Jesse Schule
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Miami Marlins =1.5
After being held scoreless in a three game sweep at the hands of the Brewers, the Fish took the series opener versus the Rockies at Coors Field last night. Miami will send their ace Jose Fernandez to the mound in Game 2, making his first appearance since the All Star Game. Fernandez (5-5, 2.75 ERA) worked a perfect inning in the Midsummer Classic, striking out two of the three batters he faced. The 20 year old has been sharp in recent outings, with only one loss in his last four starts, and that was a close 3-2 ballgame in St. Louis. He's posted a miniscule 1.72 ERA over his last seven starts, and he's facing a Rockies team that has struggled at the plate in recent weeks. Colorado will hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, who has been excellent this year. Chacin (9-4, 3.50 ERA) allowed a single run on six hits over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Dodgers his last time out. He did walk three batters in that game, and he's given out 11 free passes in his last four starts. Chacin doesn't have good numbers against Miami in previous meetings, with a record of 0-3, 9.00 ERA. These Marlins have the worst record in the majors, and they rank last in almost all offensive categories. Don't let that fool you though, they are still well above .500 since Giancarlo Stanton returned to the lineup in June. I like the Fish to keep this one close tonight with their young dynamo on the mound.
Jim Feist
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Cleveland Indians
Seattle has a weak offense and is forced to go with Erasmo Ramirez (13.50 ERA), who has walked 4 in 4 innings. You can't have success at this level if you don't throw strikes. He had an ugly debut against the Red Sox last week. Ramirez, who was called up from Triple-A Tacoma, allowed a leadoff solo home run to Jacoby Ellsbury. He also surrendered three runs in the fourth and fifth innings. He faces a terrific Cleveland offense, a team in a pennant race with a fine offense, Top 5 in runs scored and on base percentage. Starter Zach McAllister (3.43 ERA) is very good and knows how to throw strikes. And the Indians are 24-8 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.
Bryan Power
Atlanta vs. NY Mets
Pick: Atlanta
After surprisingly dropping two of three over the weekend to the last place White Sox, one would expect the first place Braves to bounce back at the start of the week against the sorry Mets. It started last night w/ a 2-1 victory and I expect it to continue tonight behind Kris Medlen. Take the road team in this one.
Atlanta scored both of its runs last night in the top of the ninth, then got a game saving catch from Jason Heyward in the bottom half of the inning to preserve the victory. Tonight should be easier. After B2B poor outings, Medlen should bounce back here against a Mets team that he's 4-0 against w/ a 2.36 ERA in seven career starts. His team start record is a perfect 7-0 and that includes a pair of victories here in 2013 where he's struck out 16 batters in 13 innings. The Mets had only five hits last night and are averaging just 3.6 runs per game for the year at Citi Field.
Last night's result does not set up the Mets well at all as they are 1-8 this season following a game where they both scored and allowed three runs or less. Considering how much better Atlanta is, I feel they are a good value at this price.
Will Rogers
NY Yankees vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
Yesterday, I said to expect the Rangers to bounce back from a bad weekend, and bounce back they did with a 3-0 shutout victory over the Yankees. For a second straight day, I will be going with Texas as my free play as I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this series result in a sweep for the home team.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Struggling Yankees Offense - The visitors didn't even get a hit until the fifth inning last night and ended up with only three for the game. It was the fourth time in eight games the Yankees were held to two runs or less (7 times last 12 games!), and this season has seen the club go 2-9 after three straight homerless games. Also, over the last two years, they are 4-12 following two straight games where they had 1 or 0 extra base hits. They have just four homers the last 16 games.
2. Alexi Ogando - The righty makes his return from a stint on the disabled list tonight. Before going on the DL, Ogando had gone 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA his last four starts. For the season, he is 4-2 in 10 starts with a 2.93 ERA. His team start record is 7-3, including a perfect 2-0 at home where his ERA 1.59.
