Marc Lawrence
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NYM (-120) vs ARI
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When the Mets send R.A. Dickey to the hill against the Diamondbacks in Arizona this evening they will do so knowing he is 0-2 in his last two road starts, despite posting a 0.67 ERA in those efforts With the Mets 16-4 in their last 20 games in this park, look for the breaks to go Dickey's way here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.
Tony George
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MIN / CLE Over 10
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Masterson for the Tribe has a 6.75 ERA on the road this season and gets lit up early and often. Conversely the Tribe have been scoring like crazy as of late, hitting well over .250 as a team their last 10 games and banging home 7 runs or more in 3 out of their last 5 games. The Twins starter tonight, Slowly has been allowing opponents over a .300 batting average this season. When you add up all the parts in this one, it looks to be a high scoring game and I like the OVER in this one to come in. I expect a shootout.
Sac Lawson
DET (+113) vs TEX
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It's hard for me to ignore what I saw last night out of this Texas Rangers ball club... They really didn't hit the ball hard. Yes, they had just about 20 hits, but 15 of them were through the infield. The Tigers were victims to a couple base running mistakes, and a couple untimely Double Plays, but aside from that, they showed some muscle and seemed to square things up nicely.
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Obviously you've gotta enjoy a situation where you can grab a team that is 70% at home at plus money, especially knowing that Texas, offensively, is significantly worse on the road... and at the same time, Armando Gallaraga is significantly better at home. Gallaraga also has decent success against Texas in his career, and for the most part, he'll keep the ball low in the zone. Meaning that yesterday's groundball fest should be duplicated again tonight, only this time, I'm expecting Texas to have a little less luck rolling them in between people.
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Can't take much away from Tommy Hunter, he continues to be impressive, that's certainly the case.. But, in his last three games we've seen the oddsmakers move the line against him. To me, it's an indication that he's showing signs of slowing up and/or the scouting report that teams are mounting is becoming more advanced and successful. Either way, it's a clear trend that is forming, and with him facing such an electric home offense, I'm suspecting that this is the time that Vegas got it right. 1 unit on the Tigers!
ARI (+105) vs NYM
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I can't say too many good things about Barry Enright. The kid has truly been impressive since his call-up in June. He's not a hard thrower, but he's a smart kid that's got a plan every time he faces a batter. The Mets are one of the most lethargic offenses in the National League, and they're facing up against an Arizona team that flexed some muscles their last time out.
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Dickey takes the hill for the Mets, and although he's been a success this year, the team certainly hasn't helped him out over his last few starts, turning his quality outings into close losses. One thing that is alarming about Dickey is the amount of errors the team makes behind him. He's a knuckleballer that gets hit semi-hard, and those quick grounders/short hops have given his defense trouble all season. He's got a young crew behind him, remember that. This Arizona team is a club that can absolutely go crazy if you allow them to hit liners. They've got homerun power, but they shoot the gaps well too. Although Arizona doesn't have much experience against knucklers, I actually like their chances tonight.
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When it comes down to it, our starting pitching matchup is actually quite even in my estimation. This is more about fading a team that is terrible on the road, and taking advantage of the fact that the public just thinks Arizona is terrible in general. Arizona 1 unit!
Rocketman
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NY Mets @ Arizona
Play: NY Mets
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NY Mets are 49-44 overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 35-58 overall record on the season. Arizona is 77-107 the past 3 years and 10-24 this year after a win. Arizona has lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Arizona bullpen has a 6.71 ERA overall this year and a 5.91 ERA at home this season. RA Dickey is 6-3 with a 2.62 ERA overall this year, 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA on the road and has a 1.74 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets tonight!
SEAN MURPHY
Rockies @ Marlins
PICK: Over 9.5
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Both of these teams struggled mightily at the plate over the weekend, with the Rockies scoring only four runs in three games in Cincinnati, and the Marlins plating just three runs in a three-game set against Washington.
Both awoke from their slumber on Monday, combining to score 17 runs in a wild, walk-off victory by the Marlins.
