Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 20,2010

BIG AL
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Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Chicago White Sox
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White Sox lefthander John Danks is on track to have his best season since coming into the league in 2007. At 9-7, the 25-year-old is on a pace to surpass his previous high in wins (13) and his ERA of 3.58 is the second lowest mark of his career, while his WHIP of 1.169 is a personal best. The M's will send second-year righthander Doug Fister to the mound for his 15th start of the season and while Fister has an overall ERA of 3.50, he is just 3-5, and his last trip to the mound was Fister's worst start of the season, as he gave up six runs on 12 hits in just 5 2/3 innings against the Los Angels Angels in Anaheim. With that loss, Fister is now winless in his last seven starts going all the way back to May 14, while the team has only won one of his last five starts. Danks is having the opposite experience as he and his team are both 5-2 in his last seven starts. Chicago is one of the hottest teams in baseball at 26-8 in its last 34 games, while Seattle is 1-8 in its last nine home games overall and 2-10 in its last 12 games overall. Take the White Sox.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
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After last night's marathon loss, and after coming off a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians in their first series after the break, I believe there is excellent value on the Tigers in this situation:

Tommy Hunter goes for the visitors; there aren't many negatives that you can say about Hunter; he's a perfect 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA.
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Keep in mind though, Texas is just 1-11 its last 12 on the road vs. the Tigers.

In the other dugout: Armando Galarraga heads to the hill for the home side; Galarraga is coming off a successful stint in the minors and has a big opportunity tonight to cement his place in the majors.
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He threw three scoreless innings of relief on Friday night; he had a decent 3.21 ERA in two starts against the Rangers last season.

And remember, despite yesterday's loss, Detroit remains 17-4 its last 21 in front of the home town crowd.
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Bottom line: Detroit is a different team at home (32-14) and will be desperate as it looks to avoid its first seven-game losing streak in more than two years.
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Texas has been hot, but I expect a letdown here; when taking the rest of the above factors into consideration, you may want to take a second look at the Detroit Tigers tonight.

MATT FARGO
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New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: New York Mets
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The Mets were blown out last night in the opener of this series as Mike Pelfrey once again was hit hard. It was the fourth loss in five games for New York since the All-Star break but it should be able to recover tonight and get the offense moving in the right direction. The Mets have averaged only 2.0 rpg during this five-game stretch but to their credit they have faced some tough pitching. That changes tonight. Arizona snapped a four-game losing streak with the victory last night so it is not playing much better right now. The difference is that the Diamondbacks has been struggling all season long and they have won consecutive games only once since mid-June and three times since the end of May. They are 15-34 over their last 49 games since winning a season-high four straight games from May 19-22. R.A. Dickey looks to stop the bleeding and he has done a phenomenal job this season for someone whose expectations were very low. He has a 2.62 ERA on the season and in 11 starts, he has thrown nine quality outings so he is obviously keeping the Mets around most of the time. He is winless in his last four starts which is far from his fault as run support have been the biggest issue but he should be able to get some tonight. Barry Enright will be making his fourth start of the season tonight and while the previous three have been decent, there has been nothing special. He has been unable to go deep into games and that means the Diamondbacks bullpen will come into play. That is not good as the ERA of the pen is 6.70 which is easily the worst in baseball. Arizona is 6-24 against N.L. starters with an Era of 3.50 or better this season while the Mets are 14-4 in their last 18 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 3* New York Mets

Tom Freese
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New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: New York Mets
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Mets knuckle baller R. A. Dickey has allowed 3 runs or less 8 of his 11 starts. New York is 8-2 their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and they are 14-4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Mets are 4-0 with Dickey in his last 4 starts. Arizona starter Barry Enright. Since the he has lost his last 2 starts. The Diamondbacks are 20-43 their last 63 games overall and they are 14-39 their last 53 games as underdogs.