3. X-Factor - The Rangers are 6-1 immediately following a shutout win this season.
Wunderdog
Game: Tampa Bay at Boston
Pick: Boston -135
The Tampa Bay Rays have continued their torrid pace, which has seen them go 18-2 over their last 20 games. Boston still leads the AL East, and have a pitching advantage here in this one. Roberto Hernandez has been the weakest link in the Rays' rotation, and has struggled mightily on the road. Hernandez is just 1-6 on the road with a 5.74 ERA on the season. His body of work over the last three seasons shows him at a woeful 12-28. Boston is 31-18 and hasn't dropped two in a row at home since May 12th - more than two months ago. The Rays have dropped five straight behind Hernandez as a road dog, while Boston is 7-0 behind Lester in his last seven home starts. Play on Boston.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +145 over COLORADO
The Rockies continue to struggle at the plate. A close looks reveals that Colorado has scored three runs or less in 15 of its past 23 games. Against career stiff Tom Koehler last night, the Rocks scored once. They’ll now have to deal with Jose Fernandez. Fernandez is a strikeout pitcher with 103 K’s in 105 innings. He’s been off for 10 days and the last time he had seven days rest or more, he threw a three-hitter in six innings. Fernandez has allowed just 10 hits and four runs over his past 20 innings, covering three starts and over that span he's struck out 19 batters. A strikeout pitcher at this venue against a struggling offense is plenty attractive at this price.
The Rockies are heavily favored here because Jhoulys Chacin is 9-4 with a 3.50 ERA. Chacin rebound is fool's gold. Chacin saw his season cut in half by a pectoral injury last year and even when he was on the mound the results were ugly. But his surface numbers indicate a rebound so far this season. Already he's tripled last season's win total and shaved a run off his 2012 ERA. Chacin's skills suggest his comeback could run into trouble. Chacin has improved his control by more than a walk per nine innings but the improved control comes amid further erosion in his strikeout rate, which is far below the benchmark we look for (just 68 K’s in 113 IP). His groundball % has rebounded but that too is trending the wrong way, down to 42% from 47% in his last five starts. Chacin’s very lucky and unsustainable 0.2 % hr/f has helped him outperform his xERA. Chacin is just 25, but his skill set isn't nearly as enticing as it was just a few years ago. In fact, he's transformed into very much of a different pitcher who pitches to contact and relies much more on his defense to record outs. It's worked so far this year but we can expect the HRs to begin departing Coors Field at a greater rate in the second half and his ERA to head north. Chacin’s 28% line-drive rate over his past five starts is also a warning sign that he’s running out of gas. Nice overlay here.
Baltimore -1½ +151 over KANSAS CITY
The Orioles have won five in a row and eight of their past nine, which includes a three-game sweep in Texas after the break followed by an easy 9-2 victory in the opener of this series. The O’s have scored 30 times over their five-game winning streak and should have little trouble getting to Bruce Chen in this one. Chen's 5.09 xERA on a 2.04 ERA is the main red flag. An 88% strand rate has kept the base-runners who contributed to his 1.37 WHIP from scoring. While he's maintained a slightly above average K rate as a reliever this year, he’s never been able to do so as a starter and the walks have started piling up since his May 27th outing. Finally, while he's been mainly a fly-ball pitcher, over the last month he's allowed more line drives than grounders. One only needs to look at Chen’s 23%/34%/43% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile to summarize that he’s about to get pounded. Baltimore leads MLB with a .771 OPS on the road.
Jason Hammel owns a rough 5.24 ERA and 1.44 WHIP after 19 games started. After posting elite skills in 2012, his skills have tanked in 2013. Hammel’s strikeout rate and fastball velocity have regressed and he's no longer able to induce groundballs at a high rate with his sinker. However, he’s showing signs of returning to last year’s form where a newfound sinker and added velocity worked wonders, driving both K rate and groundball rate north before a knee injury derailed him in mid-season. Hammel has had 10 days off since his last start and was outstanding in two of his last four starts before the break. He also has a good history against K.C. batters. This wager, however, is all about fading Chen, a pitcher who has the worst under the surface stats in the game and who makes Barry Zito look like Clayton Kershaw.
