Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati/ Arizona Under 8.5: Let's take a look at the ML for a second here. The Reds are without Votto (the best hitter in the NL right now), yet they are still faves of 170+. That has me thinking that the D-backs are not expected to score a whole lot, and without Votto the Reds should struggle offensively as well. They did last night and with Votto slumping of late they have struggled to score some during this homestand. For the year the Reds have put up 4.6 rpg at home, but in their last 4 here they have averaged just 3.8 rpg. Tonight they face Trevor Bauer, who has allowed 2 runs or less in 2 of his 3 career starts and he has the added advantage of having never faced the Reds. Tonight the reds may not have to score much as they have their ace on the mound. Johnny Cueto comes in having allowed 3 ERS' or less on ZERO HR's in his last 8 starts, posting a 2.23 ERA over that stretch. At home he has a solid 2.28 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and has allowed just 2 HR's here all year. Johnny hasn't faced the D-Backs since 2009, but he still has allowed just 5 total ER's in his 4 career starts vs them and just 1 ER in his 2 career starts here vs them. The D-backs score just 3.5 rpg on the road and have put up just 8 total runs in the first 4 games of this trip, so I don't expect them to get much off of Cueto tonight. Both offenses will struggle to night as this game stays comfortably under the total.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ San Francisco Under 9: I know this game is in the Heat in Atlanta, but I feel this line is too high. Barry Zito has had a nice year for the Giants with a 7-6 mark and a 4.01 ERA and after his two worst outings of the year he has bounced back nicely with 3 good outings in a row as he has a 2.50 ERA over that stretch. Barry has faced the Braves just 5 times in his career and he has a 2.45 ERA in those starts. I know that he has only faced them 3 times since 2008, but still all three were in this park and he has a 1.29 ERA in those starts. The Giant offense scores well on the road, but will be without their best hitter (Melky Cabrera) in this one, and that should limit the damage they will do vs Jair Jurrjens. Speaking of Jair, he has really been pitching well since his return to the majors, as he has a 2.13 ERA in his 4 starts since being brought back. He does have a 5.09 ERA at home overall, but in his 2 starts since his return he has allowed just 2 ER's in 10.2 innings of work.We know the Braves can hit but allot of these guys haven't seen Barry and that should give him an edge here. Both starters are pitching well right now and that should keep the scoring down here. Look for 7 runs at best.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
COLORADO -120 over Pittsburgh: I had a feeling I should have played the Rockies last night, but I just didn't pull the trigger. I will tonight. Pittsburgh will be sending out one of the worst starters in the NL tonight in Erik Bedard. Erik is just 4-10 on the year, with a 4.80 ERA.On the road he is 2-7 with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, while at night he is 2-7 with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Not good numbers when your about to face a Rockies team that scores 5.98 rpg at home, including 7.24 rpg at home at night. The Rockies have averaged just 3.3 rpg in their last 10 games, but 6 of those were on the road and during their home stand they have put up 5+ runs in 3 of the 4 games so far. This is a different offense at home than on the road. Despite putting up about a rpg more on the road, the Pirates have still struggled away from home, going just 20-26 on the road, compared to having the best home record in baseball. Christian Friedrich gets the ball for the Rockies and while he has an 8.01 ERA at home, he has pitched much better here in his last 2 starts, allowing just 2 ER's over 11 innings. Pittsburgh relies too much on MCcutchen offensively and I believe that will hurt them in the second half of the year, especially if their pitching starts to struggle. Tonight they do not have a good starter on the mound and Colorado is a dangerous team at home. Look for the Pirates to drop their 2nd straight at Coors. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- Since 2009 the Rockies are 20-4 at home off a win in which they scored in at least 2 separate innings and had at least 6 hits.
St Louis -114 over MILWAUKEE: Google News Play St Louis has owned this series of late, winning 5 of 7 this year and 11 of 14 overall. St Louis struggled to score last night til they put up 3 runs in the 9th to steal the game, but they shouldn't have problems scoring tonight as they will be facing Randy Wolf. Randy has been by far the worst pitcher on the brewers staff, as he comes in with a 2-6 record and a 5.80 ERA overall, with the Brewers going just 5-12 in his starts this year. At home he is 1-4 with a 5.10 ERA, while at night he is 2-3 with a 6.64 ERA. He also has faced St Louis 3 times here since last year and he is 1-2 with a 7.88 ERA. Joe Kelly has done a fine job for the Cards so far, going 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA overall, while on the road he is 1-0 with a 375 ERA in 2 starts. He has allowed 3 ER's or less in each of his 6 career starts this year and has the advantage of having not faced the Brewers. The Pirates may be headed for s light slump and the Reds may struggle for a bit with the loss of Votto, so this could just be the time for the Cards to make their move. They have the better offense and much better pitcher on the mound, plus their pen gets the edge as the Brewers have a 5.99 pen ERA at home this year. Too much for the Brew Crew to overcome here as St. Louis takes game 2 of this important series.
