Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, July 23

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

When Jon Lester toes the slab against Roberto Hernandez and the Rays at Fenway Tuesday evening, the left-hander will do so knowing his 7-0 team start mark with a 2.96 ERA in this park in more than 2.5 runs per game lower than his 2-8 road start mark with a 5.61 road ERA this season. On the flip side, Tampa's Hernandez is 2-7 at night and 2-6 against the AL East in his team starts this season. With that we recommend a 1-unit play on Boston.

Steve Merril

Oakland vs. Houston
Play: Under 8½

The Astros host the Athletics on Tuesday night as Jarred Cosart makes his second Major League start for Houston. The righty beat the Rays back on July 12th after giving up just two hits and three walks while striking out two. Cosart will face an Oakland lineup that will most likely be without Yoenis Cespedes again as he works his way back from injury. Oakland is hitting just .190 while scoring only 2.7 runs per game over their last seven games.

Jarrod Parker is in tremendous current form. He has a 2.12 ERA and 0.77 WHIP while allowing just 5 runs and 10 hits in his last three starts. Parker has not surrendered more than 3 runs in a start since May 6th. Houston’s offense has been a bit weak as of late. They are hitting .235 while scoring 3.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. Oakland’s bullpen has been stellar as a unit posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season. We expect Parker and Cosart to hold down the struggling offenses which will result in a low-scoring game.

Jimmy Boyd

Boston Red Sox -152

Roberto Hernandez is just 1-6 on the road this season and he has a 5.74 ERA. In his eight road games he has allowed 9 home runs and 30 earned runs. Those are not numbers you want to see from your starting pitcher before facing an offense like Boston's. The Red Sox have a .290 batting average at home this season and they are scoring 5.2 runs per game.

Tampa Bay's offense has struggled on the road with a .258 batting average, a number substantially lower than Boston's. They also have to face Red Sox ace Jon Lester. In his seven home starts this year the Red Sox are 7-0 and Lester has a 2.96 ERA. The Red Sox should have no problems getting off to an early lead against Hernandez and I don't think they will ever look back once they do.

Matt Fargo

Houston Astros +158

The Astros had a golden opportunity to snap their five-game losing streak last night as they had a 3-0 lead going into the sixth inning but allowed four runs down the stretch to extend their skid to six games. We were on the wrong side of that unfortunately but we will back them again tonight with a smaller play. The pitching has been good for the majority of the time with the exception of a couple bad games and I expect the good side to continue tonight. Top prospect Jarred Cosart will be making just his second start of his career and if his first outing was any indication of how things are going to be, the Astros have a star on their hands. He faced the Rays on July 10th and took a no hitter into the seventh inning and eventually allowed just two hits and no runs in eight innings of work. This came after a great run at Oklahoma City where he went 7-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 93 innings over 18 starts. Look for a strong home debut. The A's made it 10 straight wins over Houston after last night's come-from-behind win but it certainly wasn't easy and it will not be easy again tonight despite Jarrod Parker taking the hill. After a slow start to the season, he has been outstanding as he has a Major League-best 0.83 WHIP in his last 11 starts. He is not getting the wins though as he has only four as his offense has scored two runs or fewer in six of those 11 outings and Oakland is averaging just 3.3 rpg in his 19 starts overall. The A's have dropped his last four starts and are 4-5 in his nine road starts on the season.

Ray Monohan

Pittsburgh Pirates +105

Pittsburgh took the opener of this important series of potential Wild Card participants. In Game 2 they have a nice advantage on the mound with Gerrit Cole, the rookie phenom. Pittsburgh won Cole’s first 4 starts but then lost the next 3. When you study the game logs though they have all been about the same as Cole has yet to give up more than 3ERs in any start yet. This is just his second start on the road and he will be at Washington against Taylor Jordan, who has made 4 starts this season and has yet to win again. Cole has a high ceiling and we may get a glimpse tonight. Jordan, not nearly as much and the league is hitting better than .300 against him so far.