JIM FEIST
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NEW YORK METS / ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
PLAY: NEW YORK METS
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The Mets started the second half of the season losing three of four games at San Francisco. The Mets saw themselves lose ground in the NL East to the Braves. The Mets offense has struggled out of the break, hitting just .198 at San Francisco and getting shut out twice. However, there is some good news for the Mets with the return of infielders Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes return. Arizona hasn't been much better than the Mets, losing four straight out of the break and 10 of 12. They got swept at San Diego, getting outscored by the Padres, 26-10. R.A. Dickey has been very good for the Mets with a 6-3 record, 2.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Dickey has pitched in hard luck of late, allowing just four earned runs over his last 13 2/3 innings, yet suffering the loss in both games because the Mets could muster just two total runs of support. Barry Enright starts for the D'backs with a 1-2 record, 3.45 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The main problem with the Diamondbacks is that they have little bench help or bullpen. They have some good overall starters in the regular lineup, but that's about it. Plus with a pitching staff that is dead last in the NL with a 5.40 ERA. I'm taking the Mets here on Tuesday with Dickey on the hill.

DAVE COKIN
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BOSTON RED SOX / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
PLAY: BOSTON RED SOX
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Dallas Braden shocked the baseball world with his perfect game earlier this season. Ever since, it's been all downhill for the lefty. Braden is 0-5 following the perfecto, and the A's are 0-8 as a team when Braden starts. Now add in the fact that he's just off the DL and prospects for a good night by Braden seem very limited. Tim Wakefield is hardly reliable for the Red Sox. But the old knuckleballer has enjoyed quite a bit of success in this ballpark and while they're still shorthanded with injuries, Boston is the better team and I'm surprised to see them installed as dogs tonight. This looks like an excellent value spot at the price, and I'm backing the Red Sox to get a second straight win against the A's.

EZWINNERS
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Chicago Cubs -236
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The Astros will recall starting pitcher Wesley Wright from AAA Round Rock to start this game against the Cubs. Wright is taking the rotation spot of Felipe Paulino, who suffered a setback during a throwing session on Friday. Wright is nothing to get excited about. He is a boarder line major league pitcher that has AAA stuff. Wright was up with the Astros earlier in the season, but was only used out of the bullpen. Wright has been down Round Rock since June 22 and is 4-0 with a 4.18 ERA in 13 starts season. This is his first major league start of the year and he is 7-7 with a 5.24 ERA in 126 major league games since 2008. Ryan Dempster gets the start for Chicago and he has been pitching very well. Dempster is averaging nearly eight strikeouts per game over his last six starts has a 4-2 record in those games. Dempster has not allowed more than three earned runs in eight straight starts and has a 3.57 ERA on the year. In two starts against the Astros this season Dempster is 1-0 with and ERA of just 2.57 and I look for another solid performance from him in this game. Play on Chicago.

Brad Diamond Sports
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Play Philadelphia + over St. Louis
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The Phillies came up short last night at the Cardinals home run parade short circuited one struggling staff. However, we find cagey lefty Jamie Moyer of Philly coming off a bad outing in Chicago, so we expect a rebounding effort this evening. Philadelphia has won 9 of 12 meetings versus the home standing Birds.