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I expect that success at the dish to carry over into Tuesday's contest. Keep in mind, the over is a perfect 4-0 in their four matchups here at Sun Life Stadium dating back to the start of last year, and the Marlins have recorded a 27-19-2 o/u record in this park this season.
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Jeff Francis will get the call for the Rockies. He's been an absolute train wreck lately, allowing 21 hits and 16 earned runs over his last three starts, spanning only 12 innings of work. Not surprisingly, all three of those games flew over the total, with 16, 21, and 16 total runs.
Francis has had a tough time on the road this season, going 1-2 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts. The Marlins are hitting 20 points higher against left-handers than right-handers at home this season, so they won't do him any favors on Tuesday.
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Despite struggling for much of the season, Nate Robertson remains in the Marlins rotation. He's coming off an awful outing against the D'Backs in which he allowed five earned runs over six innings, and the lengthy layoff (he's been idle for the last 10 days) isn't likely to help his case.
Robertson has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts, posting a miserable 7:7 strikeout to walk ratio over that stretch. It's worth noting that the over is 7-1 in his eight starts at Sun Life Stadium this season. He started a game against Colorado back on April 24th and was rocked for five hits and five earned runs in just four innings pitched.
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Not only are both starters struggling, but neither of these bullpens instill much confidence either. It should only be a matter of time before this one busts wide open, and we're getting a reasonable number to work with. Take the over.
LARRY NESS
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Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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The Indians shocked he Tigers with a four-game sweep right after the break and last night extended their winning streak to five games in a row with a 10-4 win over the Twins at Target Field. The Indians may be just 39-54 but they've now recorded two five-game winning streaks in less than a month. That being said, I DON'T like their chances to make it a season-high six-game winning streak tonight. Justin Masterson (3-8, 5.31 ERA) didn't get his first win of 2010 until June 4th, in his 11th start. The Indians had been 2-8 in his first 10 starts of 2010 and going back into last season, had gone 2-15 since his previous win on August 20, a winless stretch of 17 games. Masterson's June 4 win has him 3-3 over his last eight starts (team is 3-5) but note that he's 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA on the road this season in 10 starts (team is 2-8). Going back into last year (again), we find the Indians 3-15 in his away starts! As for Slowey, he was 12-11 (3.99) in 2008 and 10-3 (4.86) in an injury-shortened 2009 season. He's 8-5 (4.95) in 2010 but a closer look shows that Minnesota opened the 2008 season losing Slowey's first three home starts but Slowey closed that season with the Twins winning EIGHT of his last nine home starts. The Twins went 8-2 in his home starts last year and are 6-4 this year, making Minnesota 22-7 (76%) in his last 29 home starts! The price is too high for a big play but it's worth a small one in what I expect will be an easy win for the Twins.
TEDDY COVERS
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New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: New York Mets
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We’ve cashed supporting RA Dickey on numerous occasions during the last two months, taking advantage of the inherent market value when a 35 year old journeyman knuckleballer suddenly turns into a legitimate ace. Dickey’s cashed seven Under tickets in eleven starts (his 2.62 ERA is no accident), allowing two runs or less on all seven of those occasions. At one point, the Mets won six straight times with Dickey on the hill. He’s a very tough matchup for the free swinging D-backs lineup that has struck out 852 times already this season; 125 more K’s than the 29th ranked team.
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Arizona has one other serious Achilles heel besides their strikeout rate – their bullpen. Their 55% save conversion rate and their 6.70 bullpen ERA both rank dead last in the majors by a wide margin. Arizona’s pen has allowed 11 runs in four games since the All Star break, at least one in every contest. That’s bad news with rookie Barry Enright on the hill --- he’s recorded only two outs past the fifth inning in his first three big league starts. Expect a strong bounceback showing from the Mets here following last night’s blowout defeat. 2* Take New York.
Info Plays
3* on Tampa Bay Rays -193
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Reasons the Rays win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start, after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. This is a 61-10 ML System hitting 85.9% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 5-0 this season.