Jeffrey Brandes

New York Mets +120

Pitchers:
ATLANTA BRAVES: KRIS MEDLEN (R) ERA: 3.64 W/L 6-9
NEW YORK METS: CARLOS TORRES (R) ERA: 0.79 W/L 0-1

I'm using the "eyes no lies" system here. I've been watching Carlos Torres for the Mets and he is definately flying under the radar. A 0.79 ERA won't be a secret after this game. It looks like he has the goods to be a solid starter. He broke into the rotation when Shaun Markham went down. After pitching long in the bullpen, he broke through because he was lights out solid. In his first start. Torres gave up just one run on five hits over five innings against Pittsburgh.

Kris Medlen is 1-2 with a worse than Hammels ERA of 7.63 in his last three starts. I'm going to rep my Mets cap and root root root for the home team in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +103

The Cardinals fit a 16-2 system here tonight that plays on home teams that are off a 1 run home favored win at -200 or higher if they scored 4 or less runs and are playing a team that was on the road in their last game. St. Louis is 12-1 the last 3 years as a home favorite off a 1 run home favored win and scored 4 or less. The Phillies are 0-5 this season as a road dog from +150 to +175. Shelby Miller makes the start for St. Louis and he is 8-2 at home with a 1.93 home era. In those 10 home starts 6 times he has NOT allowed a single run. J. Pettibone goes for the Phillies and he has a 5.64 road era while losing 3 of his last 4 road starts. In those 4 starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 19 innings. Based on all of the above we will recommend a run line play on St. Louis.

Steve Janus

Atlanta Braves -133

Atlanta's Kris Medlen has not had the kind of season everyone expected, as he's just 6-9 with a 3.64 ERA over 19 starts, but I'm confident he will rebound from two shaky starts vs the Phillies and Reds with a dominant performance tonight at New York. Some pitchers for whatever reason dominate certain opponents and for Medlen he's owned the Mets, going 4-0 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 7 starts (all Atlanta wins). In another key is Medlen has a very respectable 2.85 ERA in night games this season. In fact, he's 29-8 over his last 37 starts at night and a dominate 19-3 over his last 22 starts vs division opponents. As you can see, there is clearly some value here on Atlanta.

The Mets will counter with Carlos Torres, who pitched very well in his first start of 2013, limiting the Pirates to just 1 run on 5 hits over 5 innings. Not to take anything away from Torres, but the Pirates aren't exactly hitting the cover off the baseball this season. I expect him to have a lot more trouble against a potent Atlanta offense. The other thing is that Torres hasn't been stretched out enough to go deep into the game, which should allow the Braves to add on some runs late against a Mets bullpen that has a 4.17 ERA and 1.342 WHIP at home (4.04 ERA and 1.367 WHIP overall).

Dave Price

Colorado Rockies -155

The Marlins have been the bad news bears on the road where they have dropped 43 of their last 58. They got the Rockies Monday but will have a tough time pulling off a repeat performance against a club that's 5-0 in its last five games following a loss. Miami's Jose Fernandez is having a nice season, but he hasn't been as sharp on the road where he's 2-5 with a 4.17 ERA. When he has pitched well on the road, he hasn't received much support from an offense that's batting just .226 and scoring only 3.0 runs per game away from South Beach. The Rockies are 6-1 in Jhoulys Chacin's last seven starts and 4-0 in his last four home starts. They've won 8 of his 11 home starts on the season. Chacin has a respectable 3.50 ERA in all starts and will be supported tonight by an offense that is batting .280 and scoring 5.1 runs per game at Coors Field. Take Colorado.

Alex Smart

Los Angeles Dodgers -102

The LA Dodgers are now playing their best baseball of the season .Meanwhile their host for this interleague tilt the Toronto Blue Jays continue to be solid under achievers despite of the preseason hype. These are two teams that currently performing at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum.

With that said, there is value with riding a surging Dodgers team and near peak form. The Dodgers have won 21 of their L/26 overall including 6 straight on the road in a value line position and are 11-1 in their L/12 vs a righty like Todd Redmond.. It must also be noted that the Jays have lost 7 straight at home vs a .500 or better team.