Tampa Bay +126 over BOSTON
Jon Lester takes on the hottest team in baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa has won 18 of their last 20 games after taking the opener in this series last night. The Rays also hit left-handed pitching extremely well, as they have a MLB-best .290 BA and .794 OPS against southpaws. Lester faced the Rays on June 11 and May 15. In those two games, Lester was tagged for 16 hits and nine runs in 11.2 innings. Lester has not only labored against the Rays, he’s labored the entire season and he’s getting progressively worse. He’s walking more batters than ever and he has a 4.52 xERA over his last three starts versus Oakland, Seattle and San Diego. Last season, Lester’s second half disaster start % spike was a big red flag. We’re not going to wait around this year for those second half disaster starts before fading this overvalued pitcher. A serviceable, reliable starter, perhaps so but nowhere near the elite one he was in 2010 and prior. Jon Lester is showing signs of a “dead arm”.
Roberto Hernandez has a crazy 21% hr/f with runners on base, the highest mark in that scenario among starters with at least 50 IP. It's the primary reason why Hernandez has a near-5.00 ERA even though his base skills have been elite with a 50% groundball rate and a 25/84 BB/K rate in 108 frames. Hernandez’s best pitch is a change-up that he’s not afraid to use at any time. That could be the key to success here, as the Red Sox have a .115 team batting average against that pitch this season when they have two strikes on them. Hernandez is a solid buy low candidate and he and the Rays absolutely have a great shot to keep this train rolling.
Minnesota +150 over L.A. ANGELS
Ron Gardenhire deserves a medal. That this Twins team is 12 games under .500 with the worst starting pitching staff in the last 40 years is a miracle. The Twinkies record is similar to that of the Blue Jays, Mets, Cubbies and Giants. That’s incredible. Minnesota took the opener last night and at this price against Tommy Hanson, they are very worthy of a bet. A partially torn rotator cuff led to new delivery last year for Hanson, which led to his worst MLB results. A high second half hit rate left his backers with an especially bad taste and nothing has changed this year. Hanson has made just nine starts with only four of those being of good quality. His 1.55 WHIP is awful and his 5.10 ERA is fully supported by his xERA of 5.01. Hanson’s strikeout rate is down, his batted ball profile is a fly-ball biased one, he’s been off for over a month and his ERA at home is 6.16. If pitching through a slightly torn rotator cuff with concurrent strikeout rate loss and control jumps weren't enough to scare you away from backing Tommy Hanson, his awful skills, which have suffered a dramatic decline over the past season-and-a-half should be.
Kyle Gibson is laboring along with a 2-2 record and an unhealthy 6.45 ERA. However, he has far more upside than Hanson, as he’s learning on the job. Gibson is tall (6’6”) and uses his height and arm slot effectively to pitch downhill and keeps his fastball low in the zone. Gibson uses both a two-seam and four-seam fastball that generally work in the 89-94 mph range. He induces tons of groundballs and can effectively pitch to contact and get hitters out early. He also has the ability to wipe out hitters with an above average slider and excellent change-up that features high-quality sink. His biggest obstacle is himself. He has the stuff to do well at this level but he has to believe in himself before he’ll have any success. Gibson has an elite 52% groundball rate and is on the verge of putting together some solid outings. It may not come here but the Twins have won four of five and Gibson taking back a price like this is a far better option than the Angels spotting -160 or more.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Texas/ Yankees Under 9.5: Both teams are having big time struggles at the plate right now and the pitching tonight isn't bad at all. The Rangers have been known for their high scoring offenses, but they come into this game having averaged just 2.3 rpg in their last 9 games. That is not Texas-like offense. The Yankee offense has really sputtered, as all their offensive injuries are catching up to them as they have put up just 3 rpg in their last 7 games and were shutout last night by Yu Darvish and a very good Texas pen. The Yanks offense doesn't figure to look much better tonight vs Alexi Ogando, who is coming off the DL. Alexi has mad just 10 starts this year and has allowed more than 3 ER's just once in those starts. Pretty impressive, since 8 of those starts were on the road. He has made just 2 home starts this year, and has allowed just 1 ER in both. Phil Hughes has pitched really well on the road, posting a 3.38 ERA in 8 starts away from home. Overall he comes in with a 3.07 ERA in his last 4 starts, so he isn't pitching bad at all. I know both starters have struggled vs these teams in their career, but neither offense will get much off these guys tonight as we get another low scoring game in a park where the Under is 32-16-2 on the year.