POWER ANGLES FOR TUESDAY (7-7 -1.78 UNITS)
Since 2008 Cleveland is 5-23 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least its last games and this is not game 1 of a series. Play on Tampa Bay -152 over Cleveland
Since 2009 the Mariners are 5-23 as a road dog of more than 110 and are facing a team off at least 2 losses in a row. Play on Kansas City -131 over Seattle.
Tony George
Cincinnati -154
Chalky yes but worth the stretch with Cueto on the hill for the Reds, just after the D Backs snap their 6 game winning streak last night. Better team, better pitcher, revenge minded, I like the Reds tonight to bounce back behind their ace with a vastly better bullpen backing him up against Trevor Bauer with a hefty ERA. Worth the reach on the moneyline here for a half unit play. I hardly ever lay over -150 even on free plays but the Reds should walk away with this one. Arizona just 3-7 their last 10 as a dog, and have won just 4 out of their last 13 games.
GoodFella
Oakland +101
Yup, we are fading Oswalt again here, as we have cashed either a play on the OVER when he's started or faded him & IMO, this Oakland club is STILL "UNDER valued" some & Colon has simply shown freakish "command" of his pitches & he truly can be sneaky good. I also like the fact the Rangers are NOT hitting right now, just .211 their L/4 ballgames, while the HOT Athletics are hitting at a .290 clip over their L/4. Add on the Rangers bully struggling of late and the A's bully simply dominating of late & I see GREAT VALUE on the "home dog" here & my money is on the A's tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +119 over SAN DIEGO
Jordan Lyles made 15 stars for Houston last year, pitching to a 2-8 record with a 5.36 ERA. However, his solid control and 3.98 xERA indicated some hidden value. This season, Lyles has tweaked some of his mechanics, resulting in increased pitch velocity and movement. While Lyles’ improvements are notable, this is more about wagering against the Padres and Russ Ohlendorf. Ohlendorf gets this start simply because of the Padres attrition rate. San Diego’s DL list currently includes seven starters, most of whom are either done for the season or not expected back soon. Ohlendorf, his 52% career fly-ball % and other poor skills has venue going for him but little else. In two starts and four relief appearances this year, covering just 17 frames, he has 10 walks and a 2.02 WHIP. He has a pathetic 18% groundball rate and a 30% line-drive rate. Russ Ohlendorf was the 12th or 13th man on the Padres starting pitcher totem pole before the season began. He hasn’t moved up because of his abilities but is nevertheless forced into action. Fading him makes much more sense than backing him as the ! chalk.
Evan Abrams
Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have dropped six of their last nine games and are in jeopardy of simply falling out of the American League East...Granted they are still a half game ahead of the Blue Jays in the division, but you cannot lose home games to the Indians and expect to sneak into the wild card. Matt Moore has been an absolutely different pitcher at home versus on the road this season. If you look at his last six home starts, Moore has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of those starts. The Rays are going to need Moore to go 6+innings in this game to give their offense a chance to give him some run support. Take the Rays at home tonight.
Arizona D-Backs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
The Diamondbacks broke the Reds six game winning streak last night with a 5-3 victory. The loss was even worse for Cincinnati because they also learned they will be without their star first baseman for around a month Joey Votto. No Votto in the lineup for the Reds will be a tough pill to swallow, but it will help the process when pitchers like Johnny Cueto are on the mound. Cueto has won 5 of his last 7 starts and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of those starts.The Reds value is a little bit "chalky" here, but it should be just fine when the Reds get back on their winning ways at home against the Diamondbacks.
Joe Gavazzi
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
Despite just a 4-4 record in their last 8 games, the Nationals remain the best in the National League with winning records both at home and on the road. Detweiler has been a solid contributor even at the bottom of the staff that leads the Nationals allowing just 3.7 RPG at home. Washington holds a huge bullpen advantage in this series with an ERA of 3.07 compared to the Mets, 4.90. The New Yorkers have lost their way with 4 consecutive defeats. After a solid runup, Niese comes off a busted start in which he allowed 7 runs in 7 IP vs. the Cubs. For the season, the Mets allow 5.1 RPG on the road.
