Rocketman
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs are 47-44 on the season while Philadelphia comes in with a 52-38 record this year. Chicago Cubs are 2-9 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Cubs are 301-341 -91.7 units since 1997 when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Philadelphia is 13-3 in July this year. Phillies have won 9 games in a row heading into tonight. Cubs are scoring only 3.9 runs per game on the road this year. Phillies are scoring 5.4 runs per game overall this year and 5.3 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Rich Harden is 1-2 with a 7.62 ERA his last 3 starts. Joe Blanton is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!
ALEX SMART
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New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
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John Lannan (6-7,3.64 ERA) continues to give the Nationals top tier performances , and deserves to have a much better record than he has garnered to this point in the season. A lack of offensive support form his team mates has kept him from bigger and greater things. It must be noted that the southpaw has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his last 17 starts, and I expect another top notch effort from him again in this spot. Lannan and the Nationals will get a break tonight, as they face struggling Mets left-hander Oliver Perez (2-2, 7.99 ERA) who has already spent two months on the disabled list with tendinitis in his right knee. His night mare season Im betting continues this evening vs Nationals team he has struggled against in his career, as is evident by recording a ugly 7.53 ERA while allowing 72 baserunners in 40 2/3 innings of work. Injury update, Mets are expected to continue to be without the core of their batting order , as Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran , Jose Reyes remain on the disabled list.... Play on the Nationals
Freddy Wills
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Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Take Red Sox
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I love the Red Sox here tonight off a loss they are 11-4 in their last 15 following a loss. With nobody better than Josh Becket following a loss on the mound tonight. Texas has a .239 average against Beckett and Beckett has made two starts in Texas and carries a 0.75ERA in Arlington. Boston is 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 24-9 in his last 33 as a road favorite. He will face Tommy Hunter here tonight.
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Hunter in my opinion will get exposed here soon as he's making just his 5th start he's got good numbers no question, but 3 of the 4 teams he has faced are at the bottom of the league in hitting. You've got TB 4th, but then you have SEA 15th, OAK 28th, and SD 30th (last). He has one start against Boston last year where he could not get out of the 2nd inning he went 1.2IP 7H, 9ER. Expect Boston to win here tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -119
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I like the Rays in this bounce back spot with Jeff Niemann on the hill tonight. Niemann has been fantastic for the Rays this season and has even dialed it up a notch of late. The Rays are 12-4 in his 16 starts in 2009 and they are a perfect 3-0 over his last 3, during which he has posted an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.082. In fact, the Rays are 10-1 in Niemann's last 11 starts, 8-1 in his last 9 road starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. The Sox send Richard to the hill and I expect his struggled to continue against a lethal Tampa Bay lineup. Richard has an ERA of 7.59 at home this season and an even larger ERA of 11.81 over his last 3 starts. I'll back the Rays here as they send the better hurler to the mound.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -123
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After 17 straight wins against the Bucs, the Brew Crew finally fell to Pittsburgh last night. I fully expect the Brewers to get right back in the win column against their division rivals tonight behind the 8-4 Braden Looper. The Brewers are 4-0 in Looper's last 4 starts vs. the National League Central and Looper is 13-5 against the money line in road games when pitching against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. The Pirates are just 19-45 in their last 64 vs. the National League Central and 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Fade the Bucs tonight.
Evan Altemus
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Boston at Texas
Play: TEXAS
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This game is a great opportunity to get Texas at a big underdog price. Josh Beckett has no doubt been dominant lately, but I expect him to have a letdown performance here. His performance has been much better at home than on the road this year. He gave up 7 runs at Philadelphia and 5 runs at Baltimore in his last 3 road starts. Beckett has no real motivation to get up for this game, which may prove important in the Texas heat. Texas' stadium is a tough place to pitch if you aren't motivated because of the power line-up that the Rangers have as well as the high temperatures. Texas got a win against Boston on Monday night, so they will bring some momentum into this game. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Tommy Hunter has been pitching better and better this season, and I look for him to be very motivated to pitch against the Red Sox. Boston is only hitting .240 against righties on the road this season, including a recent hitting slump on their current road trip. Take Texas as a large home underdog.
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1 UNIT SELECTION
VEGAS EXPERTS
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New York Mets at Washington Nationals
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The New York Mets and Washington Nationals have gone UNDER the total in eight of their last nine meetings, including four straight in Washington this season. Washington starter John Lannan pitched a complete game the last time he faced the Mets in a 7-1 victory. Following a loss this season, Lannan has gone UNDER in 10 of 12 games as well as 14 of his 19 starts this season. Go with the UNDER.
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Play on: UNDER
THE SPREAD
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, 5:00PM ET
LA Angels are 6-1-1 SU in their last 8 games
LA Angels are 6-1-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-17-1 SU in their last 23 games when playing at home against LA Angels
Kansas City is 1-6-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Angels
Pick: Kansas City
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies, 7:05PM ET
Chi Cubs are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Chi Cubs's last 23 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Chi Cubs
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pick: Chicago
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07PM ET
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pick: Toronto
Wunderdog
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Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -120
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The Phillies have gotten to the point where they have to almost be considered an automatic play-on right now. They have now won 13 of their last 14, which includes nine straight wins. The Phillies have been dominated with both their bats and their pitching staff as they have allowed just two runs or less in 10 of the 14 games, and one run or less in six of the 14, while the offense has exploded for 7.2 runs per game. Rich Harden is a top-of-the-staff pitcher for the Cubs, but he has had a bad season start to finish, and has been giving up the longball with high frequency. The Cubs are just 16-41 as a dog of +110 to +150 in their last 57, so you have to go with the scorching hot Phillies here.