Freddy Wills

Detroit Tigers -129

I'll take Rick Porcello on the road in this spot. Not only is he on fire posting a 2.84 ERA over his last three starts combined, but he was long due for some good luck as he posts a 3.06 xFIP. His raw stats are off the carts with 7+ K's per 9 and less than 2 BB's per 9. He has a .317 BABIP and a 65.4% left on base percentage, but facing a poor hitting team like the White Sox should change those numbers. The White Sox are 23rd in OPS vs. RHP on the year and Porcello has a 2.78 ERA in his last 8 starts vs. the White Sox. Porcello has also been at his best against divisional opponents going 30-12 in the last 42 vs. AL Central.

On the other side is Hector Santiago who has a 3.30 ERA despite walking more than 4 guys per 9 innings. Meaning he's been lucky and facing a Tigers team that's 2nd in OPS vs. LHP is not going to help him. If he lets guys on the base the Tigers will take advantage and that's exactly what I'm expecting. The Tigers also have the bullpen advantage in this one and are 35-17 in their last 52 meetings with the White Sox.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Alexi Ogando (3-0, 17.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)
Jarrod Parker (0-3, 17 IP, 0.76 WHIP, 2.12 ERA)
Jonathan Pettibone (2-1, 19 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Hector Santiago (0-3, 19.2 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 2.29 ERA)
Jose Fernandez (2-1, 20 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 1.80 ERA)
Travis Wood (1-2, 18.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Tony Cingrani (2-1, 16.2 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Kris Medlen (1-2, 15.1 IP, 2.09 WHIP, 7.63 ERA)
Shelby Miller (2-1, 12.2 IP, 1.97 WHIP, 7.11 ERA)
Barry Zito 0-3, 12 IP, 2.08 WHIP, 7.50 ERA)
Kyle Gibson (1-2, 16.1 IP, 1.78 WHIP, 7.71 ERA)
Tommy Hanson (3-0, 13.1 IP, 1.88 WHIP, 7.42 ERA)
Zach McCallister (1-2, 14.2 IP, 2.05 WHIP, 6.14 ERA)
Chris Capuano (1-2, 14.1 IP, 1.74 WHIP, 6.28 ERA)

Steve Rosen

Los Angeles Dodgers -102

The Dodgers do it again! And tonight will be no different. Capuano has been either a stud or a dud. But i expect tonights game for the studness to come out. Capuano has allowed fewer than two earned runs in five of his last 10 starts, on top of that he has the hitting of the Dodgers to back him. As we saw last night the bats will be swinging and going against Redmond will be a easy day in the park.

Art Aronson

Chicago vs. Arizona
Play: Under 8

Travis Wood (6-6, 2.79 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Wood is coming off his first poor start in his last eight outings, giving up three runs over five innings in a setback to the Cardinals last Sunday. Wood actually leads the majors with 17 quality starts though and will take his very respectable 2.91 ERA road record into Arizona to throw opposite Patrick Corbin (11-1, 2.35 ERA) who dominated the Brewers in his final start of the first half, giving up a single run on seven hits with two walks while striking out 11 over 6 2/3's innings in his teams eventual 2-1 victory. The well rested All-Star will now look to improve upon his perfect 7-0, 1.54 ERA home record. With these two proven and capable starters battling it out in the second game of this four game set, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring affair; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Bruce Marshall

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Minnesota Twins

The Angels are floundering once again, that brief spark of two wins out of the All-Star break against the A's now a thing of the past with back-to-back losses to Oakland and Minnesota the past two days. Treading water as usual this season, the Halos run into a familiar problem tonight with Tommy Hanson due to return to the mound and active duty for the first time in a month since suffering a right forearm strain. Hanson's season-long numbers, however, identify what has been a weak spot in the Angel rotation, as his 6.16 home ERA would attest. Meanwhile, Minnesota is scrapping admirably since the All-Star break with three wins in four tries, and Tuesday rookie starter Kyle Gibson has shown improvement in recent starts, pitching five decent innings in his last outing against the Yankees on July 14.