Scott Delaney
My free pick tonight is on the Atlanta Braves, as I think they're on a much more significant streak than the visiting San Francisco Giants. The National League tribe went into the All-Star break on a four-game win streak, and came out winning three more in a row. Now they host the N.L. West-contending Giants, and though this could be a huge showdown, the Braves are going to roll in this first one.
Even though the Giants swept the Astros over the weekend, and had yesterday off, I don't think it'll matter as much as if they played the series in Houston. Culprit: humidity!
It's much more humid in Houston, than Frisco. And now the Giants take their game to Atlanta, where it's supposed to reach as high as 71 percent humidity tonight, and the temps will feel like it's in the high 80s. It will be muggy, and I don't know how the Giants adapt on night one.
For that reason alone I give the nod to the Braves.
But add in the surge they're on right now, and it's easy to see why this value money is on Atlanta. Factor in Jair Jurrjens being up for the Braves, and I really like my chances. Since returning after two months in Triple-A, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA. He's shown good command, too, walking just five batters in 25-1/3 innings while limiting opponents to a .247 average.
Take Atlanta in this one, as it rolls to a series-opening win.
3♦ ATLANTA
Chuck O'Brien
Taking a shot with my freebie tonight, as I look to extend the free pick run that dates back to March 13, and is currently at 75-46-1, as I take a look at the Oakland Athletics at home against the Texas Rangers.
In a matchup of grizzled pitching veterans, I am thinking I'm going to play on Bartolo Colon's side here, as he looked strong once again, in his second start since returning from a strained right oblique, allowing just one run in 8-2/3 innings against the Seattle Mariners his last time out. Out of the 93 pitches that the veteran threw, just 14 were balls.
And yes, the Rangers are an entirely different ballclub than the M's, but he's experienced enough to know how to pitch these guys. This is an explosive lineup, and he's going to mix and match his pitches well in this one, keeping the Rangers guessing as much as possible.
Now, all that being said, I'm not advocating the listing of pitchers. I don't care about Colon or Oswalt. I know Texas' fiery right-hander is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two career starts against the A's, but I'm not necessarily going against him either.
This is more about the A's on another little win streak, as they come in fresh off a sweep of Minnesota and winners of nine of their last 10 games. And make note, the first of those victories coming against the Rangers on July 1.
Suddenly, the A's have played themselves into the postseason race thanks to some strong pitching and timely hitting. This is a short two-game set between the teams, an important series if you will, and I think the A's know the urgency they're playing with.
2♦ OAKLAND
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the streaking Cubs to continue their winning ways tonight at home against the Marlins.
Chicago ended the first half of the season with a win, and they have won all three to start the second half of the season.
Travis Wood will look to extend the Cubbies winning streak to five in a row when he takes the mound against Anibal Sanchez tonight.
Wood has been on a tear as well, as the southpaw has won each of his last four starts, and has allowed only three earned runs his last 26-plus innings pitched.
As for Sanchez, he has won just twice in his last twelve starts, and has allowed a whopping 30 hits his last 21-plus innings of work.
Cubs are hot right now, their pitcher is hot right now, and they also happen to be at home for this game.
Go with Chicago to extend to a season-high five wins in a row with the victory tonight,
4♦ CUBS
Craig Davis
Tuesday's free play is the New York Yankees on the Run Line.
Surprisingly, they are winning games despite injuries and errors and really not playing their best ball. Just like last night... the Yankees weren't playing well and then all of a sudden they get the bases loaded and Raul Ibanez hits a grand slam.
It's a new player every night that comes through for the Bronx Bombers, and tonight they get their horse back on the mound as CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.45 ERA) comes back from the DL, having suffered through a strained groin.
He tossed a simulated game in Kansas City during the All-Star Break and then again last Friday at Yankee Stadium, and coaches are convinced he's ready to go. Granted, he might be on a pitch count, but even five or six innings out of Sabathia is better than most of their other options.
Sabathia was on a bit of a roll before getting injured, winning four of his last five... not to mention the fact he's 4-2 in six home starts this season. Although he hasn't seen the Blue Jays head-to-head this year, over his career he's 12-3 against them with a 3.16 ERA in 16 starts, but even more impressive is the 7-0 record and the 2.73 ERA in the last eight starts against them. Can you say... domination??
