Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 2

Marc Lawrence

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

When the Diamondbacks meet the Mets in Game Two of this four-game set at Citi Field in New York the Snakes will do so knowing they are a mind-boggling 15-1 in games behind Patrick Corbin this season, including 8-0 away. Meanwhile, the Mets are 1-6 at home and 2-8 at night in games behind Jeremy Hefner this season. Until it breaks, we're not about to fix it. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

John Ryan

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies

The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will get his road upset win tonight. Dodgers are hot, but they are still an offensively challenged team. They rank 28th scoring 3.63 RPG while the Rockies rank 6th scoring 4.70 RPG. Dodgers rank 29th with 12.54 bases per game while Colorado ranks second with 15.47 total bases per game. As great Clayton Kershaw has pitched he is just 1-7 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a 46% to 49% win percentage in games played over the last two seasons. Dodgers are just 10-20 (-12.8 Units) against the money line after 6 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Colorado has the vastly superior bullpen and that will serve them extremely well when starter Oswalt needs to come out. Take the Rockies.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies

The Dodgers took three of four games against the Phillies to finish their homestand with a 6-1 record and going back, they have now won eight of their last nine. This is certainly a solid turnaround from their horrible start as they have made up a ton of ground and are just 3.5 games behind Arizona in the National League West. Los Angeles now hits the road where it has won only 13 times all season. Clayton Kershaw is coming off a rare win and while that may sound strange, he had not had a victory in over a month. He has a 2.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP so he is pitching like a Cy Young candidate once again but he is not getting the wins as he is just 6-5 while Los Angeles is just 9-8 in his 17 starts. The Dodgers are averaging only 3.00 rpg in those outings and Kershaw has gotten more than four runs of support only three times all season. Colorado is 25-19 at home following a series with against the Giants. The Rockies are a game under .500 overall but trails Arizona by just a game and a half and they home to continue their home domination of the Dodgers as they have won 10 of the last 14 meetings. Roy Oswalt will be making just his third start of the season and first home start since joining Colorado. He has been pretty average thus far but he does have a spectacular 16:1 K:BB ratio and pitching in Coors Field has never been an issue as he is 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five career starts.

Joe Gavazzi

St Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: St Louis Cardinals

This line clearly the function of the reputation of Weaver and the potential of the Angels, which was met with a 6-0 sweep of Detroit and Houston in the last week. At the same time, St. Louis has at last hit the downer winning just 2/8 recent games to fall 2 games behind Pittsburgh in both the Division and for the best record in MLB. But in the position of Avis, you can be sure the Cards will try harder and the fact they are 24-7/loss is most reassuring. St. Louis has 10 more wins than LAA for the season and its MLB best road record of 27-16 compared to the sub .500 home mark of the Halos. Weaver’s last 5 starts following time spent on the DL have resulted in the 0-3 mark and 4.40 ERA in June. ST. Louis is 12-4 in starts by Lynn where he has posted a record of 10-2 with 3.52 ERA. Make St. Louis your dog of the day.

Ray Monohan

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees are sputtering but they jumped all over the Twins Monday night with a 10-4 win that started their series and ended a 5 game losing streak. This is certainly not a vintage Yankees team but with 2B Robinson Cano raking they are more than capable of keeping the wins coming against a bad team like Minnesota. Yankees starter Phil Hughes is capable of flustering a lineup and New York definitely has an edge in the pen, as they demonstrated last night doing most of the damage against Minnesota relievers. Hughes has been inconsistent all season long but he loves to get away from the glare of the Bronx pitching much better on the road. Love this matchup and surprised you are getting dog value given the teams involved.

Rocketman Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to New York to take on the Mets on Tuesday night. Arizona is 9-3 this year when the total is 7 or less. The NY Mets are 7-22 last 3 years and 1-8 this year as a home underdog of +125 to +150. The Mets are 85-117 last 3 years at home. The Mets are 15-25 this year at home scoring only 3.3 runs per game where they have a team batting average of only .212. Pat Corbin gets the start for Arizona where he is 9-0 with a 2.22 ERA overall this year, 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA on the road this season and 0-0 with a 1.96 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeremy Hefner starts for the Mets where he is 2-6 overall this season and 0-3 at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

St Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: St Louis Cardinals

On Tuesday in MLB Action the St. Louis Cardinals travel down the road to Los Angeles to take on the Angles after a disappointing series in Oakland. The Cardinals look to rebound knowing they fits the fine indicator as seen below in the graph. St. Louis has won 15 straight times if they are playing off a loss by 2 through 6 runs and their starter in tha...t loss allowed 6 or more runs. As seen by the 6-2 win scored the Cardinals have bounced back big. St. Louis likes playing on Tuesday as they have won 9 of 12 times. They do well vs teams under .500 with a 25-15 record. When installed as a road dog from +100 to +125 the Cardinals are plus units going 7-4. The Angles have lost their last 4 home games vs National League opponents. The Angels will face a tough Cardinals team, but they do have the Motivation and momentum following a solid road trip which saw them sweep Detroit and Houston. The Angles though have lost 8 of 12 as a home favorite from -125 to -150. The Pitching in this one looks like a real dandy. The Angles have staff ace Jered Weaver going tonight. The Angles are just 4-4 in his home starts and he has allowed 9 earned runs spanning 12 innings over his last 2 starts here while giving up 16 hits and an alarming 3 home runs. In his Career Weaver is 0-2 with an Era around 5 vs St. Louis. The Cardinals counter with Lance Lynn tonight. In his 16 starts thus far this season the Cardinals have come up winners 12 times. When we get to the bullpen the Cardinals have a nice advantage as they have a 2.66 road bullpen era which is #1 overall and over a full run better than the LA 4.59 Home Era. St. Louis is the highest scoring team at 5 runs per game and ranked #3 overall in fewest runs allowed. The Angles allow the 3rd Most hits of any team. In Closing our selection will be on the St. Louis Cardinals here as nice dog. The Cardinals have several aforementioned indicators on their side tonight and will look to get back on the winning track.

Bruce Marshall

St. Louis vs. LA Angels
Pick: St. Louis

Interesting angle to this game as the Cardinals face former hero Albert Pujols for the first time since he moved to the Angels in free agency last season. The Halos have played in streaks this season, having earlier won eight games in a row at the end of May and now on a 6-game win streak after road sweeps of Detroit and Houston. The Angels, however, are only 20-23 at home, and there is not much evidence that Tuesday starter Jered Weaver is back to his old self after a 7-week stint on the DL with a broken elbow; though effective in his last outing on Thursday vs. a Tigers side the Halos always beat, he had allowed 13 runs in 17 2/3 IP in his previous three outings. True, St. Louis starter Lance Lynn has not been quite as overwhelming in recent starts (four or more runs allowed in three of last four starts), but the Cards are 12-4 whenever Lynn has taken the mound this season (with Lynn's mark at 10-2).

Ben Burns

Baltimore vs. Chi. White Sox
Pick: Under

While he didn't get any run support, Danks got back on track last time out. He allowed just one earned run through 7 1/3 innings. He had seven K's and didn't walk a batter.

In three home starts, Danks has quietly gone 2-1 with a stellar 2.11 ERA and 0.703 WHIP. He's averaged better than seven innings per start here, striking out 18 while walking one. Not surprisingly, all three of his home starts have fallen below the total.

Since May of 2011, the Sox are 11-6 when he starts here, Danks allowing two earned runs or less nine times. The "under" is a profitable 12-5-1 his last 18 home starts.

Hammel was also sharp last time out. He allowed two runs in seven innings, a game which finished with a score of 4-3. Hammel has a 3.37 ERA in three starts vs. Chicago, the "under" going 2-0-1.

The Sox have seen the "under" go 29-14-6 the past couple of Julys. I won't be surprised if they begin their current month by playing another relatively low-scoring affair. Consider the Under.

Bryan Power

Milwaukee vs. Washington
Pick: Washington -1.5

I'm just going to keep going against the Brewers here. I've done so w/ my previous four free plays, and won them all! Last night, it was the Nationals in the opener of a four-game set. Bryce Harper led the way by homering right off the bat (pardon the pun) in the 10-5 Washington victory. Tonight, I'm going to have to play the Run Line though as the ML is too high....

Stephen Strasburg's season is being judged as a disappointment so far, but really he's pitched much better than his record. He has a 2.41 ERA overall in 15 starts (and 1.039 WHIP) and at home he's been especially great with a 1.34 ERA and 0.851 WHIP. He's allowed 2 ER or less in seven straight starts. Poor run support has plagued him all season, but what's promising is that he's lowered his pitches per inning from 16.4 to 15.8 and as a result he's lasted at least seven innings six of his last eight starts. His average fastball velocity of 95.4 mph trails only Matt Harvey.

Milwaukee is just awful right now. They have now dropped six straight, the last four all coming on the road where they are only 13-26 for the year. Since the start of last season, the Brew Crew is now 18-46 as a road underdog.

Jesse Schule

Tampa Bay vs. Houston
Pick: Under

Alright, let's try this again. We had the under in yesterday's series opener, and things looked on the up and up until the Astro's bullpen collapsed in the seventh inning allowing four runs, and then three more in the eighth.

It didn't help matters that Dallas Keuchel couldn't get out of the fifth inning after allowing five runs on eight hits.

Houston will hope for a better performance from Erik Bedard tonight, and he's certainly been sharp lately. Bedard (3-3, 4.44 ERA) got a win over the Cardinals, allowing three runs on seven hits over six innings his last time out. That was just the second time in his last nine starts that he's allowed more than two runs.

He's been particularly good at home, going 2-0 with a 2.48 ERA in six starts (8 games played) in Houston.

