Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday July, 17

Marc Lawrence

Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

When the White Sox send Philip Humber to the mound fresh off the disabled list Tuesday night against Jon Lester and the Red Sox in Boston, the Pale Hose will do so knowing Humber's home/road dichotomy weighs heavily in Chicago's favor in this matchup. That's because the visiting team is 10-2 in his team starts this season. On the flip side, Lester's home ERA (5.80) is more than two-and-a-half runs worse than his road ERA (3.04) this season. With Humber hungry and anxious to make a good impression, look for the big ugly dog to bark tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

MTi Sports

Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees

Here is a trend that we published a couple of years ago in our Annual MLB Handicapping Bible: The Blue Jays are 0-20 (-3.2 rpg) since May 2009 as an away dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss by fewer than a dozen runs in which they allowed at least four walks, as long as they did not hold a three-plus run lead in that loss. Since its publication, it has reeled off ELEVEN straight winners and is now 0-31! Consider the Yankees.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

We won with Detroit in this spot last night and will again go with the Tigers here. Detroit has won three of four games to open the second half and while it is only four games over .500, it trails Chicago by just 2.5 games so everything is still well within reach. They had won five straight games prior to the All-Star break and all of those came at home where they are back over .500 once again. The offense has started to produce a lot more and the Tigers are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Los Angeles has been on the exact opposite run as the loss last night dropped it to 1-3 in its four games in the second half of the season. They have been playing a lot better after a very slow start but they have dropped five of their last six road games and still trail the Rangers by 5.5 games in the American League West as Texas was idle last night. The problem has been pitching with a starting ERA of 4.46 on the highway and this is another tough spot as Los Angeles is 3-8 in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Garrett Richards gets the call for the Angels and his current form is not good. He allowed 12 runs over his final two starts before the All-Star break which was enough to get him sent down to the minors. He was unable to figure things out in Salt Lake as he got shellacked against Reno, allowing eight runs on 11 hits and three walks in 3.1 innings. He posted a 5.79 ERA and 2.46 WHIP in two road starts with the Angels and facing a Tigers offense that is peaking is not a good sign to break out of a slump. The Tigers will also be turning to the minors for a starters on Tuesday but they are in much better shape. Jacob Turner is being recalled to take the spot of Drew Smyly who has been place on the disabled list. Turner made one start in Detroit this year and it was a decent one as he allowed one run on four hits in five innings against the Cardinals back in June. In his last start at Toledo, he tossed a shutout as he allowed only three hits and no walks while striking out six in nine innings.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston cashed as our free play last night and is too heavily favored for unit rated status tonight. However for a free play, they do fit a nice system here that plays on home favorites of -140 or higher with a total hat is 10 or more, that are off a home win with a total that was 10 or higher, and had 10 or more hits, if they are taking on an opponent off a road loss that scored 2 or less runs, with 4 or less men left on base, and had no more than 1 error in the game. Boston averages 5.6 runs here at home and has taken 4 of the 5 meetings this season. Chicago only averages 3.7 runs vs lefthanders. Tonight they will face J. Lester who has beaten them the last two times he has faced them allowing just 2 runs in 15 innings. Lester has won 9 of his last 13 home July starts and will oppose P. Humber here tonight. Humber has a 4.86 road era and 8.22 in his last 3 starts. In games against Boston his era is 8.82. Look for Boston to take another here tonight.

Bryan Power

MLB: Texas vs. Oakland
Pick: Texas

While it's tempting to take the A's at home in Tuesday's series opener, the Rangers remain the more powerful club. Since avoiding a four-game sweep in Arlington on July 1st, Oakland has gone on to win 9 of 10 games this month. However, the last six have come against the Mariners & Twins, a pair of last place teams. Texas is definitely a step up in class. Offensively, Oakland simply cannot match their division rival's offensive production. Athletics starter Bartolo Colon has experienced great success previously vs. the Rangers, but I look for a different story here. Texas has won four of its last five. They are also #1 in baseball in runs scored while the A's are 26th. Texas has the highest batting average in the league (.278) while Oakland is last (.228). Go with the favorite.

SPORTS WAGERS

COLORADO -118 over Pittsburgh

You might remember the Pirates being in a similar situation last season when they were the league’s biggest first half surprise heading into the break, just a game behind Cincinnati for first in the NL Central. Then the wheels came off and the Pirates ended up going 16-40 the rest of the way for the worst 2H collapse in history. Coming off the break, Pittsburgh has lost three out of four games, including the opener of this set last night. They overachieved again in the first half and that allows us to fade them in the proper situation.