Taking the mound for the Blue Jays is Brett Cecil (2-1, 6.75) who was roughed up in his last start since being promoted from Double-A ball. Cecil allowed seven runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings of work in an 11-9 win over Chicago back on July 8.
For his career, Cecil is 4-3 in nine starts vs. the Yanks, but his ERA in those starts is a hair under 5.00. Yikes. Not exactly a warming feeling.
I'm taking the Yankees by 4+ over the Jays as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Chris Jordan
I am on an 18-6 free-pick run and tonight I look to extend that with a play on the Washington Nationals and Ross Detwiler over the New York Mets. I see the Nats are laying a cheap price of -1.20, and you might as well get used to me looking for value the rest of the season when it comes to the Nationals.
I love Strasburg. I love my boy Bryce - a Las Vegas-product. And I've always been a fan of Davey Johnson. I like the Washington Nationals. Tonight I like Detwiler and his chances of freezing the Mets' lineup, using his arsenal to earn his first decision since June 5.
He comes in after being fortunate enough not to take a loss in his last outing, in which when he surrendered 11 hits, and three runs over five innings against the Giants. Tonight he gets a Mets team that has lost four straight and that is 3-7 in July.
One night after the 2012 Men's Basketball team lit up the nation's capital with the Commander in Chief in attendance, it's going to be the city's newest darlings putting in work to keep a stronghold on first place in the National League East. All Nationals here, with Detwiler running the show.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Matt Rivers
13-9 free play run the past 22 days.
Tonight's free play winner is the Cardinals over the Brewers.
St. Louis appeared to be on the verge of their 4th straight loss when they came up with three runs in the 9th to stun the Brewers, 3-2 last night.
The Cardinals just seem to have the Brewers number, as St. Louis is now 5-2 in the season series this year against Milwaukee, and of course they beat the Brew Crew in last October's postseason en-route to their World Series title.
Rookie Joe Kelly will get the call against veteran Randy Wolf, and Kelly is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his short time up in the starting rotation.
Wolf on the other hand appears to be on his last legs, as the veteran southpaw is just 2-6 for the season while the Brewers are 5-12 when he starts. Over Wolf's last three efforts, he is 0-1 with a 9.37 ERA and the team has lost all 3 of the games.
Stick with the Cards to continue their mastery over the Brewers.
4♦ ST. LOUIS
Dom Chambers
Let’s take a look at the New York Yankees on the run line to beat the Toronto Blue Jays.
CC Sabathia starts for the Yankees. He is coming off a short stint on the DL and is eager to continue his winning ways. Overall, he is 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA. In his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA.
He is on a better run than Toronto starter Brett Cecil. Overall, he is 4-1 with a 6.75 ERA. But in his last three starts, he is 1-1 with a 9.77 ERA.
At Yankee Stadium, the balls fly out of the park and expect the Yankees to post plenty of runs in this contest.
With Sabathia pitching, the Yankees will not need that many runs to cover the run line.
2♦ YANKEES -1.5
Erin Rynning
Baltimore at Minnesota
Play: Baltimore
The Orioles and Twins are set for their second game of their series tonight in Target Field. The Orioles expect to send once highly touted prospect Zach Britton to the hill. Britton will be making his first start of the season, while returning from a sore shoulder in 2011. Britton is a perfect example of the lack of development from the Orioles’ prized pitching prospects. The southpaw was sailing along quite nicely last season with a wonderful 2.93 ERA in April and May. However, the pitching coaches meddled with a good thing. They mixed around with Britton’s mechanics which included moving him to the first base side of the rubber. Well, he was never the same pitcher, and as mentioned eventually was hurt. This spring and moving forward the young left-hander has evolved under the tutelage of pitching development coordinator Rick Peterson. They’ve got his mechanics revamped, while taking pressure of his shoulder, and his velocity is up. Keep in mind Britton is a rare sinker balling left-hander as the upside is high. In addition, that’s the exact profile we want to see against this Twins lineup in warmer weather. Meanwhile, the Twins will counter with their own young hurler in Samuel Deduno. He’ll join what seems an endless list of starting pitchers for the Twins this year. Deduno features a good arm, dealing around 90 mph with a curve and cutter. However, command is a major hurdle for the youngster and will create issues establishing him as a big league caliber starting pitcher. We’ll side with the Orioles and Britton tonight in Minnesota.