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2.) Baltimore is 0-4 in their last 4 games, getting outscored 6-25. The Rays are 6-1 against Baltimore this season. Over the last 3 seasons, the Rays have won 31 of 43 meetings with the Orioles. Bet Tampa Bay on the road.
Bryan Leonard
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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox send John Danks to the hill knowing they are very likely to get a solid outing. That's all they will need when facing this Seattle offense that has scored more than 4 earned runs just once in their last 10 games. Chicago has taken all 4 meetings this season from the Mariners and the Sox have now won 13 of their last 20 road games. In his career Danks has been solid against the Mariners on the road allowing just 9 earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. His last 2 starts here resulted in back to back single earned run efforts in 8 innings of work. Seattle has dropped 8 of their last 9 home games and Doug Fister has been pounded as of late. He's permitted 23 earned runs in his last 32 innings of work.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -126
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The Rays cruised to an 8-1 win over Baltimore yesterday, and I like their chances again today with Garza on the bump. The Rays have won Garza's last 4 starts, and 3 of those wins have come by 2 or more runs. Plus, Garza has had his way with the O's throughout his career. He is 8-1 lifetime when starting against Baltimore with an ERA of 2.48 and a WHIP of 1.133. 7 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. The Rays have won all 4 meetings in Baltimore this season by an average score of 8-2. We'll take the Rays on the run line tonight.
Steve Janus
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Francisco Giants
I am taking Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants tonight on the road against the Dodgers. The Giant are 4-1 since the All-Star break, and send their ace to the mound tonight against the Dodger's Clayton Kershaw, who is a mediocre 16-21 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Where the Giants are 90-75 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
Craig Trapp
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Looking at this game early in the season not many would have thought it would be for the most wins in the National League. Both of these surprising teams have done it similarly with great pitching, and solid defense. Only difference is ATL has recieved a little more consistent run support. Love Jurrjens since he came back from injury he has gone 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. With a light hitting lineup in SD specially one that struggles on raod look for Jurrjens to dominate going 7 strong scoreless innings. Lebanc goes for SD and his mound appearances have been strong almost all season but over the past month he has got virtually no run support. Also on the road he is not near as sucessful so expect him to go 6 innings and give up 3 runs. ATL wins fairly easily as they contiue their unbelievable home play and try to improve on their 32-12 record.
Mike Lineback
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +120
Big pitching mismatch in Busch Stadium tonight. Moyer has finally come down to earth, after an incredible start to season. He has allowed 13 runs, 5 homeruns his L2 starts, spanning 8.1 innings. And normally, when Moyer loses it, he struggles for extended periods of time. Carpenter, on the other hand, looked very sharp vs. Los Angeles his Lstart, giving up only 1 run, 4 hits, 0 walks, in 8 innings of work. In addition, Carpenter very strong at home. Cards have won 9 of his 11 starts in Busch Stadium. Plus, and very key, the Phillies are struggling, losing 4 of their L5 games overall, and the Cardinals have won 6 straight behind some solid hitting their L5 games (30 runs L5). Like St. Louis on the RL.
Black Widow
1* on Toronto Blue Jays -103
We'll fade Andrew Lerew and the Royals Tuesday. Lerew is 1-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.520 WHIP in 5 starts this year. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 25 innings. The Royals are one team that Toronto starter Jess Litsch loves facing. Litsch is 2-1 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 3 career starts against Kansas City, allowing 3 earned runs in 22.2 innings of work. The Blue Jays are 35-17 in their last 52 games as a favorite. The Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall. Take Toronto on the Money Line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -122
The Keys: The White Sox are 21-5 in their last 26 games following a win, 22-6 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter, 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road favorite and 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the American League West. They are also 4-0 in Danks' last 4 starts as a road favorite. The Mariners are 3-13 in their last 16 overall, 1-8 in their last 9 home games, 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the American League Central and 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Mariners are also 1-7 in Fister's last 8 starts vs. the American League Central. Look for the White Sox to take advantage of the struggling Mariners again tonight.