains profitable.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
But we won’t go crazy with the under here, as despite their combined 3-10 under record in their respective home/road modes for this game, LA has averged 143 total ppg TY on the road, and Conn has averaged that same # of total points TY at home. So take the under here for two units at 141>, or make it for one unit at 140 or 140.5.