Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -121
Baltimore is 29-63 this season, scoring 3.6 RPG and allowing 5.3 RPG while getting outscored by 1.7 RPG. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball, and they are getting outscored by 1.9 RPG at home as well. Tampa Bay is the best road team in the big leagues, going 30-16 scoring 5.8 RPG and allowing 3.9 RPG for an average victory of 1.9 RPG. I really like their chances on the Run Line to win this game by 2 runs or more fresh off their 8-1 win over Baltimore last night.
The Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 games, getting outscored 6-25 in the process. Tampa Bay is 6-1 against Baltimore this season, and 31-12 against the Orioles over the last 3 years. Matt Garza has owned this team, going 8-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. Baltimore. The Rays have won 7 of those 10 games by 2 or more runs. Baltimore is 2-17 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games this season, getting outscored by 3.3 RPG in this spot. The Rays are 14-4 against the money line in road games against division opponents this season, winning by 2.6 RPG. The Orioles are 0-10 against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game this season, losing by a whopping 4.5 RPG. Take Tampa on the Run Line Tuesday.
Insider Angles
BOSTON @ OAKLAND
Dallas Braden of the Oakland Athletics is best known for tossing a Perfect Game this season, but he is actually having a solid year that is not reflected by his record, while the veteran Tim Wakefield has been terrible for the Boston Red Sox. Thus, the Athletics look like a sold play at home here at a cheap price.
Braden may be 4-7, but he has a 3.83 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in three straight starts.. His numbers are also slightly better here at Oakland Alameda Coliseum, where he is 3-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and the last time he faced the Red Sox in this stadium, he posted a Quality Start while allowing just two runs on six hits in six innings last year.
Wakefield is a disappointing 3-8 with a 5.65 ERA, and the worst part is that he is not showing any signs of improvement. He lasted only two innings his last time out vs. Texas, allowing seven runs (six earned) on eight hits, and that came on the heels of another poor effort in his prior outing, where he was charged with six earned runs while allowing 10 baserunners in 5.2 innings vs. the Tampa Bay Rays.
Keep in mind also that the Red Sox are using a makeshift lineup these days, with the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell all on the Disabled List. As a result, the Sox are batting an un-Sox-like .239 over their last 10 games while going just 3-7.
Look for Boston to continue to struggle vs. Braden on Tuesday as Oakland gets the home victory.
Pick: Athletics -115
Matt Rivers
Boston is a beat up team that is a complete shell of itself but I still don't mind them in this spot. Let's be honest here, this Oakland team is as mediocre as they get. The A's are an extremely average team with a pitcher in Dallas Braden who has done less than nothing since the perfect game.
Don't get me wrong, I don't mind the Oakland lefthander because he has good stuff and certainly can dominate when on. But lately Braden has been injured and not nearly as good. The guy hasn't been on a big league mound in a month and frankly I'm not sure what he can do right now. I don't see him lasting all that long as the A's coaches have to be very careful with him after the recent issues and therefore even if he is alright we should see a lot of a mediocre Oakland bullpen.
Tim Wakefield and that knuckleball have been awful of late. The last two starts have been debacles but I'm really not all that concerned about it because the guy has been there and done that and at the drop of a hat can be good. 12 earned runs in seven innings would concern me a lot more with almost any other pitcher but Wakefield could all of a sudden twirl a gem with his style and it would not surprise me in the least. That knuckleball will be awful and then will all of a sudden be unhittable just like that. There really is no rhyme or reason with that pitch so laying a lot with it is silly but getting it in a decent enough spot isn't bad.
Duston Pedroia is not playing obviously but the Red Sox still have some big boppers in Ortiz and Youkilis and in the end here should be alright. In a bottom of a barrel comp play I'll back the visitors from Beantown here in OakTown.
Pick: Boston +106
O.C. Dooley
Mets / Diamondbacks Under 9.5
The bottom line is that we have a pair of impressive starters on the mound this evening including knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (2.63 ERA) of the Mets. The last time Dickey was on the mound he was on the losing end of a very low scoring 2-0 contest against two-time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum. Odds are that Dickey will not receive much run support again this evening since the Mets offense continues to be in a prolonged slump. In the past nine games New York has crossed the plate a grand total of only 16 times. In the past month the Metropolitans have averaged only 3.8 runs per contest. One would have thought the Mets attack would have broken loose last night as 3 veterans (Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo) were on the field together for the first time in more than one solid year. On the mound for Arizona this evening is the relatively unknown Barry Enright (3.54 ERA) who has racked up an impressive 13 STRIKEOUT victims in just 15.2 innings of work. Last night’s opener of this series featured a wild 13-2 final verdict which opens the door to an interesting angle from my database research. In the past two years the Mets are a resounding 20-6 UNDER after a game where a combined 15+ runs were scored