Steve Merril

Indians @ Twins
PICK: Over 9.5
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The Indians have now won five straight games after beating the Twins on Monday night. The two teams will send a pair of struggling pitchers to the mound tonight. Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is 8-5 with a 5.05 ERA in 18 starts this season. He has given up 11 runs and 22 hits in his last 15.3 innings of work. As a whole, the league is hitting Slowey at a .305 clip. In two starts against the Indians, Slowey has given up four runs and 14 hits in 13 innings pitched. Travis Hafner (6-16), Austin Kearns (2-6), and Andy Marte (2-6) all hit him well. Cleveland has scored seven runs or more in three of their last five games. They are hitting over .250 as a unit over their last eight games.
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Cleveland’s Justin Masterson has been horrible on the road. He's 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA in ten starts away from Cleveland. In those games, he has struggle because he puts too many batters on base; his WHIP is 1.90. The righty is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA and a WHIP of 2.00 in four career starts against Minnesota. This season, Masterson has given up nine runs and 15 hits in 11.7 innings pitched to the Twins. Michael Cuddyer (5-13), Orlando Hudson (4-8), Joe Mauer (3-8), Denard Span (4-8), and Jim Thome (2-6) all have good numbers against him. The Twins have gone Over in 8 of their last 11 games. They've pounded out 10 hits or more in 8 of their last 11 games as well. Cleveland sports a bullpen with an ERA near six on the road this season, and since we expect Masterson to struggle, Minnesota should score plenty of runs making this a high-scoring game.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -123
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Seattle had high hopes entering this season, but those hopes have already been crushed just over the halfway mark. The M's have lost 13 of their last 16 games and 8 of their last 9 at home. Seattle brings Fister to the hill tonight, and while he has a low home ERA, I can't overlook the fact that the M's have lost 5 of his last 6 home starts and 7 of his last 8 starts against the AL Central. The Mariners have especially struggled against lefty starters, so facing Danks will be no treat. The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 home games versus a left-handed starter and 6-18 in their last 24 games overall versus a left-handed starter. It is also worth noting that the White Sox are 4-0 in Danks' last 4 starts as a road favorite. The White Sox are now 22-6 in their last 28 games versus a right-handed starter, and I'll side with them tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Houston +2.26 over CHICAGO
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Let’s just say that this line is absolutely ridiculous. Yeah the Cubs can win and yeah they have a big edge on the hill but so what. If the better pitcher won every time out we’d all be rich. Fact is, the Cubbies are a way below average team and can lose to anyone. Hell, they’ve dropped something like 10 of 12 games to the Pirates this year. The Astros are picking it up and have been doing so for the better part of the last six weeks. They’re 22-21 over its last 43 games and overall they just have better players on its club than the Cubbies do. Wesley Wright gets the call up from the minors but he’s no stranger to the majors. He has dominating stuff but his command is a serious problem. In 110 major league innings he’s struck out 111 but he’s walked 62. If he can hit the strike zone he could have a strong game. Ryan Dempster is tough and he’s reliable. He really needs no introduction, as he’ll give the Cubbies a chance to win about 90% of the time. Incidentally, when Dempster starts the Cubs are 8-11 on the year and that’s because the Cubs find ways to lose. So, this has nothing to do with playing against Dempster and everything to do with playing against the Cubs as a sick favorite of –2.43. Play Houston +2.26 (Risking 2 units).

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Cleveland +1.69 over MINNESOTA
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Kevin Slowey a 9-5 favorite over the hot Indians? Another big overlay because Slowey is one of the 10 most hittable pitchers in the game and is not deserving of this billing. Furthermore, he’s been torched in five of his last six starts and his ERA over that stretch is 9.11. To break it down even more, Slowey’s batted balls are probably the most disturbing in all of baseball. He has a groundball rate of 27% and a line drive rate of 22%. Of the 315 hitters that have put the ball in play, 16 have gone yard and only 7% (20 batters) of the 315 have hit the ball softly. His hit-ball stats look like this:

Hard% Med% Soft% Hard Med Soft HR

2009 30% 67% 3% 77 171 8 15

2010 36% 57% 7% 109 170 20 16

Fact is, Slowey is batting practice out there. Meanwhile the Indians have reeled off five wins in a row and this is its second five–game winning streak in less than a month. The Indians have hit .311 and averaged 6.2 runs during its winning streak. Justin Masterson has been a flammable tease for most of the season. That said, he has shown some significant monthly control gains this year. Masterson's approach remains a work-in-progress but there's still a lot of upside here, as he has terrific stuff and he surely has room for error against Slowey. Play: Cleveland +1.69 (Risking 2 units).