Arizona/ Chicago Under 8: Going back to the well tonight and use another under play in an Arizona home game, where the Under is 31-15-2 on the year. Arizona home games this year have averaged just 7.79 rpg, while Chicago road games have put up just 7.35 rpg. The Cubs struggle to score on the road, putting up just 3.57 rpg overall and 3.29 rp/9 off of lefties. Tonight they face a tough lefty in Patrick Corbin, who has a skinny 1.54 ERA in 10 home starts this year. Those home starts have averaged just 5.1 rpg this year, while his night starts have averaged 6.58 rpg, compared to 8.14 rpg in his day starts. Travis Wood has had a nice year for the Cubs, with a 2.79 ERA overall. On the road he has a solid 2.91 ERA and just 6.14 rpg have been scored in his road starts. Travis takes on an Arizona offense that is struggling mightily at the plate, averaging just 2.7 rpg and hitting .195 in their last 10 games and while they have hit .220 in their last 5 games, they have put up a mere 1.8 rpg over that stretch. I really feel that the pitching will rule the roost tonight in Arizona.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Colorado Under 9: Nice adjustment by Vegas, but I still see it going under. Neither team can score and much better pitching on the mound tonight.
Milwaukee/ San Diego Under 8.5: The Brewers offense got weaker with the suspension of Braun and they may be without Carlos in this one as well. The Under is 11-1 in their last 12 games and with good pitching on the mound tonight I see that trend continuing.
Bob Balfe
Boston Red Sox -140
Tampa has been straight crushing teams, but they are only average on the road and Lester for Boston is great at home. Again, just like last night Vegas sets lines to get people to jump on the sides they want. I think this is line is high for a reason and it actually is a good line considering all the facts Boston has been struggling to hit the ball, but we know they can hit the ball unlike other teams that struggle to put up runs. Look for the Red Sox to get back on track tonight. Take Boston.
Kyle Hunter
Dodgers -102
The Los Angeles Dodgers are playing as well as anyone in baseball right now. I expected the Dodgers to be solid favorites in this one based on their solid play. Instead we get the Dodgers at essentially even money. Matt Kemp won't play in this one, but the Dodgers still have a very good lineup. Hanley Ramirez isn't getting enough credit for how good he's been in 2013. The Toronto Blue Jays have been overvalued by the oddsmakers all year. Todd Redmond pitches for Toronto in this one, and I don't see him slowing down this red hot Dodgers offense. This Toronto team just doesn't have the chemistry needed to be a consistent winner. Toronto is 0-5 in their last 5 games overall. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 Tuesday games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. They are 10-1 in their last 11 road games against a right handed pitcher. Take the Dodgers.