It's no secret that Erik Bedard gets hurt. He's started more than 28 games only once in his career while averaging only 73 IP over each of the past four seasons. Bedard suffered through a rough June (4.70 xERA) and has given up nine runs with a 6/5 K/BB over 8.3 innings in July. We’re starting to see his repeating demise again and before a likely visit to the disabled list occurs, we should seize this opportunity.

Christian Friedrich has displayed great skills despite poor surface stats thanks to a 37% hit rate, 66% strand rate and a 14% hr/f. That’s just bad luck for a guy with an xERA (3.78), which is almost two runs lower than his actual ERA of 5.60. Friedrich has 69 K’s in 71 innings and is coming off a gem at home against the Phillies in which he went six full and allowed just five hits and one run. Finally, the Pirates have never seen Friedrich, which also works in our favor.

OAKLAND +106 over Texas

The Athletics are the hottest team in baseball right now with nine wins in 10 games and for whatever reason, the Rangers bring out the best in Bartolo Colon. He beat the Rangers at home on June 6th, going eight scoreless innings to run his career total against them to 18-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 184.2 innings. Colon is still going strong with a 48% groundball rate, outstanding control (17 BB in 104 IP) and back-to-back wins over Seattle and Boston. The A’s, who have scored 27 times over their past five games, get an opportunity to score a few more against Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has not been sharp, giving up 40 hits in his first four starts over 23 messy innings for a BAA of .385. He’s also surrendered 16 earned runs, resulting in an inflated ERA of 6.26. This park is likely to aid Oswalt but it does the same for the A’s and the superior Colon. Oakland has held its own against this club, winning half of the 10 games they’ve played against one another this season. The A’s weren’t hot then. They are now.

Miami -110 over CHICAGO

Travis Wood has won four consecutive starts for a truly awful team and has earned praise in the process, posting a 3.05 ERA over 10 season starts. The all-star break couldn’t have come at a worse time for this truly ordinary pitcher. Wood loses some momentum with an 11-day rest coming off the break. He has an ordinary BB/K rate of 24/42 in 64 IP. He also has a commonplace groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio of 41%/22%/37%. What isn’t ordinary is his unsustainable 3.05 ERA, which is almost two runs lower than his xERA of 4.69. The chances for an ordinary pitcher winning five straight for a poor club are remote at best. Remember, Wood went 6-6 with the Reds last year with an ERA of 4.84 in 106 frames and that’s the Travis Wood we expect to see in the second half. Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez is wickedly good. He has one of the lowest line-drive rates in the league at 18%. His groundball rate is a stellar 50% and he also has 95 K’s and just 31 walks in 107 innings. Sanchez has been hurt by a low 69% strand rate and should that normalize (it usually does), he has the chance to be one of the best pitchers in the game in the second half. This is a gross underlay on the superior team with the better-quality pitcher.

Scott Spreitzer

Colorado -120

The Pittsburgh Pirates certainly are a much better team at PNC than they are on the road where they have won 20 of 46 games in 2012. Erik Bedard has struggled on the road, to put it mildly. He's had his problems over his last five starts, no matter the venue. Bedard has been tagged for 21 earned runs and 43 base runners in his last 23 2/3 IP. He's averaging less than 5 IP per start in those outings with a hefty 7.97 ERA & 1.81 WHIP. The southpaw will toe the Coors Field rubber for the first time in his career tonight and faces a Colorado "hit squad" that plates a whopping 7.24 rpg in home night contests. And Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler are on fire at the plate. The Rockies will counter with a lefty of their own in Christian Friedrich. The 25-year old's numbers don't look so hot overall, but he has pitched pretty well in his last two home starts, allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 11 innings of action, to go along with 12 "punchouts." I simply believe Pittburgh is going to have a tough time "keeping up" in this one. The Pirates enter on a 0-5 slide when Bedard starts and I'm betting they'll lose another one tonight. I'm laying the price with the Rockies on Tuesday.

Stephen Nover

NY Mets +115

The Mets have reached the must-win stage of the season in this crucial matchup - for them - against the NL East-leading Nationals. New York trails Washington by six games and needs to beat the Nationals, particularly in this game since Washington is going with its No. 5 starter, Ross Detwiler.