Yankee Capper
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Milwaukee Brewers -125
Chicago White Sox +110
Toronto Blue Jays (E)
Mike Rose
Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox
The Rays have flat out gotten the job done in a majority of rookie Jeff Niemann’s starts in ’09. They carry a 12-4 overall mark the 16 times he’s taken to the bump, and they’re a very impressive 8-2 in his 10 road starts. The lengthy righty is 8-4 on the year with a 3.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with a K/BB ratio of 52/38 through 91.2 total innings of work. He tossed the second shutout of his career against Toronto in his start before the All Star break, and Tampa Bay has won five of his L/6 road starts. He’s been hit well by the ChiSox in his career (14 hits in 2 starts), but has only surrendered a total of three earned runs.
After picking up his third victory of the year against Cliff Lee and the Indians back on June 30th, Clayton Richard has been atrocious getting blasted for 12 hits and 10 combined ER’s while lasting just 4.2 total innings his L/2 starts. The southpaw knows he must perform in this outing or else he might be relegated back to the bullpen. He’ll be making his 13th start of the season on more than 10 days rest, and will be making his first career start against the Rays (didn’t give up a run in two relief appearances).
The Rays didn’t have many chances to do what they do best last night, so look for a more conscious effort from their speedsters to try and get on base early at all costs. Richard can be taken advantage of normally, but the added pressure of working under the scrutinizing eyes of his coaching staff will make it that much harder. Throw in the fact that Tampa excels with Niemann on the road, and you’ve got a nice recipe for a Rays high scoring road victory in this spot. We’re going against a pair of $$$-making trends that have recently developed in this series (TBY 7-17 L/24 in Chicago & Under is 18-7 L/25), but this looks to be as good a spot as any for Tampa and the Over to cash.
Pick: Rays / Sox Over 10
John Ryan
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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: Baltimore Orioles
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baltimore as they face the NYY set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-22 making 35 units since 1997. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start and has struggled at times sporting an ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts. The average play has been a +158.3 dog. Baltimore starter Hill has had an erratic season, but is 8-1 (+7.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. Yankees are 9-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. On June 19th, Hill seemed to have things well under control having defeated the Phillies at Citizen’s Bank Park allowing just 2 ER in 6.7 IP. He uses a curve ball quite effectively throwing it 27% of the time overall, 36% with 2 strikes, and 38% when ahead in the count. His biggest problem was relying far too much on his FB (81% of the time) when behind in the count. He has now changed that percentage and has very good confidence throwing the curve at anytime in the count. Look for him to keep the Yankee hitters guessing and guessing wrong. Take Baltimore.
Michael Cannon
Tampa Bay -120 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Take the Rays for the road win over the White Sox.
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Tampa Bay will start Jeff Niemann, who is 8-4 with a 3.73 ERA on the year. The rookie is 6-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his last 10 starts, nine of which the Rays won.
The White Sox will counter with a rookie of their own in Clayton Richard. But he hasn’t enjoyed the same success that Niemann has. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 5.42 ERA on the year and his hold on a rotation spot appears to be in jeopardy.
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I just like Tampa’s chances of making a run in the second half of the season and these are the types of games they have to win if they are going to do so.
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Take the Rays as they grab the road win.
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2♦ TAMPA BAY
Drew Gordon
Florida -120 at SAN DIEGO
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Now on a 28-17 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the Rockies over the Diamondbacks 10-6 Monday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Florida/San Diego match up.
Good spot for the Marlins and Chris Volstad, as they try and build off Monday's 3-2 win in the series opener. Got to like the Marlins righty to bounce back after a rough start against the powerhouse Phillies in his last one, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings Thursday. Not only will he obviously benefit from facing a MUCH less potent Padres lineup this time around, but he's also pitched better on the road, going 3-3 with a solid 3.81 ERA away this season!
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Speaking of the offenses, did you know the Padres have scored 3 runs or less in 10 of their L11 games?! While the Marlins haven't exactly been "hot" either, the truth is, they still average 4.5 runs per game against righties on the road, whereas the Padres muster a meager 3.2 in that spot at Petco! Sorry Padres-backers, but Volstad has been too good on the road to look any other way, just ask the Giants (complete game shutout, allowing 5 hits July 8th)!
Finally, there's Chad Gaudin, who has pitched well over his last 2 starts, but that's hardly enough to convince me otherwise. A couple issues I have with the Padres righty: A. He's 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA at Petco this season, not exactly numbers that inspire confience! And B. He's 2-2 with an ugly 5.56 ERA in 7 career gmaes (1 start) against Florida. In the end, the way the Padres are producing right now (next-to-nothing), Gaudin will have to be perfect in this spot to get it done, and that's simply not going to happen. Coupled with a motivated Volstad, who's looking to redeem himself after a sub-par effort in his last one, and you've got all the makings of a solid Marlins win here.
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Take Florida behind Volstad over San Diego and Gaudin in this match up.
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3♦ FLORIDA