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ST. LOUIS –1½ +1.16 over Philadelphia
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The Cards are red-hot while the Phillies continue to struggle miserably and when you throw in this huge pitching mismatch it only makes sense to lay the runs. Jamie Moyer’s age may be finally catching up to him, as he’s allowed 12 hits and 13 runs over his last two starts covering just 8.1 innings. Over that same stretch of two games, he’s allowed 25 flyballs while inducing just eight groundouts and that’s a significant stat. The whole key against Moyer is to get guys on base because when he works from the stretch he’s absolutely brutal. The Phillies have dropped five of its last six games and that includes losing three of four to the Bad News Cubs. Meanwhile, the Cards have won six in a row and they’re seeing beach balls. They’ve scored 36 runs over that six game win streak and that includes beating up Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. Matt Holliday took the night off yesterday, yet the Cards still pounded out eight runs and four jacks. Keep your eye on an outstanding rookie in the line-up by the name of Jon Jay. This guy gets on base and looks incredibly comfortable at the plate. Chris Carpenter had a couple of rough starts prior to his last game but the skills are still elite and he was back to his old self last game out when he dominated the Dodgers. Carpenter has great numbers once again and even better numbers when he pitches at home. Blowout. Play: St. Louis –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).

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KANSAS CITY +1.11 over Toronto
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Jesse Litsch favored on the road is simply incorrect. Here’s a guy that is 0-4 with an ERA of 6.54 and in 31.2 innings has 10 walks and just 12 K’s. Litsch also has surrendered six bombs and in this park that caters to the gaps, Litsch could get into some serious trouble. Then there’s last night’s game. There are losses and then there are ugly losses and that’s precisely what happened last night. The Jays were 3-16 with men in scoring position. They had second and third with one out in the fourth when a flyball to center looked like a sure sac-fly. Instead, Adam Lind tagged and attempted to go to third when the centerfielder gunned him down before the run scored. In the 10th inning the Jays had one run in and no outs with men on first and third and didn’t score again and that same scenario occurred in the seventh. This was an ugly loss indeed and those tend to carry over. Anthony Lerew is an athletic pitcher who was once a top prospect in the Braves system but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the '07 and '08 seasons. Atlanta released him in March '09 and he quickly signed with the Royals. He earned two starts as a September call-up later that year. Lerew has a nice assortment of pitches, including a solid changeup that features splitter-like action. He can run his fastball into the 87-93 mph range and mix in a slider as well. Lerew generally keeps the ball down and induces plenty of groundballs. He’s only walked seven batters while striking out 16 in just 25 innings and in no way is he the inferior pitcher in this game. The Jays have dropped 15 of its last 22 on the road and do not warrant being a favorite in this game. Wrong side favored. Play: Kansas City +1.11 (Risking 2 units).

Sam Martin
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Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Play: Chicago White Sox
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Good spot to fade the Mariners here, who have lost four of their five games since the All-Star break. Chicago isn’t quite as hot as they were prior to the break, but they have won all four games against Seattle this season. Danks had one of those wins, shutting Seattle down to just two runs over eight innings. The White Sox is the better team here. 5* Play on Chicago White Sox.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
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The sportsbooks have this total at 9.5 runs which is way too high! Here at Vegas Experts, we plan on this game ending right at 7 runs. Hunter is on the mound for the Rangers and has been pitching outstanding this season. He has a team start record of 7-1, a 2.39 ERA and 1.163 WHIP this season. On the other side of the matchup, Galarraga starts for the Tigers. He had a few rough starts in his last three games but tends to pitch excellent at home. He has a 2.70 ERA and 1.080 WHIP when playing on his own field. Play on the UNDER
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Play on: The Under

Wunderdog
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Rockies vs. Marlins
Play: Under 9.5
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This game poses some value based on the following. The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the league in run production at five runs a game vs righthand pitching. That number drops considerably to 4.4 runs a game vs leftahnd pitching and even further as they score just 3.7 runs a game in all road games this season. The Marlins score 4.6 runs a game vs righthanders but just 4.1 against lefthanders on the season. We have a situation that shows both teams at their minimal run production, with a total posted that is a full run too high. Just six of Francis' last 26 road starts vs a team with a losing record have topped the total. Going into Monday's game, the last six Marlin games have gone UNDER, producing an average of just four runs a game. I like the UNDER in this one