David Price will return to the rotation for the Rays, and he looked good in his last rehab assignment with Charlotte. He said: ""I didn't feel tired whatsoever out there," said Price, after tossing 5 scoreless innings for the Stone Crabs. "The humidity out here can take a lot out of you, but it cooled down a lot after the bullpen. The body feels strong and I've been out in the sun quite a bit.

Facing the Astros at Minute Maid Park appears to be an ideal situation for Price as he tries to settle back into the rotation. He appears healthy, and that's not good news for an Astros team that is missing several key players and has struggled to score runs.

Will Rogers

Chicago vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland

It would be pretty tough to make a case for the Cubs here, but at the same time it seems like a pretty easy play on the Athletics. Therefore, I'll offer a small recommendation on Oakland Tuesday as these two teams open up a three-game set.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. AJ Griffin - The last time we saw Griffin he was tossing a complete game shutout against the Reds here at home, allowing only two hits. In seven home starts this season, he has a 3.07 ERA. When taking the mound off an A's win, Griffin has a 14-3 TSR.

2. Homefield Advantage - The Cubs are not a good road team at 18-23 for the year, averaging just 3.5 runs/game. They are on a 36-76 run in the underdog role away from home since the start of last season. The A's have the best home record among all American League teams at 26-13. That includes 23-9 as a favorite.

3. X-Factor - Cubs starter Scott Feldman has never had much luck here by the Bay, going 1-5 with a 10.24 ERA in six career starts back when he was a member of the Texas Rangers.

Stephen Nover

Hpuston +155

Rarely will I look to back the Astros. The situation has to be right and the price has to have top value. Those two factors line up in this matchup.

Lefty David Price is making his first start since May 15. He's been out with a left triceps strain. Price was having a terrible season when he went out with a 1-4 record and 5.24 ERA. Tampa Bay had lost seven of his last nine road starts.

Maybe Price immediately regains his former elite status. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe it takes him a few starts to get going. One thing's for sure, though, he's not going deep into this game. The Rays are only looking to get five maybe six innings at the most from Price.

The Astros are 21-40 (34 percent) versus right-handers, but 9-13 (41 percent) versus lefties. They also have won two more games at home than on the road. Houston also might catch a break if Evan Longoria misses a fourth straight game with a foot injury.

I'm not trying to kid myself, though. The Astros are a bad team. This is a play based on value, the uncertain performance of Price and getting Erik Bedard as the Astros' pitcher.

Bedard is 2-0 with a 2.70 in six home starts with Houston. Bedard has given up three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. After a slow start, he's been very consistent.

He also has a strong track record against Tampa Bay from having been in the American League since 2002 until last year. Bedard is 11-5 with a 3.32 ERA in 22 starts against the Rays.

King Creole

Rays / Astros Under 8

Two of Major League Baseball's most offensively-challenged teams 'have at it' in Game Two of this series on Tuesday night. Working behind the dish in Houston tonight will be Man in Blue JAMES HOYE. Sharp Totals Players are probably already aware that Hoye has been one of the best 'UNDER' Umpires in American League games over the last 5 seasons (30-49-2 O/U = 62%). ANY percentage on the PLUS side of 60% over a 5-year period is extremely significant from an Over / Under perspective.

For the season, Hoye has also had solid 'UNDER' numbers. He comes in with an average of 7.7 combined runs-per-game for the year. And in the 'what have you done for me lately' department, we note that HOYE comes in to tonight's game on a 4-game 'UNDER' streak in his last 4 overall... with an average of only 6.5 combined RPG. As this is an 'All LEFTY' pitching matchup, we must also point out that Hoye has gone a perfect 0-2 O/U so far this season in these same matchups. For these two teams, Hoye has gone 1-5 O/U in his last 6 Tampa Bay games... and 2-11-3 O/U in his last 16 Houston games.

TAMPA BAY: 3-8 O/U last 11 road games... 0-4 O/U in Game Two of a series... 1-5 O/U playing off a win... 1-4 O/U in last 5 road FAV roles... 1-4-1 O/U after scoring 5+ runs in their last game.

HOUSTON: 3-13 O/U as BIG home dogs of +150 to +200... 0-7 O/U vs an opponent who scored 5+ runs in their last game... 0-5-1 O/U in Game Two of a series... 2-6 O/U in their last 8 vs southpaws... 3-7-1 O/U after scoring 2 < runs in their last game.

Tonight is lefty David Price's FIRST game back off the DL since May 15th. That's a little over 7 weeks that he's been hurt with the strained triceps muscle. I have followed his rehab progress (and minor league assignments) from the get-go since he's on my fantasy team. And he is RARIN' to go. There's a great chance he regains his 2012 Cy Young award form in the second half... and that starts tonight.

For Houston, lefty Eric Bedard has been EXTREMELY sharp as of late... with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts and a perfect 0-3 O/U record (and 1-5 O/U in his last 6). His road ERA on the year is a whopping 6.69. But at HOME on the year, it;s just 2.48.