John Ryan
Detroit at Chicago
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than nine runs will be scored in this game. The CWS have been struggling to generate offense all season. They rank 27th scoring 3.80 RPG, 27th with a -60 run differential, and fifth with a 3.23 RLISP. The fact that they average just that many RISP reflects how few times runners are in that position. Moreover, they are batting just 0.239 and scoring 3.8 RPG in 44 home games this season. Their defense has been solid allowing opponents to hit 0.238 and score 4.4 RPG in home tilts. Detroit has done well on the defensive side allowing opponents a 0.222 team batting average and allowing 2.9 RPG over their last seven contests. Porcello starts for the Tigers and he has posted a strong 2.84 ERA with a 1.263 WHIP over his last three starts. Santiago will be on the hill for the CEWS and has posted a 2.29 ERA with a 0.916 WHIP over his last three starts. He has NO decisions over these last three solid starts reflecting the lack of offensive support. Take the 'UNDER'
Teddy Covers
San Diego vs. Milwaukee
Pick: San Diego
The Brewers came out of the All Star break and swept a series against the Marlins. Don’t be fooled! Milwaukee notched those three wins only because Miami’s anemic offense didn’t plate a single run for the entire series.
The Padres aren’t offensive juggernauts, but unlike Miami, their roster isn’t loaded with a bunch of guys who should still be playing at Triple A. They’ve scored five runs or more three times in four games on their post-All Star break road trip, while averaging just shy of five runs per game in their last seven road tilts. Big middle of the order bats Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin are both heating up right now.
The Brewers won’t have Ryan Braun for the rest of the season, and they’re expected to be without cleanup hitter Carlos Gomez tonight either. With Aramis Ramirez and Cory Hart already sitting, Milwaukee hasn’t been hitting, held to three runs or less seven times in their last ten ballgames. For a last place team with a sub .500 home record; a team that ranks #28 out of 30 MLB teams in profitability this year; the loss of basically every key slugger they have isn’t likely to help matters.
Donovan Hand is an emergency fill-in starter for Ron Roenicke at the back end of the Brewers rotation; not exactly an ace in the making. Hand hasn’t lasted past the fifth inning in any of his previous three big league starts; leaving the door open for a late rally against the Brewers bullpen should we need it. Wrong team favored here! Take San Diego.
Red Dog Sports
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9½
One unit on over 9.5 as the Dodgers have been hitting the ball lately. They scored double digits in last night's win and put up 7 in one inning at Washington on Sunday. Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez are leading a balanced offensive attack and this will be played with a DH. Toronto hits lefties well and should be able to score a few runs to help the over on Tuesday night.
Jeff Alexander
Oakland A's -167
The A's got the Astros again yesterday. Oakland is now 10-0 against Houston this season. Looking back further, the Athletics are 12-0 in the last 12 meetings and 9-0 in the last 9 meetings in Houston. Oakland's Jarrod Parker is the more proven starter in this matchup and has held opponents to 3 earned runs or less in 12 consecutive starts. Houston's Jarred Cosart has made just one start in the majors. It was an impressive one, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Look for the A's to continue their dominance of the Astros.
Tony Bucca
NY Yankees/Texas Rangers Under 9
Home run Hughes is actually pretty good on the road with a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He's even better than that against Texas, 2.08 ERA 0.69 WHIP and the Rangers are hitting .151 against him. Last time out, he went 8inn giving up 2 runs and 5 hits. Ogando, coming off the DL, has shown to be outstanding so far in the majors. At home he has a great 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Another angle is: Yanks on the road have gone under the run total 27 out of 44 games. The Texas Rangers at home have gone under the number 32 out of 48 times.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -135
Tonight's game against the Tampa Bay Rays is for first place in the AL East Division. With the edge the Boston Red Sox have on the mound in this one, I'll back them at a generous price at home Tuesday.
The Red Sox are 33-18 at home this season. Jon Lester has been at his best at home this year, going 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.130 WHIP over seven starts.
I'll gladly fade Tampa Bay's Roberto Hernandez, who is 5-10 with a 4.90 ERA in 18 starts this year. Hernandez has been at his worst on the road, going 1-6 with a 5.74 ERA in eight starts away from home.
Boston is 13-2 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season. The Rays are 3-12 in their last 15 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Tampa Bay is 0-5 in Hernandez's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 games as a home favorite. Boston is 7-0 in Lester's last 7 home starts. Bet the Red Sox Tuesday.