If the Mets fare poorly in this series, they could punt the season and start looking at younger players, including a lot of highly-regarded pitching prospects.

The Mets were idle on Monday, while the Nationals concluded a four-game series in South Florida against the Marlins. This extra rest could factor as the temperature could reach triple digits in Washington D.C.

Detwiler has allowed 19 baserunners in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. The Nationals are 2-3 in Detwiler's last five starts. This is the Mets' third look at Detwiler this season. Washington is likely to once again be missing middle infielder Ian Desmond.

Mets starter Jon Niese had a rough start against the suddenly-hot Cubs during his last start. Previous to that, however, Niese was 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA in his last six starts.

Niese is 2-0 with a 3.42 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings during four career starts versus the Nationals. The Nationals are much improved this season, but they have yet to face Niese this year.

Dr. Ed Meyer

Tampa Bay -144

The Indians are 2-19 on the road vs a 500-plus team that is seeking immediate revenge for a one-run loss. In addition, the Tribe is 0-8 when Josh Tomlin starts as a dog when they won his last start.

The Rays are the best team in the league when seeking revenge for wire-to-wire loss, going 32-13 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series. Tampa is number one in winning percentage and number one in net profit in this spot.

Finally, the Tribe has shown a lack of mental toughness in this spot, going 12-40 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series when they are off a night game.

The Rays should be able to impose their will on the Indians.

FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 6 Cleveland 3

Jack Jones

Pittsburgh Pirates +111

The Pittsburgh Pirates (49-40) are just one game out of first place in the NL Central with a lot to play for in the second half. The Colorado Rockies (35-54) are in last place in the NL West with virtually nothing to play for the rest of the way.

With motivation on their side, and an edge on the mound, I'll side with the Pirates to win at a great price tonight over the Rockies. Erik Bedard sports a 4.80 ERA this season, which is far from spectacular.

However, he has been better than Colorado's Christian Friedrich, who is 5-6 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the season. The left-hander is 2-3 with an 8.01 ERA and 1.91 WHIP at Coors Field this year.

The Pirates are 20-6 in their last 26 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. The Rockies are 1-6 in Friedrich's last 7 starts. Colorado is 21-44 in their last 65 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Nationals -116

Washington went down Monday, but I expect it to bounce back here against a New York club it has defeated eight times in the past 10 meetings. The Nationals are a perfect 6-0 in their last six games following a loss and 5-0 in their last five home games versus a team with a winning record. The Mets enter this contest on a four-game skid. In addition, the Nationals are 7-0 in Detwiler's last 7 starts versus NL East foes and 12-4 in his last 16 starts versus a team with a winning record. The Mets are 0-4 in Niese's last four road starts versus a team with a winning record. We'll bet the Nats.

Wunderdog

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -155

The Cleveland Indians opened their series with Tampa with a win 3-2 last night. They will certainly be hard pressed to duplicate that pitching performance tonight behind Josh Tomlin. Tomlin owns a 5.45 ERA on the season, which is even worse on the road at 6.45. The Tribe is now just 19-39 in their last 58 as a road dog of +110 to +150, and with a total set from 7 to 8.5, they are just 3-10 in their last 13. Tampa Bay is tough at home, and have won four of their last five behind Moore vs. a winning club. The Tribe has struggled to find the win column in Tampa Bay where they are just 3-10 in their last 13 here. Play on the Rays.

Dave Price

Detroit Tigers -120

The Tigers get the call as my free play as they have won 6 in a row at home. The Angels, meanwhile, have dropped 5 of their last 6 on the road. They have also lost 9 of their last 13 in Detroit. I don't believe Garrett Richards can be trusted right now. He was lit up for seven runs and 10 hits - three homers - in 4 1-3 innings in his last start and is carrying an ERA of 12.46 ERA in his last two starts. Take the Tigers.

Jeff Alexander

Pittsburgh Pirates +111

The Pirates are showing value in the underdog role against a Colorado club that has dropped 24 of its last 35 overall and 12 of its last 17 at home. The Rockies took Game 1 of this series but are 6-20 in their last 26 during Game 2 of a series and 2-9 in their last 11 games following a win. The Pirates, who have won 11 of their last 16, are 4-0 in their last 4 during Game 2 of a series and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. Bet the Bucs.